For me it is very very dastardly difficult. I'm just not as smart as Sslee, who is far far smarter than me in projecting future returns. it is about the age old question 1 bird in hand is worth 2 in bush,

I try to look at it from an owners point of view:

Answer 2 questions for INSAS business: What is my minimum, realistic and optimistic view of INSAS cash flow projections, revenue and earnings 5-10 years from now based on current competitive business strengths. Look to the future based on past strengths.

INSAS has a few divisions, let us study them qualitatively:

1. Financial Services (2018: 65M revenue/13M NP, 2017: 54m/19m)
2. Investment holding and trading (2018: 193m/3m, 2017: 217m/100m)
3. Technology (2018: 19m/77m, 2017: 11m/65m)
4. Retail trading & car rental ( 2018: 64m/ -3m, 2017: 64m/0m)
5. Property investment & development (2018: 1m/11m, 2017: 2m/5m)

The only consistent projections (with good accuracy) that you can make is for item 1, and item 3, item 5. Item 2 has such a big swing in P&L that you cannot in all honesty understand if they will make big profits or lose big money 5 years from now. Item 4 is probably (like grab) going to be a drain on resources for the foreseeable future.

>>>>>>>>>

So INSAS business is nothing complicated, any reasonable CEO will be able to maintain a certain level of profit. Cash rich INSAS is trying to use part of it cash to generate Income better than deposit rate (Quoted securities investment, Money-lending, Bonds), fixed deposit 553,678,000, cash and bank balance 114,632,000 and venture into new associate companies with new patented products/services/business to grow it bottom line and hence you do not see the grow in top line (revenue).

Thank you

the biggest difference between armada and yinson is the debt burden. Armada has a lot of contracts, but the burden of making profits enough to pay for the interest coverage and dividends to shareholders is already hard enough without the added burden of paying back the principal borrowings + coupon rate.
This is what is causing the increased chance of default for bumi armada.

For Yinson, no such problem exists.

as Jason said, for the next 999 years.

The reason for the first perpetual sukuk (bond) and why it should be treated as an equty and not debt: most bonds have a redemption coupon and a maturity period. In the case of armada, when the debt on bonds came due and the you have to pay the full maturity period + coupon, liquidity for armada became tight and the share priced crashed as the possibility of default became very high.

With regards to Yinson and why it is very VERY favourable, the perpetual sukuk simply means that there is no maturity period (on the 6.8% return yearly). Depending on how you look at it, as long as Yinson pays the 6.8% in perpetuity they don't need to worry about the debt of the bond. aka PERPETUAL. no maturity date, no call date, they can keep it going for a very long time without entering default. In fact, they can decide to pay of the debt 15 years from now when the long term charter contracts are done with.

In essence, treat it as if your father decided to borrow you money without any agreement, with the assumption that your new business will pay back your father 7.85% every year in bond repayments and he will not chase you for the full repayment of the principal amount + coupon. He is your father after all.

One day you will pay him back everything, but as long as you pay back that coupon rate every year, he will not complain to you mother.

>>>>>>>>

Yinson borrowing April 2019 as follows:
{In million Rm}
1. Perpetual Bond............1847.

a sukuk is basically a muslm version of a bond. Because they do not have riba or interest (due to jewish customs of screwing people over) sukuk is based on buying and sharing ownership of identifiable assets.

Hi qqq3, that is 10% of your reading capital, in my humble opinion very risky levels, as in 1999 I was also playing around at those levels but became greedy when the profits was too good, in the end return everything back and more.

In the end it all comes back to discipline. I used to lose my cool a lot also back then. Especially when a pattern arose, I follow that pattern and doubled my 200k. Feeling confident I thought as long as I stick to my pattern I will make money. Then when things terbalik, I got angry and chased with more money, 10 bad trades? Finished.

Sadly things never turn out that easy.

Trading requires far more brains than I readily admit I have.

Well done qqq3, well done.

If using my old method of trading safety, my maximum exposure to any stock is around 5%. Let's say I have supreme confidence and a casual of 300,000myr. I can expose maximum risk of 15k in one trade, with a 40% return, you have just made 6k. Wonderful! Another months kopitiam trade.

Really, where to find exactly.

You have earned more than that Heavenly punter salary after being shanghaied from Malaysia.

Speculation at it's best. Contrarian pro.



>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by qqq3 > Jul 10, 2019 3:48 PM | Report Abuse

up 37% T +1..............where to find?

Oh a successful businessman driving a perodua myvi around. Ok noted. I will stop making fun of you anymore.

Big difference between you and me.

Icon8888 didn't trust my investment portfolio so he wanted proof. I showed it to him as per his request. He asked for it. I showed it to him. He deleted his comments.

No one gives a lick about you or how successful you are. Or how your kids are doing in tar college. You volunteered that information on your own. NO ONE CARE about you or your family or how you started as a office boy.

A show off is someone who flaunt something he may or may not in without anyone asking from him.

Me? I just practise what I preach.

BIG BIG DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OFFICE BOY RAIDER AND ME.


>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 10, 2019 2:54 PM | Report Abuse

I thought this Sohai Philip like show off loh..remember he even when to the extent himself, stripping himself naked showing of his QL shareholding in the internet loh...!!

Come on if u r not the type who want to put a show, i cannot imagine why people want to perform strip tease to putting himself for a free show leh?...!!

Philip sohai, please look into the mirror, i see what type of person u r, b4 u comment like that loh...!!

Raider still stuck using one metric learnt from Ben Graham. Nowadays no more cigarette butt loh... Sohai. Those days you can make money because no internet all research must be done via Moody's and annual reports mailed to your house every month, and orders need to give phone call to your remiser. These days if you find cigarette butts is because underneath got land mine loh...

By you remarks I already know how much " wealth" you really have... You act like alot of small-time contractors and small pond businessmen I know who think they are very rich and very powerful.

It's funny how life works.

The very rich and the very poor are very transparent and honest with their effort to help you and give you a moment of their time to make you feel comfortable. The poor don't care about money because they don't have anyone to compare to and the rich don't care about money because they have too much.

It's usually the ones stuck in the middle who are always comparing with people with more and trying to get to the next level, they are the ones who like to act as if they have wealth ( but from their remarks they are just middle class) but act in a very low class manner.

This is a good mental model for you to understand using psychology.

If you are really successful, people will know from the way you talk and act. You don't need to put an act or show off how successful you are. In fact, the more you brag, the more I know you have nothing but a recond Mercedes with maintenances issues, a lot of debt, and a very poor record stock picking.

Sslee,

This is how you brag. Not with results. Not with portfolio and numbers. Just loudmouth and talk.

Unless you haven't noticed why I detest groupies like stockraider.


>>>>>>>>>>>>

Today i m proud to say i m a successful businessman as well as a successful investor mah....yes u could be a despatch boy b4....but nothing can hold u back, if u have the determination and desire to be successful and work hard & learn loh..!!

More than Half of my wealth are earn from stocks investment and the other from business loh...!!

My children will get half a million each for investment, when the they graduate from TAR university & they are doing fine in investment too...using Ben Graham intelligent investment method, always start off with Ben Graham Intelligent Investor method especially if u r young rookies loh...!!

I have zero issue with office boys and under qualified individuals who listen and ask honest questions with intent to learn.

I have issues with sslee who do not sell to learn but justify his own investments by bringing down other INVESTMENTs ( especially when one went from 1 billion cap to 11 billion cap and ideas revenue from 800 million to 3.6 billion). How to compare? Why compare?

Worse, I have issues with noisy stockraider who trolls a lot but had zero track record of investing but calls everyone who disagrees with them sohai and idiot and stupid.

Worse he CAPSLOCK everything and copies entire blog posts in his remarks.


Now that is annoying. And stupid.

And I am not bragging. Bragging would be holding a mccalan at a kopitiam, posting a picture on how much I made this week.

I am being factual when someone is comparing and using Berkshire to justify that his INSAS valuation is better than Berkshire.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Jul 10, 2019 10:36 AM | Report Abuse

Hahahaha 3iii and Philip,
People who brag about how great they are, how qualified they are, how good they are, how many books they have read and look down on less successful people as less qualified or an office boy and etc do not realize how annoying it actually is.
There are many greater successful people in i3 but they remain humble, open minded and humane.

So sad raider England not good.

I repeat again slowly for office boy.

I detest people who talk so much about Warren Buffett principles but never even own a single share of brk.

While those who understand what margin of safety is and compare stocks will realize buying brk is far better than many do called UNDERVALUED investments based on p/e and NTA and not on the buying a wonderful business itself.

If you want to do your own investing do it on your own merit and your own study. No need to add salt and vinegar say is kyy stock la is insas Hathaway bullshit la.

Face the facts, you are a minority shareholder of a microcap, while every single one of class A brk owner is a millionaire.

>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 10, 2019 10:33 AM | Report Abuse

Why raider say Philip is another very big naive sohai leh ??

U mean to tell me reading a good warren buffet is not as good as attending berkshire agm meh ??

Your idea of margin of safety is so kampung you should have your own booth at the circus.

Ok office boy. Good to know you can count with both hands. Time to reach you interest rates. Can you do fractionals? It's a little bit harder but with practise I'm sure you can do it.

>>>>>>>>>

stockraider Remember 1 + 1 = 2
2+5 = 7

Really? I doubt you have the guts to put that 300k into one single bet on London. You have to worry about risk aversion and loss prevention and safety of capital.

In essence, volatility.

For value investors, all I have to do is find the sure thing. One I have, I can put my entire net worth into it once I understand the business and it's economic advantage.

Contrarian pros can meh?

Then again deploying 300k capital and 40m capital are two very different things.

Haha qqq3 faster sell the shares and book your 12% gain and laugh to the bank. Trading can definitely make money.

Just don't get stuck like raider and turn trading stock into long term investment stock.

Sslee for someone who owns both Berkshire class A share and QL 2 million shares I know exactly what I am looking at and what I buy.

It is sad that those who repeat Warren Buffett saying the most don't even invest in Berkshire Hathaway aka sslee, calvintan, raider.

But then again they are the first to think that brk shares are overvalued and no dividend returns.

I OTOH have attended brk annual meeting and watched all the others on YouTube. Very informative.

While you bought INSAS in 2017 and buy books of Warren Buffett.

I attended AGM and held Berkshire shares in 2017 and watched it jump from 200k-300k as well as enjoying my exchange rate from 3.2 jump to 4.2.

Maybe you should stop talking one thing and do another and just follow Warren buffet instead of kyy.

Then again, cheap people buy cheap stuff.

I know that based on track record sslee and stockraider is very inefficient at valuing stocks.

Sslee has followed kyy into many stocks to his detriment.

Stockraider has touted hengyuan rm35 and followed Calvin tan into talamt so I have no respect for him either.

Both are followers and not critical thinkers. Despite being a speaker I doubt sslee knows much about businesses but like an employed GM ( the kind I love the best) he is best at noticing the small details and bringing it to the attention of his bosses who can make the big decisions in life.

Stockraider is an office boy who hides behind the internet and calls others sohai and idiot and stupid but doesn't have a name or a portfolio.

I would put both of them and London biscuit under the same category: stay away.


>>>>>>>>>

2. Do you think the market is efficient in pricing the above stocks today?

You were sacked for mfrs16…? That...is.... Interesting.

I let the something new today.

How to salvage? Unless you can change the management to be a more capable one, as a minority shareholder you can't do much other than watch the train wreck.

Even if this issue is settled the receivables and the lack of funds is a structural thing.

In fact even if change new management the issue still remains.

How to improve?

Unless you are talking about short term trading, then anything goes.

Why? Just stay away from gruesome companies, many others to invest in.

You are comment on ridiculous perspective.

I agree with nothing you say, because it is full of very weird thought process.

I am paying and holding today for a much brighter future for QL. I do not look at share price only in monitoring my stock, because it only serve to confuse me. I am paying now, for a reasonable understanding of what will happen 10 years from now.

How will you and I know what will happen at QL as minority shareholders? All we can do is monitor the strengths and competitive advantage today of the business, and try to ride the wave.

Do I know if the share price will stay stagnant or not? I won't know ( it never has for last 20 years.) But do I know the business will continue to grow? ( Yes it course with three new plants, factories and growing cash hoard and cash flow, every into new business family mart successfully with 109 branches and growing targeting Penang and Johor).

In comparison ( as you like to compare other rice bowl rather than focus on your own investments), has INSAS business model improved since 2017?

On this exact same date in 2017 10 July the share price was rm 1.10. for this price you paid the business was generating 347 million of
revenue and 180 million of profit. I'm sure you believed this good result will be a continuous one and every year will grow bigger. Wow and you found something with rm1.94 selling for rm1.10. wow! You must be a brilliant investor, by all probability the share price will rocket and you will make up for all your previous losses!

Wow indeed. You did not realize that the investment holding and trading made 217 million revenue and 100 million in net profit. Do you think this is a temporary or a consistent thing ( so easy to earn 100%?)? Obviously it is the most volatile part and the profits will be covered by huge swings in value which the market understands but you do not. You think that INSAS is balanced with many businesses (numoni since 2011 didn't make money, retail trading did 64 million in 2017 with zero profit, property overeating 2 million revenue and 5 million profit, inari 11m revenue 65 profit from share sale and dividend)

Basically the market was willing to take a 50% discount because it believed the investment holding and trading profits was a one time thing.

It was.

2018 saw a drop to 341m and 90m.
2019 will see a bigger drop with 134m(3Q) and 64m (3Q).

The question is how will insas business perform 10 years from now? What competitive advantage does it have, how is their management capability? Where will it's future cash flows come from and how consistent they will be?

This is all that matters. We ignore inari 600m because it is a known quantity since 2011, when inari was listed so you can stop repeating as if you have discovered fire. Everyone knows this and still gives INSAS a 50% discount. More today because you say NTA 2.54 but we are selling it for 0.8 cents.

Why is the question you should ask yourself and understand. It is not that everyone in Bursa is blind and only you are smart enough to realize you are buying something worth 2.50 for 0.81. It is everyone else understands risk and volatility and company management.

When something is selling for 60% discount, you don't just go and buy more like raider does, you ask yourself why that shop has been putting up that "closing down sale" sign for the last 5 years.

Same like London. When earnings and profits go up, you don't just go and buy more without thinking, how profitable is selling biscuits anyway. And why you need such expensive machines when demand is so saturated. Have I ever even eaten a London biscuit?

The simpler the business, the easier to understand. Easier to understand, harder to fool the numbers. Clearer the numbers, the clearer the story of the future.

I'm not smart enough for a lot of the businesses you buy. I stick to ship and bus charter companies ( YINSON), chicken and eggs ( QL), plastics and fertilizer ( pchem), water meter and government contracts (gkent), rubber gloves (topglov).

How much simpler can they get?

Is it fun buying complicated businesses which you don't understand and don't make you money? Biotech and fintech and trading and ride sharing... How do you even begin to evaluate business models ten years from now?

>>>>>>>>>>

As of your accusation, “Do you go around talking bad about other” I did not talk bad about QL, I only give you a different prospective on QL which you do agreed with me. “If I paid 11 billion for 550 million earnings? Pe20 future earnings? All day” In your own words you are implying QL share price will stay stagnant for 10 years for earning to climb to 550 million and thus PE20.

Eduspec is a piece of crap microcap that has no earnings, shrinking revenues and is the perfect target penny stock manipulators.

Anyone who buys this company has everything coming to them.

Then again, raider would love these kind of companies.

Only office boys can think all business is a standardized product. Meaning all net assets are the same thing. Meaning xinquan really got money la 1 billion,

Then all property developers in Malaysia is SUPER UNDERVALUED, ALL GOT HUGE PROPERTIES AND ASSETS, ASIAPAC 1 BILLION IN ASSETS BUT SELLING FOR 200 MILLION, TALAMT ALSO UNDERVALUED, KARAMBUNAI ALSO UNDERVALUED.

WOW.

let you win la. This kind of investing also boleh pakai.

Wasting time talking to trolls.

Go buy your McDonald's rm6 value for rm3. Enjoy your heart attack.

You mean if you go market everyone selling chicken at rm6 then some Chinaman there want to sell you chicken for rm3 you don't ask any questions just buy?

Are you fucking stupid or what?



>>>>>>>>>>>

If u go mcdonald u want to buy chicken burger at Rm 3.00 or Rm 6.00 leh ?

Of course u want to buy cheaper bcos more value & bigger margin of safety loh...!!

Sifu raider? Why is it undervalue for last 5 years?


>>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 9, 2019 6:43 PM | Report Abuse

Means insas undervalue....got big margin of safety mah...!

This is very sad. This will mark the day when one day grab is no longer an app for me to use, and grab has to take overly high risks in growing it's revenues with no earnings to support it's valuation and debt.

Debt will kill GRAB.

In either case, when red flags occur it is wisest to understand if the effects are permanent or temporary. This is the difference between Warren Buffett and us mortals.

Problem is, just because they found out that the salad oil crisis on American Express was a temporary thing, doesn't mean you will find wonderful deals behind every nook and cranny.

Everyone wants to be the brilliant investor who buys a stock at low price and watch it turn around and they become a hero!

Everyone wants to buy that INSAS at 67 cents and watch it become a 6.70 stock and say yes! I know how to buy stocks.

Everyone wants to buy that LCTITAN lower than IPO price watch it recover and say, hey I am brilliant!

But the fact of the matter is, the best investments are the simplest, no brainier ones.

The ones where people go,

Huh? It's commodities, no moat, why you buy?

Or the type that is so easy to understand it is boring and you are sure won't make much money ( but if you know something is guaranteed to not lose you money, you can deploy huge capital).

Yes, the best investments are the simplest ones where everything is clear as day, good management, boring ones.

- Peter Lynch ( one up on wall Street, boring company names)
- Warren buffet ( on jumping 1 foot poles vs 7 foot ones)

My advice? If an investment sounds complicated, has a lot of debt that you don't understand, runs a complicated nature where you can say for certain if it will or will not make money? Just stay away. Spend your resources and your time with other research.

How I choose to spend my time?

Take for example gkent, you are guaranteed a revenue of 11.68 billion for next 4 years( split between mrcb/gkent), all you need to do is to figure out if they can complete the job, and what the profit margin will be. You don't have to worry about debt ( covered by mrcb,gkent net cash position) and you don't have to worry about receivables and payables (government contracts are pretty straight forward, you can actually get a copy of the project milestone)

As long as you can minimize your assumptions, you can get an easier understanding of the business and what the numbers are telling you about the business.

Why make life so difficult?

Never trouble trouble until trouble troubles you.

Sometimes ego is your worse enemy in investing.

I am sorry, sslee that is wrong.

As a business owner first thing we ask is safety of capital, competitive advantage and future growth prospects. Anyone who can guarantee a pay-back period is either silly or overly optimistic. Those who sold to your boss the idea of payback period of investing in plantations when palm oil price at rm3k per tonne received a rude Awakening when the price dropped to 2k.

Those who ask for pay back period b and IRR will get whatever nice figure plucked from the air to justify the investment.


>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Jul 9, 2019 3:35 PM | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
As business owner the first thing we ask is pay-back period.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/192060.jsp

This is the cost of optimism.

Investor millionaire my ass.

Wow fake engineer want to start again?

Too bad he never learn how to ask questions.

Always buy in optimism, with one hand on steering wheel, they other frantically pressing buy button for Lotte...

I wonder what happen to the price after he drive so fast and furious to buy...

You very lohsoh, maybe you should ponder why hengyuan can become rm35? At least kc chongz has very informative knowledge. You... I really don't know and lazy to find out.

>>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 9, 2019 1:04 PM | Report Abuse

Remember Aokam, London, Megan media....it strike u b4 u knowing loh....!!

What is panlai?

Is that pandai laosai mix together?

No problem, I'm pondering how a 4 billion company becomes a 8 billion company. This one really kyy buy or sell no one cares.


>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 9, 2019 12:00 PM | Report Abuse

OF COURSE U NEED ABOUT 2 TO 3 YRS FOR INSAS TO GO ABOVE RM 2.00 LOH....!!
THIS IS WHAT WE CALL INVEST FOR LONGER TERM MAH...!!

BTW PLS PONDER ABOUT YOUR YINSON , IT IS HYFLUX IN MAKING LOH....!!

Ok raider u win! Insas 90 cents August 31 and rm1 Feb 2020. Sure thing!

But why not higher? I thought you said NTA is rm2.54?

Then again KC article is a pretty good indication of something that you read but don't ponder.

Instead of questioning my investment that I have built on since 2009 which has served me well until today with growing dividend, cash flow and wonderful growth, perhaps it is better to concentrate on your INSAS which if you bought in 2014 you will understand better what I mean.

OTB invested in insas. He pulled out. Kyy invested in INSAS. He pulled out. Your way of analysis by talking down other good investments instead of the simple question, why is a company with earnings, net assets of rm2.54 only worth 81 cents to Bursa public "INSTITUTION", is perplexing.

Do you go around talking bad about other competing palm oil companies to raise the reputation of your own?
That is not how investing works. Investing is about predicting future cash flows into the company and putting a value of the company on that.

And to answer your question: it is very simple.

If pt musim mas has 15% net profit margins on its plantations sector. Then it has the management capacity to expand into fertilizer business successfully. Then it expanded into selling frozen seafood and manufactured end user products for it's palm based products. Then it expanded outside of Indonesia into china, Australia and Japan. Then the management has the capacity to successfully transitioned into consumer supply? And if every sector pt musim mas went into became successful and profitable?

Yes I would pay pe50 for that.

Any businessman would.

If I paid 11 billion for 550 million earnings? Pe20 future earnings? All day.


>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Sslee > Jul 9, 2019 10:41 AM | Report Abuse

Dear Philip,
I totally agreed with Icon8888 statement: “Icon8888 always says I think I am right and I am never wrong”

By your own statement; “One should always exercise thinking like an owner trying to buy over a new business when buying stocks. Try to find out the competitive advantage, try to find out the risks” Do you practices what you preach? Tell me will any businessman buy QL now and pay 11 billion with profit of 216 million and profit growth to 400 – 600 million in year 2029. Do you know what happen to biological asset of egg laying hens when millions of egg laying hens cannot produce egg anymore? Is QL FCF great?

Not meant to be poking, but legitimate discussion. Armada gearing up to win all those contracts back then was a major factor in me not investing in the stock.

Raider is definitely right though, it was self inflicted.

In London case it is definitely fraud.


>>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by Icon8888 > Jul 9, 2019 9:23 AM | Report Abuse

this is a fraud case

no competent CEO will gear up like this

This shows how young choivo is. Up until 2013, parkson was a wonderful source of revenue, profits and dividends that you would not believe.

But back in 2009, who would have invested in Alibaba and Amazon?

It goes to show if you don't keep an eye on your investments every quarter and think like an owner, parkson becomes a more and more exciting deep value investment with wonderful assets and cash, even as the long term prospects start shrinking from 2013 onwards.

When facing low PE ratios and enticing asset values, always ask the question why? Instead of answering worth buy.

>>>>>>>>>>

You can barely think of one company in those industries making above average profits.

Using PE and PB as an all consuming metric was something I tried back in the 90s and Y2K.

Losing 200k back then ( almost 20 years now) set me back 10 years, a hole which I would never have come out of without a lot of hard work and sacrifice ( and luck).

Never again.

Always look at a business in totality like an owner.

Ask where the cash is coming from, how it is growing, and how debt is serviced. Is there management responsible? PE does not tell you this.

Is the revenues and earnings growing organically? Most of all, take a good long look at assets.

If me as a director were to buy an equipment/property/@ business (vigcash,numoni etc) and tell everyone it is an asset because I gave someone money for it ( valuation is from the other party) but that "asset" is losing money for me, I should treat it more as a liability instead.

For equipment we can amortize and depreciate. But undeveloped land also has a opportunity cost, same as a business.

My very first boss told me a very wise saying I remember until today.

If your business is not earning money, don't call it a business. It is a donation.

I keep hoping sslee and raider realizes this and thinks deeper on why his INSAS is always permanently valued so low. But I realize they still think of stocks as accounting paper, and not like how a boss would think when acquiring a company.

Sadly, these lessons need to be undergone before we realize the cost of not looking to the downsides first.

Icon8888 always says I think I am right and I am never wrong.

The fact is I made so many horrible investments in renong, transmile and aokam that I am so scared of being wrong that I look ten times at a rock before I even consider buying, knowing that one mistake will set me back 10 years.

It is far far more important to NOT lose money than it is to MAKE huge money.

Better by far to stay away from uncertain investments than it is to make small bets on variables.

You never know when you need to deploy capital on the sure thing.

I learned this fact far too late many many years ago. This was more than 13 years ago I learnt this bitter lesson.

All I can say is: to the depths of hell be all the directors of transmile. Their profit at my cost.

>>>>>>>>>>

Posted by 3iii > Jul 9, 2019 8:02 AM | Report Abuse

Case study: Transmile

Due care

Good one pjseow, I realized that with Sendai as well, where it's big order came from it's own CEO to build up the jack ship. Huge receivables from middle East but unable to collect causing huge liquidity problems.

That is why I really hope investors don't just look at simple metrics like NTA and p/e screen for low and buy. When there is a low price, you must always step carefully and analyze why the market put such a low price to the stock.

It could be lack of coverage.
It could be litigation.
It could be debt and interest coverage.
It could be not paying customers.

All of these are not covered in PE.

One should always exercise thinking like an owner trying to buy over a new business when buying stocks. Try to find out the competitive advantage, try to find out the risks.

Most of all, never just rely on one or two metrics and declare that this is a good business to buy.

I thought you say YINSON got problem?

>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 8, 2019 8:54 PM | Report Abuse

London not allow idss mah...!!

OH GOSH! YOU NEVER HEARD OF IDSS?

BUT TRUE ALSO LA, BETTER DON'T SHORT. IT IS ONLY FOR EXPERIENCED INVESTORS.


>>>>>>>>

Posted by stockraider > Jul 8, 2019 7:13 PM | Report Abuse

Msia mkt don allow u to short mah, don be sochai lah...!!

Posted by (US/CHN trade war doesn't matter) Philip > Jul 8, 2019 7:10 PM | Report Abuse

Ok stockraider you are right! Would you like to short yinson to prove your point?

Ok stockraider you are right! Would you like to short yinson to prove your point?

Excellent article.

Meaning you will not show your own trading portfolio? I see. Great and thanks noted.

Hi I am currently based in Sabah. As you can see from my portfolio page I keep a concentrated long term approach to my investments. I am interested in learning the latest knowledge from technical analysis ( I have been trying TA since 1996, but since 2007 I have been using munger's mental model to method is of qualitative analysis instead of just quantitative).

I maintain my portfolio here.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/120720.jsp

I am very interested in your 70%- 80% pickup of right winning stock with a proper trading plan. Are you able to share your portfolio for you claims as well during your classes? I would like to study your picks and your mindset in making them.

I see, so your pick a winning stock in 5 minutes class is also from an educational standpoint and not based on real results of past returns?

Ok noted and thanks for spending your time to reply. Have a great day.

P.s. I do hope you will change your class titles as it sounds very sensational and easily confused old men like me. It sounds like a easy, consistent way to make money.

If you have 2 opinions, one conservative one aggressive, as an investor you MUST base your analysis on the conservative answer.

Why? You hope for peace, but prepare for war. You expect good results, but you invest based on conservative results.

How do you know what the future results will be? No one knows, not even CEO or CFO. They have projections

You have margin of safety.

Klu selalu nak untung ja, nak profit ja, Tak nak fikirkan downsides.... Good luck on your investment future la adik.



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Posted by SarifahSelinder > Jul 8, 2019 7:58 AM | Report Abuse

Sarifah cuba try not to be too hard on the CFO

Tapi... lihat la u sendiri

Compare u sendiri PAT yg diberi kat AGM to apa yg the same CFO told Kenanga