Please note that the shale industry in the us is imploding. The rig count is down by 200 from about 850 rigs. About 80% of companies suffer heavy losses. Production still increases, but rig count is a leading indicator of future decrease.
As a result ... more hydrocarbons will be produced offshore. Brasil to become #1 world producer.

Armada will not benefit from it short term, as no money for new projects, but operating margins should improve.

__________________________
1) Oil price is likely to trend up with OPEC + Russia production cut extension through 2020. They meet in first week of Dec.

I am very negative about the management. They took this stock from 3 MYR to 15 cents. But it is an amazing buying opportunity. Other comptitors are also going to face difficulties. Vietnam lease was canceled due to border dispute with China, for example, only 2 months ago. Stock dropped 2 cents.

Remember I sold yinson to be on this stock. So I compare.

Ah, I found them ...

Famous risks by Mikekim.
After rebound ... can be updated.

_____________________________
1) Kraken problems to resurface - maybe. 50-50. Who knows.

2) Kraken contract termination & thus the debt cannot be restructured to LT, therefore triggering a liquidity crunch - very low probability, client Enquest needs Kraken very badly to survive.

3) OMS contract termination for some OSV - leading to lower utilization rate. Low probability. The trend is that oil majors are increasing their capex and demand for OSV will improve (just look at Petronas looking to spend RM32bn in 2H2019). Armada has deployed 4 additional OSVs in Malaysian waters in 2Q alone.

4) Oil price tank below US$50. Low chance. OPEC+ won't allow this to happen They want oil price to be around US$60 per barrel, plus/minus 5.

5) Trade war doesn't resolve and escalate further. Maybe. Who knows. But judging from Trump's 2020 election, he needs a deal with China to boost his chances. Trump is all about holding onto power, he doesn't actually give a shit about trade war. It's all rhetorics. On this basis, I think there's a better chance than not for a trade war resolution.

Sorry, I think it was maybe Mikekim with the 'contrarian' list.

Tak1,
You also make a list of risks. I found it interesting too.
Please consider updating it when the situation stabilizes here, so that you do not create a 5th way down below 20 MA, or whatever it is.
:-)

Tak1, I investigated his options a few weeks ago.
He gets two million US dollars worth of shares. Company paid.
There will be about 50 million shares for him. I think calculated against very low price. This was voted during annual meeting.

One can buy a very nice present for this money.

I thought this compensation was excessive.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Posted by TAK1 > Nov 26, 2019 3:45 PM | Report Abuse

I hope the CEO wanted to buy something nice for chistmas but too bad he can't as the price is fu*cked because of his decision to release late.

I translated this chinese thing ... :-)
Now I understand...

It is a BUY

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/nanyang_stock_expert/239936.jsp
________________________________________
Expert advice

The third quarter net profit surpassed our and the market's predictions, and the ranges exceeded 13% and 7%, respectively.

We raise our net profit per share forecast for FY2019 by 8%, as Indian Floating Production Tankers (FSPO) Sterling I and II received a single tax exemption in the third quarter, driving the profit of joint ventures.

At the same time, we also revised up our net profit per share forecast for the fiscal years 2020-2021 by 10-11%, as the offshore maritime services (OMS) business improved, and vessel utilization increased from 55% to 60%; the daily rent rate (DCR) Increased from US $ 1 to US $ 1.20 per brake horsepower (bhp); and a more favorable US dollar exchange rate.

Nevertheless, our revised profit forecast has not fully reflected the cost savings of the Perdana tanker, which means that the profit forecast has the potential to be revised up.

Based on the category-wise aggregate valuation (SOTP) of the past 12 months, we revised up our target price from 45 sen to 62 sen, which is equal to 10 times the PE.

As for the company's downside risks, it includes lower than expected use of offshore support vessels (OSVs), delayed dispatch of subsea vessels, and suspension of existing FSPO contracts.

Profit taking finished.
6 or so investor banks upgraded target price.

Clients with money look for investments, and this is a large percentage of KLSE intex. Funds will be buying more to reflect new share of index by Armada. This share is now 3x more from the bottom.
So funds have to buy in.

People took profit. Good. Congrats Paktua.

I bought more.

Reason returns with new buyers in.

So source of loss can be converted into profit in the near future.

I so regret all money already invested.
:-)

Whether it is 48 or 58 ... you should be selling at about 80 in 3 months ... Early next year.

For those cheering sale of the OSV vessels ... It is possible to hit utilisation rate of 90% nowadays. Read Lloyd's report.

Bumi Armada third quarter utilisation rate rise to 58% amid fleet optimisation
Higher spec vessels seeing greater uptake but there remains a base of charterers continuing to take cheaper, low spec OSVs. Floating production units however provided a steady revenue base as the group stayed in the black in the third quarter
25 Nov 2019

Meanwhile compatriot offshore player Dayang saw vessel utilisation at its OSV unit Perdana Petroleum hit 91% from 79% in the second quarter, in line with the increased work scope and synergies with its parent

https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1130108/Bumi-Armada-third-quarter-utilisation-rate-rise-to-58-amid-fleet-optimisation

All the action today made me want to buy more shares.
I know that those analysts cannot form own thoughts and copy statements and old cliches.

Now, I look at my investments and think of what can be utilized to buy more of those shares.

A few determined investors can make the difference.

PS

This is NOT an endorsement of the company management but faith in malaysian workers at BAB.

I bought at 53 to 54 this week as I believed strong results.
No regrets as results came is as expected. We make bets on results, market price follows eventually.

In the end ... those few cents lost are no big deal. There was a chance of 60+ today with those results. But congrats to those buying at discount. Market goddess is a capricious one.

With Kraken improvement we will make it to 1 MYR in time. I am unloading then. This management team can ruin everything when play is easy, but should continue fighting for survival this year.

Save on commissions by holding. Churning gets you nowhere.
:-)

@armadatuah2017
Thanks for thinking and responding about this drop yesterday.
I also remember that it took 12 hours for market to react. BBC had thistle report in the afternoon UK time, market responded afternoon next day KL time.
Maybe it was just profit collection. People new that earnings expectations were high... All priced in.

Here is Kraken specs from BAB web.
It says 80k, but I remember that it was supposed to deliver only 50k.
Maybe wells and subsea limitation. And it was water injection, not gas.

For a good stock closing tomorrow.

Armada Kraken
Technical Specification
First Oil June 2017
Oil Production capacity 80,000 bopd
Storage capacity
600,000 bbls
Gas Handling
20 MMscfd
Water Production 275,000 bwpd
Water Injection 275,000 bpd

Lets hope that it is 38.5k since may, and 34.5k was for the whole year as it says in announcement. I keep my fingers crossed for 38.5k. New Guys there on Kraken (after 5 team leads fired) ... you can do it. You are there to produce. Stock price will then take care of itself.

Extra 5k dayily is 5k x 60 = 300 000 USD every day. Not bad. That may be close to half the charter rate. Like making any profit or losing. I think charter rate is 500k for new vessel like this one.
I am sure company can use extra 300k daily. They can hire a senior finance guy to refinance debts with that. 10 finance guys.

Maybe this drop was because a fund manager saw this small number of 34 and dumped 20 millions. It all happened within minutes.


______________________________________________________
Kraken has averaged gross production of 34,286 barrels of oil per day in that period, and, has achieved improved efficiency, EnQuest noted.

@Janson King

38.5k would already be promising. Eventually they will stop those maintenance shutdowns. As I remember it, bottlenecking was injection systems not working that good. Usually that is gas compressor issue. Need a better specialist.

It is interesting how they invent good sounding words. I remember in media release they said 'visible' improvement. Sounds better than saying 38.5 now, need 50+

To the next up wave.

Remember guys, do not sell at the peak.
Leave some profit for the other guy.

Otherwise, he will NEVER buy from you again.
:-)

Paktua acted generously. Could have kept to 0.555 ... but let someone else get the profit too. That is all about sharing.

Kraken news ... more important that daily dip. The dip was needed.

I keep thinking about Kraken. 34k boed is not very good. But they say 90% online .... I believe 90% is just the last few months, so they selectively picked up a period just after shut down, not full 10 months of the year. 34k production probably includes spring shutdown. Anyway, small improvement, or at least not worse.

Enquest needs some positive news after leak. They cannot go after Armada. They chose Armada that underperform. They also look bad if they have Armada issue, leak, debt. So we benefit from a bit of a cover up. Production low but above expectation and they will be OK ... Maybe.

:-)
_______________________________________________________

Kraken has averaged gross production of 34,286 barrels of oil per day in that period, and, has achieved improved efficiency, EnQuest noted....
Production efficiency at Kraken has been over 90% in the last few months.”

Very good news about Enquest K3.
However, I remember that the target was 50k bopd.
30k still low.

But they see happy. Maybe targets revised. Maybe someone can clue us in. Good or not so ???
_____________________________________________
“Production at the end of October was 68,501 Boepd, with Kraken in particular performing strongly. Production efficiency at Kraken has been over 90% in the last few months.”
Kraken has averaged gross production of 34,286 barrels of oil per day in that period, and, has achieved improved efficiency, EnQuest noted.

All the talk about 50's and I see 49
Welcome back forties.

Now, I made big, BIG mistake it seems.
There must be a good reason.

But let's wait and see longer term.

Someone here said .... report on Nov 19 - Good
Report on Nov 22 - Bad

Time is not working for holders.
Even paktua removed his troops.

I went even deeper in to stay long term.


Even 20 million profit is OK, but no red numbers please.

I checked lists of investors in annual reports. Out of 30 biggest shareholders, there are only 3 individuals, position 24 and further down. I doubt they have even 1%. (0.7% to be exact)
Nobody has more than 20 million shares, unless Wei is a family name.

So shorties are miniscule compared to institutions. They ride the wave, but sure not create it.

So, unless we have those guys here, no need to worry about shorties ... I think 'Wei' is a family name ... not sure which is family name.

Open info - not releasing any secrets here. Annual report 2018:

24 Tan Yu Wei 18,450,000
29 Seng Siaw Wei 13,000,000 0.22
30 Tan Yu Yeh 13,000,000 0.22

I think I bought too much of this stock. But it was the only one I had in my tiny portfolio, which was at loss (I paid about 1 MYR). So I was so keen to turn loser into a winner.

Even if it goes down due to insiders already pricing in results - it was the best decision I could made. Can still win long term.

Many thanks to all investors for good input. I do not mind opinion of shorties at all too. So including them. After all, one can only decide upon looking at risks, not just potential.

One more thing about shorties ...

Seems to me like insiders know the results already. If results are as good as they expect ... the stock may actually pull down a bit. They already loaded to the till and will be selling.
:-)
Where else is the 20% increase from?

In any case, I added some longer term.

Banditos:
I found on Jobstreet.
Armada has opening for Senior Manager, Corporate Treasury.
Responsibility #1:
Procure financing...
rest is blah blah blah

If they can get right guy, it could be worth millions in saved interest costs ...

Posted by Banditos > Nov 19, 2019 6:10 PM | Report Abuse

armada 15c in the making. kikiki
_________________________________________________________
This is very positive. If Yinson can refinance and have oversubscription to their bonds, so can armada. They will not get deal as good, but 45% cash was left on the table. That means that the major risk may be taken care of if BAB will go for similar exercise.
I remember they were hiring financial guy last month. Search the web.

I read with great interest. Thank you.

Thanks again for recomendation Superpanda.
Good Luck over next few weeks.

Good earnings by competition ... double digits ... also others similar... as I read a couple of reports.

https://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2019/11/16/liza-i-ii-fpsos-are-cash-cows-for-exxons-builders-as-brazil-places-their-fpso-order-on-hold/

Dutch floater specialists, SBM Offshore—the company that has secured a contract with ExxonMobil Guyana, for the construction of several Floating, Production, Storage and Offloading Vessels (FPSO)—has reported double digit profit margins, earning more than $1.4B already for this year.
accessed loan facility for another US$1.1B—the good news stemming primarily from its operations related to the Guyana Stabroek Block, with the construction of two FPSOs – the Liza Unity and Liza Destiny (for the Liza I&II oil fields.)
Plans and contracts are already underway for a third FPSO, the Liza Prosperity.

Superpanda .. . I am with an investment bank but already decided to move to online brokerage. Will try to transfer all the shares and sell through them.
I pay for service, but get mostly hassle.

Last week I asked to buy my shares for below 0.50 and after waiting all week only very small amount filled. I was unhappy and I called the dealers. I think they did not watch or did not put bids properly. They told me they were 25 million queues on buy and 6 million sell. Next hour all reverse, but still multi million clients blocking it for others. I simply could not get it.

So this week I told them to buy certain amount up to 0.60. And they buy at 0.525. Seems like nothing gets to me on the dips (daily lows). I get shares by paying top price.
Dips are all controlled by big buyers.

So you have to pay premium price if you are ikan bilis like me. It is more of reality than manipulation.

Buyer at 52, seller at 525 and bids are more than 5 million ... so nobody can buy or move stock now. Is is what IK calls operator manipulations?

So, seems like nobody can buy any shares at all out of this range.

I am positive on earnings, but I think they are priced in already. Somebody knows and acts on it.

I see 9 out of 10 last blocks in green ... but the volume dried up and price is down for the day. Not as bullish as last week.

I love this movement and all, but THERE WAS NO RELEASE OF ANY NEWS.

I checked internet, all over. Nothing new.

Makes me a bit uncomfortable.

Sure it was not shorties covering. Bids in million of share blocks.

Everybody so happy here.

Time to take some profit off the table.

:-)

Good luck to all.

Someone hit hard at 2 mln force and brought it down 1%

I still wait for the confirmation of my 5k share purchase at this price. Maybe got bypassed again by operator.

So today johnwick is a winner. He announced it a day ahead about selling at 0.5 and delivered. Good.

Shorties have to make a living too.

I have no reply from brokers. Will queue to buy more tomorrow.
As a small fish I got it from him at 0.49. Thank you.

John has a profit, I will keep the shares.

Make your own projections. . . here is the relevant part ...

Group won an FPSO conversion job from Shapoorji Pallonji and Bumi Armada, as well as a repeat FPU order from Shell. The new Shell FPU project is for the Whale field in the Gulf of Mexico. It comes after the Shell Vito FPU secured last year and now under construction at Tuas Boulevard Yard. As we take on the Whale FPU project, we will be harnessing considerable synergies from the ongoing Vito project.
Year-to-date new contracts amount to $845 million, compared to $730 million in the same period last year.
Siccar Point Cambo Field FPSO – customer has selected Sevan cylindrical hull solution and engaged us for an exclusive FEED study. This puts Sembcorp Marine in the prime position to clinch the project once Siccar Point and their partners move ahead with the Final Investment Decision.
With $845 million new orders thus far in 2019, our net order book now stands at $2.42 billion, excluding the Sete Brasil drill ships.

Sebcorp Marine posted loss despite Bumi Armada and shell orders. Actually business was down till Sep 2019.
_____________________________________________
Sembcorp Marine posts 9M 2019 net loss of $59 million ...
https://www.sembmarine.com › stock-exchange-announcements
7 hours ago - ... an FPSO for Shapoorji Pallonji Oil and Gas and Bumi Armada;; Conversion / Upgrade of 3 Floating Storage and Regasification Unit (FSRU) / Floating Storage ...

By the way, I got my salary on Monday. Now in queue to load up another 5k of BAB. So I put my money where my mouth is.
PS
It was impossible for me to buy yesterday. Somehow big lots come by and mine goes unfilled. I think those are orders 'sell all or none' where right hand sells to left.
I am learning from people here.
:-)
Operator forcing range trades to pick up shares of shorties, IK?

Normally I do not reply to people here to avoid personal.
But I think 4.55 tp is completely unrealistic.
There are 5 times as many shares in BAB than Yinson. So it should be 5 times cheaper. Yinson maxed out at 7. i know this stock, had it for 5 years. Even Brazil 1 bln contract causes it to drop now.
So BAB realistic is 1 myr or so, when confluence of good news happens.
_________________________________________________________________

Sure Tuah..

I will not change my profile...

Will keep it beyong 0.60...

My long term TP is still 4.55

Remember if Yin can do, so can Arma..

Cheers!

If any investors are like me, we enjoyed a sizable profit and now the temptation to convert it into a real gain is strong. Would go back in at lower valuations. But that will likely take time.
I was losing money on this stock for 3 years or so. It was painful. Lesson learnt. Now on sidelines...

Let the insiders buy. Or at least stop dumping.

If any investors are like me, we enjoyed a sizable profit and now the temptation to convert it into a real gain is strong. Would go back in at lower valuations. But that will likely take time.

I also do not believe in Trans Caspian Pipeline. I worked in the region. I spent 5 years on Sangachal terminal which is supposed to get this pipeline. The owners do not like competition, and bp (British Petroleum) is not working with companies as small as BA. They take Saipem, Bechtel, Technip, etc. Azeri people do not want competition for their hydrocarbons. Their pipeline capacity is already filled up to max (turkey pipelines). I think they may start injecting drag reducing agents to push more oil through 2k of pipeline. And that was years ago.

Today SMB offshore got contract for 3rd FPSO for exxon guyana.
In Brasil auctions some MOL get no bids. (Mining Oil Lease)
That today.

Seems like there is too much business and not enough capacity.
If only BAB could improve their credit - more contracts could come.

20 bln order book at low prices may not be such a good thing.

Ahhh, Investor Strategy
I admit, I bought some at 0.49 ... this was a big mistake.
Now it is approaching this price and I have the urge to add.
Maybe look for another MYR 10k to get another 5k of BAB and keep it?

Is this how most investors are thinking?

Not all so stupid, I started to fill up at 0.22.

Seems to me that after 0.50 myr will move up and establish new base.
Had this with carimin at 1 myr. Once crossed, never got back.
That was two months ago.

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 7): Shares in Velesto Energy Bhd (Velesto) and Bumi Armada Bhd rose 2.6% and 1.11% in active trade to 39.5 sen and 45.5 sen respectively at mid-morning today.

Both stocks were among the top active across Bursa Malaysia today.

UOB Malaysia analyst Kong Ho Meng pointed out that the leading indicator — the jack-up rig count — has seen an increase from earlier in the year, pointing to improvement in upstream activity.

On the other hand, the share prices of these companies were driven by positive leading indicators, as well as national oil firm Petronas’s guidance of higher capital expenditure (capex) in the latter half of the year.

Kong said the jack-up rig count across Malaysia and the Joint Development Area have increased from nine in February to 16 in September this year.

“However, whether the climb in O&G stocks can be sustained depends on the upcoming Petronas activity outlook for 2020-2022, likely to be released in December", he said.

“Otherwise, stock earnings might decline and investors should take profit,” he said.

In a recent note dated Nov 4, Affin Hwang Capital analyst Tan Jianyuan had advocated for investors to take profits amid the sector run-up, as the fourth and first quarters of the year are seasonally weak periods amid the monsoon.

He said that corporate earnings will be the focus this month and that maintenance and rig players could post stronger third-quarter results, benefiting from higher job flows.

Tan said the research house prefers companies with more exposure to brownfield work with good earnings visibility, including Dialog Group Bhd, Serba Dinamik Holdings Bhd, Velesto, Bumi Armada and Kelington Group Bhd.

“However, in view of the recent sector run-up and some stocks under our coverage nearing its fair values, we recommend to take profit on upcoming strong third quarter results announcements as the fourth and first quarters are seasonally weak due to monsoon,” he said.

I feel more comfortable buying this stock at 40+ rather than 20+
Two months ago the risk of some manipulators destroying this company was higher. Now it will be more difficult to run it to the ground. At least 2 times as much to short substantially. So like IK and some other mature investors, I will happily pay 50+ in the future. Hopefully not too soon.
:-)
In my opinion it is coming and even most destructive management types at BAB cannot stop it.

Happy at 45.

I bought another 5000 shares at 0.45 MYR. Running out of money.
:-)
But my shares are not going to be sold back this year. So whoever took profit, will not buy it cheaper from me in the next days.

Unlike others here, I do not care about settlement from Armada Claire much. I bank on them fixing injection systems and pumping more oil on Kraaken FPSO. That is the way to win.

No news. No activity. Momentum broken. And the stock price is higher again. Despite insider sales and being so much up in the past year. Someone knows something that I do not.

No news. No activity. Momentum broken. And the stock price is high already. So volume declines and we have this ...