Come on, drop abit more, queuing at 0.88

Depends on the size of it in your portfolio, comparison your other opportunities etc etc.

Posted by RainT > Dec 10, 2017 01:54 PM | Report Abuse

Is it a buy to average down or sell to cut loss


He likes MHB, i also liked MHB, but now its up, need to study more, not too sure.

MHB is also at a very good price i think.

Posted by PotentialGhost > Dec 10, 2017 11:21 AM | Report Abuse

Only brainless people throw his share when market bearlish , buy on bullish , like nikicheong

Aiyo, why bring attention, let things go down more mah, give me bear market for 5 years can?

DO NOT TELL LIE , YOU DID NOT BUY HENGYUAN
HIGH YOU SCARE , LOW YOU WANT LOWER
HOW TO TO MAKE BIG MONEY

And this was me before rebuying in at 7.6 when the thing drop 15% after bad quarter result then loh

Don't nothing to do accuse people loh.

Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING CO BHD
Aug 1, 2017 02:30 AM | Report Abuse

I think you're right on this one stockraider.

I sold mine at 7.8, ill consider the extra i need to pay as tuition money.

AT THE END YOU MISS THE BOAT.
HAHAHA.....

Halite,

Btw, limpeh bought way way way before you lah, but i sold it at RM2.9 lah.

Don't believe me, my first few comments on i3 was on eko lah. Wealthwizard post part 1 i already there.

Sep 23, 2016 04:59 PM | Report Abuse

Picked up quite abit at 1.92

EPF also buy alot of property in UK, all of them now 10-15% drop.

EPF also buy alot of senergy, all the way from more than RM4 to less 90 sen.

EPF buy means they genius is it? Their valuations all like god and perfect is it?

Think for your self.

Just because something is worth RM2.8, does not mean you have to pay RM2.8 for the whole thing now, what for otherwise? There is a timecost factor mah.

In the event of a disposal, there is no such thing as a discount for the asset or company being acquired. That's why you see when takeover happen, people pay a premium, because no one will sell unless its at fair value or you're desperate.

I do like the IRR 18% (that ekovest guaranteed to EPF) of the highways, but i still need more discount, cause im not warren buffet with USD 100bil to throw tmr.

So when i buy, i want it really really cheap.


Posted by valuelurker > Dec 6, 2017 08:54 PM | Report Abuse

Dont know valuations diam la

EPF bought the 40% stake for RM1.13bil valuing DUKE at RM2.8bil

At that time net borrowings (ex-highway) were approx. RM400mil. Hence your 'enterprise value' is RM2.4bil

This excludes all property, all construction (No, it does not include the duke highway construction,only those from external contracts, your orderbook few billions all from your own projects where got counted noobs)

This excludes your DUKE 3 (and potentially DUKE 2A)

Anyway, its fast approaching my make friends price. Can buy a little soon.

Haha halite, you damn cute lah.

You comments all, make zero sense one. I'm too lazy to respond, its like throwing pearls to swine.

I did top up on hengyuan at 11.6 and 11 btw =) My original purchase was at 7.6.


Posted by Halite > Dec 6, 2017 09:10 PM | Report Abuse

Jon Choivo,

I know you better now

you are a half baked sifu

I am not going to waste time on your comment now

YTL power valuations wise, is damn expensive compared to tenaga or even malakoff. Ranhill i understand.

Affin is by undervalued no doubt, but they will not be able to leverage up as i dont see them being able to get deposits. But worth a punt.

3A is commodities, no real moat, not cheap valuations wise either.

LCTITAN, might as well get hengyuan or petronm if you're looking for refineries. Pchem is also 40% cheap than than LCTITAN valuations wise.

I have no idea why MBSB is in that list. By far the most expensive bank and financial institution in malaysia. Only ELK Desa is more expensive, but tbf, elk desa dont borrow money, use equity only.

nikicheong @Jon, don't fall for the "sunk cost" fallacy.
09/12/2017 10:00

I'll raise you this,

1) Don't mistake volatility / downtrend price with risk

It's current about 6% of portfolio. It's currently trading at ev/ebit of 3 flat.i use it mainly as a starting point, and I can tell you, less than 3 companies is cheaper in Bursa using that metric, ignoring redchips.

If I did not have it, I would bought some, but probably more like 3% of portfolio and prepared to average down to a max of 6 to 7% .

I cap it to 6-7% why? It's textiles, commodity, cost focused, low price flexibility. At 15% roic, it should be worth at the lowest book value. If its not there I don't sell.

One can now argue that they are better opportunities in the market, but I'm too lazy just too move 3% of portfolio around just to resize.

The mistake I made was in sizing the purchase, and inability to do proper opportunity cost comparison due to lack of research, but all in all, this is one of my less stupid buys this year.

If it had similar results as magni and went up, would I have been right then and would you be congratulating me as well as yourself as you would have bought it going up?

I definitely did not buy it for optimal reasons, the first was coldeye say can buy, stupid reason, you must still do research.

Second was that it was close to all time low when I bought, and cheap compared to magni valuations. Again stupid, valuation must be done on a bottoms up basis and compared to all other opportunities.

At 1.2, I couldn't sell. It was at 3.6, low enough to be undervalued. At 1, low enough to buy more, but I like the size at this price, unless I get like a million tmr or it drops to below 0.9, I'll probably still won't be buying more.

Below 0.9, I'll add 1 or 1.5% more.

Can send some news article for this?

Posted by hng33 > Dec 8, 2017 08:21 PM | Report Abuse

No doubt, sapura energy have high debt level, but part of the borrowing are actually incur in exploration and development on its oil block and gas block in various location surround Sabah and Sarawak offshore. These gas well are precious assets to sapura and are awaiting to monetize into cash flow,once each well development completed, each well will ensure profit visibility for many many year. Sapura already incur big capex in development its first gas well sk310, from exploration, secure right, secure agreement with Petronas, develop pipe as long as 35km to link to bintulu port, all incur big capex and expense and time. Now development alrdy fully completed, first harvest commence in oct, just last month, full profit should be record in next month.

Aside sk310 gas block, sapura also current in the midst of develop another even bigger block sk410 gas with gas reserve more than 15 trillion, about 7x bigger than sk310, but will only commercialize in next 2-3 year as agreement to sell gas to petronas have yet to sign.

Anyhow, sapura energy at average holding cost now 94sen is portfolio biggest stake. Portfolio will take a rest now as year end closing soon and holiday trip to start next week till next year only come back to bursa. Wish all good luck, cheers.

What is the value tell me?

Or are you just talking rebound? Naturally the longer a stock drop, the higher the likelihood of a rebound, but they can drop alot more than you think it would, so you better like what you buy at the price you paid.


Posted by Kris Wong > Dec 8, 2017 05:24 PM | Report Abuse

Value emerging, noted Q3 loss RM274 million but market cap down more than RM2 billion in 2 days !!!

50P/E, 60 sen can consider in view of the higher opex.

Well, at least learn from this. Forget about TA, focus on fundamentals.

Posted by yizzy > Dec 8, 2017 05:08 PM | Report Abuse

don't know this weekend can sleep can eat or not.. loss a lot

This company, finance cost is ~900mil a year, their profit, if any can barely cover the cost. Interest cover is less than 2.

And this one not yet even start on paying back the loan of Rm15bil. This company still got a long way more to go down.

Just because EPF buy does not mean its good. EPF got too much cash, nothing to do.

This is how you die.

Posted by Jolin Lai Chi Pet > Dec 8, 2017 12:42 PM | Report Abuse

pinjam ah long also must buy this stock now, later no more cheap sales!!!!!!! next week tp Rm1 above...............

If hng33 still hold, margin call d. Lost at least 75% of capital.

Fuck good result, i want good business at cheap price.

TegasTSSB Ringgit strengthen, potential revenue and profit drop due to forex conversion losses for Q4 result. Do not expect good result for Q4.
07/12/2017 19:29

I like how you never at any point admitted fault or said you were wrong in any of your post.

But when anyone argues against you, you call them chickai lah, pokkai lah, sohai lah, pondan lah. Call people so loud in evergreen, now got go apologize to CKCS a not?

That your modus operandi right, when you can't argue point for point or with logic, just do character assassination and call names. Neoh Soon Kean must be very proud of his former office boy.

I left evergreen a long time ago, around 0.89. Because i know the bosses there really like to makan little bit here, little bit there one.

If make money is all that matters, the person invest in bitcoin at USD4K must be best human being on earth, the person run ponzi scheme also must be best human being on earth, drug cartels in Mexico on is like Buddha.

Don't try and act stupid.


Posted by stockraider > Dec 7, 2017 05:53 PM | Report Abuse

U talk so much cock like small kid loh...!!

Learn what raider did mah...sell all evergreen N dump all to hengyuan mah, it is all documented, what raider did, what there to talk about leh ??

Look at the future whether still can make $$$$$$$$$ that is more important loh....!!

Don act like pondan always want to look at the past, just reflect on the past & move on loh....!!

Where did you last see it ah? I cant find it in the 2014 ar either.


koktong43 I am still puzzle at the missing 200 acres land at Pontian. It is missing from the list of properties owned by Daiman in the last 2 AR. Can anyone help? Thanks.
20/07/2017 23:48

What the hell is with you people and trend.

Stocks go up or down for different reasons. MRCB and SAPNRG is completely different business, with completely different health.


Posted by Geo123 > Dec 7, 2017 05:36 PM | Report Abuse

The downtrend is very similar to MRCB few months ago

At the very least, admit up to your mistakes and your faults.

Stop acting like all your picks sure win one, hengyuan definitely got things worth worrying about, its just that at this price, its arguably worth it.

Problem is, as usual, all time high earnings got a way of making things seem cheap.

Posted by stockraider > Dec 7, 2017 05:36 PM | Report Abuse

The gap is too far loh....!!

Furthermore i don evergreen share, why want to waste time leh ??

Why don u challenge whether HENGYUAN can be higher than Rm 12.00 by the end of the year ??

Hahahahaha, i still rmbr that. The goreng king.

Posted by Cockrider > Dec 7, 2017 05:33 PM | Report Abuse

Just challenge raider...with a real substantial monies bet like Rm 100k for a start loh...!!RAIDER BET WITH U BY...END 31-12-2017....EVERGREEN WILL BE ABOVE RM 1.OO LOH...!!

U DARE BET OR NOT ??

At some point, the bosses will need to either privatize or the price will go down.

Im guessing they have taken out personal loans tied to the stock price, cause buying the share now is unbelievably stupid and capital destroying.

Because it went up? Not too clear about the company, but low debt etc. Not even sure if its really profitable.

Can point me to something to read.


Posted by OrlandoOIL > Dec 7, 2017 05:21 PM | Report Abuse

Only O&G can buy is Hibiscus

hng33, i hope you didnt really sailang 3X margin on this. From your price at 1.07 to now 0.965, 10% X 3 =30% loss on total capital.

Im not sure you insane or brilliant, or basically lost money so buy more now.

That oil field can contribute how much only. Don't forget the ~15 billion in net debt.

How to survive like that.

Posted by hng33 > Dec 7, 2017 02:59 PM | Report Abuse

All balance capital and all margin line capital, fully in, all at 1.07

Im not sure i'll even pay 50 sen for this company.

10bil of the asset is intangible or private investment, for safety, ill value it at zero.

PPE give 40% discount.

Like this, basically negative equity d.

20-30 sen can buy, margin of safety big enough, this price, way way way too high.

Undervalue compared to what?

Ekovest EV/EBIT is now 13. Favco is now 3.4. Prlexus now is 3.2. Latitude is a 3 flat.

What those numbers mean, is how many years it would take for the company to earn back your cost, assuming you buy the entire company upfront for cash right now, using the current market price.

Favco, one of the best crane company in the world, despite low oil prices, still maintain fantastic balance sheet, good div payout. Despite depressed earnings, valuation is still this cheap. Buy whole company now, pay you back in 3.4 years.

Prlexus, textiles, not the best business, but they almost every year grow profit and revenue except for 2017. Buy whole company now, pay you back in 3.2 years.

Latitude, furniture, everywhere hurricane, sure need new furniture. Company not really expanding anymore, but still at the current price, its as if people expect the company to die in 3-4 years.

This is just 3 companies, got so many more, what about the net asset plays?

Dont even need to say about petron or hengyuan, those 2 are around 5 and 4. Which is very low for a refinery company, which have high barriers of entry, but scary thing for those co's is earnings is all time high. And all time high earnings have a way of making things look cheap.

Tell me now, why is ekovest cheaper or more undervalued than any of the companies i listed above.

What are the un-quantifiable things that are so incredible in ekovest that its worth paying 2-5 times more in terms of valuations?

I love high way business, but is it worth the extra valaution? Yes, maybe, i dont know. Its not low enough where i can say, yeap should definitely be worth it.

Posted by SJSOON > Dec 6, 2017 02:24 PM | Report Abuse

John, you have better say Ekovest is worth nothing. You are just insensible and try to fool around the rest of people. Big joke, man!

Posted by 77huat77 > Dec 6, 2017 01:27 PM | Report Abuse

Jon stop bullshiting around that you know the intrinsic value of ekovest ! I can say ekovest is very very undervalue also at 0.7 0.8 and even now also. Pattern banyak banyak , I feel really disgusting when this kind of people come out.

That is an incredibly hard question to answer. Due to the amount of unknowns, Duke 2 and Duke 3. If opposition win, what will happen to these highways.

Duke 1 the traffic prediction was on point, will this be the same for Duke 2 and Duke 3?

Using LITRAK as a base, the fair value of DUKE 1 should be around 1.3 bil. That means you are paying 700 mil for the construction and prop dev arm. I think the construction and prop dev arm should be worth RM700 mil easily or more.

However, we dont buy companies because they are at fair value, unless the business is so fantastic and have good growth. A fantastic business is one that is on the true path of doing business. Providing the best service at the best price. Very hard to kill, cause customers like, politician no choice but to like also even if they dont feed them, because the people like mah.

This business is not fantastic, its at best good. So I need a discount.

This naturally have not taken into account a proper dcf for duke 2 and duke 3 plus iwcity acquisition, other than those 3 should be a positive.

You ask me for precise figure, i cannot give. Its really not easy, valuation wise, Eko is same price with IJM and Gamuda. Both also got construction, prop dev and highway.

Except the highway in Eko is a much high proportion of income and rev compared to those 2, and eko highway is new and got 2 more highway coming in.

All i know is this, Bursa got alot of company selling at great discounts, some of them are even wonder businesses.

Just because Eko is cheap does not mean i should buy, cheap compared to what? Nestle ? or Favco? Favco is 6 times cheaper than Ekovest except they don't have highway. But Favco got best cranes in the world, and O&G industry should recover abit, cranes will need to buy. And Favco now is still this cheap valuations wise despite using all time low earnings.

All i know is, not cheap enough. For me at least.

0.85, cheap enough to buy abit, i dont mind holding if it go down. 0.8, can buy a bit more. 0.7 and below can buy even more.

But that does not mean that price cannot go up lah, it might go up and not give me chance to buy, in which case, nvm loh, good for everyone here, i buy other things.

Posted by Halite > Dec 6, 2017 12:29 PM | Report Abuse

Jon,

What is your intrinsic value of ekovest ?
What is your margin of safety?
Mind to share?
Sorry to say we are not new here , we do not like general statement .

If KYY dont have OTB and KCC, he would have lost more than 50% of his networth by now.

Posted by Tom > Dec 6, 2017 05:29 PM | Report Abuse

你讲倒反了，应该是假如没有 otb 的 advice，kyy 不会推荐 vs，latitude，pohuat，liihen，hy....
没有otb的帮忙，kyy连狗屁都不如

Mr Tan, how do you put the stock label on a blog post ah.

Not sure if i should buy abit more anot, i do dislike affin as a bank, but dat price tho. Rce is better i think, more undervalued and better business.

Fuck trends. I dont know where price going to go. I only know roughly whats the intrinsic value of the company and the discount/margin of safety i require. Ekovest is not there yet.

Posted by amet2017 > Dec 6, 2017 12:19 PM | Report Abuse

ada org takut mau enter sebab dia tgk downtrend tak tau bila mau stop. esoknya dia tgk naik pulak sikit.mungkin sebab itu jadi gila, datang sini ketawa ke langit.

My target price has always been the same. At 0.7 its severely undervalued, can buy alot, at 0.8, its pretty undervalued, worth buying. At 0.85, its similarly undervalued, can make friends and buy a bit (1-2% of portfolio) to keep track. Just in case.

Posted by Halite > Dec 6, 2017 11:36 AM | Report Abuse

Jon choivo,
Very good,
You target buy price had increased from 70 cents to 80 cents and now 85 cents
A good thing

The purchase of IWC by ekovest is definitely not a bad thing, even at that price.

Ekovest might even be undervalued, but compared to other undervalued stocks in the bursa, its not that undervalued.

I'll be keeping track of this company, ill consider buying when it drops below 0.85, but if UMNO wins this election, straight sailang in. All uncertainty covered d.

Can someone tell me where it is in the annual reports did it state tat last time hengyuan must sell to shell at bad price, now no need?

Stop complaining about market, and say you're investor. If you're investor, you should pray that market drop more, so that you got chance to gather money and buy more.

I'm hoping market is shit till at least next year, can use bonus etc to buy some.

If by the 80 sen. Waseh, can celebrate d.

Posted by amet2017 > Dec 5, 2017 01:28 PM | Report Abuse

Too many speculators nowadays, FA is slowly dying as even profit making company's share price is being manipulated and speculated. Has the take over exercise been confirmed?

This should basically the way to invest, instead of constantly goreng-ing left right centre and trying to affect sentiment.


Posted by Alex Foo > Dec 5, 2017 10:19 AM | Report Abuse

actually, Ricky's comment is applicable to all counters in bursa. Just copy paste this comment and nobody talks already. Forum can shut. Just invest in your own little room.

An overvalued stock can go high, and an undervalued stock can go lower.

If hengyuan drop to RM8 then RM5 cause North Korea bomb Japan. Would you have the balls to buy more.

Posted by deMusangking > Dec 5, 2017 10:19 AM | Report Abuse

Ricky, we are not questioning u!!! we believe u r well versed with PE and what not!! i intend to buy more if there is no risk at this price!! tks

Close eye. I have no more cash, but im not willing to touch margin. Just don't open the itrade unless got more money come in. I like my picks.

This is definitely the time to buy into BJCORP.

But please remember, you must go into this with a view that it is a very long term play, and preferably diversified, unless you're the kind that looks at absolute returns and can wait and tahan the volatility or non-movement.

I dont fully agree with OTB style, but i cannot deny its effectiveness, at least in the short/medium term for the time being.

oi88, you're being unfair. What about penta, vs, liihen, choobee, etc etc

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Dec 5, 2017 09:34 AM | Report Abuse

Posted by oi88 > Dec 4, 2017 10:30 PM | Report Abuse

MOST OTB pick go holland, only Heng Yuan win.

Ans :
Market sentiment is very bad, many of my recommended stocks, cut loss level is triggered. Many also suffer losses including me.

I buy Hengyuan at 5.95, add position at 8.00 and 10.00.

The gain on Hengyuan alone is able to cover 10 stocks cut loss easily.
Hence my 2017 portfolio is still gain > 50%.

Is my recommendation very bad ?

Talk is easy, please show me your records if yours is better than mine.

Thank you.
Ooi

I think fair value for malakoff is around 90 sen or so. Unless the utilities industry is undervalued in general. in which case tenaga, malakoff, ranhill and pba are all undervalued.

Congratulations everyone,

I topped up on hengyuan today.

I'm still not sure it should be worth RM21, since the earning this time is all time record, and like all things, it should regress back to the mean.

But, its definitely cheap now. And new refineries is not easy to open, need time.

How did i fail? What happened is that you failed to take into account alternative realities. Everything, i mean absolutely everything hit the home run for hengyuan this quarter.

Gain per barrel, increased crack price, USD gain, refinery shut down in europe and USA. This resulted in the all time highest quarter for hengyuan since 2008. I dont have record going back further. If any of those didnt happen, the quarter will not be that good.

Remember the 900mil loss in 2014? This is that equivalent again except in the opposite.

I do concede that book value is something i definitely look at, its important to determine the existence and value of the asset. And i do particularly love property companies with great balance sheets, selling below book value, and with a major parts of their assets still recorded in 1990 prices or 1978 prices. As people should, if you consider shares a fractional share of a business.

But my largest position (30% of portfolio) is trading at 2x book value. About 55% of my holdings trade at above book value, with no hidden assets. Alot of their value is qualitative anintagible.

Don't be sour over me calling out your incongruities in Ekovest. I am definitely thinking about buying some soon though. Alot of construction companies look cheap now.

Halite ricky yeo,

i am one of your follower .

"......It is the expected value that takes into account the magnitude of both upside and downside that counts.........."

this is not an easy job .... too many assumptions, not a fair and unbiased calculation

Jon Choivo had done it for hengyuan but fail , if not now , sure to be later

Haha too cheap to sell, not cheap enough to buy more. Oh well.

Isnt the profitability of iwcity known already? The land sale thing was confirmed already no? Felicity also did a post.

What's the prime reason for buying tropicana?

Asset basis, its not as undervalued compared to other companies like plenitude, daiman, uems.

Earnings wise, pretty ok-ish but not spectacular comparatively.

The only thing i see is topglove boss factor.

Why do you guys buy in? Or is it mainly punting it, better it will go up over the next week/month?