I don't want director to have incentive to manage or maintain or manipulate the share price. I want them to focus on the business.

They should also however, think about what gives real return to the shareholders, and buying back severely undervalued shares is one of them. Last year they spent easily RM10mil buying back the shares. Directors also buying back the shares.

Now market property market is soft. This is precisely the time you should make sure you have enough cash to take advantage of the downturn, and buy more land etc. Not go give out dividend, although no doubt, a small one would be beneficial.

Total key management salaries is 30m. Is that high? Maybe. But its not excessive considering the profit and management of the company.

I'm ok with it. I dont mind if the share price stays low. This is market giving you chance to buy.


upsidedown119 @Jon Choivo. That's exactly the point. If the directors'remuneration is in the form of share options, they will have incentives to maintain the share price.

If paid in pure cash like KSL, they can have the best of both worlds - paying themselves obscene salaries and thrashing the share price in order to collect (at RM1 per share, it may be as good as share option) using their obscene salaries. In the meantime, the minors will be sent to holland.

Being paid at RM30 million per year, the directors can wait a long time before they, if ever, implement share-price friendly policies.

KSL's directors seems to be mentally and morally sick somewhere!
05/03/2018 14:02

I agree, i hope like arsenal. For 14 years, the share price never move. But fundamentals improve!


Posted by meiling0809 > Mar 5, 2018 01:57 PM | Report Abuse

rubbish !
simply is a big rubbish !
worse than arsene wenger !

Div payout and share buybacks are the same thing to me.

Then dont buy loh. I don't really care if discount for 5 more years. Just keep buying. Make sure its in cash and i can hold.

If discount for 50 years, i will be the owner of a lot of KLSE listed company. Also ok, not a problem. Don't need people tell me how much i'm worth.





hollandking last year also megasale leh, but this year mega sale too
05/03/2018 11:18

mikeyong not sure how long more this downtrend will continue.. gotta wait a while more.. =.=

Jon Choivo Why not buy some then.

Its like malaysia having mega sale, and people selling cheap.

05/03/2018 11:18

Banks average interest charged is 5-6%

RCE and AEONCR charges 20% effective interest rate. They loan to higher risk groups, so at interest rates will be higher, and naturally impairment rates will also be higher.

The thing you should be looking out for is the impairment rate over the total receivables.

Of course, it can always be better.

For banking stocks, a lot depends on the management. So one thing i keep track off is the management comments and how they say and see things.



asdf Thanks Jon

If exercise due diligence performance could be better.
Or this is an acceptable figure for this industry.
I am no finance man.
05/03/2018 13:05

Share price should not be part of the remuneration package.

Hapseng if you notice last 3 years, they use revaluation to pump up the profit figure so that it looks like an even increase. Now the company is very overvalued.

Why not buy some then.

Its like malaysia having mega sale, and people selling cheap.


Posted by mikeyong > Mar 5, 2018 11:16 AM | Report Abuse

Even with good fundamentals, i guess its the world market sentiment not taking risk at the moment.. sad to see my shares drop.. =.=

Current results have already fully impaired that.

asdf 3rd qtr report ended 31-12-17
non-performing loans= RM 65,680k
That is high
04/03/2018 05:25

I can see how some buyback is in order.

Aiyo guys. Just relax. If got value, over time will go up, if no value. Gg loh. This one looks like the former.

Go out with friend etc. Yumcha. Talk to your children. They already say very clearly is investment holding company. Don't expect so much dividend etc.

Might be worth a punt i guess.

I'm always a little fearful of buying construction stocks unless they have a good track record and at somewhere near all time low, because earnings could very well just take a dive suddenly.

What's you thought process on valuing these, and how much would you put? I'm guessing you look at track record and order book?

No idea where price heading. I know where business is heading. Bought more today. :)


Posted by slts > Mar 1, 2018 11:23 AM | Report Abuse

y talk history, grandpa also know. should talk
future where price heading

I think you guys are forgetting that other than LPI, this is the only insurance operator that make a profit on the premium.

Which means the cost of their float is free.

Problem is. Most insurance companies have top class individuals investing that float. TUNEPRO does not have that. Most of the float invest in bonds or malaysian treasury bonds.

Suggest at the agm that they hire me to manage their float ahahaha.

Not a shareholder yet, but im looking.

Why not plenitude if you want high nta stock, better BS and more div.

This company looks interesting.

@foreverchung,

Yeap. Spot on.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/142735.jsp

I wrote a small bit of research on it, let me know if i missed out on anything, especially if you feel i made a mistake. Id like the perspective of a user. I never had the chance to your their lines.

Now that is very very conservative, assuming profit per year only 4mil.

If profit you estimate at say 10mil. Margin of safety goes up to 61%. Or even just 6 mil per annum. Margin of safety is 46%.

Thats a lot.

But of course, remember, what is low can go much much much lower. There are at least 4-5 companies in malaysia trading at less than net cash and cash equivalents. 2 of them is even profitable!

Lets just look at the figures.

cash and cash equivalents is RM98mil. No borrowings. That means this company, you buy now at current market valuation, only 28mil.

Lets say worse case scenario, the company only make 1m per quarter or 4 mil per year till forever. Discount that at 4.5% (Fd/risk free rate rate). The company should still be worth around RM89mil.

Conservative FV: RM89mil + RM 98mil= RM187mil.

Current price of RM125 mil present margin of safety 34%.

That's pretty good.

Im not that happy with the result core earnings are not up, but mainly derivative gain.

But oh well, its still cheap. Ill hold.

Haha didnt really affect me, cause i know what the normalized PE was. I was ready to pay 30 normalized P/E. But like i told everyone it is fair value or above fair value and not cheap.

Problem is, truly fantastic companies are almost never cheap. PBBANK is always one of the most expensive banks in malaysia for the last 50 years.

This stock i know, if i tmr coma, wake up 30 year later. My portfolios should still be ok. I can don't want look at stocks or annual reports for a year also can. Very few companies can give me that.

In the meantime, paper loss since my average is 9.5. its ok, i have no commitments, everything in cash. i can hold or even top up if the time comes.

singgang I believe this company is good for a long term...as i used to invest more than 50% of my portfolio....but when I realized the PE is suddenly up then I quickly disposed all my share....I just waiting the right time to reinvest again when the price is undervalue..i.e PE <15 or <10....Overtime i strongly believe this company will group up and give market capitalization equally to its peers like TM,Maxis or digi......but i would take a longer time by looking at current growth now. And by that time I would miss other attractive counter which is growing much faster than time.
27/02/2018 16:02

Because back then, jon choivo not yet start investing.Hahahahaha

Is it too high?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/142803.jsp

Based on my analysis, i don't think so. Let me know what i missed out in my analysis.

There is margin of safety in terms of NTA, earnings, business etc.

Munger said this once, berkshire made more from See's candy a company he paid 2x book value, than a retailer berkshire paid below liquidation value for.

Not everything of value is measurable. And not everything that can be measured is of value.

Look at puncak, i think its still cheap, but does not seem cheaper than last i saw 6 months back despite price dropping. Why? Well that beautiful more than 1 billion in cash, so much of it disappear into buying mediocre assets at somewhat inflated prices.



Posted by calvintaneng > Feb 28, 2018 11:28 AM | Report Abuse

How come John Choivo missed RceCap at 27.5 sen when it is giving 7.5 sen cash back? And Tan Sri Hashim of AmBank also buying?

Now too high to chase lah

Calvin,

You talk about alot of shares. And every one of them, you talk like its the best share in the world. Like the person should sell their mom and sailang.

You have a list of good stocks you choose when people talk shit about you. But you sure keep quiet about the ones that dont perform. :)

I'm just saying stop selling it, or trying to sell it by predicting "future super bull price movement, SURE GO UP".

If the difference between the intrinsic value is so far below the price, it will go up, matter of time. But when nobody know.

But of course this does not really matter to you, since you want the price to go up now for you to sell.

I think its a little immoral to steal candy from children. Which, in this case is people who dont know better, cant read between the lines, or know your history.

But either way, ill still read your research,and occasionally, buy it

Thing to note about TA, this year, most of the gain was investment gain, about 200m. Minus that, everything else only made 40m or so. Which is ok if you part out the investment division. But still.

Hmm

Again remember guys, i know its hard.

Calvin is smart and knows how to do good research. But he's an ex car salesman and a natural born sales man. All he wants to do is goreng the price.

If you like can buy abit, i personally have been looking at TA for awhile. But still hmm, got better deals i think.

Parkson, PMCORP, Insas, Puncak. They all trade below net cash and cash equivalents.

Trust me, things can get alot crazier. I'm not sure how my investment in latitud will turn out but ill just hold, only 5% position anyway. Still wondering if im stupid or not.

Val-Eita
Whilst its net asset will provide a cushion, maybe a bottom of 300-330 (Net cash+convertable to cash items is about 2.80 per share, it's totally crazy for it to go below net cash/convertable to cash value)

This guy owns 32% of the company, and is the largest shareholder. He is essentially the boss d lah. Just give him the seat.

True, difference is this. TIME has plenty of room to grow, and they will keep all their current customers and continue taking customers from the rest.

You can't say that for any of the others.

When i paid average 9.4 or so. I paid above fair value for it. At 8. Its at fair value, or maybe a little lower. Its already my largest position at 31% of portfolio.

It needs to drop to something like 15-20 PE before i can top up. Either way, if my analysis is correct, and this turns out to be the next public bank 10-20 years from now. Whether i paid 8 or 9.4 will make little difference. The question is if i held it for that 10-20 years.

Anyway, as always, let me know if i missed out something. Criticism is always much preferred. Its hard to know if you're wrong with compliments.


Posted by singgang > Feb 26, 2018 04:52 PM | Report Abuse

Revenue is increasing but the PE now on the higher side same like Maxis, Axiata, Digi...last year PE 11.05, now shooting to 30.08...too bad to hold....waiting for PE to reduce below 15 and will only consider to reenter

Fairly ok with the result. I think next year will be quite fantastic. I will top up a little if it drops.

I don't see a problem with the result tbh. Quite happy with it.

For those looking quarter to quarter. Next one should be good, as we will get the insurance payout gain. And its back to full capacity production, with no overtime charges.

Fairly ok with the results. My expectations for the results is not high considering how cheap it is.

Ok, im interested.

What's stopping a competitor from undercutting OCK and building towers and leasing them cheaper? Is OCK the cost leader? or quality leader, in which case, stability is more important than price.

What moat do they have? How is the margin compression, or is it due to initial depreciation cost?

Ok, im interested.

What's stopping a competitor from undercutting OCK and building towers and leasing them cheaper? Is OCK the cost leader? or quality leader, in which case, stability is more important than price.

What moat do they have? How is the margin compression, or is it due to initial depreciation cost?

I meant "now" instead of "not" ahah. Typo.

Well, discounts is not over i think. Since KYY is completely out of liihen.

I can barely wait for a recession, so that all the noise in i3 will reduce properly for awhile.

God, i miss bear markets so much.

Do note the company is taking on debt to pay your dividend.

He likes to max margin.



Posted by bluebiznet > Feb 12, 2018 07:03 PM | Report Abuse

I search on liihen latitude and vs annual reports since 2010... The price went up few hundred percents is true. But if you estimate the shareholding from the annual report. to be fair to kyy... For the one whole years he started appears in the 30 largest SH...even if i use the lowest entry price for him, he also didnt make few hundred percents... He enter half and the most maybe 100% or more a little bit

This is a very interesting company for a case study.

Even Yeoman bought about 4 million shares in 2012. They only hold about 2.1 now. Because of how hard it is to finish selling.

This is what happens when you fail at branding and brand maintenance.

Yeap, there should be a restatement. But it will only be done in the annual report. im not sure if they will do it for the quarterly.


Jarklp i thought accounts will be reinstated under MFRS9, changes will be treated as prior year adjustments? Equity will have one off impact, but less so on future earnings.
With a higher provision , effectively more buffers to absorb future losses. if portfolio's credit profile is not deteriorating, earnings should improve instead, no? i could be wrong, i am not an accountant.
08/02/2018 23:48

Valeant went all the way up to more than 200 before crashing to below 17 dollar per share. During its high, Charlie Munger called it a cesspool of shit.

The movement of price is largely irrelevant in terms of whether you are right or wrong.

A an investor must be willing to appear wrong often and be wrong rarely.

If you think i made an error in my analysis of MBSB, write an analysis on the fundamentals saying why. Don't quote me price movements.

You want prediction of price movement, i'm not the guy, and many people look like the guy but is not the guy.

They appear to be right most of the time, but is actually right rarely.

Go cari those people. Or feel free to disparage RCECAP and help me lower my future purchase price. With some luck, by 2019 i may even enter top 30! :)


Posted by PotentialGhost > Feb 8, 2018 08:05 PM | Report Abuse

Actually job choivo do so much analysis in bank stock but finally he don't know anything , when mbsb selling at 1.04 he note that mbsb overvalued , but today mbsb 1.19。

No business sense and don't know what is value 。just read few book already think is next warren Buffett malaysia。

But carlorino is the rubbish brand of the company though. The nice brands are braun Buffel etc.

They want that brand separate, thats good.

Also do note, the next quarter results wont be pretty. MFRS 9 is likely to whack one time, this applies to all financial institutions. Although, i think RCECAP will get whack less on a percentage basis compared to banks etc.

Result was incredibly horrifying, only 5% increase. i hope everyone sells so that i, the rubbish collector can buy some. :)

For RCECAP, their current loans issued are fixed rates. which mean that they will not be able to enjoy this gain. Future loans should be able to.

In terms of their cost base (borrowings) however, the floating rate loans will record a 0.25% interest increase or thereabouts. While fixed rate will stay the same.

Feel free to quantify it yourselves (look at the NIM and ROA as well), to decide if its material or immaterial.

I'm not going to purposely push my cost price up.

TLDR: Rate hike, bad for RCECAP. Rate drop, good for RCECAP.

Fabien why TG? Valuations wise, Liihen is much better no?

You guys should probably know that AEONCR will not be able to enjoy the 0.25% OPR rate increase as their loans are fixed rate. However, some of their borrowing is in RM, and will kena additional 0.25% cost though.

If it reaches 2, can privatize d.

If it drops to RM1, ill buy in then and average down.

Calvin,

Last time you say bull market, must put all into market.

Now you say bear market, must put all into market.

Last time you say less than 3% in market, now you say all spare cash in market.

Which is it ah? Or it does not matter anyway as long as you keep goreng your shares.

For a guy who has only 3% of your networth in KLSE markets, you sure spend alot of time frying up your stocks loh.

Calvin,

Last time you say bull market, must put all into market.

Now you say bear market, must put all into market.

Last time you say less than 3% in market, now you say all spare cash in market.

Which is it ah? Or it does not matter anyway as long as you keep goreng your shares.

For a guy who has only 3% of your networth in KLSE markets, you sure spend alot of time frying up your stocks loh.

I can average down all the way if fundamentals does not change for the worse.

If it drops to 5 sen, ill privatize it. Hahahaha

Aaxfan No one will know how deep can it falls lol
02/02/2018 14:15

zero,

At this price, people are pricing it as if it has no prospect at all, that their net asset is worth less than what is written in the FS, and as if the management is rubbish.

All of which is untrue.

I'm not that big of a fan of projecting too far into the future. Pearl city and their current developments should keep it busy for the next 2-3 years.

ECOWORLD etc on the other hand, yes best management etc etc, but at 20 pe, you're paying for it and more imho.

Do note that i'm probably buying only a small 2-3% position, due to lack of cash and other just as attractive opportunities.