https://www.facebook.com/notes/malaysia-contrarian-investing/capital-cycle-why-the-glove-industry-is-unlikely-to-repeat-its-past-performance/1730735383848020

You must understand the underlying economics before you think following EPF is totally correct.

If you think EPF won't be wrong, then I tell you , EPF is invested in an array of fund, and their profit is derived from the total profit minus the loss... this is called diversification.

I'm interested with their next QR . Is the drop justify the QR result ?

profit start to flowing =D

probability, I used to recommend GKENT for it's 5 year earning visibility + 50% dividend payout, but at current price, I think the MOS is become thinner already, hence I'm not recommending it anymore.

UOADEV was my case study 3 years ago. Looking back at UOADEV, it shows FCF, EPS is able to sustain. You can try to look into UOADEV.

PERSTIM is mentioned by our Star sifu - kcchongnz.

HUAYANG investor please take note. The previous Busy Weekly reported Huayang had adjusted their minimum dividend payout rate to conserve cash.

MAGNUM and BJTOTO and STAR ... people do like them for dividend, but to me it's sunset industry.

I might be wrong, and any company I mentioned is NOT a recommendation to BUY or SELL. Thank you.

UCHITEC was the best example for your method. The FCF is superb, the dividend payout ratio is sustainable, and the EPS is sustainable - for currently.

One of the thing that you missed out is the FCF generation power and sustainability.

Some company, like previously MAXIS declared 40cent dividend per year, by taking loan.

So we still need to check their FCF, profit sustainability to ensure that the dividend will continue flow back to investors.

While you are still insist on your NPV SOP and discount ratio, the faithful investor already earned their money, or at least gained advantage in investing with paper profit.

while Philipine radical government might restrict gambling industry, don't forget about the lucrative taxation that contribute to their coffers.

ps. I'm just an noobie passing by to talk big xD

It doesn't harm me. But it might be an eye-sore to others.

Icon, just give up on paperplane.
I still remember he doubt GKENT when I'm writing and putting valuation on GKENT.

pisanggoreng, maybe out of topic from GADANG, can I learn from you how to identify and value a palm oil company =D . I am keen to learn to value plantation sector.

Hi, pisanggoreng, I had performed initial position sizing on GADANG.
Thank you.

CFT

take a glance of EPS, growth rate. I don't think it deserve such valuation.

I couldn't brain the logic behind, with increasing profit and arithmetic increament of 1c per share dividend per year, why it is heading south ?

pisanggoreng, I read the segment @ latest QR, B7 part. Turned out the info is the 2014 PP.

GaRRY, i thought that all the private placement is almost fully utilized in their utility sector and plantation ?

Thank you for all the information. =D

yeekarwai88 bro, you have a good taste in choosing investment material =D

bluefun, at least what you talk is backed up by facts and figures.

and of course, I had read what Icon Sifu's blog. I'm just demand for more info to process what's the value of GADANG. If someone can give me additional info, I can process it and share to all GADANG fellow investor here.

AmberChia, maomaochong, please enlighten me with more information.
什么是 omission 或 addition vo。 请多多指教。

bluefun, you are the only people whom can provide a better information than other people.

Do you have any information about their sales , timeframe and guidance of the project that you mentioned before ? [ the one that you mentioned : Johor "Capital city:, Cyberjaya "The Vyne", RAPID, Semenyih "Selangorku" )

I can tell you that I have no position in GADANG and I'm attracted to it by it's low valuation by watching at PE ratio and so on.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to shoot GADANG down for me to collect or some other bad intention.

My intention is to ask the forum participant for more information so that I can understand the current condition of GADANG.

pisanggoreng, it's not about Growth and Dividend that matters in construction company. Yes, of course that growth and dividend is important, but it's the orderbook that gives us hindsight about their potential sustainability for Growth and Dividend payout.

It's the construction orderbook, the profit margin, the cost control that values a construction company.

A company with annual revenue 400m but with 200m orderbook will hit dry spell in 1/2 years, if they are unable to secure new contract, ceteris paribus.

pisanggoreng, if base on my ciplak valuation, the burn rate only can sustain GADANG construction business for another 1.5 years , after declaring this QR @ this month....

To me, they deserve such valuation ... until they grab further contract.

Any track record that proves GADANG will take a piece of action of MRT jobs ?

Please do update me after you gentlemen/ladies attend the AGM...

I notice that GADANG might hit dry spell @ their orderbook during next year ....


Quote from my fb group,
Hmmm.. with the current burn rate of 123m construction revenue per quarter, and 47m properties billing per quarter....

Construction orderbook only can sustain 7 quarters (1.75y) , and property can sustain 5 quarters (1.25y) ...

Please note that my quarter mentioned above will start with 1st quarter from this month QR release....

Just my past experience advice.
Do not touch Desmond Lim counter.

I saw Franklin Resources, Inc. emerged as substantial shareholder.

the company is spearheaded by Mark Mobius, no ?

The Construction Division’s outstanding order book value stands at RM889.48 million and Property
Division’s unbilled sales is RM243.49 million.

Any further update on the profit guidance by the management ?

Fong Sai Lang LOL .. Sai Lang is 'all in' in chinese

RM 1.98, in chinese , 一久发(Huat Long Long Time)

Mr. Market is rewarding all those faithful shareholder.

Point to watch : EG new plant at Sungai Petani will be complete erected during 2nd half of 2016.
The next Quarter Report shall reporting a minimal growth, with the subsequent QR reporting the growth derived from the new plant.

stockmanmy , if you have a better method to calculate the intrinsic value of GKENT, I hope you can do so, to enlighten our view. I'll be grateful to learn another method of valuation or projection.

Otherwise, you are just talking empty.

Thank you,
CFT

Quote my sifu,
FA, TA, ZA, PA, CA, CFA, anything A that can't help you earn money is useless..

stockmanny,

As I stated again, even we don't value GKENT via PE ratio, to me it's a high probability win bet.

The contribution of LRT3 alone is already 91c profit per share, base on 6% PDP fees, 5 years time horizon, and 4.5billion worth of contract.

GKENT has a NET cash balance of 223.05m , which translated into 74.35c per share.

Add both of them (LRT3 value + Net Cash) , will net you RM 1.6535

By using the latest share price of RM 1.93, you are buying the water metering division and Hospital building profit and GKENT's future potential orderbook (exclude LRT3) for a price of 28c per share.

Note (1)
Water Metering Division
Base on last annual segmental profit of RM 23.57m, it translate into 7.85c per share.

Note (2)
I am lazy to calculate the profit contribution of hospital building project.

Note (3)
Assumption of
- Water Metering Division profit can sustain
- Zero contribution from hospital building
- No future orderbook is obtained

base on 28c price, Watering division will yield a PE of 3.566.

Conclusion :
If GKENT is unable to secure another contract as what you stated, I still think it is a good bet...

Disclaimer :
I do have position in GKENT, hence my POV might be biased. I welcome anyone to provide constructive view for GKENT for learning purposes.

Thank you,
CFT

new high.

The prospect there is way toooooooo long until I have no idea which point they are stressing about...

Ermm.. I need a more in-depth analysis for revenue breakdown, CF, Assets analysis (what is their intangible asset and why they keep on growing in such pace ?) , and so on...

Anyone can enlighten to share their view on this CYPARK ? Why equity base keep on enlarging together with intangible assets ??

stockmanmy, by using LRT3 alone, the net profit will be 91c per share, contributing for 5 years.
You haven't considered in the current asset of GKENT yet.

This quarter suffered 1.08m forex loss .

EPS 5.00 vs EPS 3.30 Compare y-o-y
52% increase in profit.

Read the "railway" theme for mid-term , by Focus Malaysia. =D

When people tell you that Brexit will cause minimal impact on Malaysia, tell them it's bullshit.

If you think Malaysia is not heavily invested in UK, think about Battersea project that EPF, Sime Darby, and SP Setia...

no need to post his article. His article is non-sense.

C'mon GKENT, lets break the 188 (one huat huat) resistant !

This counter is a typical Diam-diam ubi berisi counter...

This one looks like a gem.

Aiyo ... MIDF , this is the joke of the day ...

reiki, for the moment I don't think the company is fit for declaring dividend...

It contrast with the fact that they just raised the money from Right's ...

Wow, and with the information of AR i received which state that the work progress of LRT3 started and sailed smoothly, 2017 shall be a very prosperous year for GKENT.

what can you do ?
You can't even do a hostile takeover because they have tight controlling stake.

just dump this kind of management stock.

Nope.
Ah Jib can play Malaysian' backside only.

He knew that China has a lot of stake in Malaysia already.
If he play foul once, he will never get funding from China anymore.
Think about EDRA, 1MDB, China is the one who busy bailing him out.