I checked lists of investors in annual reports. Out of 30 biggest shareholders, there are only 3 individuals, position 24 and further down. I doubt they have even 1%. (0.7% to be exact)
Nobody has more than 20 million shares, unless Wei is a family name.

So shorties are miniscule compared to institutions. They ride the wave, but sure not create it.

So, unless we have those guys here, no need to worry about shorties ... I think 'Wei' is a family name ... not sure which is family name.

Open info - not releasing any secrets here. Annual report 2018:

24 Tan Yu Wei 18,450,000
29 Seng Siaw Wei 13,000,000 0.22
30 Tan Yu Yeh 13,000,000 0.22

I think I bought too much of this stock. But it was the only one I had in my tiny portfolio, which was at loss (I paid about 1 MYR). So I was so keen to turn loser into a winner.

Even if it goes down due to insiders already pricing in results - it was the best decision I could made. Can still win long term.

Many thanks to all investors for good input. I do not mind opinion of shorties at all too. So including them. After all, one can only decide upon looking at risks, not just potential.

One more thing about shorties ...

Seems to me like insiders know the results already. If results are as good as they expect ... the stock may actually pull down a bit. They already loaded to the till and will be selling.
:-)
Where else is the 20% increase from?

In any case, I added some longer term.

Banditos:
I found on Jobstreet.
Armada has opening for Senior Manager, Corporate Treasury.
Responsibility #1:
Procure financing...
rest is blah blah blah

If they can get right guy, it could be worth millions in saved interest costs ...

Posted by Banditos > Nov 19, 2019 6:10 PM | Report Abuse

armada 15c in the making. kikiki
_________________________________________________________
This is very positive. If Yinson can refinance and have oversubscription to their bonds, so can armada. They will not get deal as good, but 45% cash was left on the table. That means that the major risk may be taken care of if BAB will go for similar exercise.
I remember they were hiring financial guy last month. Search the web.

I read with great interest. Thank you.

Thanks again for recomendation Superpanda.
Good Luck over next few weeks.

Good earnings by competition ... double digits ... also others similar... as I read a couple of reports.

https://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2019/11/16/liza-i-ii-fpsos-are-cash-cows-for-exxons-builders-as-brazil-places-their-fpso-order-on-hold/

Dutch floater specialists, SBM Offshore—the company that has secured a contract with ExxonMobil Guyana, for the construction of several Floating, Production, Storage and Offloading Vessels (FPSO)—has reported double digit profit margins, earning more than $1.4B already for this year.
accessed loan facility for another US$1.1B—the good news stemming primarily from its operations related to the Guyana Stabroek Block, with the construction of two FPSOs – the Liza Unity and Liza Destiny (for the Liza I&II oil fields.)
Plans and contracts are already underway for a third FPSO, the Liza Prosperity.

Superpanda .. . I am with an investment bank but already decided to move to online brokerage. Will try to transfer all the shares and sell through them.
I pay for service, but get mostly hassle.

Last week I asked to buy my shares for below 0.50 and after waiting all week only very small amount filled. I was unhappy and I called the dealers. I think they did not watch or did not put bids properly. They told me they were 25 million queues on buy and 6 million sell. Next hour all reverse, but still multi million clients blocking it for others. I simply could not get it.

So this week I told them to buy certain amount up to 0.60. And they buy at 0.525. Seems like nothing gets to me on the dips (daily lows). I get shares by paying top price.
Dips are all controlled by big buyers.

So you have to pay premium price if you are ikan bilis like me. It is more of reality than manipulation.

Buyer at 52, seller at 525 and bids are more than 5 million ... so nobody can buy or move stock now. Is is what IK calls operator manipulations?

So, seems like nobody can buy any shares at all out of this range.

I am positive on earnings, but I think they are priced in already. Somebody knows and acts on it.

I see 9 out of 10 last blocks in green ... but the volume dried up and price is down for the day. Not as bullish as last week.

I love this movement and all, but THERE WAS NO RELEASE OF ANY NEWS.

I checked internet, all over. Nothing new.

Makes me a bit uncomfortable.

Sure it was not shorties covering. Bids in million of share blocks.

Everybody so happy here.

Time to take some profit off the table.

:-)

Good luck to all.

Someone hit hard at 2 mln force and brought it down 1%

I still wait for the confirmation of my 5k share purchase at this price. Maybe got bypassed again by operator.

So today johnwick is a winner. He announced it a day ahead about selling at 0.5 and delivered. Good.

Shorties have to make a living too.

I have no reply from brokers. Will queue to buy more tomorrow.
As a small fish I got it from him at 0.49. Thank you.

John has a profit, I will keep the shares.

Make your own projections. . . here is the relevant part ...

Group won an FPSO conversion job from Shapoorji Pallonji and Bumi Armada, as well as a repeat FPU order from Shell. The new Shell FPU project is for the Whale field in the Gulf of Mexico. It comes after the Shell Vito FPU secured last year and now under construction at Tuas Boulevard Yard. As we take on the Whale FPU project, we will be harnessing considerable synergies from the ongoing Vito project.
Year-to-date new contracts amount to $845 million, compared to $730 million in the same period last year.
Siccar Point Cambo Field FPSO – customer has selected Sevan cylindrical hull solution and engaged us for an exclusive FEED study. This puts Sembcorp Marine in the prime position to clinch the project once Siccar Point and their partners move ahead with the Final Investment Decision.
With $845 million new orders thus far in 2019, our net order book now stands at $2.42 billion, excluding the Sete Brasil drill ships.

Sebcorp Marine posted loss despite Bumi Armada and shell orders. Actually business was down till Sep 2019.
_____________________________________________
Sembcorp Marine posts 9M 2019 net loss of $59 million ...
https://www.sembmarine.com › stock-exchange-announcements
7 hours ago - ... an FPSO for Shapoorji Pallonji Oil and Gas and Bumi Armada;; Conversion / Upgrade of 3 Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU) / Floating Storage ...

By the way, I got my salary on Monday. Now in queue to load up another 5k of BAB. So I put my money where my mouth is.
PS
It was impossible for me to buy yesterday. Somehow big lots come by and mine goes unfilled. I think those are orders 'sell all or none' where right hand sells to left.
I am learning from people here.
:-)
Operator forcing range trades to pick up shares of shorties, IK?

Normally I do not reply to people here to avoid personal.
But I think 4.55 tp is completely unrealistic.
There are 5 times as many shares in BAB than Yinson. So it should be 5 times cheaper. Yinson maxed out at 7. i know this stock, had it for 5 years. Even Brazil 1 bln contract causes it to drop now.
So BAB realistic is 1 myr or so, when confluence of good news happens.
_________________________________________________________________

Sure Tuah..

I will not change my profile...

Will keep it beyong 0.60...

My long term TP is still 4.55

Remember if Yin can do, so can Arma..

Cheers!

If any investors are like me, we enjoyed a sizable profit and now the temptation to convert it into a real gain is strong. Would go back in at lower valuations. But that will likely take time.
I was losing money on this stock for 3 years or so. It was painful. Lesson learnt. Now on sidelines...

Let the insiders buy. Or at least stop dumping.

If any investors are like me, we enjoyed a sizable profit and now the temptation to convert it into a real gain is strong. Would go back in at lower valuations. But that will likely take time.

I also do not believe in Trans Caspian Pipeline. I worked in the region. I spent 5 years on Sangachal terminal which is supposed to get this pipeline. The owners do not like competition, and bp (British Petroleum) is not working with companies as small as BA. They take Saipem, Bechtel, Technip, etc. Azeri people do not want competition for their hydrocarbons. Their pipeline capacity is already filled up to max (turkey pipelines). I think they may start injecting drag reducing agents to push more oil through 2k of pipeline. And that was years ago.

Today SMB offshore got contract for 3rd FPSO for exxon guyana.
In Brasil auctions some MOL get no bids. (Mining Oil Lease)
That today.

Seems like there is too much business and not enough capacity.
If only BAB could improve their credit - more contracts could come.

20 bln order book at low prices may not be such a good thing.

Ahhh, Investor Strategy
I admit, I bought some at 0.49 ... this was a big mistake.
Now it is approaching this price and I have the urge to add.
Maybe look for another MYR 10k to get another 5k of BAB and keep it?

Is this how most investors are thinking?

Not all so stupid, I started to fill up at 0.22.

Seems to me that after 0.50 myr will move up and establish new base.
Had this with carimin at 1 myr. Once crossed, never got back.
That was two months ago.

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 7): Shares in Velesto Energy Bhd (Velesto) and Bumi Armada Bhd rose 2.6% and 1.11% in active trade to 39.5 sen and 45.5 sen respectively at mid-morning today.

Both stocks were among the top active across Bursa Malaysia today.

UOB Malaysia analyst Kong Ho Meng pointed out that the leading indicator — the jack-up rig count — has seen an increase from earlier in the year, pointing to improvement in upstream activity.

On the other hand, the share prices of these companies were driven by positive leading indicators, as well as national oil firm Petronas’s guidance of higher capital expenditure (capex) in the latter half of the year.

Kong said the jack-up rig count across Malaysia and the Joint Development Area have increased from nine in February to 16 in September this year.

“However, whether the climb in O&G stocks can be sustained depends on the upcoming Petronas activity outlook for 2020-2022, likely to be released in December", he said.

“Otherwise, stock earnings might decline and investors should take profit,” he said.

In a recent note dated Nov 4, Affin Hwang Capital analyst Tan Jianyuan had advocated for investors to take profits amid the sector run-up, as the fourth and first quarters of the year are seasonally weak periods amid the monsoon.

He said that corporate earnings will be the focus this month and that maintenance and rig players could post stronger third-quarter results, benefiting from higher job flows.

Tan said the research house prefers companies with more exposure to brownfield work with good earnings visibility, including Dialog Group Bhd, Serba Dinamik Holdings Bhd, Velesto, Bumi Armada and Kelington Group Bhd.

“However, in view of the recent sector run-up and some stocks under our coverage nearing its fair values, we recommend to take profit on upcoming strong third quarter results announcements as the fourth and first quarters are seasonally weak due to monsoon,” he said.

I feel more comfortable buying this stock at 40+ rather than 20+
Two months ago the risk of some manipulators destroying this company was higher. Now it will be more difficult to run it to the ground. At least 2 times as much to short substantially. So like IK and some other mature investors, I will happily pay 50+ in the future. Hopefully not too soon.
:-)
In my opinion it is coming and even most destructive management types at BAB cannot stop it.

Happy at 45.

I bought another 5000 shares at 0.45 MYR. Running out of money.
:-)
But my shares are not going to be sold back this year. So whoever took profit, will not buy it cheaper from me in the next days.

Unlike others here, I do not care about settlement from Armada Claire much. I bank on them fixing injection systems and pumping more oil on Kraaken FPSO. That is the way to win.

No news. No activity. Momentum broken. And the stock price is higher again. Despite insider sales and being so much up in the past year. Someone knows something that I do not.

No news. No activity. Momentum broken. And the stock price is high already. So volume declines and we have this ...

I have to admit that I like the fact that some people announce their decision ahead of transaction.
Looks like IK has been right and the dip is here. He will get his profit.

I am also queening at 0.445 and despite seeing trades in this range I got nil (0) shares so far.
Fingers crossed. 1 hour left.

A few astute investors here comment about the fund's selling ... I notice they bought back what they sold. Seems that even fund want to make money on daily gyration. Explains why I cannot get to lowest or highest daily price even after queueing for a day or 2 days. And they keep the range.

___________________________________________________________
04-Nov-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 600,000 shares on 30-Oct-2019.
30-Oct-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 350,000 shares on 24-Oct-2019.
30-Oct-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 330,000 shares on 24-Oct-2019.

Many thanks about the news regarding Karoon and Claire, AT2017. The good thing is that this is not publicised officially, so does not affect settlement. Normally, you only get compensation for loss. Not if you mitigate.

Like if you nearly get hit by a car, you cannot sue for medical cost, because you were not hurt. So having vessels under new contract has impact on size of damages awarded. So far Claire is idle and there is sizable damage. No contract for years ... sounds good in courts.


____________________________________
Posted by armadatuah2017 > Nov 4, 2019 6:18 PM | Report Abuse

@robert waters Karoon gas field is for Armada Claire deployment JV with Subsea 7 and one more company.

Well, I am out of Carimin and moving to Armada.
Good Luck to all fellows here.
It has been great 5 years.
Yes, 5 years !!!
4 years and 10 month this stock was below what I paid for, so I sure feel good to be out.
Good luck to those who bought cheaply and can stay a few more months.

All the data looked good, now ... is it already included in price???
I think it is.

Well, I am out of Yinson and moving to Armada.
Good Luck to all fellows here.
It has been great 5 years.
Yes, 5 years !!!
Yinson has only 1 bln shares out, so there may be another chance to profit for all.

Karoon gas is a very, very small project. And considering distance, logistic difficulties, setting up in new location it only makes sense if BAB plans to have another business in Brazil.
They should either go full way, or not at all.

_____________________________________________________
Target production growth has the potential to deliver circa 33,000 bopd
Target production growth has the potential to deliver circa 33,000 bopd Target 2022 during CY 2022 during CY 2022 during CY 2022during CY 2022
2P

No panic buying ...
Can get cheaply later.

Taki, thanks for clarification. Those are small subsea pipelines for lukoil in their filanovski fields ... they sure are going to get contracts for new ones as there is almost no competition. But participation in the Cross Caspian Project unlikely as they will not likely start.
:-)
Good Luck to us. Improving OSV utilization rate.

I worked in Azerbaijan and I remember talk about this Trans Caspian Pipeline. And I was involved in BTC pipeline (Baku Tbilissi Jeyhun) from caspian to Turkey. I know how challenging it was. 2 km high mountains - caucassus. Unstable countries. Corruption. They even had deaths of welders who did not follow basic rules and got inside there (inside pipe), then collapsed. Not easy to supervise all, move camps. I think they construct 50 km, then move camp for another section. Cost was astronomical. Turkey had required own companies - Botas was the name of consortium.

So I would not hope. In 20 years things got even worse.

Not studying it but I thought the 'constrictor' was tied to some internal Lukoil Projects. I remember videos with your russian engineers that armada hired. They sure were pretty. Check youtube.
But forget the big pipeline.

And I might have sold off too early. The director's dumping made me concerned. May come back after a while if that stabilizes. I see more of Encik Mokhtar selling. Too bad.

I thought I sold my holdings ... but turns out the portion of the lot is unsold. Wow, must have been very weak market. So still with me, some of it. But I was selling at 6.91. How come we did not cross the shares?
(It was 25.1k shares)

I do contemplate coming back in a bigger way end of the year, when good quarterly results are more probable.

Mikekin and others ...

The risk of FPSO breaking in two and falling apart was already taken into account with thistle news and following Enquest evacuation. That was 37 sens a week ago.

The management pretty much did make all possible to bring price down. Writedowns, litigations, fire sale of assets, debt conversion to short term, getting into business in West Africa, etc.

They are good. But even biggest circus clowns at Armada Head Office run out of tricks and things to break. They cannot run the ship into the ground. It is tied to the wells. :-)
So nature takes it normal course. Sun rises.

Hence I bought some.
_________________________________________________________________
At this stage, I would say that’s very favorable because downside risk is very limited. I mean unless Armada’s FPSOs snap into 2 or struck by the wrath of Poseidon, I don’t see any significant, high probability risk factor in play.

Oh my ...

I bought another set of shares for 0.415

I guess something happened on the market as it was broker calling me yesterday, and now they delivered on the promise. In the past I could NEVER get anything close to daily lows. Operator was picking up cheap shares.

Maybe all the writing here on manipulating? Market maker running out of ability to control, or what?

No ... I am a realist. They do not read or know who is who.

I will check what IK is writing on all this.

I do not know why modec is so cheap now. I do not study their financials, but I see their reports and outlooks online. Better than most.

However, I have a few people in the office who worked for them. They say that it is a horrible company filled with indian contractors who work below standards. Now they flood their assets with brazilians. So african projects are full of portugese speaking people. I now have a brazilian in my office - also picked up for language, and that guy is also completely lost. My colleague just left for modec project and is unhappy there. The brazilians meet some nationalisations targets and bode good for future awards. Brazil is THE PLACE to be. And the operation from Singapore is focused on cost cutting above any objective. So maybe their new hulls branded Noah are more marketing than substance and quality, if done cheaply.

When I hear that I think that Bumi Armada cannot be that much worse.
:-)

Also, for those who do their research, this is a new type of contract. EPCI - C?. In the past they were EPC mostly. Now they go to EPCIC. This gives contractor more revenue. Participating in IC stages, Installation, Commissioning.
:-)

PS
I did NOT get any 0.415 MYR shares. I guess they were swallowed by market churners. Hmmm, market makers.
I stand at end of queue as an ordinary investor.

But I got some during the panic with 17% drop. At that time they shared willingly market.
:-)

This company, BAB, is one of the worst in our industry for sure. Performance is dismal. Even a family bus operator venture outsmarted them. But rising tide lifts all boats. Even broken junks.
And industry is doing great. After modec picks up barossa, there is more room for others. I think they are unable to get more projects now. Completely overbooked.
__________________________________________________________________
Press Releases (2019)
MODEC Awarded Contract to Supply FPSO for Barossa Field offshore Australia by ConocoPhillips
Tokyo, October 30, 2019
MODEC, Inc. ("MODEC") is pleased to announce that it has signed a contract with ConocoPhillips Australia Barossa Pty Ltd to supply a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel for the Barossa field, offshore Australia. The Barossa FPSO is intended to produce gas and condensate from subsea wells and after treatment, supply feed gas to the Darwin LNG Plant via a gas export pipeline.

MODEC was awarded a Front End Engineering Design (FEED) contract of the Barossa FPSO in June 2018 and has now been selected as the turnkey contractor based upon its successful performance and deliverables of the FEED contract.

The Barossa FPSO is MODEC's largest size of "Gas FPSO" to date, which will be able to export over 600 million standard cubic feet of gas per day as well as store up to 650,000 barrels of condensate for export. It has been designed to withstand a 100-year cyclone event at a water depth of 260 meters and located some 300 kilometers off north of Darwin, Australia.

MODEC will be responsible for the Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Installation (EPCI) of the Barossa FPSO, including topsides processing equipment as well as hull and marine systems. Scheduled for delivery during 2023, the FPSO will be permanently moored by an internal turret mooring system supplied by a MODEC group company, SOFEC, Inc.

The Barossa FPSO will be the first application of MODEC's "M350 Hull", a next generation new built hull for FPSOs, full double hull design which has been developed to accommodate larger topsides and larger storage capacity than conventional VLCC tankers, with a longer design service life of 25 years and beyond. The hull will be built by Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co., Ltd. (DSIC) in Dalian, China.

The FPSO features a boiler and steam turbine based power generation system instead of conventional gas turbines, which helps reduce the carbon dioxide footprint of the facility.

"We are extremely honored and proud to have been selected to provide the Gas FPSO for Barossa project," commented Yuji Kozai, President and CEO of MODEC. "This contract award of a Gas FPSO reinforces one of our important business strategies, which we aim to penetrate into gas-related market. Also this new contract represents a significant milestone for MODEC in applying our next generation new built FPSO hull design of which we have developed to meet the new market demands for larger FPSOs. We are equally pleased to be a part of the team that will provide natural gas, a major clean energy source, for the benefit of the people and environment."

The Barossa FPSO will be MODEC's 6th FPSO in Australia and this contract award confirms its advanced position as the leading FPSO service provider in the country.

The Barossa joint venture is currently formed by ConocoPhillips Australia Barossa Pty Ltd (field operator, 37.5%), SK E&S Australia Pty Ltd (37.5%) and Santos Offshore Pty Ltd (25.0%).

And for me it is interesting. Maybe even exciting.
A broker just contacted me to offer shares at 0.415. Normally they do not reach out. But I notice they collect 0.3%

I got myself in the queue. Well, might as well.

Will be good buying opportunities. 1 month to earnings is a long time.

I think this down-ride is big players selling. Not the news.
There is no longer range control.
For more info need to wait for IK.
I am a small player that just got a bit bigger as we hit 0.41
I think of no new buy orders for a bit. Wait and see.

______________________________________________________________________
29-Oct-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 12,000,000 shares on 22-Oct-2019.
29-Oct-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 5,400,000 shares on 22-Oct-2019.
29-Oct-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 3,000,000 shares on 23-Oct-2019.

Wow, those selling queues are NOT fake.

I just placed an order at 0.42 and it was filled right away (2 minutes tops) and in bigger volume this time.
Trust me.
You can get your shares at 0.42

I feel more comfortable with this stock now after big drops and recovery. No problem if we revisit 40 sens at all.

I am tired to read personal attacks. Waste of space. We all have our own opinions on others