LAYHONG, here are the facts.

Oversupply of DOC and eggs? Facts.
Only one business model? Fact.
Very low margins, high competition? Fact.
Disease and illness ? Fact.
Poor growth history? Fact.
Not market leader? Fact.
Lackluster management? Fact.
No expansion plans? Fact.
Poor share price performance? Fact.

There are so many assumptions to make to predict LAYHONG success, I find it so hard to even try.

Minimized assumptions, maximized facts.

What are facts for pchem?

PIC completion: fact.
Increase of revenue from production of PIC: guaranteed.
High net profit from sustainable business advantage: fact.
20% PAT: fact.
No losing quarters in last 10 years: fact.
Consistent yearly growth: fact.
Cash hoard: fact.
Resilient business model: fact.
China trade war temporary: fact. ( Until they dump Trump).
Pchem market leader in sea? Fact.
Business model resistant to disruption? Fact.

So many facts, I can minimize assumptions.

Circumstances change is not overnight. You can always see it coming if you look at the long term.

Those who can't will always give excuses and promote random walk theory, and efficient market theory.

Your point is there is no point. You find life is complicated and business volatile because you choose to invest in volatile companies like armada and Lotte. Loss making, warrants, gambling. So your point of view is clouded by your investments.

You choose to make your life complicated.

I just make my life simple and buy wonderful companies with consistent growth and minimized risks and maximized opportunity.

I buy pchem and yinson instead.

My point is I choose to make my life simple and consistent.


>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > Aug 11, 2019 7:00 AM | Report Abuse

Is buying pchem based on facts or assumptions ?

Herbert, you must learn 2 things.

Take your time when buying stocks. No need to buy or trade everyday. Making money is about being right, not being active. If you missed in 1000 stocks you won't lose money, it is only when you buy that you take a risk. So be patient and be very very sure if the company and minimize as much as possible all your assumptions but sticks to facts.



2. Never fall in love with your stocks. If business had not been doing well for last 3 years, it won't suddenly explode up and do well, especially if commodities. Most importantly, if the signs show that business will not be good in the future for entire INDUSTRY, then you should be very careful.

You will never get anywhere with your investment technique raider. You will forever be stuck with your myvi if you try to spam your stocks in other people's counters and blogs if you don't understand what you are buying.

I feel you very sad. Hope you learn how to do INVESTMENTs one day that don't crash.

I comment on my own held stocks, who say don't work? I already make money holding it for long long time, your INSAS say 90 cents by 31st August how leh? Bring ppl to Holland? Stick to your own stocks la sohai, post your stocks in other counters for what? So you can upgrade your myvi to Japanese car?

Hi stockraider, your INSAS 90 cents by 31st August how? Any news?

If your guarantee doesn't work as your promotion, can you stop commenting on my blog and fcuk off? You keep drowning other posts, whole your prediction never work out.

Lanchester law of linear combat:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lanchester%27s_laws#Lanchester's_linear_law

Basically what does this mental model describe: the bigger the force, the lower the attrition and casualty rate.

In business economics we can apply it with this mental model: whenever you consider businesses, you need to understand what is the minimum size required to "fight" a battle with competitors, how big you need your business to be to have an uneven competitive advantage, and at what point does the business size start being disadvantageous in competing with peers.

An interesting thought process in when too big is not good, too small is not good, but capturing a business at just the right size and time.

The mathematical formula created by lanchester to calculate army sizes and attrition rates are worth considering indeed.

Business itself is a form of economical warfare.

We can apply this to the situation of

LHI
LAYHONG
TEOSENG
QL

Within the agriculture sphere

Or

Maybank
Rhb
Pbb
Cimb

Within the banking sphere

To have a deeper understanding of how predict these businesses 5-10 years from now in relation to each other.

I can think of 10 stocks that fit KYY "golden rule", but are pieces of bird droppings.

Market is always acting volatile. The same people that value npchem at v70 billion a few months back, now suddenly value pchem at 50 billion. Results are not even out yet.

All I know it's Stockraider promise 31st August 2019 national Day celebration he very super duper confident say insas hit 0.9 and next year February hit rm1.

Not my words, it is stone raider words.

So we watch and wish him good luck la. See if his prediction come true. Every day predict like so pro.

Good article to ponder.

Very good info and learning from Leno. Share info is good. If got opinion of INSAS share once is enough, no need to keep repeating. If they buy they buy, make money happy for them. Lose money keep quiet better argue so much in the end money win or lose is not yours.

Leon wise cat.

It's ok, Stockraider say insas rm 0.90 at 31st August. Just have faith in him.



>>>>>>>>

Posted by leno > Aug 2, 2019 3:57 PM | Report Abuse

wat gives comfort and holding power to value investor ... the answer is Experience. For eg. from my experience .. value investing WORK for me ... it makes me multi millionaire ... meaning the strategies has been working so many many time for me. When i bought PBBank at RM 2 40 .... Nestle at RM 8 .. johorport 1.80 , leader 40 sen, insas 50 sen, pmcorp 8 sen, lcth 13 sen, eforce 40 sen, and many many more .... tat's why leno no need to spend time in other people counter to tok kok. Just because leno onli in insas does not mean other counter is bad. Not at all. There are OTHER GOOD stock that leno do not buy .... money is a limited source. Time and energy are limited as well. Wish everi one all the best. Dont makan cuka too much. See ppl make money get angri ... see ppl lose money also get angri ... wat fak life this ppl have ..... hahahahahah ,,,, chilll... be happi ... TOGETHER .... we make the forum BETTER.

Exactly, don't worry about the short term things like raider, try to understand the long term things better use of your time.

Words of encouragement from LCTITAN CEO. Their revenue and profits have increased in latest quarter ( to 5% returns), while last quarter pchem net profits was at 20%. So if pchem can still keep the profits while following the same trajectory, this discount day will be very profitable in the long run. I am looking at a 4.27% dividend yield ( which pchem can pay using 50% of its profits), so n at 7.49, if there is no structural problem with PCHEM, it will definitely recover and grow its dividend yield a few years from now.

CEO has told you this is a long term play.

I only know how to do long term plays in wonderful companies.

>>>>>>>>>>

Despite slowing of global economic activities, emerging markets and Asia, our key sales market, are expected to sustain their growth momentum for remaining of 2019," it added.

Nevertheless, LCT president and CEO Dr Lee Dong Woo said the petrochemical market is a long-term play.

All I can say is just learn to be patient and understand why your stocks went down and whether it is a temporary or permanent drop.

For me I believe it is temporary ( but will monitor quarterly report to know more). In last quarterly report it is stated:

1. Plant statutory turnaround dropped efficiency from 98% to 86%, and will return back to normal.
2. Price war due to dumping and trade war between China and US.

Compare that with the permanent PCHEM moats which are still intact.

1. PIC commissioning and full run end of 2019 still intact ( even after fire).
2. Net profits of 20+% ( compared to other local and foreign competitors like LCTITAN etc).

Therefore I will leave and relax and come back when PIC is completed and running.

I no longer wish to waste my breath with office despatch boy driving his myvi, let him enjoy enjoy.

As for margin finance, I have more than a few millions more to go before any drop in PCHEM price becomes catastrophic. If discount day drops to 5% of dividend payout, then I will pick up far more again.




>>>>>>>>>>
RainT Philip where are you?

faster come out, write something good about PCHEM
31/07/2019 10:25 AM

Calvin would rather pick Texchem than QL? Oh my gosh.

The funny thing about looking at asset based investing, t the more gruesome the business the cheaper it looks because of overselling. But a badly run business will burn assets and cash faster than you can notice

Averaged down at 7.49 with 50k shares

Sasbadi results out today. Go Go Calvin!

Yay calvin tan! Your stock pick is the best!



>>>>>>>>>>>

calvintaneng Sasbadi Up!!

This one very good!!

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/www.eaglevisioninvest.com/202040.jsp
12/04/2019 9:45 AM

PCHEM hit 7.61, giving you a dividend yield of 32 cents. If that is not a good deal, I don't know what is.

Stockraider might as well start your own blog instead of polluting other people comments. All is your comments now, others don't even have a chance to talk. I let you enjoy your taking and repeating past conversations. Let you happy happy. Despatch boys always got time check Facebook and reply blogs, making me jealous.

Have fun. I'm leaving this thread.

Opportunity costs should always be tempered by risk.

When discussing risk ( my favourite topic after going through so much hardship) I not only look at quantitative risk such as debt, borrowings, interest repayments, lawsuits etc from the annual reports...

I also look at quantitative risk such as project risk, disruption risk from internet and competitors, management risk, business risk etc.

As one of the people I have met during brk AGM who I really respect Ajit Jain said, selling insurance and gambling is the same thing. You value the risk, and if you understand the risk you ask for a premium if you believe that the chance of the event happening is low, or your returns from the premium received will outweigh the catastrophe cost.

For QL I believe eggs, chicken, fish and Palm oil to be the safest business models around. Very hard to disrupt. Huge market size. Very low risk ( which is why institutions are willing to put 50x pe).

On the other hand, PCHEM has a built in danger ( chemical explosions) that is mitigated by higher cost in quality and safety officers, while Gkent is low priced but has the built in risk of governmental contracts. These are qualitative risks which I need to weigh against opportunity costs.

Just as not all NTA is the same, not all profits and revenue are the same. The profits from a Nestlé and QL are far more resilient and predictable than the earnings from a myeg or a latitude tree.

Also on the topic of Ajit Jain, he has a insurance policy package for high networth people ( which I thought was brilliant). He has a life insurance policy with minimum 1 million USD that you can buy at age 80 and covers until age 127. So you can buy it and guarantee your children 1 million when you die. How brilliant is he? He is asking for 30% of the insured amount as a one time premium. If you have 1 million, you can then use 30% to ensure your kids inheritance and use the other 70% as a holiday package you no longer need to worry about. Brilliant idea.
How is he able to calculate the risk of you suddenly dying? As he expects that with 30% premium, he will be able to earn back the 100% coverage and more within 5 years or less, so for every year you live in after 85, he will make an outsized profit.

Win win on both sides. That is how he looks at gambling, mitigating risk.

>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Jul 22, 2019 8:32 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
What I mean trapped here is fall in love and never let go. With your skill of finding quality stocks may be you need to think about opportunity cost. Example: Comparing your potential 1 year return Yinson: Pchem: QL: Topglove: Gkent you can switch between the holding rather than going for margin finance.

Current Year Prospects
The Group are operating in global economic uncertainties as well as facing increases in their production costs and fluctuation in foreign exchange rates. Given the above scenario, the Group will continue to remain focused in their core business of design, manufacture, and sale of upholstered home furniture which includes upholstered sofas, upholstered dining chairs and upholstered bed frames. The Group are continuing with concerted efforts to develop new products, new design for existing products, derive better cost efficiencies and effective cost management across all functions. The Board believes that the Group’s prospects for the financial year ending 31 August 2019 would remain profitable.

>>>>>

Reading between the lines, the best time to invest in furniture companies is when the exchange rate is horrible and production costs are low. With the ban on rubber wood export and the exchange rate crash before, it was a very good time to test the waters. But when exchange rates and production costs become the most important issue of profitability ( study latitude tree crash), you quickly realize how tough the market is. The country with the lowest wages and chair supply wins. Previously it was Vietnam, now it is Cambodia. But the moment wages go up by 5% ( wages being your biggest costs), the entire contract can go from profitable to onerous very very fast.

My own personal opinion? I probably won't invest in any furniture manufacturer locally ( unless IKEA did an IPO) because 5 years from now I can't see any clear winner in the field. None of them have a clear, distinct business advantage other than IKEA.

Maybe one day local wholesale manufacturers will follow the path of IKEA, but I highly doubt it.

In either case, homeritz is not it.

Furniture stocks are actually very easy to analyze. You either look at peers like:

a) a company like IKEA that makes beautiful designs that is priced low due to flat packed design and industrial design from packing to installation to creativity. In short they use quality designers mixed with cheap prices ( at the cost of bearable quality), to become the most valuable furniture company in the world.

b) one of the wholesale furniture manufacturers in China that sells via Alibaba, in quantity, and with huge manufacturing space. Their goal is to become the lowest cost manufacturer and sell the biggest volume at the lowest price. Invariably you will notice those that succeed have a centrally located series of warehouses and factories and have a huge local supply of wood ( or their own forest).

Sadly, in Malaysia homeritz, liihen, latitude and others will always appear to be good deals but actually aren't. At first look they have very low pe, nice financials and good dividends.

However, the reason why they have low PE is the same reason why China doesn't have any major manufacturers but instead consists of many small manufacturers instead.

Here's the mental model, supply and demand. As demand goes up, the supply forces the market down. When demand goes down, the price increases. However the market is too saturated for furniture manufacturers to grow demand consistently. And with the price very visible on the internet but the quality of wood ( real wood, finger joint, mdf and worse) many people care about the price more than the quality of wood in Asia.

Homeritz in essence has not grown its revenue and profits much in the last 5 years, being a mature market, and therefore investors are unwilling to take bigger risks in betting on its long term growth expectations ( pe 9 and below)

I think the best way to invest in homeritz is as a cyclical investment where you just monitor and observe the average price of 0.7 or 200m market cap. When the stock goes below this, you should study more carefully, if it becomes attractive enough to give you more than 5% dividend yields you can consider picking up some.

Just don't expect jumps of valuation above rm1. The internet's age is upon us, and many companies especially furniture manufacturers will suffer the onslaught of oversupply of cheap furniture using Alibaba as a benchmark. Homeritz will definitely be under the hot seat

I believe markets have changed forever, and one more than ever must have the ability to identify moats and a company's ability to expand their moats.

Yes I think I will take kcchongz very wise advise. If you have said enough about INSAS, and still the belief is the same, then there is no use explaining the thought process further. If it works it works.

Peace, and sayonara.

Again, the job to do is to wait and observe. Feb 2020, when the warrants expire is when the big trigger will occur. Hopefully the share price will go up up and away, so everybody in i3 will be happy and vindicated.

Qué sera, sera.

I am only trapped in so much as my dividends far outweigh my initial investment costs due to multiple share splits that I am using my dividends to top up and do my own share "buyback" of QL stock.

I wonder how often INSAS investors buyback shares of INSAS or use the dividends to buy more?

Or are they worried of being trapped?


>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Jul 22, 2019 10:21 AM | Report Abuse

Dear DK66,
Repost my comment on we are trapped.
Hahahaha
deMusangking, I am trapped in Insas because I see Insas in the image of Inari.
Philip is trapped in QL because QL had given him high ROI in the past.

I have never once condemned others and called them names ( except for Stockraider which I do regret).

Sure, make money in bull run, cash out. Good for you.

35% ROI? Wonderful.

Any other fairy tales to share? How about the day you found the pot of gold behind the rainbow, or the day you found a talking mouse that led you to the castle?

Please, from the stocks you pick, and the way you analyze I know exactly the quality of your returns.

I hope your crystal ball works well to tell you when to punt and when to back out again.

Good luck, hope your investments do well.

FYI no one suddenly cashes out and stays out for 3 years without a reason.

This is called behavioural analysis. I've gone through it before and seen it repeated enough times with novices to know exactly how it goes.

No need to lie to yourself further.

Everyone deserves a second chance.

Sadly you seem to be repeating the same mistakes you did before. I would say be careful but you will think any advice that goes against your confirmation bias to be egoistic and arrogant.

So instead, I will just say: Peace.



>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by coolio > Jul 22, 2019 6:48 AM | Report Abuse

That is why I try to avoid ego people like you.

I make tons before I cash out 2 years back during bull and I'm back this year.
I'm glad to cash out, what happen to the market last year?, history shows it crashes every 10yrs,and I was lucky to not invest last year

This year todate, Im on 35% ROI, nothing to brag about but that's good enough for me. I don't have to invest like you do, condemning others and only think your pick is the only stock to invest.

Downline is I make money from stock market no matter what stocks I invest. I have my own way which has work for me for many years

But now I understand your thought patterns, why you are so critical. You also bought money in INSAS at rm0.95 many years ago in 2015. So your bias is to insult and talk bad about anyone who doesn't agree with you on INSAS long term performance.

I can understand that.

What I don't understand is why kids only look at the positives ( share price undervalue, buy!) But don't look at the risks involved ( Why is such a "good" company selling below rm1 for the last 5 years?), And the reasons for the undervaluation.


>>>>>>>>>

Stock: [INSAS]: INSAS BHD

Oct 21, 2015 3:21 PM | Report Abuse

don't worry, Insas is undervalue, will show its true colour soon..infact it is showing now..

Funny thing is, being right too late is also just as bad as being wrong if you don't know what kind of investor you are.


If you had bought shares in the "boat" at 70 cents end of 2015, you would definitely have cut loss and stayed away in 2016 when your shares went south to 35 cents. Very few investors ( definitely not you with your stockpicking pattern) are solid enough to stay invested or add more every quarter in one single stock ( especially if you are the type to hold 20-30 stocks in portfolio or buy warrants).

In either case if you did not cut loss and leave the market but stay invested, you would have made 4x you money the next year.

I would laugh at you, but since I also made the same mistakes in my youth, I can only laugh at ourselves for being so naive about stock investing.

It is far more complicated than just numbers and annual reports. Far more complicated than just using one or two metrics to decide if the business is good or bad. So easy to just assume growth rates and cash flow increases and make huge "paper" profits, just to see it all going south when reality strikes.

My advice: stay out of warrants ( added complexity and risk from time value, just for the increased profit - not for novices). Stay invested long term in companies with durable competitive advantage ( I stayed invested in QL, YINSON, TOPGLOV, PBB for many many years, adding quarterly after reports from my savings despite volatility in share price because in the long run, the market dominance is still there).

Traders and speculators and chartists rarely make it big without using other people's money. In the end the leverage kills them.

Most importantly, stay in school. Don't play with fire. Learn the difference between speculation and investment.

Good luck kid. I hope you grow into a respectful, fine adult and learn how to invest with care.

Understand your risks first. Good businesses usually take care of themselves.


>>>>>>>>>>>>

Stock: [MMSV]: MMS VENTURES BHD

Nov 11, 2015 7:04 PM | Report Abuse

If you look at their cash flow statement, MMSV has been making positive FCF, based on discount cash flow analysis with conservative assumption, with 5% growth for nx 10 yrs. I'm taking last 4 quarters FCF for this analysis and the computation shows that MMSV fair value is 1.41. Opsss that is 97% gain from current price!!! With almost Zero debt, strengthening of US dollar, this will definitely benefit MMSV. MMSV also reward shareholder with dividend.
MMSV is definitely a good investment grade stocks, so want join the boat? fast fast before too late. hehehe..

Discount Cash Flow Model
Valuation on MMSV 11 NOV 15

Current stock price $0.715
Share outstanding (Mil) 163,000
This year FCF $12,343
Next year's FCF (mil) $12,960
Growth for the next 5 and 10 years 5.0%
Teminal growth rate, g 3.00%
Discount rate, R 10.0%

PV of FCFF of core operations $210,000
Non-operating cash $19,042
Investment in Properties
Investment in Associates
Debts $40
PV of FCFE $229,082
Less minority interest $0 0.00%
FCFE $229,082
Number of shares 163000
FCF per share $1.41
Potential Gain 97%

You already stayed out of the market for 2 years after losing so much money in your "trading" ideas. Now that you win a little punting dayang and others you think you are good enough to troll and make fun of others who have invested far longer than you ever have.

2nd level thinking is a very important tool to have.

Which one caused your optimistic downfall that loss you much money and stay out of market for many years?

Was it signature international?

Stock: [SIGN]: SIGNATURE INTERNATIONAL BHD

Nov 24, 2015 1:01 PM | Report Abuse

we cant judge a company from just 1 quarter result, based on IV analysis on several methods, Sign is still very much undervalue, . Panic selling/ over react today after not impressive quarter result. I expect Sign to recover next year


Or was it geshen? Homeritz? Latitude? Presbhd? All of which you bought at the absolute highest point in 2015 and would have watched it crash spectacularly down through the ensuing years. Great fundamentals the kid.

Dec 21, 2015 12:44 PM | Report Abuse

I agreed with Icon, backup with some fundamental knowledge from KC and engage in i3investor, I can make handsome profit out of Bursa. Just look at Geshen, homeritz, latitude, presbhd. I have made many folds from these stocks

Perhaps it was.....

Stock: [ECOHLDS]: ECOBUILT HOLDINGS BERHAD

Nov 16, 2015 2:57 PM | Report Abuse

very undervalue..still plenty margin of safety

You see, learning is everything. You see a person's stock picks you know what kind of character they are. There are those you can learn from. There are those you avoid. SSLEE you can learn from in how he finds out the details relevant information. 3ii and icon888 on how to analyze and dissect relevant information. Otb on how to do momentum investing. I avoid people like you and stockraider who always promote but have very poor long term results in stocks.

Funniest thing is may when teo seng price was 1.38 you told everyone to buy before too late then it crash to 1.05. worse part is you probably don't even know why the share price crashed so bad. maybe your hero KYY forgot to tell you why either?

Another efficient market theorist. I only started buying PCHEM at 8.15 in February and now it is 7.60 where I dipped into margin to buy even more. My goal is next 5-10 years projections upon completion of PIC so I don't even bother with short term swings, unlike young kids who think short term swings from 8.15 to 9.30 to 7.60 is going "south".

The moment you buy dayang already know you are a small time trader.

As for most stocks went North I do agree, as my YINSON went from a 4 billion to a 7 billion dollar company this year.

What have you done with your life today other than following every scrap from KYY AFTER he had bought dayang?

You might want to learn investment analysis instead and buy stocks before other people go crazy over it.

Stay in school kids, you and your momentum investing.

Raider, you realize the more you as info about INSAS, the worse the company sounds right? You are trying too hard to convince and win every argument.

1. You concept here is basically saying that INSAS management care more about themselves than the shareholders of the company. This might be a valid reason why no one wants to buy INSAS shares. When shareholders can see that the company has money ( no idea why in Australia) but chooses to give poor earnings for every dollar of RETAINED earnings, they should give it back to the shareholders. Hoarding cash, investing in cash burning startups, not giving returns to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks is a quick method to destroy confidence in the company.

I totally agree.

2. If 5 years from now, INSAS is only making 60-80 million, from a net asset economic business value of 1.7 billion, on such a risky business model as lending, stockbroker, private equity, startups then I think I have better things in life to do.

Raider has no ability to understand risk versus returns.

That is why he thinks INSAS is better than Berkshire.

But cannot expect too much from sorchai who thinks hengyuan is worth rm35.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>


MUST BE FLEXIBLE & LEARN AND READ INSAS DEVELOPMENT LOH...!!
WHY MISCONCEPTION ABOUT INSAS LEH ??

The question that you need to answer which both sslee and kcchongz has not given:

1. Why is INSAS so "undervalued" for so long? As a m&a securities firm, it would be easy to get IB attention. Why don't they buy shares in INSAS?
This is a very simple question with a very complex answer.
Parkson is a 200 million company with 2 billion assets. You know exactly why the share price tanked. With so many good things being promote by kcchongz and sslee you would think you are buying a rm2 company instead of 80 cents. SIMPLE ANS IS THE OWNER HOLDING A VERY UNDERVALUE STOCK WITH ONLY 32.9% HOLDING, WHY HE NEED TO PROMOTE INSAS AND THIS MY ATTRACT PREDATOR MAH ?? IT IS NOT THE RIGHT TIME LOH..!!

2. What is INSAS cash flow going to look like 5-10 years from now? Where will it come from, how probable is it to calculate, how many assumptions do you have to make for it to come true? INSAS BUSINESS IS LIKE BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY, I SEE 3 CATEGORIES OF INSAS CORE BUSINESS;
A. CORE BUSINESS OF LENDING, STOCKBROKING, & CORPORATE ADVISORY WHICH WORTH NTA OF RM 1.00 PER SHARE.
B. CORE BUSINESS OF INVESTMENT (EXCLUDE INARI} INCLUDE PRIVATE EQUITY, VENTURE CAPITALIST, CORE INVESTMENT INTO LISTED COMPANY SHARE AND MANAGING & OWNING UNLISTED COMPANY WITH GOOD PROSPECT AND GENERAL INVESTMENT INTO SECURITIES & BONDS AND CASH & TREASURY MANAGEMENT- THIS THE AREA WHERE WARREN BUFFET USUALLY HANDLE AT BERKSHIRE & IT IS WORTH RM 1.30 PER SHARE NTA
C. STRATEGIC HOLDING OF ASSOCIATE INARI INSAS BIGGEST LISTED COMPANY INVESTMENT WORTH ABOUT MARK TO MARKET RM 0.90 PER SHARE .

INSAS EARN RM 60M TO 80M ON THESE 3 CORE BUSINESS LOH...!!

Raider, u do realize I hold boilermech share by way of QL group right?
Ql green resources 44% owns boilermech is a subsidiary of QL resources....

I also own gkent which is also a smallcap.

I would far rather hold boilermech than INSAS btw as a company which has a clear direction and usage of funds and their market leadership is very clear cut and knowable.

A company which puts their money in Australia and gives out our to Mongolian companies I have no ability to understand why, how and when they will prosper.

Even your ability to see only 60-80 million of profit 5 years from now shows how confident you are in their long term prospects or their cash flow generating capability.

I don't despise smallcaps.

I just choose not to invest in companies with no durable long term competitive advantage.

If INSAS is the biggest brokerage firm in Malaysia with the best reputation and long term clientele different story.

If INSAS instead of selling inari from 44% to 19%, but instead increase to 100% and became direct subsidiary of INSAS very different story.

If INSAS property development was started 10 years ago, hohup developed crown imago Sabah 10 years ago instead of only now when property glut occur, very different story.

If INSAS instead of investing in dgsb, decided to put their money into timecom 5 years ago, very different story.

But raider still don't understand what is meant by understanding future cash flow 5 years from now. Where INSAS growth will be.

>>>>>>>>



stockraider Opportunity coming for insas, it is kambing...just a few more mths loh...!!

Boilermech is not as safe as Insas mah...!!


Btw people like Philip & 3iii will be laughing at u on your boiler mech pick, these people despise smallcap loh...!!

Raider think boilermech is a good stock loh....but not as good as insas loh....!!

I repeat did I say you are trapped inside and you are purposefully trying to mislead others?

I said you have averaged down and are fully invested in INSAS so you will have a bias to protect your investment which is true. But did I say you purposely mislead others and are trapped inside? Anyone can see if you averaged down at 0.67 and the price went up to 0.80 you made money. In 2017 share price was 1.12. did you not average down when the share price drop if you are in love with the stock?

No thank you. You did not find a sentence which I said you mislead others and you are trapped inside.

In fact, what I was describing was the irrationality of investors who need to justify their investment philosophy to others. As Herbalife distributors definitely love their healthy items and swisscash investors complaining that the government is wrong for closing down the MLM scam.

I did not say a single word that Mr SSLEE is misleading other people or is trapped inside.

Which brings me to a very important lesson: 5 people look at the same balance sheet but see different futures. You look at words and see insults where there is none.

I apologize for your ignorance.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Jul 21, 2019 9:31 AM | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
Refer below post:
Posted by (S=QR) Philip > Jul 20, 2019 1:21 AM | Report Abuse
It is a known an obvious fact that from 2017 when sslee invested in INSAS his share price has dropped, and he has averaged down, meaning he is fully invested in INSAS and there will be a bias to protect his investment at all costs, similar to mexicans who protect Herbalife having bought huge stocks unable to sell at a profit. Same with those who are stuck in swisscash unable to see the gold bars or the promised profits.

Thank you

Find me one sentence where I said you are trying to mislead people because you are trapped inside.

I think you are mistaking me for musang.

Find it and I will apologize.

Find it not then you better apologize post haste.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

you call people trying to promote the share because we are trapped inside and trying to mislead people so that we can sell to them

This is not a competition or argument where the person that talks the loudest or capslock and repeats his sentences the most wins.

This is an information sharing forum, where we post up latest developments, stock analysis, our honest opinions and actions.

I have done all the annual report analysis on valuation, share price performance, cash flow, assets etc. Anyone who can count can do that easily. Nothing new. It looks like a no brainer investment on paper. Quantitative is a very simple method to measure value. But when the share price Vs book value deviate so much, the correct answer is not to buy immediately dumb dumb hold. It is to ask WHY.

The question that you need to answer which both sslee and kcchongz has not given:

1. Why is INSAS so "undervalued" for so long? As a m&a securities firm, it would be easy to get IB attention. Why don't they buy shares in INSAS?
This is a very simple question with a very complex answer.
Parkson is a 200 million company with 2 billion assets. You know exactly why the share price tanked. With so many good things being promote by kcchongz and sslee you would think you are buying a rm2 company instead of 80 cents.

WHY?

2. What is INSAS cash flow going to look like 5-10 years from now? Where will it come from, how probable is it to calculate, how many assumptions do you have to make for it to come true?

HOW?

These are simple questions with a very very complicated answer. This is why Peter lynch and Warren buffet loves simple businesses with durable competitive advantage. It is very easy to predict something with accuracy when there little assumptions to make.

I buy eggs, rubber gloves, government contracts, and boat charter companies simply because it is easy to project future earnings.

QL, I have 100 stores today, I know they will have 300 stores in 3 years time as part of the franchise contract, therefore I can predict earnings with clarity.

Rubber gloves I know the world market is growing 10% a year, and topglov has a 25% market share. All I need to understand is will someone else take market share from them? If not, their long term growth and earnings are very straightforward knowable.

Gkent I know for a fact they have a 11 billion contract coming in. I know their profit margins as PDP. I know their profit margins now as fixed price main contractor. I know where their cash flow will be coming in from 5 years from now. I need to worry about other things like management ability to perform.

For INSAS it is incredibly DIFFICULT to predict future earnings because they themselves do not have a clear direction where they have a big market share, so they try everything to see what sticks.

The real money is in predicting the future. But yes I respect everyone's opinion. Everyone has value ( even raider). But since money is my own, I make my own decisions.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Outliar Kcchong post up a blog about Insas and suddenly Philip so quiet because he respects kc chong's opinion
20/07/2019 10:43 PM

Exactly, Icon has answered one of the qualitative questions which kcchongz and sslee never points out.

No one will be willing to buy inari 20% block at this price. The will be a huge discount asked for sure to the future growth earnings of broadcom, Apple and indirectly Inari.

Only kids think if you sell one can of coke you get rm1, so if you sell a crate of coke you will get the same price as well.

Real world economics and story land rarely work so easy.

Probably why people who can't do, they teach and talk theory.

While those who can't teach theory, they sell online pdf documents.

Investing is rarely straightforward.

How much is your returns from this investment concept raider? Your are line a college teacher talking daily about efficient market theory and teaching graduate students.

But your real life results do not jive with your margin of safety concept.

Arguing for arguing sake. How much money did you make practising this concept in your stockpicking?

Did you buy more hengyuan at rm18, rm15,rm10,rm8 when your opinion of "margin of safety" of hengyuan at pe10, pe15 was rm35-rm50.

Did you enjoy your returns then?

Go fly kite la Coolio.....

Always talk bad about others, can't take others opinion, but no business opinion of your own. What a loser.



........


See how easy it is to just troll? Especially when you can't add anything of substance?

Especially kyy followers who dumb dumb buy because he bought dayang, and not enough capability to understand why a stock goes up or down.

The has never been a kyy stock that has not crashed in the long term. You would be wise to know that.

But dumb dumb hold la. Good for you.

Let's guide you through this SSLEE.

1. What is the revenue and earnings of melium group? What are their margins? How much dead stock?
2. What is the total market size of the retail industry?
3. What is the market percentage of melium group in their space?
4. Who is the top 3 competitors in this space? What are their 10 year revenue and earnings growth? What is the comparison versus melium?
5. What are the locations convered by melium group? What is the current performance and growth prospects and rate of new store openings?
6. What is the growth projections of management versus the real percentage growth of the business?
7. Is melium growing market share, stagnant or shrinking?
8. What is the intrinsic value of melium group versus started accounting value? What is the real value after deducting unrecoverable and unsellable assets?

That is how I practise qualitative analysis. What may appear to be a good deal in the accounting books may be very different when looked at under a deeper microscope.

Seriously, I hope you do well sslee( and raider). In your investments and your retirement nest egg. I hold no intent of harm on your stock, but my conclusions after applying those 8 questions to every business arm of INSAS ( and inari) leaves me with lack of confidence of the long term prospects of INSAS.

But who knows, if you can convince me qualitatively on the future prospects in INSAS ( and not what I can see today), I am here with all my money's ready to invest in INSAS.

What is the 10 year projections and past 10 year performance of melium?

>>>>>>

In 1997, the Melium Group underwent a capital restructuring exercise which enabled Insas to invest in the Melium Group and became its 51% holding company. The capital injection and investment in the Melium Group is in line with Insas’s focus to venture into the retail business and allowed the Melium Group to take advantage of the growing retail opportunities in the country. By combining the existing shareholders’s resources with Insas’ in the new business partnership, the Melium Group was able to position itself as Malaysia’s leading fashion and lifestyle retailing group. The Insas Group currently holds 43% interest in the Melium Group.

Is a business that gives out free car rentals and charges 2 sgd/hour really going to be profitable and beat grab?

My mental model has always been to find a business model where

A. Pay me, then I will build it.

Rather than

B. If I build it, will you pay me?

Any business that is not profitable is not a business. It is a donation. If there is an incubation period for the business, it better be something disruptive.


https://vulcanpost.com/667850/tribecar-rental-bto-carpark/

Insas paid up capital to start the business was 10,000 usd. How much it burned from 2005 to 2018 for a business in Mongolia I cannot for the life of me understand what purpose it had.

RED FLAG.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>

The Board of Directors of Insas Berhad (“Insas”) wishes to announce that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Insas
Technology Berhad had on 25 July 2018 disposed of 12,000 shares representing its entire shareholding in a
wholly-owned subsidiary, Vigcashlimited LLC (“Vigcash”), to Mr Sanj Natsagdorj for a consideration of
USD1,500 (“Disposal”). Arising from the Disposal, Vigcash ceased to be an indirect subsidiary of Insas.
Vigcash was incorporated in Mongolia on 7 December 2005 and its issued and paid-up share capital is
USD10,000, and its present net assets/shareholders' fund is USD31. The company is presently dormant.
The Disposal does not have any effect on the earnings, net assets or share capital of Insas and is not subject
to the approval of the shareholders of Insas and any regulatory authorities.
This announcement is dated 27 July 2018.

It is exactly this kind of thinking that raider cannot become a good investor. What is the point of winning arguments when investing. The only thing that matters is how your investment performs over time.

It is a known an obvious fact that from 2017 when sslee invested in INSAS his share price has dropped, and he has averaged down, meaning he is fully invested in INSAS and there will be a bias to protect his investment at all costs, similar to mexicans who protect Herbalife having bought huge stocks unable to sell at a profit. Same with those who are stuck in swisscash unable to see the gold bars or the promised profits.

SSLEE efforts to bring down QL doesn't matter in the long run, he doesn't own any ql shares and probably never will. Fact is, from 2017-2019, my shares have doubled in value and still keep their value quite well, paying me dividends while waiting the visible growth of family mart, Palm oil plantations and other business endeavours.

Fact is I have put a very important fact in INSAS inability to grow its business organically. If you can name a clear dollar figure and earnings note from management on where their future revenue and earnings growth will be coming from they themselves do not know. Tribecar 10x revenue, what is the earnings? ( None), expected just like grab cash burner. What is the revenue and earnings of numoni? What is the earnings and revenue of sengenics? All these are nice sounding "businesses" that have no profits and little earnings.

The simple true fact is INSAS is trading below liquidation price because it is unable to show a clear consistent growth in revenue and earnings.

And the simple true fact is INSAS will CONTINUE to trade below liquidation price until it is able to show a clear consistent growth in revenue and earnings, or the ability give retained earnings back to investors either via dividends or buybacks( the only way minority shareholders can enjoy REAL returns from stockholding).

I hope your stockholdings do well, I really do. I have no need to "win" any argument and merely seek to explain what I see and help future investors who use this forum to see how I approach economic problems.

In the end, stockpicking is about solving economic problems. If you do not know how the business will perform 5 years from now with a clear mind, please just stay away from the stock, there is no difference to gambling a hand of baccarat.

Let's start again.

What business arm of INSAS do you see doing well in 5 years?

Why do you think so?

What is your estimate total market size of the business arm? How much of the market pie does it control? How much investment dollars is needed to grow the business versus it's own retained earnings?

What is your prediction of the revenue and earnings estimate 5 years from now for the business arm?

Who are it's competitors? What are it's market share? Are they losing or gaining versus INSAS business arm? What should insas do? Is it doing it right now?

This is qualitative analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>

stockraider Correctloh...Philip is the type of loose cannon. sohai type of investors, he will slander anything at all cost, just to win a simple arguement loh.....!!

Gutter politics?

What is this, kindergarten?

If you want to invest in insas do it at your own leisure, no need to write long winded article to convince ppl.

If people put their own honest comment after you asked for a reply, accept it in good faith.

I have no issue with INSAS.

I just choose to call a spade a spade and not invest in it.

You have a long investment journey to go. Appreciatr every second

The answer is yes, I was approved margin 5m, and bought 500k shares of pchem at 7.61. but I don't think that is the reason. Reason is pchem too cheap to ignore, I brought down my average cost which is a very good


>>>>>>>>>

titus i think today up because Philip's margin facilities got approved.....hehe....
19/07/2019 1:21 PM

So how about ALL of your recent picks, sape up half cent every day, all talk bullshit. Past performance of you don't say anything no worries, yinson up from 4 billion to 7 billion any comment???

What's your pick my young friend?

Oh I forgot you have ZERO portfolio, but you talk the most.


>>>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 19, 2019 10:49 AM | Report Abuse

Your recent actual pick on gkent , pchem and QL not inspiring at all mah...!!

Tell Grandmother story how good is ur past performance, cannot be verify loh....!!

For that you just need to look at YINSON performance. 4 billion company to 8 billion company easily.

For my QL returns( 1 billion dollar company to 11 billion dollar company in 10 years), this year I have received far more dividends than my initial investment in 2009. As the growth story had not ended yet (thus confidence to hold at 50 pe), I don't find any reason to jump in and out of stocks, as I look to the business, not the change in share price. If the business is doing good, I will receive share price increase and dividends increase naturally.

For me safety of capital is also a huge huge requirement. Even in volatile bursa my shares in ql has never had a big drop that made me unable to sleep at night.

Also kc Chong math is inaccurate on INSAS performance. As someone who also does not have a crystal ball and unable to know exactly when to buy a stock, all I can do is try to understand the business and add more every quarter. As this is a more natural progression of investors ( rather than the guy who can buy and forget for 10 years), my record of INSAS would then become far less exemplary ( for the period of 17 July 2009 to 17 July 2019). In other words, lumpy.

If you could not predict the trading profits from IPO and m&a in 2013, how could you have know how the business will perform 10 years from now?

Answer: do you think a company with new management (Wong gian kui) and whose stellar investments are in startups like tribecar, numoni, dome and sengenics, will they be able grow the business in the future?

Thank you


>>>>>>>>>

P/S: Please tell Philip will he expect QL to give him 100% return within a year. Only qqq3 claims to achieve so by hoodwinked greater fool buying into his story and buy the share from his hand.
18/07/2019 1:10 PM

Pchem crash? How many percent down? It's a discount day nothing else.

PIC is still intact, and the "crash" is not backed by any announced results only analysts opinions ( like you).

Company fundamentals is still intact.

You are probably too young to understand the difference between temporary volatility and a permanent deterioration of business fundamentals.

Thank God for idiots like you, otherwise how to make money?