Posted by enigmatic ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ > 2019-12-01 23:34 | Report Abuse

"Earnings is important. But earnings, or earnings growth is useless if it is not converted to hard cash."

Posted by Haw Liao > 2019-12-02 09:53 | Report Abuse

too many other biscuit brands in the market hence many competition...

no business moat

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-12-02 09:54 | Report Abuse

Holland Biscuit

Posted by CharlesT > 2019-12-02 10:14 | Report Abuse

At least Notion got fire incidents n compensation fm Insurance to help...lol

Posted by kcchongnz > 2019-12-02 10:29 | Report Abuse

Posted by i3lurker > Dec 1, 2019 11:46 PM | Report Abuse
Those cash just went out the door from purchase of PPE, property plant and equipmemt
latest one just before collapse was RM50 million (from memory)
its quite simple
you had actually converted a very simple case
to an extraordinary complex case with unnecessary data, padding and complex interpretations

Thee are two types of personalities in decision making; one using system 1, the easy and lazy type of cognitive bias to jump into conclusion without using his left brain, the other uses system 2, think and analyze in detail first before making a conclusion.

Most people use system 1, which is natural for most people as they are human. Those using system 2 are rare.

To each his own.

Posted by 鹅麟依旧≈ 扫地僧 > 2019-12-02 11:53 | Report Abuse

Ohh my god... Choked my sifu Master Kc chong???! Drink heneiken la....

Posted by 鹅麟依旧≈ 扫地僧 > 2019-12-02 11:55 | Report Abuse

Sifu chong..... Holland waffer so nice why u Kena chocked? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stroopwafel

Cannot be

Posted by i3lurker > 2019-12-02 11:57 | Report Abuse

market price RM15.00 per kg for scrap metal or around there plus minus

Posted by kcchongnz > 2019-12-02 14:05 | Report Abuse

Posted by Haw Liao > Dec 2, 2019 9:53 AM | Report Abuse
too many other biscuit brands in the market hence many competition...
no business moat

Many listed biscuit companies such as Apollo, Hup Seng, etc are doing ok. None so bad as London Biscuits.

Posted by ktsk88 > 2019-12-02 14:17 | Report Abuse

at the first place whether any of the purchase of machinery is indeed for their purpose?. hope no repeat of Megan Media Holdings Bhd case.

Posted by Choivo Capital > 2019-12-02 15:18 | Report Abuse

Owners Earnings!

Posted by R3D3 > 2019-12-02 15:42 | Report Abuse

Many years ago whereiszemoola warned about this stock....

Posted by i3lurker > 2019-12-02 15:45 | Report Abuse

finally boils down to integrity of Directors
no integrity ==> surprise RM400 million impairments wipe off everything

now only worth RM15.00 per kg scrap iron value

I think biscuits are also sold by weight.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2019-12-02 15:54 | Report Abuse

"very simple
PPE just took out RM50 million (last purchase)
and company just collapsed"

Very simple?

Many companies invest in PPE, tens of millions a year is very common, and many of them made good profits after that. London Biscuits also spent RM92m in 2012 for PPE. Why didn't it "just collapsed" then?

Analysing a company's cash flow and understanding it is easy meat, if you know. Of course if one knows nothing about financial statement, then it is complicated. He may just treat it as complicated "theories", instead of practical investing.

Only businessman knows about business and others don't? I know many businessmen don't know about managing businesses. That is why most businesses fail.

To each his own though.

Posted by i3lurker > 2019-12-02 16:20 | Report Abuse

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method

its not too late for you to learn

Posted by kcchongnz > 2019-12-02 16:32 | Report Abuse

Posted by i3lurker > Dec 2, 2019 4:06 PM | Report Abuse
have you heard of Monte Carlo Simulations?

Of course I know what Monte Carlo Simulations are.

But here is wrong place to boast about it. It is also useless in investing.

The useful investing skill is to know some basic accounting to understand how to read and understand financial statement. It is definitely not the useless MCS, or Mong Char Stuff

Posted by i3lurker > 2019-12-02 16:33 | Report Abuse

you are correct as usual of course!!

:)

Posted by kcchongnz > 2019-12-02 16:38 | Report Abuse

Posted by i3lurker > Dec 2, 2019 4:33 PM | Report Abuse
you are correct as usual of course!!


Well, did I say that anywhere?

Just like to have an intelligent discussion with you.

By the way, who talked about "complicated theories" here?

Reading and interpreting financial statement or MCS?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2019-12-02 16:44 | Report Abuse

i3lurker has left a new comment on your post "Biscuit From Holland that chokes kcchongnz":
you have only 11 columns up there
to interpret anything out of those 11 columns is just irresponsible
we interpret 20,000 cash flows minimum and usually more

I thought you prefer simplicity, just because "50m taken off for PPE" or something like that?

Why now 20,000 cash flows minimum?

What "20000 cash flows minimum" you were doing ah?

Posted by Philip Greta > 2019-12-02 18:01 | Report Abuse

Well written and appreciated article.

Jumping over 10 foot poles indeed.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2019-12-02 18:46 | Report Abuse

Malayan flour also ?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2019-12-02 19:50 | Report Abuse

Posted by Philip Greta > Dec 2, 2019 6:01 PM | Report Abuse
Well written and appreciated article.
Jumping over 10 foot poles indeed.

It is human nature; after spending time trying to share something, feeling dejected kena hantam, and happy when appreciated.

Thank you.

Posted by 鹅麟依旧≈ 扫地僧 > 2019-12-02 20:37 | Report Abuse

How are u Icon8888 boss?

How are u Master Kc chong?

Posted by KLCI King > 2019-12-02 23:33 | Report Abuse

It is obvious governance issues, manipulated so obvious also no action from any authority to take a look or investigate?

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2019-12-03 10:24 | Report Abuse

You are right.

However, you know, what QL was listed years ago, I look at the accounts and I had the same doubt. Account receivables were entirely finance by borrowings. So I passed. Surprised, surprised, just missed a 20 baggers.

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2019-12-03 10:27 | Report Abuse

You know, in the early years, if you look at Gillette, the accounts were terrible too. But when Warren bought it, they already had the breakthrough on the blades.

That is the beauty of investing. Much more complicated than numbers.

Always walk the extra mile, check harder.

Posted by supersaiyan3 > 2019-12-03 10:28 | Report Abuse

Account is the language of business. We need to see if the language spoken is consistent with the reality of the business.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2019-12-03 13:48 | Report Abuse

Posted by supersaiyan3 > Dec 3, 2019 10:24 AM | Report Abuse
You are right.
However, you know, what QL was listed years ago, I look at the accounts and I had the same doubt. Account receivables were entirely finance by borrowings. So I passed. Surprised, surprised, just missed a 20 baggers.

That is why some people don't treat things as so simple like those using "system 1" type of thinking as above. I personally prefer using "system 2" in more detail analysis, just like you do below,

Posted by supersaiyan3 > Dec 3, 2019 10:28 AM | Report Abuse
Account is the language of business. We need to see if the language spoken is consistent with the reality of the business.