Fortunately...

can wait lah. Let everyone has a climatic sell-off first

Weak holders need to be flushed out.

Probably more movement before/after div. Now yawning..

Ask Lim AS

Just for your reading. Can ignore it coz it's really really overpriced now :P (pun intended). http://www.stocks-unleashed.com/2013/09/scientex-rm510-target-long-term-above.html

Ya. But I'm targeting it to reach RM8 in two years. I like to overprice stocks and I keep buying it.

I'm just looking at the story behind TA's upgrade. Why do they upgrade Scientex's earnings by 10% to RM123mil after contacting the management? Scientex already announced 9MFY13 of RM80mil and last minute TA upgraded forecasts when results were just 3 weeks away. This would mean RM43mil per quarter for Scientex from their initial forecast of RM30mil. So, IMO, I think the company did extremely well this quarter that prompted TA to upgrade. But RM43mil per quarter? That will be a huge increase! I will be very happy if it makes RM35mil.

Based on TA's report, Scientex earnings in the latest quarter should be more than RM40mil (So good? We'll see). Its new expansion into F&B which command way higher prices than its existing industrial packaging will increase its margins, in addition to USD strength. This kinda company should command PER of at least 12x due to recession proof business. I bet its price will reach more than RM6 by year end. Let's wait for its quarterly results which will be out by month end. Could surprise everyone :P

Bank deposit rate is a very very poor gauge to choose stocks. I would put it at one of the last criteria for stock investment.

Scientex will be earning at least 55c for the following year, translating into PER of less than 10x. You should compare with its peers ie Daibochi, Cenbond, Tomypak etc. CBIP dependent on projects from palm oil producers, restricted to just the SEA region whereas Scientex products are exported to the whole world. What about global demand for its products? What about currency exposure? What about the resilience against global slowdown? Are these taken into consideration?

Stocks with zero dividends can be thrown out of the window then :P Stocks with little dividends due to the need for capex to ensure future growth will not be considered also? I will look at PER, ROE, future growth prospects, net assets, company's boss ownership, boss' participation, industry competition etc.

With RM weakening continually, today gonna break multi year low of RM3.33/US again, it's very hard for glove stock prices to drop already. And USD will keep recovering amidst QE tapering, weakening Malaysian economy and govt finances and the recent BNM decision to put rates on hold.

I shall not be bothered about it and just hold it. Relook again 3 months later. Wait till the market fully realize Supermax value till it breaches RM3 per share.

Where does the 40cts come from?

Where will the investors go in this kinda environment? Budget 2014 will be a tightening one. Major big projects will be scaled back or cancelled. Petronas profits declining, huge O&G projects will be scaled back like the RAPID. RM will weaken. Petrol, electricity, water etc etc will be more expensive. Banks, properties, construction, O&G players, manufacturers for domestic market will get hit. What's left? Supermax. Which stock will get 'goreng'? Supermax.

*correction: KLCI, not KLSE

If it reaches that level, the whole KLSE has to go down another 70 points.

Please sell so that I can buy more :P

Not a worry. Minority shareholders just reject if it's too low. Look at TWSP, MISC.

2H always better than 1H historically. FY2012 recurring profit was RM23mil. Profits for 2014 is anyone's guess. Annualized profits based on just one quarter is not so accurate, myself included. I look at trends plus future prospects. GW plastics net profit: 2007:RM5.4mil; 2008:RM8.9mil; 2009:RM15.3mil; 2010:RM21mil; 2011:RM19.6; 2012:RM23mil; 2013:???; 2014:RM25-30mil?

RM15mil annually from GW Plastics? Around RM25-30mil I think. GW Plastic 4Q recurring net income about RM7mil per quarter. Annualized it will be RM28mil. Assuming the capacity rise 50%, will be RM14mil. In addition to the synergies involved, profits should be >RM14mil.

RM120mil per annum profit no problem, 54.5sen EPS. Capex RM50mil to expand into lucrative F&B business by acquiring machineries etc to be completed by end 2014. Will expand this segment by 50% and contribute extra RM15-20mil to the overall net profit per year.

Scientex gonna be in The Busy Weekly. Wondering if anyone read it? Mind to share Lim Peng Jin's plans for the company? I'm in HK unfortunately. Thanks!

Just watch how the boss buy its own shares and emulate :P

Coldeye's 5 rules in stock investing...It will be nice if it's that simple. http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900214344.jsp

Long term investment? For me it's about value, not about duration. it's about fundamentals. If value cheap, buy. If value expensive, sell. If share price haven't reached fair value, just hold. If it rises within one day to fair value, sell. I guess this way applies more to this counter. Now Iskandar is hot and Iskandar Waterfront IPO will be in a few months time (July?), could be a rerating catalysts for Iskandar related stocks.

Daiman is dirt cheap. Hold it for long term won't lose. RM232mil in cash and investments (liquid assets), 2,300 acres of land for development in Johor (just put it RM650,000 per acre) worth RM1.5bil, plus other assets such as Landmark, golf courses and other leisure businesses, its value should be more than 3 times the current market cap. Sell this stock for what?

Good. I'm picking up at this level now and average down should there be more selldown.

Hi KC,

Those with F&B exposure and pay good dividends are resilient and likely stand the current volatile markets, so they are also more preferred among investors. Right now my focus is on two counters only, Scientex and Johotin which I will hold through the elections. Not too keen on any other stocks at the moment. Johotin shares seem to be in accumulation mode and director (Lim Hun Swee) keeps buying at current levels. He has been accumulating more than RM3-4mil worth of shares over the past 4-5months around RM1.61-1.82, which partly cement my conviction on this counter.

The next quarter's financials gonna be fantastic. Likely will touch RM30mil per quarter from now on due to consolidation of GW Plastics and the synergies from leveraging GW Plastic's F&B business and Scientex's packaging capacity. F&B operation is much more lucrative than industrial packaging, thus I expect their profit margins to rise as well. Good luck!

The warrant price consists of intrinsic value plus time value. Intrinsic value: mother price minus exercise price. Time value is calculated using some complicated equations such as Black Scholes Option model. So, the IB is not making any serious mistakes in my opinion. Some online calculator for your reference: http://www.hoadley.net/options/optiongraphs.aspx?warrant=Y

KC, you've provided a lot of invaluable knowledge and info to i3 yourself :) I'm just visiting. Hehe..

Intrinsic value meaning valuation of a company? Every investor has to do it on their own. Or the simple way out. You can look at analyst reports to see their target prices. But then again, you've to judge whether their reports are trustworthy or not. I think here in i3 we have good support from research houses like kenanga, maybank, cimb, osk and TA reports to help us out here.

Johotin WA fixed at RM2.28 lah :P Johotin very hard to drop. If drop till RM1.28, WA will be zero and the main shareholders will be eating all the bombed down shares. Why fixed WA at RM2.28? becoz management believes Johotin is worth way more than that.