Actually SSlee also working hard on second level thinking with his MGO hopes for insas and bjland.

If you trap because of speculative activities, then it is not investing. Investing is about the business position first and foremost, MGO and goreng assumptions a far away third option.

Try to stay away from things like that and also calvin tan specialty: (ASS)ets. Just because you have a big castle doesn't mean bad management can't gamble it away...

Stick to profitable business first and foremost.
>>>>>>
Sslee Hahahaha,
Icon8888 second level thinking will trap him in EWINT for many years. Buy at the bottom but how to know it already bottom. I bought Bjland below its multiyear low of 19.5 cents hoping for MGO by TSVT also kena trap.
16/12/2019 8:07 PM

If not encourage why keep going to other stock site to keep promote your micro stock? no confidence in your own stocks?

>>>>
calvintaneng Calvin never encourage pump and dump measure

I bought tons at 6.60 and averaged down, now price of pchem is RM6.83,

I didnt sell a single share, did you?

So if didnt sell a single share the share price now go up to RM7.24, your point is?

>>>>>
calvintaneng Posted by (HK1997 again) Philip > Sep 5, 2019 12:06 AM | Report Abuse

Pchem collapsing? Don't make me laugh. 50 billion dollar company with 4.3 billion in revenue and 1.1 billion in profit AFTER TAX and a horde of cash behind it.

I am just enjoying collecting my 11 +18 cents dividend since February when I started buying at 8.15 collecting my 11 +18 cents dividend

SO?

COST OF PURCHASE Rm8.15

Less 29 sen dividend = Rm7.86

Price now Rm6.83

SO REAL LOST OF Rm1.03 PER SHARE

IS THIS PHILIP IN HIS RIGHT MIND?

YOU BETTER DON'T LEAD SORCHAI TO HOLLAND HOR!
05/09/2019 12:14 AM
09/12/2019 11:14 PM

2013.

Ql
Total assets: 2,008,530
Total liabilities:1,048,852
Equity: 960,000
NP to SH: 131.706
ROE: 20.29
Number of shares: 832,260
EPS: 0.115

Has it be growing? Yes, did the share price go up? Yes.

The question of whether or not the price is overvalued or not is academic. Like Ricky yeoh he likes to comment that it is too expensive betc etc while those who held and bought have enjoyed consistent growth year after year.

As earnings and revenue hit all time highs, share price is sure to follow.

The question now is momentum, if the last 5 years track record is growth, it reasonable to assume next 5 years also growth ( but monitor often). If last 5 years is stagnation or deficit, it is reasonable to assume next 5 years also will be deficit ( but monitor often).

As for tguan, as now it is expanding margins and growing volume, it is reasonable to assume next five years to grow its business.

But definitely monitor often.

Just to have decent conversation,

Sslee, can you post the same figures in 2013? To see what happened in five years, and estimate what will happen 5 years from now?

>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Dec 12, 2019 8:59 PM | Report Abuse

Dear all,
Just out of curiosity: What should be the market price of below three share?
ASTRO
Total assets: 6,259,600,000
Total liabilities:5,580,700,000
Equity: 678,900,000
NP to SH: 462,900,000
ROC: 7.40%
ROE: 68.18%
Number of Shares: 5,214,300,000
EPS: 0.09

INSAS
Total assets: 2,338,959,000
Total liabilities: 599,601,000
Equity:1,739,358,000
NP to SH:81,831,000
ROC: 3.5%
ROE: 4.7%
Number of Shares: 663,007,000
EPS:0.123

QL
Total assets:3,683,234,000
Total liabilities: 1,663,699,000
Equity: 2,019,535,000
NP to SH: 216,743,000
ROC: 5.9%
ROE: 10.7%
Number of Shares: 1,622,438,000
EPS: 0.134

Thank you

Hi sslee, market doesn't work mysteriously, every price is based on action.

If you are looking short term, anything goes. Price can go up because of rumours, acquisitions, announcements etc because of market expectations. Basically even the potential of an event happening can cause price to fluctuate. I don't know how to invest in these probabilities.

But if you are looking long term, only those companies where the earnings have been expanding year after year after year will have their share price go up. Not assets, not cash in bank, not receivables and deliverables ( although of course people are not stupid, earnings have to ratio with debt creation and shareholder dilution).

This is why companies like ql and topglove and aeon has increased 10x in market value for past 10 years because the long term earnings growth has steadily increased.

Tguan at its peak of 4.20 was doing 60 million a year in earnings. Now as the earnings start to grow more and the acquisitions grow the share price start to recover back to 2016 levels.

For your insas, in the short term there are those hopes and probabilities of warrants, owners taking over insas for 1.20, increased dividends, wonderful assets etc.

But the fact remains:

Earnings had steadily dropped from 160 million lightning in a bottle when they helped companies to list in 2014 ( and respect for Malaysian companies was high, but thanks to 1mdb it would be hard for foreign investors to invest big Malaysian companies anymore) to today 80 million and steadily dropping.

This is why the share price is stagnant. Everything is hopes and dreams, but nothing concrete. This is like the classic story of waiting for your grandfather to drop dead so you can inherit the farm and sell it for profit, but soon realising the old man going to outlive you. What now brown cow?

The lesson remains: you do not buy a stock for what it has now, you buy a stock for what you think it will have tomorrow. That's the beauty and the excitement of investing.

Too bad WEIDA is no longer listed in Bursa. They have been selected for the 2 nfcp packages 50 million and 200 million for Sabah and Sarawak phase 1.

This remark is purely stupid. This shows you are really just purely academia. If your head is screwed on straight you would have realized that ASTRO has extremely high roc, but it has no obligation to make you money not does it predict long term investors return in any way.

Come on, and if you think real hard you will not buy a single share of ASTRO, as you know that the shares have not moved since forever, you are enjoying fixed deposit rates for a risky business that is going to be a dinosaur when the internet age is here.

And if you look at earnings growth for astro, you know exactly why the share price never recovered from its IPO price of RM 3.

Stay in school kids.


>>>>>>>

Does this refute that earnings growth is the ONLY thing that matters? Does this shows ROC is a better predictor of investors return than earnings growth rate? Does this show investors return can be very different from earnings growth rate?

Not a single stock analysis in your blog btw.

He just wants to sell his members exclusive content and his short skirt guide to stock investing.

Those who can, do.
Those who can't, teach.
Those with no portfolio, and can't even teach.
Try to teach sports.

Come on, can't even do 5 stocks? At least give me so I can start tracking your portfolio performance over a 5 year period.

Instead of how you like to say you made money over this stock and that stock and whatever stock.

At least be brave and put your best foot forward.

I wrote about Pchem ( from 8.33 down to 7.06 but my thesis is completion of PIC in the next 3 years long term will recover to high price) but currently falling flat on my face.

I wrote about gkent( from 1.12 to 0.945 waiting for lrt3 recognition) but enjoying 7% dividends to wait and also falling flat on my face. Fyi I added 500k at 0.95 so a bit about conviction here.

I wrote about PPHB ( from 0.49 in January to 1.06) my brother-in-law who works in Penang for them laughing at me for the pump and dump article I wrote ( waiting for the hotel to complete, which it did, and double earnings in latest q), so semi flat on my face.

I wrote about stoneco ( from 22.19 in January to 38.91), which is my biggest investment, currently laughing to the bank.

These are the 4 stocks I wrote about this year with my perception on why I thought they were a good buy. I am notoriously picky with what I consider good and bad stocks, I argue with icon8888 and Calvin tan often. But I also respect their views and what they bring to the table.

Small concentrated investments.

You I realize have no views, only generic academia which doesn't turn any profit ( or loss)

Specifics: not generics.

Ball is in your court Ricky, try to man up and provide some actual stocks that you buy ( if no money still in school is ok, use imaginary money). Otherwise how else to achieve reputation?

5 stocks.

Yes?


>>>>>>>

https://musingzebra.com/

Ricky, you are full of bullshit that assumes he knows more because he read the philosophies of the great investors without having the skill to apply the knowledge efficiently.

Icon is correct: earnings growth is all the matters.

In fact, I simplify by adding my own triangle:

The only thing that matters in investing is

Earnings and revenue growth over time, while keeping shareholder value intact.

Any company can grow those things, and minimize all the debt, share placements, warrants sales and borrowings to grow earnings, those are most important.

But then again, your blog musingzebra tells a lot about you, all stories, no investments.

Contrast that to someone I do respect:

http://www.intellecpoint.com/p/position.html?m=1

Felicity blog where she buys, explains and clearly defines her quest to grow her children's college fund ( which I love), you can easily see the difference between academics and real world investors.

Stay in school kid. Happy holidays.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by Ricky Yeo > Dec 6, 2019 6:40 AM | Report Abuse

Icon wrote "earning growth...is the only thing that matters"

Supposedly today I meet up with Icon to discuss his statement above. Failing to settle our disagreement (because Ricky is too academic and Icon's ears are oozing blood), we decided to race each other.

On the next day, you saw a few headlines news "Ricky ran 2km, Icon only 1km"; "Ricky beats Icon"; "Survival of the fittest: Ricky prevails" etc.

Now, if you think at a deeper level, those headlines tells you nothing. The distance me and Icon covered says little to nothing about how fit we are. Because no one asked "How long does it take for us to complete those distances?"

If I told you it took me 5 hours to do 2km (400 meter per hour) and 1 hour for Icon to do 1km (1km per hour), does that change your mind about who is fitter?

Similarly, one company can grow 20% and the other only 10%, does it tell you which is better? No. It is meaningless. The question comes down to "How much capital is required to achieve those growth rate?" If a company doesn't need any capital to achieve 10% growth while the other needs to reinvest 100% earnings to achieve 20% growth, which company is better?

And that is what ROC is all about. ROC is not jargon academic shit that Ricky invented. I can give you a dozen of stock all with the same growth rate and you won't have a clue which one is better.

While raider gambles 1m on insas warrants, dato Wong gan kui dumps his shares for cheap at 0.05 cents.

With such a fanatic gambling method, no wonder raider is always so stressed and angry all the time.

Luckily raider has found Jesus and worships his new master Calvin tan who leads him to more gambling stocks.

>>>>>>

thats the reason why raider bought 1m of insas wb at 0.5 sen and raider has started to accumulate the mother now loh....!!

I feel like I should owe Calvin tan an apology. Sometimes the worse thing you want to see when you buy a stock is everyone pointing out your mistake and commenting on your beloved company on a public forum. Especially when you put a big portion of your funds into the company, if the public perception is bad because individuals post bad remarks on the forums, it can lead to anger and revenge and hurt emotions.

......

.............

But then I think again the modus operandi of Calvin tan.

He concentrates on obscure microcaps that he can buy at low prices and promotes it over and over and over and over again to drum up uneducated individuals who buy on his recommendation and suffer for it.

So I rethink my apologies. Because I finally realize how Calvin tan of Singapore business model really works.

As for stockrauder comments that Calvin tan has a 80% hit rate,

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

This is all Calvin tan promoted articles for 2019 and the returns YTD that you would have enjoyed if you followed his recommendations.

It is definitely more than 10 stocks. And the returns are..... I will let you decide for yourself.

YOU CHOOSE TO INVEST IN NETX AT YOUR OWN RISK.

THIS WILL BE MY LAST POST ON BUYING MICROCAPS PROMOTED IN I3 FORUM.

GOOD LUCK.

Don't worry, I won't. Netx has been losing money for years and years and even though got "cash" still goes and gets money from shareholders to fund the business.

If you think netx can get multi billion dollar business, you have another thing coming

>>>>>>>

Lobaking88888888 Poor Philips, you sound like a fund manager but bare in your mind, don't campare Next to Apple or Msft!
09/12/2019 1:39 PM

Funniest thing is, Calvin tan only put 100k into his netx investment which is his biggest shareholding, but he writes promotional material for netx as if there is no tomorrow.

I put 1 million into gkent and I barely even mention it.

My QL shareholding has grown and grown another 11% this year ( despite his comments that my stock is a 50 PE company) and I don't even comment anymore, and it is by far my biggest personal shareholding.

But what to do, Calvin is upset at me for making fun of him making his maybulk, TALAMT, sasbadi promotions, stocks which he held on to for years and losing money.

I remember that Jordan Belfort was also famous for hiring 300 full time stock promoters to get them to buy his penny stocks that he bought at low low prices so he can offload at high prices to his " clients" and adoring public.

The wolf of city harvest church?

This is how you spot a good company in the long term,

1. Find a company that pays out 7% in dividends, and make sure the payout is sustainable ( maximum sound 50% of company profits )
2. make sure the company has already won the multi billion dollar contract ( instead of counting your nfcp chickens before they are hatched). How do you know that the netx microcap is getting any billion dollar contracts ? Can they even pay the bankers guarantee?
3. Make sure the company is profitable ( growing its revenues and profits year by year) and has a growing cash hoard ( 500 million cap company with 200 million cash).
4. Make sure the company has a killer product or service which is highly profitable or entrenched ( gkent water meter won multiyear contract in Hong Kong and Singapore water board beating local and international brands at 28% margin), with a good plan to grow its business into other successful lines ( from water meters to treatment plants to rail systems).
5. Make sure that the intrinsic value is reasonable and the troubles are temporary ( lim Guan eng signed off on 16 billion contract and provided invitation to quote for Penang railway line) and future growth is intact. Guess who is LGE taichi buddy now?
6. Realize and understand that unless a business is consistently making money without need to go back to shareholders to ask for money, it cannot be considered a really business.

Poor Calvin. He tries too hard, falls flat on his face.

06-Dec-2019 06-Dec-2019 Buyback 40,000 0.955 0.955 View Detail
05-Dec-2019 05-Dec-2019 Buyback 30,000 0.955 0.960 View Detail
04-Dec-2019 04-Dec-2019 Buyback 100,000 0.950 0.960 View Detail
03-Dec-2019 03-Dec-2019 Buyback 70,000 0.960 0.965 View Detail
02-Dec-2019 02-Dec-2019 Buyback 200,000 0.960 0.970 View Detail
29-Nov-2019 29-Nov-2019 Buyback 110,000 0.965 0.970 View Detail
28-Nov-2019 28-Nov-2019 Buyback 210,000 0.970 0.980 View Detail
27-Nov-2019 27-Nov-2019 Buyback 10,000 0.980 0.985 View Detail
26-Nov-2019 26-Nov-2019 Buyback 70,000 0.990 0.995 View Detail
25-Nov-2019 04-Dec-2019 Buyback 815,000 0.950 0.995 View Detail
25-Nov-2019 25-Nov-2019 Buyback 45,000 0.990 0.995 View Detail
31-Oct-2019 31-Oct-2019 Buyback 10,000 1.030 1.040 View Detail
31-Oct-2019 31-Oct-2019 Buyback 10,000 1.030 1.040 View Detail
16-Oct-2019 16-Oct-2019 Buyback 20,000 1.040 1.050 View Detail
10-Oct-2019 10-Oct-2019 Buyback 10,000 1.040 1.040 View Detail
09-Oct-2019 09-Oct-2019 Buyback 10,000 1.030 1.030 View Detail
08-Oct-2019 08-Oct-2019 Buyback 30,000 1.060 1.060 View Detail
07-Oct-2019 16-Oct-2019 Buyback 90,000 1.030 1.060 View Detail
07-Oct-2019 07-Oct-2019 Buyback 20,000 1.030 1.030 View Detail
04-Oct-2019 04-Oct-2019 Buyback 40,000 1.020 1.030 View Detail
03-Oct-2019 03-Oct-2019 Buyback 30,000 1.020 1.020 View Detail
01-Oct-2019 01-Oct-2019 Buyback 30,000 1.040 1.040 View Detail
30-Sep-2019 30-Sep-2019 Buyback 50,000 1.020 1.040 View Detail
27-Sep-2019 27-Sep-2019 Buyback 50,000 1.050 1.050 View Detail
26-Sep-2019 26-Sep-2019 Buyback 50,000 1.040 1.050 View Detail
25-Sep-2019 04-Oct-2019 Buyback 356,000 1.020 1.050 View Detail
25-Sep-2019 25-Sep-2019 Buyback 106,000 1.020 1.030 View Detail
01-Mar-2019 01-Mar-2019 Buyback 150,000 1.080 1.080 View Detail
25-Feb-2019 01-Mar-2019 Buyback 350,000 1.080 1.150 View Detail
25-Feb-2019 25-Feb-2019 Buyback 200,000 1.150 1.150

Hi Calvin tan, even management has faith in gkent, backed by a few hundred million of cash.
Ask me if I am worried, profitable company, shareholder centric company, 7% sustainable dividends ( more for me if treasury shares increases) and most importantly...
09/12/2019 1:16 PM
X
Philip Greta 24-Sep-2019 09-Oct-2019 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.015 Dividend Detail
25-Mar-2019 05-Apr-2019 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.035 Dividend Detail
19-Dec-2018 04-Jan-2019 DIVIDEND Second interim dividend RM 0.015 Dividend Detail
26-Sep-2018 10-Oct-2018 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.02 Dividend Detail
19-Mar-2018 03-Apr-2018 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.05

Most importantly Calvin, is the company profitable? Yes. Is the dividend from free cash flow? Yes. Is the company net cash? Very much so. Is the company getting big project orders? Yes the 16 billion is still in the works.

Am I worried? Of course not. I can guarantee the next quarter will have another dividend payment, rewarding me for waiting.

24-Sep-2019 09-Oct-2019 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.015 Dividend Detail
25-Mar-2019 05-Apr-2019 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.035 Dividend Detail
19-Dec-2018 04-Jan-2019 DIVIDEND Second interim dividend RM 0.015 Dividend Detail
26-Sep-2018 10-Oct-2018 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.02 Dividend Detail
19-Mar-2018 03-Apr-2018 DIVIDEND Interim Dividend RM 0.05

Most importantly Calvin, is the company profitable? Yes. Is the dividend from free cash flow? Yes. Is the company net cash? Very much so. Is the company getting big project orders? Yes the 16 billion is still in the works.

Am I worried? Of course not. I can guarantee the next quarter will have another dividend payment, rewarding me for waiting.

06-Dec-2019 06-Dec-2019 Buyback 40,000 0.955 0.955 View Detail
05-Dec-2019 05-Dec-2019 Buyback 30,000 0.955 0.960 View Detail
04-Dec-2019 04-Dec-2019 Buyback 100,000 0.950 0.960 View Detail
03-Dec-2019 03-Dec-2019 Buyback 70,000 0.960 0.965 View Detail
02-Dec-2019 02-Dec-2019 Buyback 200,000 0.960 0.970 View Detail
29-Nov-2019 29-Nov-2019 Buyback 110,000 0.965 0.970 View Detail
28-Nov-2019 28-Nov-2019 Buyback 210,000 0.970 0.980 View Detail
27-Nov-2019 27-Nov-2019 Buyback 10,000 0.980 0.985 View Detail
26-Nov-2019 26-Nov-2019 Buyback 70,000 0.990 0.995 View Detail
25-Nov-2019 04-Dec-2019 Buyback 815,000 0.950 0.995 View Detail
25-Nov-2019 25-Nov-2019 Buyback 45,000 0.990 0.995 View Detail
31-Oct-2019 31-Oct-2019 Buyback 10,000 1.030 1.040 View Detail
31-Oct-2019 31-Oct-2019 Buyback 10,000 1.030 1.040 View Detail
16-Oct-2019 16-Oct-2019 Buyback 20,000 1.040 1.050 View Detail
10-Oct-2019 10-Oct-2019 Buyback 10,000 1.040 1.040 View Detail
09-Oct-2019 09-Oct-2019 Buyback 10,000 1.030 1.030 View Detail
08-Oct-2019 08-Oct-2019 Buyback 30,000 1.060 1.060 View Detail
07-Oct-2019 16-Oct-2019 Buyback 90,000 1.030 1.060 View Detail
07-Oct-2019 07-Oct-2019 Buyback 20,000 1.030 1.030 View Detail
04-Oct-2019 04-Oct-2019 Buyback 40,000 1.020 1.030 View Detail
03-Oct-2019 03-Oct-2019 Buyback 30,000 1.020 1.020 View Detail
01-Oct-2019 01-Oct-2019 Buyback 30,000 1.040 1.040 View Detail
30-Sep-2019 30-Sep-2019 Buyback 50,000 1.020 1.040 View Detail
27-Sep-2019 27-Sep-2019 Buyback 50,000 1.050 1.050 View Detail
26-Sep-2019 26-Sep-2019 Buyback 50,000 1.040 1.050 View Detail
25-Sep-2019 04-Oct-2019 Buyback 356,000 1.020 1.050 View Detail
25-Sep-2019 25-Sep-2019 Buyback 106,000 1.020 1.030 View Detail
01-Mar-2019 01-Mar-2019 Buyback 150,000 1.080 1.080 View Detail
25-Feb-2019 01-Mar-2019 Buyback 350,000 1.080 1.150 View Detail
25-Feb-2019 25-Feb-2019 Buyback 200,000 1.150 1.150

Hi Calvin tan, even management has faith in gkent, backed by a few hundred million of cash.
Ask me if I am worried, profitable company, shareholder centric company, 7% sustainable dividends ( more for me if treasury shares increases) and most importantly...

Ql is wrong stock? So funny. It's 7.45 far from your doomsday prediction...

But those who spend 100k buying netx and those who spend millions buying gkent have different levels of conviction.

Now game over? While I'm enjoying 7% dividend and constant buyback from management ( increasing shareholder value) and allowing me to buy more stock at cheaper prices?

So funny, especially from someone who bought TALAMT and scomies and many bad stocks.

Good luck to you in your foolish asset assumptions.

You have been promoting talamt since 2016 without results... Will your netx suffer the same fate?

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

If taking about wisdom, it is far better to be wrong in the short term and right in the long, rather than those who worship and believe in talamt for YEARS AND YEARS WITHOUT SEEING ANY BENEFIT.

Pchem is giving me wonderful dividends and rewards me for waiting and buying more at lower prices while waiting for completion of IPIC.

Those without wisdom? Those who don't understand how business works and keep on talking and talking about asset plays without understanding how a company gains assets in the first place.

Poor you.

How is your TALAMT doing?

I laugh at this remark. Netx is alive because they make use of investors gullibility by selling stock and raising cash over and over and over again. Not because the business is viable, but because investors are stuck inside and buying a dream. I can guarantee you sooner or later netx week so another share placement.

And if you think you can sell your measly 100k for 2 cents in the open market you have another thing coming....

But then again, that is exactly why you are trying to promote so much so you can quietly sell, rinse and repeat, just like your city harvest church buddies...

>>>>>>>>

NETX has Rm35 Millions in NET CASH

CalvinT promote netx as disruptive, with e-commerce.

2 minutes of quick search shows that payallz on Google store only has 500+ downloads...

Imagine paying 8 million for a 60% share for a loss making business arm that has a payment system with below 1000 customers... Would you support a management that spends your raised equity by selling 1 billion shares @15 million to spend on "disruptive" business like payallz?

As my daughter like to comment these days...

Bitch please!

Please buy netx! Calvin tan is the next Zhang Jian! He can definitely be trusted.

Just don't ask the following questions:

1. Why can't an IT company with 72 million market cap can't even do a proper website? Are they trying to hide information? Or make it harder to find?
2. Why is the company financials so horrible for the last 5 years?
3. If you submitted the company last 5 year performance to the tendering board, if you were in the tendering board, would you award any major contract to netx? So you think they have the management, engineering and financial capability to complete projects?
4. If you could choose between them and other major suppliers and you had to explain to your boss why you would like to choose netx versus others competitors, what would be your reason?
5. If the only reason Calvin is asking you to buy is so that he can sell the shares to you at a higher price ( instead of holding on for the long term), would you do it?

Good companies do not need promotion or confirmation. All it needs is time. Revenue and earnings growth speak louder than words.

Well written and appreciated article.

Jumping over 10 foot poles indeed.

Hi sslee, icon8888 had it right when he mentioned you look at the leaves instead of the forest. A good company is a good company, never mind who will reach 15 first.

The more important fact is to understand which company is the riskier ( in terms of business, not ticker prices),

As long as business is doing well, the share price will reflect sooner or later.

Like I always say, it is more important to know how the business will do in the long run than to worry about short term price fluctuations.

>>>>>>>>

Sslee Just wonder Pchem at 7.06 and QL at 7.25 which will have a better EPS growth, dividend yield and which will reach 15 first?
30/11/2019 3:41 PM

I've heard some stupid talk, but as usual we don't need to believe everything that we hear.

>>>>>>

shpg22 This stock is controlled by syndicate. The price won't come down, unless they want it to.
16/11/2019 10:14 AM

So much for Calvin tan chun chun prediction...

Holland sifu

Not to forget da Vinci acquisition, which does speciality chemicals for the beauty and skincare market.

If icon8888 thinks pchem is bad, then sell.

But if he can wait for a power plant to complete, why not wait for a chemical plant the size of 4 twin towers in steel? And enjoy 29 cents dividend since this year to buy more at discount prices?

Why don't you stick to your lctitan buying whole driving with left hand on the wheel?

>>>>>>>>

Icon8888 Sabah sifu becomes Holland sifu
14/11/2019 6:10 PM

Is it above market benchmark? You can compare lctitan results and performance with PCHEM to know who will be around 10 years from now and which is undervalued at these p prices.

Funny, such short term thinkers. Has IPIC started operations yet?

For those who are not traders and short term investors, let me clarify what I look at in the earnings report: look to
A11. Significant and subsequent events. We are still waiting on completion of PIC with no news on any delay, cancellation or problems. So my original reasoning in purchasing PIC is still interact, thus: discount day.

Look to B1.

The Group recorded lower plant utilisation at 81% from 100% in the preceding quarter, mainly due to statutory turnaround and higher level of maintenance activities undertaken in the current quarter. Sales volume was lower in line with lower production.
Overall average product prices were slightly higher despite lower crude oil price.
Revenue decreased by RM668 million or 15% at RM3.7 billion largely due to lower sales volume.
EBITDA was lower by RM606 million or 40% at RM915 million mainly due to lower revenue and higher
maintenance costs during turnaround period. Profit after tax decreased by RM554 million or 50% at RM558 million.

If you look carefully, due to the fire at IPIC there was a slew of maintenance and turnaround activities that quarter to make sure that mistakes do not reoccur. It was better to do something to reduce profit and increase safety and long term performance. Obviously with lowered production of 19% we also end up with lower revenue (down 15%) and lower earnings.

BUT IS IT A LONG TERM EVENT OR A SHORT TERM ACTIVITY? You may ask yourself if they do maintenance turnaround every quarter and see if sales figures will recover or not.

For the answer to that, look to

COMMENTARY ON PROSPECTS
The results of the Group’s operations are expected to be primarily influenced by global economic conditions,
foreign exchange rate movements, utilisation rate of our production facilities and petrochemical products prices
which have a high correlation to crude oil price, particularly for the Olefins and Derivatives segment.

The utilisation of our production facilities is dependent on plant maintenance activities and sufficient availability
of feedstock as well as utilities supply. The Group will continue with its operational excellence programme and
supplier relationship management to sustain plant utilisation level at above industry benchmark.
Olefins and Derivatives
The Group anticipates product prices for Olefins and Derivatives segment to stabilise in the coming quarter. This
is in view of supply limitation following planned regional turnarounds.
Fertilisers and Methanol
The Group expects that Fertiliser and Methanol product prices to also stabilise due to limited supply amidst soft
demand from the end products.

Simplified, buying PCHEM for the LONG TERM relies on understanding these factors:

Will
1. Malaysia ringgit drop versus USD ( sad to say, a surety)
2. Pchem complete IPIC ( let's say chances are much higher than jaks completion of power plant)
3. Will production and turnaround activities end and lead to higher profits? ( If you believe this quarter is temporary, then you can rely on the last 10 years earnings for pchem to give you forward)

Now, who is willing to bet with me that next quarter results will be at least a billion in earnings and a big far 15 cents of dividends?

As a previous shareholder of instacom back in the day when they got the rest Malaysia tower contracts, I am very sad to see the progress of the company today. I still have a few odd lots of The warrants given free with my odd lots of unsellable instacom in my portfolio, a lesson in buying quality and following good companies.

In other major news, London biscuit defaulted again on a paltry 22.5 million loan, while Nestle has given out 70 cents dividends on a stellar yoy growth of 8.2%.

Investments are a marathon, not a race.

I don't understand the comment. How can you rightfully criticize something unless you already tried it?

In my younger days I tried technical analysis ( I find it useful and money making, until I went bankrupt in a black swan)
I was a chartist( until I realized using different time frames you can make a chart tell you anything you want).
I was a dividend lover, until I realized high dividends were never sustainable in a growing a company.

How else can Warren criticize hedge funds without trying it out and realizing it's unsustainable due to the high fees that professionals ask for ( and proven in his big bet).

Warren invests in banks, and only then does he realize how banks function. Many banks take advantage free with risky and unnecessary business practices with other people's money.

Warren buffet does not avoid taxes. He pays exactly what the government requests same as everyone else, nothing more. Doesn't mean he doesn't see the flaw in the taxation system.

He was a republican. That's why realizes a democratic method as more efficient.

The difference between Warren and many old people is that he is constantly learning and improving his thought process. He does things which he never would have done before ( like buying airplane stocks and tech companies), while everyone seems to believe that Warren is still a cigar butt investor of value ( anything but!).

I think everyone needs to learn and improve their craft.

I used to be an otb type investor in the 90s.
Then a kyy investor in the dotcom crash.
Then Calvin investor during the enron days ( net assets? Pwuah!)
Now I like to believe in a mix of Philip Fisher, Peter lunch, Charlie munger, Buffett, templeton, with one core thought.

Find and invest in quality. Hold on to the wonderful company and it will make you rich.


Any also, how many any hedge funds keep all their own money in their fund?




>>>>>>>>>


Posted by i3lurker > Nov 9, 2019 8:52 AM | Report Abuse

3iii

Is Warren Buffett a Liar?

Loeb continued:
“I love how he criticizes hedge funds yet he really had the first hedge fund.
He criticizes activists. He was the first activist.
He criticizes financial services companies yet he likes to invest with them.
He thinks we should all pay more taxes, but he loves avoiding them.
There’s a disconnect between his wisdom and his [actions].”

His comments were met with cheers and applause from the thousand or so hedge fund managers in attendance.

I have already given my explanation on petronm and rce capital.i have attended the agm, read the industry trade journals and the financial reports. I highly doubt you will see much sustainable growth here. As you seem to be the expert on rce capital and petronm which was your biggest largest shareholding I believe you may have some confirmation bias on your rce and petronm.

It is fine to be confident on a stock that you own. But it is useless to just tell someone to look further into something without explanation and talk later.

I will just continue to monitor your performance with your rcecapital, hengyuan and petronm to see the quality of your investment strength.

I will stop commenting here again until the next QR results.

Hi outlier,

I totally agree: thus I post with my remark
"
Nothing wrong with investing in petronm. you just need to know what kind of business you are putting your hands into. dont expect 20PE or growing earnings or increased dividend for a long long time yet.
"

The main point I am trying to make is that the fuel service industry is very saturated ( similar to condo development construction industry).

Very hard to make money. Like I said, those who buy petronm based on last year results of crack spread and expecting it to be reoccurring and sustainable will be in for a rude Awakening.

As the market value increases, so will the share of petronas, shell and others. In fact, refinery wise, petronas will be taking a huge step forward next year compared to it's peers. Petronm will definitely make money, but so will pouring money in the fixed deposit.

I don't believe in buying petronm or any stock based on past performances. I buy it based on the quality of the revenue and earnings, and the possibility and feasibility of future growth expectations.

As young choivo so succinctly explained, he expects 200 million in a good year, 100 million in a normal and 50 million in a bad year.

My question is why invest in average companies at all?

Of course, you can question yinson results this year, ql and topglov results last year, and gkent results next year. I may be wrong, but so far my results are still ok for me.

Maybe it's just me, I much prefer a company with clear earnings and revenues coming in the future, and a well managed and resourceful one.

And speaking of shareholder value, how is petronm rewarding shareholders with share buybacks dividends?

I give a simple example, choivo is getting 4.5% for his margin collateralization. Very high, but understandable.

Using the same ideas, take for example GKENT. Today it is 1.02, paying a 6.42% dividend yield or 6.5 cents since last year. The management is doing a lot of share buybacks, it is cash positive and guaranteed earnings and revenue increase with lrt3 and mrt2 and water meter increase of 26 export territories. Management has guided to increased revenue by Q1 2020. If you took a million dollar loan, the dividend alone would have paid for the margin, as well as the constant buyback from the management. You are assured double revenues and earnings next year ( by Malaysia government claim for lrt3). Historically before changing of government their share price was 2+. It is a net cash company with a market leadership in water meter and a niche specially is railway automation and control( how many Malaysian companies can claim that?)

Choivo seems to think petronm can consistently do 3b every quarter and grow and grow, but he doesn't have a confident set of ideas how and why it could do so. How can he? When management itself has not guided towards growth but preaches safety and cost reductions instead of growth.

For me like you said I practice qualitative analysis. I will consider investment into petronm only if one of the following occur,

1. A change in CEO and hire vig knudstorp.
2. They become the first to have a biodiesel refinery and produce b20+ grade and Palm oil high grade biodisel product conversion for diesel pump station. ( If Europe has 50% diesel from bio sources, I'm sure it can be done in Malaysia).
3. They suddenly have a more efficient and cheap source of oil compared to petronas, Shell and friends.
4. They become the first supercharger compliant network in Malaysia. Not because this will earn money, but more because they are starting to look to grow the company instead of resting on laurels.
5. They somehow hit petronas level net profit margins quarterly. There are those who buy lctitan for the 5% np, and those who buy pchem for the 25% np. I prefer companies with either high earnings, or willing to sacrifice short term earnings for huge growth. Low earnings and low growth, not so much.
6. They start to fully embrace the concept of the fuel station as a mini 7-11, where customers buy more than just fuel. I loved that shell and petronas led the way with this, and others began to fall suit. Nothing like buying fuel and claiming the voucher for a bag of rice to build customer loyalty.

I don't think you have been to their AGM before to be honest. I always go through all financial reports, AGM transcripts and shareholders discussions before I comment. Those I don't have much interest in I rarely comment.

I repeat, is there any way for them to raise their revenues to 4 billion a quarter and increase margins without losing market share? Is it a business that can grow over it's peers? Or are we just buying something because it is cheap? The entire industry is cheap.

I prefer quality buying above all else, if I had to choose.

QL on the other hand, if you want to keep comparing has been growing revenues unlike anything seen in the simple chicken and egg industry before. I will take 6% margins any day for a yoy growth as spectacular as that.

>>>>>>

Posted by Choivo Capital > Nov 7, 2019 3:26 PM | Report Abuse

I don't think you actually understand the business or its history to be honest. Take a look at the accounts from 2013 to 2018 at least, and let me know what you think.

Dear Sslee,

I invite you to see the 5 year returns of market cap and dividend yield of Insas against QL. So far I still dont see insas 90 cents and RM1 as per stockraider claims. And the 50PE company went higher and higher consistently without any hiccups. Wet wet song song for last 10 years, even today still growing consistently while insas has been on yoyo curve and waiting for dividend coming for a long long time.

I wonder what the 5 year return on market cap and dividend yield has been?

Oh wait, short term thinkers only compare short term results.

In that case Insas wins hands down.


Posted by Sslee > Nov 7, 2019 2:21 PM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha
deMusangking, the feeling is real the dividend is coming.
As of 3iii. You can ask him what is the return on market cap and dividend yield of INSAS against QL.
JAKS so far dividend yield is still zero.

Actually there are far more questions to ask than that.
1. Why are investors only willing to pay 6.24 PE for petronm? This is a very interesting question indeed. the next few questions are followups that will be very pertinent.
1a. What is the possibility of Petronm increasing their profit margins above 5%? If they could do it, how would they do it and would it be feasible? (this includes things like increasing efficiency, buying organically integrated businesses and investing in new products or systems that competitors are unable to have access to)
1b. What is the possibility of users to choose petronm above other competitors like petronas, shell etc even if the prices were fixed nationwide.
1c. what is petronm gameplan to hit 4 billion a quarter? do they have enough resources (without cutting the 3% dividend), and is it likely that they will do so?
1d. was 2017 an anomaly with the crack spread or is it something that can repeated sustainably?

All of these questions tie into one simple answer. petronm has been doing below 3 billion in revenue a quarter since forever, and it is very very likely that this will continue. Petronm has been doing below 5% net profit margins a quarter since forever, and it is very very likely that this will continue. There is no differentiating factor from petronm versus its other competitors, and there is no catalyst or guidance from the management that petronm will overperform in the future or give bigger dividends above its 20 cents per year.

knowing this fact and the fact that you will only be a minority investor in petronm business (with no ability to change anything),

all you get for your 6.24PE is 3% dividend a year, so why pay more for such volatile earnings?
you can also choose to pay 1 PE for your RHB fixed deposit at 4.5%, which amounts to the same thing.

Do you see Petronm growing and growing and taking market share and expanding to other countries? I dont. What I do see is a business that has maximized its local market share and is content to keep to its corner.

A safe, efficient and boring 3% a year with minimal growth of revenue and earnings. slowly building up its cash hoard to buy its next refinery to keep things going.

Nothing wrong with investing in petronm. you just need to know what kind of business you are putting your hands into. dont expect 20PE or growing earnings or increased dividend for a long long time yet.

Just because something is low PE does not make it necessarily good. It just means investors will not overpay for something that will not overperform.


>>>>>>>>

Posted by Choivo Capital > Nov 7, 2019 1:25 PM | Report Abuse

Here's the basic understanding to Petron.

They make about 200m a year net from the petrol stations.

So each Q, you can expect 50m from that.

Refinery, makes either 200m in a good year, 100m normal, and -50m to 50m in bad times. This depends a lot on spread.

So the thing you need to know now is, you're paying 7 times earnings for a very stable and well run petrol station business, and you get a refinery for free.


Only question you need to ask in this case is,

1) How efficient are they compared to the competitors in the refinery business? Pretty good.

2) Is there a structural decline or slowdown in demand for fuel related products? Nope.

3) Can you handle volatility in earnings? Yes.

I totally did not know they did semiconductor business. All this while when i visited their plant in penang I only thought they did fabrication of the hard disk drive pins and metal spring miniature steel fabs.

which part of semiconductors do they produce?

No he didn't, he still buying property stocks.

Stockraider is a conman. He promise insas 90 cents after Merdeka, then say hengyuan intrinsic value 45, then say sapura rm3 value. Can believe this myvi delivery boy? You already lost all credibility. Please stop talking to me.

Please sell your INSAS and buy better stocks. The 5 year return is far far better than INSAS performance. Please abandon your emotion and cognitive biased and buy a good stock for once.

QL is guaranteed to continue to do well, while INSAS is just another mediocre performing company, full of talk but no action.

Thank you.

>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Oct 9, 2019 8:05 AM | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Are you showing symptom of emotion or cognitive biases? We are talking about stocks considered as overvalued because their PEG ratio did not tell a very high growth rate and you talk about selling fist wife getting second wife? My god “Unlike some I don't sell a beautiful first wife just to get the younger sexier second wife. Especially when the first wife can surprise you yet!”

Thank you
P/S:
QL last five year performance
https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/7084.jsp?type=last10fy
Revenue: 3,613M: 3,263M: 3,012M: 2,853M: 2,707M
NP to Shareholder: 216.7M: 206.2M: 195.9M: 192.1M: 191.4M
EPS: 13.36: 12.71: 15.70: 15.39: 15.34
DPS: 4.5: 4.5: 7.25: 4.25: 4.25

Scum.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/123029.jsp

This is his total promoted stock with his results long term.

Taking advantage of buying 30 cheap housing and resell it for higher prices to those that are needy and cannot afford it.

Thank God Singapore has HDB flat and does not allow these kind of scumbag activity.

Btw, talamt drop from his original promotion at 8 cents drop until today 3 cents, he no longer comments. Very suspect.

Dear sslee,

I repeat AGAIN respectfully so you may understand.

Any business where the revenues and earnings are growing consistently while keeping shareholder value will see is share price growing.

50 pe or not, the last 5 years performance of QL has been exemplary. Management has guided towards double digits growth in their future until 2025. Cash flow is brilliant and growing. The total dividend has been increasing year after year after year. Are you able to guarantee or predict long price stagnation of QL?

If you are able to show me your Crystal ball or give me a profit guarantee for insas I would be more than willing to sell all of my ql shares and go all in on your INSAS and buy a 5% stake in the company.

Just because something is expensive doesn't mean it has to drop. Just as something that is cheap will never go cheaper.

But I do appreciate your concern, but I am blessed enough by topglove, ql, yinson in the past and I expect to be blessed more by gkent and pchem in the future.

Unlike some I don't sell a beautiful first wife just to get the younger sexier second wife. Especially when the first wife can surprise you yet!



>>>>>>>>

We are doing so with no ill intention but as a concern that perhaps they had fall in love/trap with their beloved shares and enable to listen to reason (behavioral biases). Should they sell some of those PE> 50 company shares and invest in Pchem which is at very attractive price now or face a long price stagnation of their beloved shares?

Thank you