Today SMB offshore got contract for 3rd FPSO for exxon guyana.
In Brasil auctions some MOL get no bids. (Mining Oil Lease)
That today.

Seems like there is too much business and not enough capacity.
If only BAB could improve their credit - more contracts could come.

20 bln order book at low prices may not be such a good thing.

Ahhh, Investor Strategy
I admit, I bought some at 0.49 ... this was a big mistake.
Now it is approaching this price and I have the urge to add.
Maybe look for another MYR 10k to get another 5k of BAB and keep it?

Is this how most investors are thinking?

Not all so stupid, I started to fill up at 0.22.

Seems to me that after 0.50 myr will move up and establish new base.
Had this with carimin at 1 myr. Once crossed, never got back.
That was two months ago.

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 7): Shares in Velesto Energy Bhd (Velesto) and Bumi Armada Bhd rose 2.6% and 1.11% in active trade to 39.5 sen and 45.5 sen respectively at mid-morning today.

Both stocks were among the top active across Bursa Malaysia today.

UOB Malaysia analyst Kong Ho Meng pointed out that the leading indicator — the jack-up rig count — has seen an increase from earlier in the year, pointing to improvement in upstream activity.

On the other hand, the share prices of these companies were driven by positive leading indicators, as well as national oil firm Petronas’s guidance of higher capital expenditure (capex) in the latter half of the year.

Kong said the jack-up rig count across Malaysia and the Joint Development Area have increased from nine in February to 16 in September this year.

“However, whether the climb in O&G stocks can be sustained depends on the upcoming Petronas activity outlook for 2020-2022, likely to be released in December", he said.

“Otherwise, stock earnings might decline and investors should take profit,” he said.

In a recent note dated Nov 4, Affin Hwang Capital analyst Tan Jianyuan had advocated for investors to take profits amid the sector run-up, as the fourth and first quarters of the year are seasonally weak periods amid the monsoon.

He said that corporate earnings will be the focus this month and that maintenance and rig players could post stronger third-quarter results, benefiting from higher job flows.

Tan said the research house prefers companies with more exposure to brownfield work with good earnings visibility, including Dialog Group Bhd, Serba Dinamik Holdings Bhd, Velesto, Bumi Armada and Kelington Group Bhd.

“However, in view of the recent sector run-up and some stocks under our coverage nearing its fair values, we recommend to take profit on upcoming strong third quarter results announcements as the fourth and first quarters are seasonally weak due to monsoon,” he said.

I feel more comfortable buying this stock at 40+ rather than 20+
Two months ago the risk of some manipulators destroying this company was higher. Now it will be more difficult to run it to the ground. At least 2 times as much to short substantially. So like IK and some other mature investors, I will happily pay 50+ in the future. Hopefully not too soon.
:-)
In my opinion it is coming and even most destructive management types at BAB cannot stop it.

Happy at 45.

I bought another 5000 shares at 0.45 MYR. Running out of money.
:-)
But my shares are not going to be sold back this year. So whoever took profit, will not buy it cheaper from me in the next days.

Unlike others here, I do not care about settlement from Armada Claire much. I bank on them fixing injection systems and pumping more oil on Kraaken FPSO. That is the way to win.

No news. No activity. Momentum broken. And the stock price is higher again. Despite insider sales and being so much up in the past year. Someone knows something that I do not.

No news. No activity. Momentum broken. And the stock price is high already. So volume declines and we have this ...

I have to admit that I like the fact that some people announce their decision ahead of transaction.
Looks like IK has been right and the dip is here. He will get his profit.

I am also queening at 0.445 and despite seeing trades in this range I got nil (0) shares so far.
Fingers crossed. 1 hour left.

A few astute investors here comment about the fund's selling ... I notice they bought back what they sold. Seems that even fund want to make money on daily gyration. Explains why I cannot get to lowest or highest daily price even after queueing for a day or 2 days. And they keep the range.

___________________________________________________________
04-Nov-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) acquired 600,000 shares on 30-Oct-2019.
30-Oct-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 350,000 shares on 24-Oct-2019.
30-Oct-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 330,000 shares on 24-Oct-2019.

Many thanks about the news regarding Karoon and Claire, AT2017. The good thing is that this is not publicised officially, so does not affect settlement. Normally, you only get compensation for loss. Not if you mitigate.

Like if you nearly get hit by a car, you cannot sue for medical cost, because you were not hurt. So having vessels under new contract has impact on size of damages awarded. So far Claire is idle and there is sizable damage. No contract for years ... sounds good in courts.


____________________________________
Posted by armadatuah2017 > Nov 4, 2019 6:18 PM | Report Abuse

@robert waters Karoon gas field is for Armada Claire deployment JV with Subsea 7 and one more company.

Well, I am out of Carimin and moving to Armada.
Good Luck to all fellows here.
It has been great 5 years.
Yes, 5 years !!!
4 years and 10 month this stock was below what I paid for, so I sure feel good to be out.
Good luck to those who bought cheaply and can stay a few more months.

All the data looked good, now ... is it already included in price???
I think it is.

Well, I am out of Yinson and moving to Armada.
Good Luck to all fellows here.
It has been great 5 years.
Yes, 5 years !!!
Yinson has only 1 bln shares out, so there may be another chance to profit for all.

Karoon gas is a very, very small project. And considering distance, logistic difficulties, setting up in new location it only makes sense if BAB plans to have another business in Brazil.
They should either go full way, or not at all.

_____________________________________________________
Target production growth has the potential to deliver circa 33,000 bopd
Target production growth has the potential to deliver circa 33,000 bopd Target 2022 during CY 2022 during CY 2022 during CY 2022during CY 2022
2P

No panic buying ...
Can get cheaply later.

Taki, thanks for clarification. Those are small subsea pipelines for lukoil in their filanovski fields ... they sure are going to get contracts for new ones as there is almost no competition. But participation in the Cross Caspian Project unlikely as they will not likely start.
:-)
Good Luck to us. Improving OSV utilization rate.

I worked in Azerbaijan and I remember talk about this Trans Caspian Pipeline. And I was involved in BTC pipeline (Baku Tbilissi Jeyhun) from caspian to Turkey. I know how challenging it was. 2 km high mountains - caucassus. Unstable countries. Corruption. They even had deaths of welders who did not follow basic rules and got inside there (inside pipe), then collapsed. Not easy to supervise all, move camps. I think they construct 50 km, then move camp for another section. Cost was astronomical. Turkey had required own companies - Botas was the name of consortium.

So I would not hope. In 20 years things got even worse.

Not studying it but I thought the 'constrictor' was tied to some internal Lukoil Projects. I remember videos with your russian engineers that armada hired. They sure were pretty. Check youtube.
But forget the big pipeline.

And I might have sold off too early. The director's dumping made me concerned. May come back after a while if that stabilizes. I see more of Encik Mokhtar selling. Too bad.

I thought I sold my holdings ... but turns out the portion of the lot is unsold. Wow, must have been very weak market. So still with me, some of it. But I was selling at 6.91. How come we did not cross the shares?
(It was 25.1k shares)

I do contemplate coming back in a bigger way end of the year, when good quarterly results are more probable.

Mikekin and others ...

The risk of FPSO breaking in two and falling apart was already taken into account with thistle news and following Enquest evacuation. That was 37 sens a week ago.

The management pretty much did make all possible to bring price down. Writedowns, litigations, fire sale of assets, debt conversion to short term, getting into business in West Africa, etc.

They are good. But even biggest circus clowns at Armada Head Office run out of tricks and things to break. They cannot run the ship into the ground. It is tied to the wells. :-)
So nature takes it normal course. Sun rises.

Hence I bought some.
_________________________________________________________________
At this stage, I would say that’s very favorable because downside risk is very limited. I mean unless Armada’s FPSOs snap into 2 or struck by the wrath of Poseidon, I don’t see any significant, high probability risk factor in play.

Oh my ...

I bought another set of shares for 0.415

I guess something happened on the market as it was broker calling me yesterday, and now they delivered on the promise. In the past I could NEVER get anything close to daily lows. Operator was picking up cheap shares.

Maybe all the writing here on manipulating? Market maker running out of ability to control, or what?

No ... I am a realist. They do not read or know who is who.

I will check what IK is writing on all this.

I do not know why modec is so cheap now. I do not study their financials, but I see their reports and outlooks online. Better than most.

However, I have a few people in the office who worked for them. They say that it is a horrible company filled with indian contractors who work below standards. Now they flood their assets with brazilians. So african projects are full of portugese speaking people. I now have a brazilian in my office - also picked up for language, and that guy is also completely lost. My colleague just left for modec project and is unhappy there. The brazilians meet some nationalisations targets and bode good for future awards. Brazil is THE PLACE to be. And the operation from Singapore is focused on cost cutting above any objective. So maybe their new hulls branded Noah are more marketing than substance and quality, if done cheaply.

When I hear that I think that Bumi Armada cannot be that much worse.
:-)

Also, for those who do their research, this is a new type of contract. EPCI - C?. In the past they were EPC mostly. Now they go to EPCIC. This gives contractor more revenue. Participating in IC stages, Installation, Commissioning.
:-)

PS
I did NOT get any 0.415 MYR shares. I guess they were swallowed by market churners. Hmmm, market makers.
I stand at end of queue as an ordinary investor.

But I got some during the panic with 17% drop. At that time they shared willingly market.
:-)

This company, BAB, is one of the worst in our industry for sure. Performance is dismal. Even a family bus operator venture outsmarted them. But rising tide lifts all boats. Even broken junks.
And industry is doing great. After modec picks up barossa, there is more room for others. I think they are unable to get more projects now. Completely overbooked.
__________________________________________________________________
Press Releases (2019)
MODEC Awarded Contract to Supply FPSO for Barossa Field offshore Australia by ConocoPhillips
Tokyo, October 30, 2019
MODEC, Inc. ("MODEC") is pleased to announce that it has signed a contract with ConocoPhillips Australia Barossa Pty Ltd to supply a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel for the Barossa field, offshore Australia. The Barossa FPSO is intended to produce gas and condensate from subsea wells and after treatment, supply feed gas to the Darwin LNG Plant via a gas export pipeline.

MODEC was awarded a Front End Engineering Design (FEED) contract of the Barossa FPSO in June 2018 and has now been selected as the turnkey contractor based upon its successful performance and deliverables of the FEED contract.

The Barossa FPSO is MODEC's largest size of "Gas FPSO" to date, which will be able to export over 600 million standard cubic feet of gas per day as well as store up to 650,000 barrels of condensate for export. It has been designed to withstand a 100-year cyclone event at a water depth of 260 meters and located some 300 kilometers off north of Darwin, Australia.

MODEC will be responsible for the Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Installation (EPCI) of the Barossa FPSO, including topsides processing equipment as well as hull and marine systems. Scheduled for delivery during 2023, the FPSO will be permanently moored by an internal turret mooring system supplied by a MODEC group company, SOFEC, Inc.

The Barossa FPSO will be the first application of MODEC's "M350 Hull", a next generation new built hull for FPSOs, full double hull design which has been developed to accommodate larger topsides and larger storage capacity than conventional VLCC tankers, with a longer design service life of 25 years and beyond. The hull will be built by Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co., Ltd. (DSIC) in Dalian, China.

The FPSO features a boiler and steam turbine based power generation system instead of conventional gas turbines, which helps reduce the carbon dioxide footprint of the facility.

"We are extremely honored and proud to have been selected to provide the Gas FPSO for Barossa project," commented Yuji Kozai, President and CEO of MODEC. "This contract award of a Gas FPSO reinforces one of our important business strategies, which we aim to penetrate into gas-related market. Also this new contract represents a significant milestone for MODEC in applying our next generation new built FPSO hull design of which we have developed to meet the new market demands for larger FPSOs. We are equally pleased to be a part of the team that will provide natural gas, a major clean energy source, for the benefit of the people and environment."

The Barossa FPSO will be MODEC's 6th FPSO in Australia and this contract award confirms its advanced position as the leading FPSO service provider in the country.

The Barossa joint venture is currently formed by ConocoPhillips Australia Barossa Pty Ltd (field operator, 37.5%), SK E&S Australia Pty Ltd (37.5%) and Santos Offshore Pty Ltd (25.0%).

And for me it is interesting. Maybe even exciting.
A broker just contacted me to offer shares at 0.415. Normally they do not reach out. But I notice they collect 0.3%

I got myself in the queue. Well, might as well.

Will be good buying opportunities. 1 month to earnings is a long time.

I think this down-ride is big players selling. Not the news.
There is no longer range control.
For more info need to wait for IK.
I am a small player that just got a bit bigger as we hit 0.41
I think of no new buy orders for a bit. Wait and see.

______________________________________________________________________
29-Oct-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 12,000,000 shares on 22-Oct-2019.
29-Oct-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 5,400,000 shares on 22-Oct-2019.
29-Oct-2019 Insider EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND BOARD (a substantial shareholder) disposed 3,000,000 shares on 23-Oct-2019.

Wow, those selling queues are NOT fake.

I just placed an order at 0.42 and it was filled right away (2 minutes tops) and in bigger volume this time.
Trust me.
You can get your shares at 0.42

I feel more comfortable with this stock now after big drops and recovery. No problem if we revisit 40 sens at all.

I am tired to read personal attacks. Waste of space. We all have our own opinions on others

Sure dropping like a rock recently.
Nobody there to cheer it up a bit?
I almost left, but still attached to counter emotionally after 5 years. . .

Turns out I bought a few 10+ thousands after all ... took three day to get a fill at 0.43. Maybe very long queues?
Let us hope for a few more dips on the way to Q3.

As my guru, IK says, this counter is under strict control. Now allowed to move out of the range. But still can purchase on edges of that range. Inside it is the operator profit margin for market making.

Good luck all.

I guess Claire news is a scam?

We closed down slightly. Very good. Another buy opportunity.
Now I wonder if I got my fill?
Yinson to Armada conversion nearly complete.

What a trick with the Armada Clair. Nobody bought it.

Welcome to this counter ican. I decided to take my profit of the table. Doubled my money. So I hope I leave some for you on the table - for when the second contract is achieved.
That will boost profits.

First brazilian contract for income.
Snd contract for efficiency and profit.

I am NOT buying the company to own but shares to sell later on. And as bad as this company has been to me and other investors over the years, it has potential to go up. Having said that, basic reasoning is:

I remember yinson having 5 FPSO, all chartered a few months ago.
I remember armada having 2 moored - unused, 5 chartered.
Yinson 5 wins 0 dogs
Armada 5 wins, 2 loses

Now yinson has 1 new for Brazil, 1 unused FPSO in vietnam, 1 new so 6:1 (losing on 1)

Armada sold one (perdana) so it is 6:1 (losing on 1)

The score is even ... yet price difference tremendous. Eventually, luck had to strike Armada and eventually Yinson got the misfortune too.

Time to adjust to this new situation.

I will collect some more shares of BAB tomorrow. I am interested if I will be able to get a fill at last price traded. As I said, last time I bid 42, 42.5, 43 and got zero shares over 2 days. I have no idea how the operator is doing it. Of course, I am not entering market price. I bid at the last traded price for 2 days to no avail. I sold my Yinson at the same time and any time I entered such price it was transacted within an hour or so. So Armada and Yinson trading are much diferent. I get yinson trades fill, but no Armada.

I was not thinking much about comments on who is buying, lot size, etc, but now I see that I am not able to get a transaction without better insight.

Sure our entry and sell price are immmensely important for short termers. Not as much for me, but still do not want to give my money to traders (shorties) who live on the spread. Or is it giving money to the OPERATOR...?

Despite all the problems, I see Armada as better value and prospect than Yinson.

This counter is closely manipulated by the OPERATOR. Now I realize that IK is right. I put my bid in the queue, but did not get a single share. At 43, 42 and 42.5 sens. Even though blocks changed hands when I was in queue.
I now believe that they will keep it in range they want.
So people can purchase more shares a bit more than the operator blocks next week.
Volume of investors so small that almost no impact on the insider manipulators.

Good weekend everyone.

Big push back from OPERATOR coming but I am NOT able to collect any.
They put big queues and taking it down themselves.
What a system they have.

Need more action to break out from their control.

Thanks for IDSS news IK. I see there is not so much volume. They keep longer short is my guess.

BRACE YOURSELF.
Selling wave coming.
Last hour. Long weekend.
Or is it just a dip with buying opportunity?
I hope that 40c will not be broken like 3 days ago in last hour.

I told you guys. OPERATOR will not allow for shares to go up now. They are collecting. And IDSS no need to close the week balance as there was sufficient volume down. Means a very week closing of the week.
Facts are now in front of you.

Down 2% and more to come soon.

I just sold my 2,200 shares. Will confirm later. Looks like I caused the market for carimin to crash 5%. And it is only 2k. Sorry.
But if insiders sell, so will I.
Upset they have no faith in company that feeds them.

Tomorrow expect those who bought short term to sell. They will not keep it over long weekend. Too much risk for them.
Also, buyers will wait till next week. Shorties no need to buy because 3% limit was invoked.
And operator keeps it low to pick up cheap shares.
So we need to wait a little or buy on dips.

Simple.

:)))))))))

I have made a reasonable profit and going out. Only 2,200 shares left, so will not break the market selling them.
Moving to Bumi Armada which I have had with carimin for 5 years now.
I bought them both at same price of 1 myr. Armada now below 0.5.

Will try to make profit on that one too. It is just taking longer.

I guess management of carimin is doing better job.

My order to sell at 1.28 is in.

Bye all

:-)

Not much price appreciation after such good news. Let's wait for the second one. Risk discount will be removed for the BEST FPSO company (most profitable).

I have personally seen cracks in the FPSO's that nobody was doing about them. At that time they said it was paint splitting (possibly ???) and the asset still in operation a few years after. They could have evaluated more and asked to stay at minimum staff. Could have waited for more info. Then stocks would still go up. Trigger effect really not neaningful.

I bet the manager did not know what to do ... but wanted to show how decisive he was. I know it is platform, but same procedures ...

I am sure everyone saw cracks on the roads. All fixable. Sure costs more to fix those at platform.

There was simply enough people who worried about share price ... we gone up too fast to quickly.

Today is finally some possibility for Shorties to make a decent profit.

They have to earn money too. Respect.

I added a million at 38.5 sens. I thank you for this opportunity.
I am staying here for a while, so no worry about me dumping.

I also added some for 0.49. Panic buy. A bit too early. So nobody can time this market.

Not a problem at all. Will be back to normal soon.

If it stabilizes above 7 myr today ... likely to grow a bit more. Let short term profit takers sell. So far it is managed.

I can wait a bit with most of my stake.

Wow, and I was ONLY speculating about it 2 days ago. Yes, the past is already included in price discovery. This will take a few days to be capitalized. Announcements, recommendations, price targets, etc.

:-)

Maybe suspended to announce brazil contract award news and increase future contract, but taking impairment on vietnam?
Figure it out.
I go with the future rather than past.

Do I read it well, as it says 1.32 MYR ???
Maybe it is some mistake as all here discuss reaching 1.28.

Wow. At loss of words.

I am here and not giving up on a 7.00+ MYR idea. And seems to be getting closer. It is a bit of rising tide lifting all boats though.

I guess vietnam thing already taken into the account by major player. It has recovered fully. I expect at least 7 myr this month.