aiyo this share doesn't have much fluctuation lah .. contra not worth eh...

Rally on Gkent, soldiers ! Take down the wall of Resistant !!

Chin Well (MYR1.67): Anti-dumping repealing to affect ~10%
We attended Chin Well’s 2QFY6/16 result and corporate update briefing today. The repealing of anti-dumping law in EU for fasteners from China (effective 26-Feb) may not be as bad as it seems.

In terms of numbers, only its bulk sales of bolts may be affected, which makes up 20% of EU sales, i.e. MYR56m (~11% of FY15 revenue). In the likely scenario of margin compression due to the need to match China’s pricing, management has guided for single digit margins. This division is enjoying ~15% PBT currently. If this halves to 7.5%, the estimated PBT reduction is MYR4.2m, i.e. less than 10% of FY15 PBT.

We also find comfort in (1) China’s labour cost increase; (2) part of the repealing involved a promise of being more environmentally friendly, lowering CO2 emissions and proper waste water treatment (Chin Well pays MYR0.6-0.7m every month); (3) China’s promise to cut 15% output over five years; (4) Failure of China manufacturers to stock up on wire-rod which saw prices shoot up 30% since January; (5) perception of inferior quality of China products; (6) most customers would source from various countries (as per past practice) for risk and cost hedging.

It is hard for China to penetrate the DIY market as it is labour intensive and there is usually a 1-year customer audit period. Cost wise, environmental cost increase could mean a levelled playing field for others vs China by 2020. Lastly, there will also be a time-lag of at least a few months before China’s threat materialises, due to the above mentioned factors.

Having said so, the fact is everyone is holding back big/bulk orders awaiting China players' pricing. Chin Well has only received small urgent orders during this period.

Whilst it will be hard for Chin Well to repeat its 1HFY6/16 PATMI growth of 113% with the expected headwinds, management has shared two expansion plans.

It intends to invest ~USD400k for a gabion machine end-2016. Currently, its gabion and fences capacity are fully utilised. In 2Q, wire product revenue jumped 28.2% YoY as it secured more new projects in Malaysia and began regular supplies overseas.

Chin Well is also looking to set up a recurring source of income. It has commenced construction of a new automatic warehouse in Port Klang for MYR12.8m, which will complete within 6-9 months. It plans to utilise 30-40% of the space, whilst renting the remaining out for storage of hardware related items. At 80% utilisation, management hopes for ~MYR2m p.a. contribution.

Separately, on the US side, it seems that the worst is over. Orders are coming in, though not consistently and not at previous levels. PrimeSource is Chin Well’s only customer in the US and the supplier of Home Depot. The PrimeSource takeover resulted in inventory rationalisation and order halts (due to over stocking previously) which affected Chin Well significantly.

The group’s balance sheet remains solid. It currently has a net-cash position of MYR71.4m.

As its stellar performance is not expected to continue into the 2H, we look at its 12M trailing EPS of 20.7sen (vs. annualised 1H EPS of 24.6sen). The stock is trading at 8.1x trailing EPS, which is below its 3-year historical average PER of 11.4x.

no, i'm not talking about share price.
I'm not big boys either, so I don't know the fluctuation of CHINWEL price.

I'm talking about fundamental changes...
Things change. Effective from 26 Febuary, they scrap the policy already, and you state it as advantage is a big wrong information.

Do anyone consider the 1st comment I bring it up ?
Today during the analyst briefing, MAYBANK had told us that due to scrap of anti-dumping policy, their fastener profit margin will shrunk to single digit.

This is the guidance given by their management.

i repeat again, anyone with capex guidance here ?

and Hi, please be informed that the order had being held back as the purchaser is waiting for the price from Chinwel's competitor , which is China ...

Hi. Please be informed that the European had scrap the anti-dumping tax of China ... ...

Hmm... they have no email for IR, so I contact them via Fb... but till date... no reply from them..

damn Sienzz.. 1day after i in, drop pulak .. knn...

hmm... I'm having a hard time to read Insurance company balance sheet, cashflow etc etc...
it's ... different...

CFT reporting in ...

Did anyone have information of capex guidance on OCK for the Myanmar and their expansion plan ?

it's a 0.6c , not 6c.

let me send an email to KAWAN IR to inquire about some information

looks like a lot of fella getting conned by the operator lulz....

omgimnoob, your perspective is as an business owner.

My perspective , is from small time investor.

I notice a guy who open a shop.
I was offered by the guy to participate in a business.
Each share yields 7.45c , 8.86c and 12.45c for year 2013, 14, 15.

I was offered to buy at inflated price of 21x PER during that period.
Why 21x PER?
The guy paints a good picture, by telling you that factory 3 is in the making, track record and so on.

One of the wordplay.
If you see 謹慎樂觀 or cautiously optimistic, you can equal it with bullshit.

There is nothing call cautiously optimistic.

To me, as long it can sustain demand , and once the new factory finishes at March 16, if KAWAN able to pushes demand to new high, it will be another good growth story to realize.

the forex loss was an unrealized loss thou.

funda, how you interpret ?

Cheers for kawan-kawan sekalian.
The result proves that organic growth continues.

KAWAN Financial year end net profit 32.027 million (increased 53.03%)
EPS 3.55 vs EPS 3.06 , YoY basis

yes, I'm in KAWAN also ... in fact, KAWAN and WELLCAL used to have an equivalent weightage in my portfolio (but not now anymore for WELLCAL)

aiyo ... now fall into low liquidity trading band ...
Till now liao , zero volume traded...

today is the judgement day .. Ang Kong popi popi popi please let all the kawan-kawan huat chai .

sahrin, if I am not mistaken （sorry for the wrong info, If any ), air and waste command the largest revenue, followed by gas and welding and O&G.

If not mistaken, O&G got a share of 25% , but a higher profit margin.
And due to latest automation and reduction of labour dependency, the profit margin changed again.

So revenue high doesn't equal to high profit , vice versa.

Sorry Kok Leong Chan, I'm a simple investor. I don't buy in hope of recovery.
I buy base on my entry reason.
I exit if the entry reason is gone.

The entry reason is due to Factory 3 and improving dividend.

Very sorry to tell that I lead the friends in WELLCAL to Holland....
it's my mistake.

I was expecting the improvement of the revenue and profit from WELLCALL since the commencement of Factory 3 last year.
In fact, I had a bullish bias since I have exposure to WELLCAL.

The fact is, the demand/orderbook is reduced due to economic slowdown...

____________________________________

Some information I asked my friend to obtain from AGM of WELLCAL.

1. It takes 1 to 2 years to achieve 80% commission rate of Factory 3 .
2. Factory 3 produces / improves 70% of the capacity of WELLCAL.
3. Currently, WELLCAL boss revealed that the strategy will be preparing Factory 3 first, and when O&G sector revive, then the Factory 3 will be used to generate revenue.

Moral of Story : Industry Hose is cyclical ...
I will revisit WELLCAL once the industrial sector improves again..
Factory 3 should be a super revenue boost for WELLCAL during that period.

Sincerely,
CFTrader

Hontoni Sumimasen desu.... (Really Sorry)

Sigh ... no one ... no one provide analysis of this counter information...
really info-less and pathetic thread.

I will just look at the recent corporate exercise and his reaction towards the XINQUAN to gauge his latest "confidence level" of holding XINQUAN.

Renounceable rights issue of up to 253,547,250 new ordinary shares of US$0.01 each in Xingquan (Xingquan Share(s)) (Rights Share(s)) at an issue price of RM0.30 per Rights Share on the basis of one (1) Rights Share for every two (2) Xingquan Shares held, together with up to 84,515,750 free detachable new warrants (Warrant(s) B), on the basis of one (1) Warrant B for every three (3) Rights Shares subscribed as at 5.00 p.m. on 8 March 2016

Sep 21, 2014 12:39 AM
Pika Chan . reporting in =D

_______________________________
Posted by CFTrader
have bought since the 48c, will keep on adding on deep, until reach 2020 (when the first phase expansion done)... Achieve 2020 dream ...

_______________________________
Posted by CFTrader > Feb 10, 2015 01:49 PM | Report Abuse X

buy, keep into fridge or safebox, and wait until 2022 where all the acquisition, expansion and all the growth factor comes in.

Then you will have option to sell to EPF for a price of RM 4.80.

____________________________________________________

1 year and 5 month already passed... still have 6 years to go....

Where is the growth of the LED and Automotive segment ?
Cb Mr. Sia ...

Marked as "sorhai management prospect" list ...
cock only.
don't say I don't give time, I give 2 quarter already.

still waiting for the PP fella ....

R.I.P. MMSV ....

I just want to ask .
HOW CAN YOU EARN MONEY BY GETTING MARGIN CALL ?

It doesn't make sense right ?

Okay, lets say,
if someone buy at 1.50, and the share price increase, they get a bigger collateral amount. And they keep buying.
The average acquisition price of share increases.

And when you get margin call, you had to sell some of your holdings and you claim it's taking profit action.

First, usually a person's position won't have any profit left if they get a margin call.

Second, if you still have profit to take at a certain position during margin call , it means that "another" position which is badly performed causing the drop in portfolio value.

Example , buying A @ 1.00, B @ 1.00, and C @ 1.00 ,
When margin call , A is priced at 1.30, B at 1.00, C at 0.30

To reduce collateral, he sold A .... and claim I take my profit ....

Lol, why people still listen to Tan Teng Boo ?
Shine out his portfolio return please.
Go and see his iCap AGM please.

______________
I also can say Fiat money is useless in the long run, because doesn't back by any commodity but confidence of country.
So give me your fiat money.
Theory is nice to hear but not practical.

______________
Like this cock I also know lah.
These ass-sitting anal-y-shit only know talk only.

Note that I only post this report as I comment on this counter.
Please don't ask me to comment on other counter.

It is up to your decision to buy or sell or hold this counter.

But IMHO, it will be a long long investing road , and expect some funding from shareholder due to the nature of capex intensive business.

I had read thru OCK's Financial Statement and did some research on OCK.
The research which I will post at below consist of 2 parts, Fundemendal and Valuation.


To cut short :
My rating will be a : HOLD
The rating of a HOLD is due to poor valuation score.

Fundemendal : 3.5 / 5
- Telco sector increasing capex and backbone infrastructure will be the main growth for OCK.
- Consistent 12 quarter improved profit at a rate of double digit (within 14%)
- The profit is real profit, not due to revaluation or some non-sense purposes.

Valuation : 1.5 / 5
- High capex requirement, which translate into low FCF available.
- The latest Capex was 23m with 20m profit. It's starting to burning into the cash reserve.
- Right issue proves the theory of high capex.
- High capex = low or no dividend , or worse, borrow/loan to pay dividend
- Low of cash = might perform PP.
- Current Cash of 32m minus debts of 72m , you will have a net loan of 40m .
- Long fruit-bearing period . I cant blame OCK for that as it's the nature of business.

With a price of Rm 0.71 and 792.241m share issued , total cap is 562.491m
Warrant will net a 264.08 x RM 0.71 cash = 187.4968m cash at 2020, if we use 5% discount rate , the current value for 146.8m.
Cost of acquisition of warrant is 44.8936m

EV = 562.491 +146.8 - 32 + 72 + 44.8936 = 794.1846m
Very linear calculation of 20m profit for 3 quarter, annualize 26.67m
It is selling at multiple of 29.77x

__________(recommend action) _______
- Rating will be hold/sell until capex is done or significantly reduced to a point.
- The expansion / profit growth rate is a bit slower compared to the burning cash rate.
- I will visit back OCK when the recurring income starts to flow in, (which when the expansion stops and the cash is used to pay debt ， I will enter here , and after debt is cleared, it will be converted into dividend play, like HEVEA )

surprisingly they doesn't use the money to pay debt.
That's some rare case in penny stocks ...

During my first year of investing, I had set this rule in my portfolio.
Don't believe me ? There were tons of example. AAX was the best example

I'm a very simple person.
I'm teaching you a simple way to analyze if a right issue is good or bad.

I see the right issue money going to use to repay loan, I avoid.
I see the IPO money proceed going to use to repay loan, I avoid.
I see any method to ask shareholder's money to repay loan, I avoid.

talk so many useless...
i'm collecting GKENT @ lower area...
this is a win I win big, lose i don't lose much scenario...

i like the word shitting triangle LOL

Those export stocks with increased capacity will still perform well.
Those only depend on the mere forex gain will suffer.

This is informational. Thank you Calvin..

slow and steady bro.
read page 7, the bottom part of the AR and you can celebrate CNY prosperously.
too bad I have not much fund left, or else I would like to accumulate more.

I don't appreciate these kind of article.
These kind of article is beneficial for those whom are still in learning stage to operating the stock.

For most of the investor here doesn't need these kind of article.

Please write about
(1) portfolio management
(2) control Sharpe ratio
(3) position sizing
(4) reducing the average price of your security holding while holding certain security
(5) hedging (note hedging, not punt) against market
(6) and those advanced method.

I put my eyes on this counter.... waiting for suitable time to collect.

btw, recieved my hard copy of wellcal AR. Looks very nice.

do you think traders are interested with 10 sen fluctuation of a Rm 2.70 stock ?
I don't think so ....