I buy and hold my shares for an extended period. I have held some counters for over 15 years, although nowadays, (as i have become more active), i now normally look at a 3-5 year horizon.
I am a bottom feeder. I will only look at shares when i think the market is dropping and the shares are near their 52 week lows and if an opportunity presents itself, i will buy in. Please note, that i do extensive research and make sure that those counters are ones that i will be comfortable holding for a long period. I don't listen to rumors nor do i play "active" counters. I also only trade on a cash basis.
I do not trade on a daily basis and have ever not even looked at the stock market for more than a year.
The majority of the shares i own are blue chips or dividend paying stocks, although, i do hold a few "speculative" counters.
Have i made lost money? Yes! Have i made money? Yes!
Everyone has their own strategy for investing. No one is right or wrong.
We all reap the benefits, or suffer the consequences, of our own decisions!
When a company price dropped after the purchase, you should reevaluate your buying decision and examine if the business has fundamentally changed, if nothing has changed, there is no worry to sell it out just because other sellers are foolish. In saying that, always buy with margin of safety so if the fundamental has changed, you don't lose that much.
Blue chip stocks are the same, you only buy when the price is cheap or fair value. Again, blue chip you don't wanna expect to make 100-200% in 2-3 years but more like 10-25% each year. I don't see why buying blue chip stocks can be long neck, as long the business is doing well. The only target price/take profit price for all stocks are when the price is way overvalued.
For No 4, estimation is always a good start but i don't see the point of projecting to 10 years or above because no one can estimate that accurately unless the business is so boring and stable. However quantitative estimation should always accompanied by qualitative estimation. The more you understand a business, the more accurate your quantitative estimation will be, and also more conservative.
I like to think I am a long-term investor, because truth be told, I don't think I can be a short term investor, I am not that smart. You see short term investor needs a lot of luck to succeed. Why?
Short Term trader, 2 things where the odds are against them. 1. Transaction fees 2. Player vs House
1. Many short term trader ignore buy and sell transaction fees as long they are making a profit, the fees are negligible. That can be true if you are going to invest just one year, if you going to invest for the next 10-20 years, given that if both of us have the same level of skills and luck, you will not beat a buy and hold investor, period.
2. Short term trading is very close to gambling in the casino, you are the player, the market is the casino. Regression towards the mean, the odds are staked against you over the long term to beat the house. There is always the exception, just like there are the few that successfully make money from horse betting. Those are the ones that are disciplined enough to only make the swing when necessary. If you have such a discipline, then maybe you can make money in the long term.
However did you notice the conflicting thing? If you have the discipline to make very few investment, you wouldn't have become a short term trader in the first place. The very reason that everyone becomes a short term traders is because they believe frequent trading can make more money than just buy and hold method.
Excerpt from Art of Stock Picking by Charlie Munger:
"I think the goal of amateurs who are starting out, especially if they have a small portfolio, should be to learn how to invest successfully, and not how to make money.....And the one thing that all those winning betters in the whole history of people who've beaten the pari-mutuel system have is quite simple. They bet very seldom.
It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it ‑ who look and sift the world for a mispriced be that they can occasionally find one.
And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple."
Buy at low tide when almost everyone is negative or too scared to buy Sell at high tide when everyone wants to buy Just focus buying on turnaround stocks or stocks with price way below NTA, cash backing per share but buy at low tide prices as low tide price gives you the highest margin of safety.
Everyone is long term investor. Even contra player can call themself long term investor. So long as you are happy and that matters. You can call yourself the most clever investor as long as your are happy.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
carries
117 posts
Posted by carries > 2014-09-21 11:57 | Report Abuse
I am a long term investor.
I buy and hold my shares for an extended period. I have held some counters for over 15 years, although nowadays, (as i have become more active), i now normally look at a 3-5 year horizon.
I am a bottom feeder.
I will only look at shares when i think the market is dropping and the shares are near their 52 week lows and if an opportunity presents itself, i will buy in.
Please note, that i do extensive research and make sure that those counters are ones that i will be comfortable holding for a long period.
I don't listen to rumors nor do i play "active" counters.
I also only trade on a cash basis.
I do not trade on a daily basis and have ever not even looked at the stock market for more than a year.
The majority of the shares i own are blue chips or dividend paying stocks, although, i do hold a few "speculative" counters.
Have i made lost money? Yes!
Have i made money? Yes!
Everyone has their own strategy for investing.
No one is right or wrong.
We all reap the benefits, or suffer the consequences, of our own decisions!