what does good counter means?

Some notes:

1. People shouting for share buyback is stupid. Why? Management's duty is to manage business well, not to control share price. In the long term if business is doing well, it will reflect in share price. 2nd, buyback only make sense if company has too much cash which cannot be put into good use. What is good use, such as invest in capex, dividend etc. Buyback comes last. Last, buyback only create shareholder value if it is below intrinsic value, or else it destroy shareholders value, who is shareholders? you. Is current price below intrinsic value? No.

2. Hapseng no doubt is a steady conglomerate. However it's price has run up to $4.90 doesnt mean it is worth $4.90. And if you really think it's price is worth that much, why you crying over current price? Should be a bargain to buy and buy.

3. When most shares are falling left and right in 2nd half of 2014, everyone is proud of Hapseng, the invisible/defensive stock in Bursa. Now a sudden drop and everyone are shaking their legs. Has the fundamental changed in 3 months? Or are you lacking faith? Or you just buy because it looks invisible?

4. Hapseng property development contribute over 50% of net income, has one of the best profit margin compare to other division. If other property stocks are trading close to NTA or PE of 6-10, shouldnt Hapseng deserve the same?

Just my opinion, Ive gone through Magni and Prlexus last January but end up giving both a miss. From quantitative point of view, both companies would be "B+". When it comes to corporate governance and disclosure, Prlexus would be a "D" and Magni an "E". Prlexus fair better in management discussion and analysis but most information are general numbers like how much revenue/earnings changes, nothing about the business. Magni even worse, statement seems to be copy and paste every year which is less than 3 sentences.

As for the TP, I think assigning the optimistic scenario PE of 10 is abit too optimistic given that historical record has shown that Prlexus has always been valued at PE6-7 level, a PE of 8 in one year would be realistic, a 10 would require a huge shift in investors' expectation towards the company. Although in saying that, doesn't mean it is not undervalued.

If consider PE of 10 as the fair price to pay for it's NTA. And consider that the ROE of 20-22% is sustainable, NTA 0.86 x ROE 20-22 = RM1.70-1.90 would be a fair price. Returns come from = PE Expansion + Assets/Earning appreciation + Dividend increase. The hardest of all 3 to estimate is PE expansion, although earnings estimate are already a challenge, thats why even analysts misses their estimates, and consider that we human is always over confident in our judgement, a 15% discount to your own TP make sense. Last thing, considering that during the bullish cycle of 2009-2013, Prlexus PE barely changed considered it's solid growth record over the years, so what is the probability that the PE will notch up by 3 in 2015, and if your 50% growth estimate is accurate?

Lastly, the reason i gave both a miss because I have no idea about their competitive advantage, although ROE number does indicate there is one. How does Nike choose manufacturers, how long are their contracts, how/who are the competitions/tors? Is it on price, quality? etc. And of course because I dont have these information, my margin of safety has to increase to offset those unknown risk. Thus I give them a pass.

one weird scenario is that if Wellcall can generate such a high ROE, it doesnt make sense to have such a high payout ratio, even if lowering payout to say 50% while delivering ROE of >20% is still consider a more strategic move.

PE 12 from the paper seems okay but FY2013 results has already been distorted, the E has been supported by fair value gain, 40-50% of it, without fair value gain earnings would be less by half, that means the PE should be above 20 now.

When i bought it right after general election, which is at $1.97. A price which i consider as undervalued in relative to it's intrinsic value back then, that was the right time to buy back shares. Now trading at current price, 2.16x NTA, it isn't exactly undervalued but more like fair to overvalued, and you are urging management to share buyback? You do know buying back shares when the price is above intrinsic value destroy value right, you the shareholders are the ultimate loser.

Very happy none of the stocks in my portfolio is on their list lol

so many gamblers here

Mission for fast money making - no thanks lol

lol ok i wish i can ask Mark, alright so ure talking from your experience, i cant comment much on your experience

Hm since u say im so naive to believe, that means u dont have evidence to proof it is the management and CEO that dump the shares that caused the drop today? or the speculators? Or maybe everytime the share drop you will come and laugh at me ?

FA include biscuit balance between crunchiness and chewiness; aftertaste; cholesterol & sugar level; biscuit per fullness (the more a person can consume without feeling full, the better) etc

Maybe im the only person that thinks Hapseng fundamental is not as good as many people though, I bought it around June 2013 and dispose all of it around mid this year. FY2014 profit hit record high mainly due to fair value gain, strip off that, core profit would have fallen by close to 40-50% of FY2013 level. Also the increase risk concentration of relying on property sector to support the group's earning. Hapseng is relatively new to property development, but property division already contribute almost 60%+ of earnings. Other division such as Automobiles selling Mercedes, fertilizer, quarry are either flat or down in 2014, exception being plantation, but from the long term, it seems like property is the only division that can support this growth. I am not denying who knows they can do really well in property, but the risk is crystal clear.

Goreng as in you mean pump and dump right? I am sure if someone says the major shareholders are buying, then thats probably true, which will push up the price, but i dont think their motive is to push up the price in order to dump, it just doesnt align with their character and personality. It is like vegetarian suddenly becoming full time meat eater.

Reread up there. Common sense, if Mark Change CEO and founder, and other long time management personnel are the kind of people that will goreng the share just for quick profit, there will be no Jobstreet as it is today. These people are motivated to build empire and change the world, not making some quick dirty profit. Same goes for founders in PBB, Sunway, Genting, you name it, how long did they hold their shares? they would not have such success if they focus their valuable time in making quick profit. Who makes quick profit? Sumatec, IRCB etc, thats why their companies are garbage.

Dont be foolish to think the directors are goreng ing the shares.

Mark Chang is an entrepreneur that build Jobstreet into it's current size over an decade. Is it his or anyone in the management level's incentive to goreng share price? Any director or majority that goreng their own share price are almost always those that fail in their business.

The fair price for it is NTA price or lower. End of story.

Lets get this straight, NTA is around $0.36, and that include Jobst buildings, stakes in shares in Singapore, Taiwan etc companies. That means the NTA is basically dependent on the share price of those companies. How long will Jobstreet find another business to invest or acquire? No one knows. During this period, how many cash inflow outflow? Perhaps not much. Unless there are existing assets that require high maintenance capex. Put it together, people just like to gamble and goreng penny stocks.

I own jobst shares, but are ppl on drugs? Fundamental not bad?

So hardsell

Long term investing of course applies to emerging market. The only difference is that developed market is more efficient and perhaps less mispriced stocks during normal economic cycle compare to emerging. Emerging market will be less efficient and has more mispriced stocks, in saying that, less efficient also might means it takes longer for stocks to reflect the underlying economic of the business. But then again, long term investing still works. Imagine cold eye has been investing since 70-80s, back then malaysia share market is many more times more ulu then now, yet his annual compound rate is still very satisfactory and i think that is a very important indication that long term investing of buying business for less than it's worth is still alive.

lai liao, waiting for 11

With a company this small, generating 5mil FCF from friction materials, let's says they took all 5mil into expanding future landbank, leaving no maintenance capex to friction materials, how big a land can you buy with 5mil these days? not including development cost, it is just a matter of time they will start use up all the net cash and increase borrowing.

Was looking at bone's july recommendation, where is he now? lol.

Using relative PE comparison is like using Yahoo PE of 100 as example during peak of dotcom bubble to justify another company is 'conservative' with PE 50 of estimation just because both are in similar business

18x isnt conservative. If you mean 'conservative', that means PE 10x and 50% discount from there. Company like IFCA without track record is consider to be fairly valued to me even by using 10x of past earnings.

So when Harta, Kossan, Topglove, Supermax, Careplus all looks like winner, who is the loser? lol

Isn't CCS is waiting for Seek to dispose one of their aggregator before making decision

2.82 is actually overvalued if you look at 1.99x to book value, similar ROE compare to other banks with lower book value multiples.

@bodohjim I dont see why it is not possible for developers to drop price. You are talking about cash rich developers, in that case yes, dropping price is the final option.

But if there is a develop that has high gearing and low in cash, if he is desperate to have cash to pay for interest expense, dropping price is what he will do, just like small developers in China.

ok fair enough, then ask you again, how much do you think Scientex should worth now? Not talking about 2015 because that involve forecast, I mean as of today, what is the right price?

Since you mention you will still buy at RM12, I assume your answer will be RM12 and above?

So KClow, ask you, if Scientex reaches RM12 before 31 Dec 2014, would you buy more?

Oh also, Im happy when scientex goes up. But I am super excited and high when it drops

Maybe I do. We all have different opinion, I know how much Scientex, a business as a whole should worth, I am not going to chase a stock based on sentiment. Even though Scientex is the best stock in my portfolio currently, I bought it at RM2.47 in SEPT 2012, I never once sold it.

I have Aeoncr in my portfolio too at RM15.30 and I am not overly concerned with it's prospect in the long term.

When DKSH was a penny stock few years back and within a span of 2-3 years breaching RM6-7 heading nowhere but up, many investors can't see it going anywhere but towards RM10 by end of this year, then DKSH reaches RM8 and started heading to RM6+ now.

My opinion is that Scientex at current price is fully valued already, it would not be a great idea to buy on over bullish sentiment.

When everyone is very bullish on a company, we have to be more cautious.

Nothing against UncleZ or his stock performance because I don't know much about him. But the author trying to compare these to Warren Buffett performance is full of flaw.

1.Your stimulation of UncleZ one year performance vs Warren Buffett one year - for sure many people can beat Buffett given the size of both portfolio are night and day

2. Your stimulation of UncleZ one year performance vs Warren Buffett 10,20 years - again is flaw too.

I own it, but not overly optimistic on the Laos project given so many obstacle ahead, but still consider it undervalued excluding the Laos project.

Pulls out all the stocks listed in KLSE..

Filter companies:
1. Trading below NTA & price under RM1
2. Venturing into some new industries to 'diversify' income
3. Mingle with some big names in business/politics
4. Some exciting news brewing lately
5. Previously not written by Bone yet

There you have, a list of companies Bone will write about next.

Not sure about Adelaide, but Sydney you can't find 200k units or houses anymore, i mean standard ones not those studio or one bedroom type. At least around 400k and above, about an hour away from city.

Personally I think salary is more or less the same, excluding forex. The difference is in living expenses like Harry mentioned the vehicle price. And public transport here is pretty robust, you can go anywhere without a car. And then the food cost, AUD2.5 per kg of Apples here vs RM2.5 an Apple each in Msia. Even banana here is cheaper. So it makes a lot of difference when you can save a lot more money.

No 5 - Joke of the day

Let's hope when Calvin reaches Mars, he can see so clearly that BJCORP is actually worth more than Alibaba + Berkshire Hathaway.

Not to worry but of course don't ignore what is happening. I bought it at 15.30 back in June because I think paying 10-11x for a great management/company is a fair price considering the profit margin and ROE, compare to paying 20-30x for a plantation company.

Although financial/banking companies are harder to measure the quality of their assets, just like banks in US before GFC, probably hard to know which bank has 'toxic derivatives' and how much in their balance sheet. That's why still have to keep an eye on the NPL ratio. But until there is more indication that something is very wrong and needed correction, in the long run, Aeon Credit will still perform well and has plenty of room to grow in Malaysia given their small market cap compare to others like MBSB or banks.

Does anyone know why Rev still need to organize a EGM when the major shareholders already have the controlling stakes to make the disposal decision?

looking at ppl above talking about getting stuck at glotec and ifca, that serve you right for speculating, and asking Bones to write to help you get out shows how low you are, because that essentially mean you are willing to let someone else get stuck at it. But doesn't really matter, this will not be the last time for you to get stuck. The market will make you pay again and again.

Leno will be happy lol

No 1 to 3 are the same.

When a company price dropped after the purchase, you should reevaluate your buying decision and examine if the business has fundamentally changed, if nothing has changed, there is no worry to sell it out just because other sellers are foolish. In saying that, always buy with margin of safety so if the fundamental has changed, you don't lose that much.

Blue chip stocks are the same, you only buy when the price is cheap or fair value. Again, blue chip you don't wanna expect to make 100-200% in 2-3 years but more like 10-25% each year. I don't see why buying blue chip stocks can be long neck, as long the business is doing well. The only target price/take profit price for all stocks are when the price is way overvalued.

For No 4, estimation is always a good start but i don't see the point of projecting to 10 years or above because no one can estimate that accurately unless the business is so boring and stable. However quantitative estimation should always accompanied by qualitative estimation. The more you understand a business, the more accurate your quantitative estimation will be, and also more conservative.

I like to think I am a long-term investor, because truth be told, I don't think I can be a short term investor, I am not that smart. You see short term investor needs a lot of luck to succeed. Why?

Short Term trader, 2 things where the odds are against them. 1. Transaction fees 2. Player vs House

1. Many short term trader ignore buy and sell transaction fees as long they are making a profit, the fees are negligible. That can be true if you are going to invest just one year, if you going to invest for the next 10-20 years, given that if both of us have the same level of skills and luck, you will not beat a buy and hold investor, period.

2. Short term trading is very close to gambling in the casino, you are the player, the market is the casino. Regression towards the mean, the odds are staked against you over the long term to beat the house. There is always the exception, just like there are the few that successfully make money from horse betting. Those are the ones that are disciplined enough to only make the swing when necessary. If you have such a discipline, then maybe you can make money in the long term.

However did you notice the conflicting thing? If you have the discipline to make very few investment, you wouldn't have become a short term trader in the first place. The very reason that everyone becomes a short term traders is because they believe frequent trading can make more money than just buy and hold method.

Excerpt from Art of Stock Picking by Charlie Munger:

"I think the goal of amateurs who are starting out, especially if they have a small portfolio, should be to learn how to invest successfully, and not how to make money.....And the o­ne thing that all those winning betters in the whole history of people who've beaten the pari-mutuel system have is quite simple. They bet very seldom.

It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it ‑ who look and sift the world for a mispriced be that they can occasionally find o­ne.

And the wise o­nes bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple."

erm need some correction here, HKSE does not allow Alibaba to list in HK because of their unique corporate structure of some listed entity in cayman island, however NYSE doesn't have that requirement therefore they are allow to listed there, which is also why many articles are written to warn investors about investing in Alibaba due to the unique corporate structure

After reading the write up from felicity, im abit concerned if REV is able to dispose all the stakes. Probably should have waited for a solid confirmation. I was under the impression that REV would not have any problem in selling their stakes.

Maybe you are genuine in sharing what you know. But a stock that rise 30% in 2 months doesn't really mean it is your 'real' capability or is it just the rising tide of bull market. Your ability will only be vindicated in 3-5 years.

'Diversification into the Renewable Energy Sector' - Is this like a trend? Companies love to use this phrase to create excitement, like diversify into oil & gas, diversify into property, now the trend is diversify into power or renewable energy. Sounds more like 'diworseification' to me.

Land passenger transport and bus services sounds recurring enough in nature, if they can't do a great job and decide to move into energy which they dont have expertise, nothing will change.