Here is one from the Bumi Armada prospective...

https://www.oedigital.com/news/474956-bumi-armada-loses-woodside-fpso-case

Malaysian FPSO specialist Bumi Armada's claim against Australia's oil firm Woodside for a 2016 FPSO contract termination has been dismissed in court.

Woodside in 2016 terminated the contract for the Armada Claire FPSO unit that was operating at the Balnaves Field, offshore north-western Australia since August 2014.

Bumi Armada, via its Armada Balnaves subsidiary, deemed the termination unlawful, and then took legal action against Woodside, seeking a $283.5 million compensation.

According to a statement by Woodside, issued on Friday, January 24, 2020, the Supreme Court of Western Australia has now ruled in favor of Woodside.

Woodside said: "The trial was held in February-March 2019. In a judgment issued this afternoon, the Supreme Court has found in favor of Woodside and dismissed Bumi’s claim."

Worth noting, Bumi Armada had originally signed the Armada Claire FPSO deal with Apache in 2011. Apache then in 2015 sold its Australia operations to Woodside which eventually terminated the FPSO contract.

The 240-meter-long Armada Claire converted into FPSO by Keppel in 2013, has been listed as „available for re-deployment“ on Bumi Armada's website. According to available info, the FPSO with 30,000 bpd production capacity has been cold-stacked in Batam, Indonesia.

Now ... all over internet articles about bumi armada losing it's case. Either all those reporters and woodside, or people here get something wrong.
_____________________________________________
The Woodside said on Friday that the Supreme Court of Western Australia had dismissed Bumi Armada’s claim for compensation following termination of the Armada Claire FPSO charter in March 2016.

According to the Australian company, the trial was held during February and March 2019.

To put things into context, Bumi Armada signed the contract with Apache to provide the FPSO Armada Claire for the Balnaves Field in September 2011. The contract was for an initial fixed term charter of four years expiring in August 2018, with options for four annual extensions. At the time of the award, the contract was valued at approximately $357.5M.

Woodside bought Apache’s 65 percent interest in the field in April 2015, and the contract was novated to the company in May of the same year.

Woodside then terminated the charter for the FPSO on March 4, 2016, more than two years before the charter contract end. Bumi deemed the termination unlawful and decided to take legal action against the oil company.

At the time, Bumi said it had intended to fully enforce its rights under the contract, including initiating legal proceedings against Woodside for its unlawful purported termination of the contract.

On March 11, 2016, Bumi Armada’s subsidiary Armada Balnaves sent a counter-notice of termination to Woodside. Under the counter-notice, Armada Balnaves reserved the right to claim damages for the breach of the contract.

Bumi went further with the dispute by starting a court action against Woodside only days later. The FPSO owner stated in the court case that the damages for breach of contract would be quantified at a later stage and that it also wanted reimbursement for an additional sum of $66.2 million for work done and materials supplied pursuant to the contract, interest, costs, and other relief as the court deemed fit.

In April 2016, the height of the damages was disclosed in a $283.5 million claim which was submitted to the Supreme Court of Western Australia.

According to Bumi, the sum of $275.8 million is the amount of the termination payment to which Armada Balnaves is entitled had the contract been terminated without breach, plus any additional damages for loss of bargain caused to Armada Balnaves as a consequence of Woodside’s repudiation of the contract.

An additional sum of $7.7 million was sought for work done and materials supplied pursuant to the contract.

https://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/court-rules-in-favor-of-woodside-in-bumi-fpso-termination-case/

Try as I may, I do not see that as a statement that woodside needs to pay a lot .....
Ask Christine, here contact is there.
_______________________________________________________
BUMI CLAIM DISMISSED

Woodside and Armada Balnaves Pte Ltd (Bumi) have been engaged in proceedings in the Supreme Court of Western Australia (Armada Balnaves Pte Ltd v Woodside Energy Julimar Pty Ltd, CIV/1408/2016) with respect to the termination in March 2016 by Woodside of the services agreement for the Armada Claire FPSO. The trial was held in February-March 2019.

In a judgment issued this afternoon, the Supreme Court has found in favour of Woodside and dismissed Bumi's claim.

Contacts:

INVESTORS

MEDIA

Damien Gare

Christine Forster

W: +61 8 9348 4421

M: +61 484 112 469

M: +61 417 111 697

E: christine.forster@woodside.com.au

E: investor@woodside.com.au

Everyone here throwing numbers ... I am waiting for 15 cents as I missed the boat last time. In the meantime I hold on to my shares.

If there is one thing I agree with what is said here - no need to worry about EPF. That is a bunch of new college grads. No investment proweness.
Just two years ago they were collecting money to buy pizza and have a halloween party. Looking for costumes was the priority. Now, they manage multi million fund, and all they know is price targets from colleagues who were trick or treating with them.

I think we better face reality. There is no Claire reward coming. It is a fairy tale. Was good 2 years ago, when reality was far away. To make money, BAB has to pull their finger out of the a##, deploy the ship to the reservoir and start making money.
Everyone here long will be making profit then.

Introducing Bumi Armada Berhad (KLSE:ARMADA), The Stock That Zoomed 203% In The Last Year
Simply Wall St January 14, 2020
Unfortunately, investing is risky – companies can and do go bankrupt. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. For example, the Bumi Armada Berhad (KLSE:ARMADA) share price had more than doubled in just one year – up 203%. On top of that, the share price is up 19% in about a quarter. Zooming out, the stock is actually down 18% in the last three years.

View our latest analysis for Bumi Armada Berhad

Bumi Armada Berhad isn’t currently profitable, so most analysts would look to revenue growth to get an idea of how fast the underlying business is growing. When a company doesn’t make profits, we’d generally expect to see good revenue growth. That’s because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

In the last year Bumi Armada Berhad saw its revenue shrink by 15%. So we would not have expected the share price to rise 203%. This is a good example of how buyers can push up prices even before the fundamental metrics show much growth. Of course, it could be that the market expected this revenue drop.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

https://simplywall.st/stocks/my/energy/klse-armada/bumi-armada-berhad-shares/news/introducing-bumi-armada-berhad-klsearmada-the-stock-that-zoomed-203-in-the-last-year/

OK. Here it is My buy orders got filled right away. Funny how easy to buy now. When it was going up, so much activity and volume, and the range was blocked by big players. Could not get for 53 sens 2 months ago. Now anyone can get any shares at market price. But nobody does. When there is a price movement, all will rush in.

Well, I scrapped some cash and got another 8k for 0.495 ....
And I am not selling until 2019 fiscal year.
Good luck to shorts on buying back tomorrow.

Maybe I can still transfer my expense budget into trading account for top up?
:-)
IK cannot do it all alone against the pension fund.

Shorties and myself start buying now... We form a team by the end of the day. See price inch up ...
:-)
That 4k i buy sure makes the difference.

Sale continues. Great. Plenty of time to buy.

Yes. I am amazed by success of people here. Been investing for 30 years. 20 years in oil and gas international projects. But cannot come even close to my colleagues in performance.
None the less, if this ship flies, I will be very happy indeed.
I still have 4k to invest, and new salary is coming.
:-)
Cheers.

Well, I kept my word and purchased another 5k at 0.5 myr just by end bell. Seems like a bargain. No problem keeping it for a few months. All the political discussions and volatility, yet the oil keeps flowing. See you on the upside.

I am not sure about idss, but 5k purchase is mine. IK cannot do it all alone. Just got salary transferred. Took two weeks because bank name was not exact sequence as they want, got berhad wrong. And now I buy at 10% discount. What a blessing.
:-)
See you on the upside.

Hello .... happy new year to old friends. Still here and will even buy some more once my money gets transferred. Too bad i missed the 40's.

One thing that I see here, and that has been consistently bugging me, is the perception that prices were brought down intentionally. Even some analysts called it 'kitchen sinking.' It makes perfect sense. Insiders thought: let panic sellers give us their shares at half price. It is their decision. And they would strongly suggest that there was not much hope for reversing charges, they sell a few items/assets below value and ... watch the drop in price with satisfaction. I did not get them my shares. On the contrary, got some more. Sooner or later, reality sets in.

All the comparisons between Yinson and Armada here miss 1 point: Yinson has 3.5 billion of debt, armada about 9.5 billion. That scares investors away.

In any case, they decreased this balance year over year from 2016. And earningswise BAB is about 20% undervalued. Yinson is 80% overvalued.
That is why I sold off my yinson and transferred all to Armada.
You do your own moves.

You can find it on net . . . from yesterday ...
__________________________________________
Does Bumi Armada Berhad (KLSE:ARMADA) Have A Healthy Balance Sheet?
Simply Wall St December 19, 2019
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway’s Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says ‘The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital. So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Bumi Armada Berhad (KLSE:ARMADA) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company’s debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

View 1 warning sign we detected for Bumi Armada Berhad

What Is Bumi Armada Berhad’s Debt?
As you can see below, Bumi Armada Berhad had RM10.4b of debt at September 2019, down from RM11.5b a year prior. However, it does have RM1.04b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about RM9.40b.

How Healthy Is Bumi Armada Berhad’s Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Bumi Armada Berhad had liabilities of RM3.47b due within a year, and liabilities of RM7.83b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of RM1.04b and RM1.20b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total RM9.06b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit casts a shadow over the RM2.76b company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Bumi Armada Berhad would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.

Weak interest cover of 1.0 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 10.2 hit our confidence in Bumi Armada Berhad like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. On the other hand, Bumi Armada Berhad grew its EBIT by 29% in the last year. If sustained, this growth should make that debt evaporate like a scarce drinking water during an unnaturally hot summer. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Bumi Armada Berhad’s ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you’re focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Bumi Armada Berhad burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.

Our View
On the face of it, Bumi Armada Berhad’s conversion of EBIT to free cash flow left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it’s pretty decent at growing its EBIT; that’s encouraging. Taking into account all the aforementioned factors, it looks like Bumi Armada Berhad has too much debt. That sort of riskiness is ok for some, but it certainly doesn’t float our boat. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet – far from it. For example, we’ve discovered 1 warning sign for Bumi Armada Berhad which any shareholder or potential investor should be aware of.

This ticker is still below 50? Cannot believe. I was paying up to 54 sens in pre anouncement. But, the longer it stays in this range, the less likely return to 30's.
Let's wait for those who took the profit . . . Many are now realizing that the grass is not much greener on their new pastures.
:-)

They will come back for new year.

Interesting news today ...


DECEMBER 10, 2019
LUKOIL AND KAZAKHSTAN DISCUSS COOPERATION
President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev hosted President of LUKOIL Vagit Alekperov in the city of Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan, today.

The head of LUKOIL presented an updated report on the company's operations in Kazakhstan in 2019. The parties discussed the status and future development of Zhenis and I-P-2 offshore projects as well as opportunities to expand cooperation in future. Vagit Alekperov also talked about the first months of operation of LUKOIL's lube plant in the Almaty Region, commissioned in September of 2019.

Wow ... this is all full of surprises.
I have given up on trying to swing trade long ago.
Fundamentals matter.

There is no secret debt in the financial statement. Many smart people read those and comment if anything found.

Just relax and see what is coming 2020.
It is not about Claire. All is about earnings.
____________________________________________________
Posted by InvestorKING > Dec 9, 2019 5:57 PM | Report Abuse

Sold 2mil shares at 0.475, 0.47, n 0.465 range, waiting to collect back at 0.45 tomorrow

Wow ... that is some action today. And the day has just started for me.

I do not mind those drops. Healthy. All the up and up of past 3 months was making me feel it was a stampede.
But now truth comes out.
See the real side of people too.

See you at 60.

No panic at all.

Investing is all about probabilities. If the perceived odds of an event are high, certain securities will be priced based on those expected probabilities. The corollary is that when an event is perceived as almost impossible, securities do not price in any chance of it occurring. If that event does occur, all sorts of securities need to re-price—often quite rapidly. I like to spend my time pondering what potential events the market completely ignores. Of all potential economic outcomes, the one that is least anticipated and least priced in, is Bumi Armada performing as well as Yinson.

Now think of energy; it’s a crazy world out there and global energy security is no longer guaranteed. Prices have been suppressed for the past few years by excess production due to uneconomic shale—that’s clearly reversing as the funding has been cut off. Where do you think energy prices go if shale growth flat-lines or goes in reverse? What about when key producing regions devolve into chaos? Tanker rates are also expanding—that increases energy prices as well. Yes, I think about 20% up this year. FPSO charters will follow.

Think about what venture capital has done to costs. Thousands of businesses are losing hundreds of billions a year to gain market share in rather prosaic industries. Think about what Uber has done to transport costs or Chewy has done to the cost of dog food. These are all subsidized by VC firms so they can dump IPOs on unsuspecting retail bag-holders. As these businesses are forced to raise pricing in order to become sustainable, what will that do to consumer inflation? Won’t all sorts of sectors also gain pricing power, now that they don’t have to compete with someone who sells a Dollar for 80 cents hoping to make it up with volume? Isn’t the collapse of the Ponzi Sector bubble inherently inflationary? If yes, the investment attention will turn to the income producing companies, as Bumi Armada.

Hi ... quite a ride we are enjoying?

I actually see it normal for stocks to drop, and even enjoy small correction after investing. One needs to let other people make some money too. I bought some stock from others for 53c, now they close the short and buy at 48 from someone who panics. It is OK. I can wait. It is the churning that destroys value long turn.


I love the balance approach where both positive and NEGATIVE are considered. Good approach by Mikekin. Thank you. Although low for oil could be 40 $ per barrel, not 60. Short term, frackers are still increasing production by refracking wells, even with less new drilling. US is the nett exporter. But this too will come to pass. At the same time, Saudis threaten to make cuts to support overproducing cheaters. . . (that includes Russia, which they dont say). But oil keeps flowing into FPSO day and night.

An enouraging write up ...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 2): AmInvestment Bank has maintained its "Overweight" rating on the oil and gas (O&G) sector, and said prospects have radically brightened with rising asset utilisation globally, which supported service providers' improving results.

In a note today, the research house said while it has "Buy" calls for MISC Bhd, Sapura Energy Bhd and Velesto Energy Bhd, its top picks are still companies with stable and recurring earnings such as Serba Dinamik Holdings Bhd and Dialog Group Bhd.

"We like the recurring income business model of Dialog and Serba Dinamik, which are involved in operation and maintenance services while Dialog's earnings visibility is further secured by the Pengerang Deepwater Terminal project with its enlarged buffer zone," it said.

AmInvestment said the results of the companies under its coverage were largely in line with expectations as five of the eight companies came within expectations, versus two outperformers and one underperformer.

"Velesto Energy registered a surprisingly strong 3QFY19 net profit from a rig utilisation of 92% with only one rig undergoing mandatory maintenance while Dialog Group enjoyed expanded plant turnaround and maintenance revenues from Petronas' five-year master service agreement.

"As in the previous quarter, Sapura Energy disappointed notwithstanding a slightly lower loss stemming from minimal early-cycle fabrication margins derived from the huge central processing platform jobs for Sarawak's Pegaga and India's KG-DWN 98/2 NELP blocks amid a crude oil price decline," it said.

The research house said Malaysia's 9M2019 contract awards rose 14% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM9.2 billion following a lull in 1Q2019 and driven by multiple awards to Sapura Energy and Malaysia Marine & Heavy Engineering Holdings Bhd (MMHE), which secured a RM2.5 billion Kasawari central processing platform job, while Bumi Armada secured a 30% stake in ONGC's KG-DWN 98/2 FPSO charter.

"While 3Q2019 job orders rose 76% y-o-y to RM3.4 billion, these were down 15% quarter-on-quarter.

"Westwood Global Energy Group is projecting global drilling and well services expenditure to grow 19% to US$1.9 trillion for 2019-2023 from 2014-2018," it said.

I sure hope some money is coming from that case. Would rather not say too much as not to discourage other investors, or even myself.
Potential of 300 million payment is clearly a positive. Let lawyers figure it out.

In any outcome, I am banking on decline of shale oil (check), brazilian investments in FPSO (looking good), solving kraken filtration problem (how difficult it can be ... it is not putting a man on the moon) and Olembodo producing on target.

My strong instincts were to sell off Yinson and join here. Feeling good.

Above was about initial proceedings and surety claim by Armada Balnaves (AB) in 2017. But I get the gyst of it now.

I checked around on the net... initial proceedings were not successful as 'ship is highly mobile and can be disposed of.
I do not believe there is much chance. Read for yourself:

______________________________________________________


On 2 November, Justice Martin rejected all AB's arguments. He said while the initial claim was for $US7.7 million, AB had said it would seek additional damages for long-term losses that could bring the final payout to more than $US275 million, well above the ship's value.

Justice Martin said the action was a "mega-case" between "well-resourced corporate giants". He said it would be "extremely complex" and involve highly technical and scientific disputes. Woodside would have considerable costs in preparing its defence.

While the parties' pleadings looked reasonably straightforward – a justifiable contractual termination for alleged serious failure to perform, countered by assertions of an alleged repudiatory breach and consequent claims of accrued contractual entitlements pre-termination and a significant level of loss-of-bargain damages – there was "considerable scope for technical and factual disputation at any trial", Justice Martin said.

AB did not argue the surety was beyond its financial resources. On the contrary, it argued its financial soundness and good reputation meant a surety was unnecessary. Justice Martin said AB's guarantees were "ad hoc" and unsupported.

He could not overlook the fact AB's only asset was a ship valued below the potential final payout and moored outside Australian waters, off Indonesia. While the ship was unencumbered, "that may not always be so for the future".

"A ship is a highly mobile asset [and] can incur liabilities [through] unforeseen exposures arising out of maritime scenarios. Moreover, one-ship corporations or their assets are readily capable of being disposed of."

AB had no other assets within Australia or in Singapore.

The other key negative factor AB raised to resist giving security for costs was a guarantee from its Malaysian parent corporation, Bumi Armada Berhad, which was listed on the Malaysian stock exchange.

But Justice Martin said the guarantee's responsiveness in hypothetical circumstances of an adverse costs order was, prima facie, negative.

A draft bill of costs prepared by Maria-Luisa Coulson showed an ultimate projection of Woodside's trial costs and disbursements to the point of completing discovery of $577,256.93.

Justice Martin rejected criticisms of Ms Coulson's projections, saying they were "petty and cavilling", particularly in the context of "a unique civil dispute and its sizable accompanying documentary discovery magnitude". Her estimate was "not at all unreasonable". Given the massive financial amounts of damages at issue, the criticisms were "nit-picking", rather than raising substantive concerns.

Justice Martin rejected the potential for Woodside to seek enforcement in a Singapore court. He was concerned about Woodside being subjected to years of "hostile overseas enforcement action" if AB did not meet its obligations.

"They are not just hypothetical concerns," Justice Martin said. "No prudent commercial party would ignore such risks possibly jeopardising its long-term cost recovery after a trial."

He rejected AB's argument a large surety would set a dangerous precedent. "This case falls into the genre of mega-litigation, needing to be assessed by the high financial stakes at issue and underlying technical complexities," Justice Martin said.

"It does not set a future precedent for security in more typical day-to-day commercial litigation of a lesser magnitude."

And I checked woodside annual report. There is no provision for this case in budget. They have item other .... has 60 million.

Their view in QR:contractor performance related.

Production was lower due to reduced facility utilisation
and natural reservoir decline.
On 4 March 2016, Woodside terminated the FPSO
Services Agreement with Bumi Armada for contractor
performance-related issues. As a result of the contract
termination, production ceased on 20 March 2016 and the
Armada Claire FPSO departed from the field on 2 April
2016.

As for Armada - Woodside case ... will likely be appealed in any outcome. Supreme Court then to Court of Appeals then Highest Court ...
They better fix filter problems on Kraken for good rather then keep australian lawyers on retainers. How much they already charged ???

Please note that the shale industry in the us is imploding. The rig count is down by 200 from about 850 rigs. About 80% of companies suffer heavy losses. Production still increases, but rig count is a leading indicator of future decrease.
As a result ... more hydrocarbons will be produced offshore. Brasil to become #1 world producer.

Armada will not benefit from it short term, as no money for new projects, but operating margins should improve.

__________________________
1) Oil price is likely to trend up with OPEC + Russia production cut extension through 2020. They meet in first week of Dec.

I am very negative about the management. They took this stock from 3 MYR to 15 cents. But it is an amazing buying opportunity. Other comptitors are also going to face difficulties. Vietnam lease was canceled due to border dispute with China, for example, only 2 months ago. Stock dropped 2 cents.

Remember I sold yinson to be on this stock. So I compare.

Ah, I found them ...

Famous risks by Mikekim.
After rebound ... can be updated.

_____________________________
1) Kraken problems to resurface - maybe. 50-50. Who knows.

2) Kraken contract termination & thus the debt cannot be restructured to LT, therefore triggering a liquidity crunch - very low probability, client Enquest needs Kraken very badly to survive.

3) OMS contract termination for some OSV - leading to lower utilization rate. Low probability. The trend is that oil majors are increasing their capex and demand for OSV will improve (just look at Petronas looking to spend RM32bn in 2H2019). Armada has deployed 4 additional OSVs in Malaysian waters in 2Q alone.

4) Oil price tank below US$50. Low chance. OPEC+ won't allow this to happen They want oil price to be around US$60 per barrel, plus/minus 5.

5) Trade war doesn't resolve and escalate further. Maybe. Who knows. But judging from Trump's 2020 election, he needs a deal with China to boost his chances. Trump is all about holding onto power, he doesn't actually give a shit about trade war. It's all rhetorics. On this basis, I think there's a better chance than not for a trade war resolution.

Sorry, I think it was maybe Mikekim with the 'contrarian' list.

Tak1,
You also make a list of risks. I found it interesting too.
Please consider updating it when the situation stabilizes here, so that you do not create a 5th way down below 20 MA, or whatever it is.
:-)

Tak1, I investigated his options a few weeks ago.
He gets two million US dollars worth of shares. Company paid.
There will be about 50 million shares for him. I think calculated against very low price. This was voted during annual meeting.

One can buy a very nice present for this money.

I thought this compensation was excessive.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Posted by TAK1 > Nov 26, 2019 3:45 PM | Report Abuse

I hope the CEO wanted to buy something nice for chistmas but too bad he can't as the price is fu*cked because of his decision to release late.

I translated this chinese thing ... :-)
Now I understand...

It is a BUY

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/nanyang_stock_expert/239936.jsp
________________________________________
Expert advice

The third quarter net profit surpassed our and the market's predictions, and the ranges exceeded 13% and 7%, respectively.

We raise our net profit per share forecast for FY2019 by 8%, as Indian Floating Production Tankers (FSPO) Sterling I and II received a single tax exemption in the third quarter, driving the profit of joint ventures.

At the same time, we also revised up our net profit per share forecast for the fiscal years 2020-2021 by 10-11%, as the offshore maritime services (OMS) business improved, and vessel utilization increased from 55% to 60%; the daily rent rate (DCR) Increased from US $ 1 to US $ 1.20 per brake horsepower (bhp); and a more favorable US dollar exchange rate.

Nevertheless, our revised profit forecast has not fully reflected the cost savings of the Perdana tanker, which means that the profit forecast has the potential to be revised up.

Based on the category-wise aggregate valuation (SOTP) of the past 12 months, we revised up our target price from 45 sen to 62 sen, which is equal to 10 times the PE.

As for the company's downside risks, it includes lower than expected use of offshore support vessels (OSVs), delayed dispatch of subsea vessels, and suspension of existing FSPO contracts.

Profit taking finished.
6 or so investor banks upgraded target price.

Clients with money look for investments, and this is a large percentage of KLSE intex. Funds will be buying more to reflect new share of index by Armada. This share is now 3x more from the bottom.
So funds have to buy in.

People took profit. Good. Congrats Paktua.

I bought more.

Reason returns with new buyers in.

So source of loss can be converted into profit in the near future.

I so regret all money already invested.
:-)

Whether it is 48 or 58 ... you should be selling at about 80 in 3 months ... Early next year.

For those cheering sale of the OSV vessels ... It is possible to hit utilisation rate of 90% nowadays. Read Lloyd's report.

Bumi Armada third quarter utilisation rate rise to 58% amid fleet optimisation
Higher spec vessels seeing greater uptake but there remains a base of charterers continuing to take cheaper, low spec OSVs. Floating production units however provided a steady revenue base as the group stayed in the black in the third quarter
25 Nov 2019

Meanwhile compatriot offshore player Dayang saw vessel utilisation at its OSV unit Perdana Petroleum hit 91% from 79% in the second quarter, in line with the increased work scope and synergies with its parent

https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1130108/Bumi-Armada-third-quarter-utilisation-rate-rise-to-58-amid-fleet-optimisation

All the action today made me want to buy more shares.
I know that those analysts cannot form own thoughts and copy statements and old cliches.

Now, I look at my investments and think of what can be utilized to buy more of those shares.

A few determined investors can make the difference.

PS

This is NOT an endorsement of the company management but faith in malaysian workers at BAB.

I bought at 53 to 54 this week as I believed strong results.
No regrets as results came is as expected. We make bets on results, market price follows eventually.

In the end ... those few cents lost are no big deal. There was a chance of 60+ today with those results. But congrats to those buying at discount. Market goddess is a capricious one.

With Kraken improvement we will make it to 1 MYR in time. I am unloading then. This management team can ruin everything when play is easy, but should continue fighting for survival this year.

Save on commissions by holding. Churning gets you nowhere.
:-)

@armadatuah2017
Thanks for thinking and responding about this drop yesterday.
I also remember that it took 12 hours for market to react. BBC had thistle report in the afternoon UK time, market responded afternoon next day KL time.
Maybe it was just profit collection. People new that earnings expectations were high... All priced in.

Here is Kraken specs from BAB web.
It says 80k, but I remember that it was supposed to deliver only 50k.
Maybe wells and subsea limitation. And it was water injection, not gas.

For a good stock closing tomorrow.

Armada Kraken
Technical Specification
First Oil June 2017
Oil Production capacity 80,000 bopd
Storage capacity
600,000 bbls
Gas Handling
20 MMscfd
Water Production 275,000 bwpd
Water Injection 275,000 bpd

Lets hope that it is 38.5k since may, and 34.5k was for the whole year as it says in announcement. I keep my fingers crossed for 38.5k. New Guys there on Kraken (after 5 team leads fired) ... you can do it. You are there to produce. Stock price will then take care of itself.

Extra 5k dayily is 5k x 60 = 300 000 USD every day. Not bad. That may be close to half the charter rate. Like making any profit or losing. I think charter rate is 500k for new vessel like this one.
I am sure company can use extra 300k daily. They can hire a senior finance guy to refinance debts with that. 10 finance guys.

Maybe this drop was because a fund manager saw this small number of 34 and dumped 20 millions. It all happened within minutes.


______________________________________________________
Kraken has averaged gross production of 34,286 barrels of oil per day in that period, and, has achieved improved efficiency, EnQuest noted.

@Janson King

38.5k would already be promising. Eventually they will stop those maintenance shutdowns. As I remember it, bottlenecking was injection systems not working that good. Usually that is gas compressor issue. Need a better specialist.

It is interesting how they invent good sounding words. I remember in media release they said 'visible' improvement. Sounds better than saying 38.5 now, need 50+

To the next up wave.

Remember guys, do not sell at the peak.
Leave some profit for the other guy.

Otherwise, he will NEVER buy from you again.
:-)

Paktua acted generously. Could have kept to 0.555 ... but let someone else get the profit too. That is all about sharing.

Kraken news ... more important that daily dip. The dip was needed.

I keep thinking about Kraken. 34k boed is not very good. But they say 90% online .... I believe 90% is just the last few months, so they selectively picked up a period just after shut down, not full 10 months of the year. 34k production probably includes spring shutdown. Anyway, small improvement, or at least not worse.

Enquest needs some positive news after leak. They cannot go after Armada. They chose Armada that underperform. They also look bad if they have Armada issue, leak, debt. So we benefit from a bit of a cover up. Production low but above expectation and they will be OK ... Maybe.

:-)
_______________________________________________________

Kraken has averaged gross production of 34,286 barrels of oil per day in that period, and, has achieved improved efficiency, EnQuest noted....
Production efficiency at Kraken has been over 90% in the last few months.”

Very good news about Enquest K3.
However, I remember that the target was 50k bopd.
30k still low.

But they see happy. Maybe targets revised. Maybe someone can clue us in. Good or not so ???
_____________________________________________
“Production at the end of October was 68,501 Boepd, with Kraken in particular performing strongly. Production efficiency at Kraken has been over 90% in the last few months.”
Kraken has averaged gross production of 34,286 barrels of oil per day in that period, and, has achieved improved efficiency, EnQuest noted.

All the talk about 50's and I see 49
Welcome back forties.

Now, I made big, BIG mistake it seems.
There must be a good reason.

But let's wait and see longer term.

Someone here said .... report on Nov 19 - Good
Report on Nov 22 - Bad

Time is not working for holders.
Even paktua removed his troops.

I went even deeper in to stay long term.


Even 20 million profit is OK, but no red numbers please.