Posted by probability > 3 minutes ago | Report Abuse

exactly - keyword: pray that diesel crack wont dip below 12 USD/brl (2017 hurricane harvey peak was 17 USD/brL)

Pray doesnt sound that pessimistic lah...it sounds HOPE....

Finally Probability wakes up to do his daily routine work in I3....

ya ya

I guess most Fund Managers are more dumb than the Sifus in I3....

They dont see the beauty of HY

Posted by BobAxelrod > 32 seconds ago | Report Abuse

No way can anyone compare the cyclical prices for Oil with those of Tin and Palm Oil (artificial and export ban induced)

Mogas 92 leh? Can compare or not?

Will it happen or not?

Let me have a start....I will go Genting today to try my luck...if I kena jackpot of Royal Caribbean today I will go next month. If next month I kena jackpot again I will believe high diesel price to stay forever n I will sialang in HY

Posted by Sslee > 46 seconds ago | Report Abuse

The important thing is by Q4 if HRC cash flow can repay the RM 1.5 billion borrowing and the marked to market derivatives loss is negligible as on 31/12/2022 then most likely the HRC price uptrend can sustain for some time.

Ya ya if only high diesel price becomes a new normal n stay for a long long time (so is Ukraine War) n HY can make EPS RM2 or RM3 every Q for a long long time

Pray 24 hours that it will not plunge like Mogas 92 or Tin or CPO etc etc etc etc

U see, u all engineers very panlai can do a lot of tedious n complicated calculations or profit projections chun chun on Q profit

I read book not much have to try my luck in this shares biz, predicting price movement so as to earn some humble meals (chicken rice etc), if luck is good lah

But why would share price come sdown after an excellent Q result (once in a century excellent results)?

Got the Q profit prediction correct but share price pokxi how?

As for Philip's investment in Harta, he only see it 10 years from now

If say Probability's dreams come true on Q3 profit (EPS RM3.00), u think the price will limit up or jump very high after Q3 result ah?

Must panlai panlai buy low sell high loh

Posted by Sslee > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

At current HRC price a very high/good chance when Q3 and Q4 report come up the price will fly.

The price went limit up fm RM4 to RM6 few days b4 Q2 result, then plunged all the way to RM4.70+ now

Not 1+1 =2 kinder garden maths loh

For speculations, HY is certainly a better play than Petronm

Some choosed not to see

Its all with a reason.....just that some see it earlier some see it now some dont even see it now

Posted by Sslee > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse

I can only say, Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent/rational.

Why glove co traded in low single digit PE with high DY not long ago

If u could figure out why then u could be in the better position to make more money fm stock mkt

Why Steel stocks n Plantation stocks at low single digit PE........

I also wonder why QL valuation is so rich with PE of 40? Tech Stocks at PE 40+

Go see their top 30 shareholders in Annual Report

The main issue is still on Sustainability (bsides China Boss), though yr good friend expected the high diesel prices to stay forever......

The simplest basic form of understanding is to go to your relatives and and friends who own gas stations and talk to them.

Cant compare Apple with Orange i guess. Those gas stations 's profit are fixed,no much of speculation elements, earning few cents per little

Hedging protects an investor's portfolio from loss. However, hedging results in lower returns for investors. Therefore, hedging is not a strategy that should be used to make money but a strategy that should be used to protect against losing money

Grossly over hedging is a gamble
Grossly under hedging is also a gamble

I believe I3lurker suffers huge hedging losses over the years......lol

Wah....a very practical n simply way to explain on hedging.....much more interesting than Probability's 24 hours a day 7 days a week one

But actual scenario may depends on the Co's policy (and their risk appetite/ prediction etc) as well

Posted by Sslee > 20 minutes ago | Report Abuse

Hedging mean on refining margin uptrend your hedging will make a loss but your physical buying of crude and selling refined products making windfall profit due to better refining margin.

On refining margin downtrend your hedging will make a gain but your physical buying of crude and selling refined products making less profit or losses due to poorer refining margin

Theoretically will be plus 1 minus 1....

Hmmm.....i pressume silence means consent fm Robert Prop....

So i will forward his Q3 profit projection to HY for their comment.

Maybe miracle happens leh....I3 then is no longer a toxic place....

It's a place to make dreams happens

Dont forget to thank me later ah Robert

This may scare their shit out......Why this Robert Prop is so so smart, able to predict their Q3 profit chun chun? Hv to get him as our Senior Trading Director yesterday or ASAP

Posted by probability > 37 minutes ago | Report Abuse

you take out dividend, this stock is trading at 4.50 now

It has delivered EPS even better than what was estimated and yet, purely because of wrong perception on the meaning of the two clauses below, market is thinking it will revert back to its earlier earnings.

Cash flow hedge & Cost of hedging reserve

From what i have extracted and studied, these are nothing but the effects of the Refining margin swap contract.

Cash flow hedge (CFH) are basically hedge portions of the RMSC which has been liquidated as of 30th June and awaiting respective physical market transaction to take place to offset these hedging losses.

Whereas, Cost of hedging reserve (COHR) is simply the following:

Forward looking Mark-to-market estimate of the difference between the fixed price and the future spot price multiplied by the notional quantity and discounted back to a present value based on a reasonable discount rate determined by the producer.

Even if we assume the RMSC covers complete Gasoline production capacity of 35% yield x 10.6 million, 3.7 million barrels, you are securing the below gross profit after hedging losses or gain.

= 3.7 million x 12.7 USD/brl x 4.45 ex
= 209 million MYR.....(1)

No matter what the figures are reported on CFH & COHR, they are purely trying to show the ineffectiveness / effectiveness of the hedging but the profit contribution remains the same. (SERIOUSLY, THINK ABOUT THIS)

The CFH shows how much 'opportunity for greater profit than 209 million / per qtr' is confirmed loss while COHR shows potential loss if the scenario prolongs indefinitely for the balance notional value.

For every negative value on CFH & COHR that will take place, there will be equally higher gross profit in future physical market transaction where after deducting the hedging loss anticipated, you will report the same 209 million for gasoline per qtr.


For the balance refined products diesel, jet fuel and others (10.7 - 3.7 = 7 million barrels per qtr) , you have the following:

1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 50.36/bbl
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 38.40/bb
3. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7.77/bbl

Gross refining margin/brl:

= (0.46 x 50.4 ) + (0.07 x 38.40) + (0.12 x 7.77)
= (23.18 + 2.70 + 0.93)/ (0.65)
= US $ 41.2 / brl

Gross Profit :

= (7 million barrel sales per qtr) x ( US $41.2/brl) x (MYR 4.45/USD)
= 1.283 Billion MYR........(2)


Total gross profit after hedging gain / loss: (1) + (2)
= 1.483 Billion MYR

EPS will be exceeding RM 3 per QTR

The above is what we will obtain going forward if the Diesel & Jet Fuel margins are stable around there. The hedging losses reported on page 8 (438 million) are the effects of monthly hedging of Diesel & Jet fuel as all refinery does and this expected to become zero as crack spread stabilizes from month to month.

Can i send the above masterpiece of yr Q3 profit projection to HY ?

If u r ok I will send......Under Robert Prop ok ah?

Then wait patiently for the miracle to happen

Dont be shy....

If u really too shy to do so I will help u to send to them

Shall I create a gmail ac under Robert Prop?

Posted by Sslee > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

CharelesT,
If probability Q3 and Q4 projection comethru, the cash flow should able to clear the borrowing of RM 1.5 billion.

The dririvaties liabilities will become negligible. Then HRC price will fly.


If I kena supreme toto 6/58 lottery tonight I will never ever come to I3 such a toxic place

The very first question here is....

Why do u waste yr time n energy to post yr Q profit projections 24 hours a day 7 days a week, for the past 3 months?

If something happens then u will change yr fate n also HY's fate

Who says Hedging profit is not sustainable in commodity biz?

Dont be shy....hiong hiong press the buttons....if nothing happens nothing to lose also

Email address : HRCPD-Corporate-Affairs@hrc.com.my

U know the right thing to do.........

What for to waste yr time here to entertain n to explain to those who dont believe in u?

If u did the same thing 1000 times here and yet U still cant see the results will u try for another 1000 times again here?

Just click n send yr profit projections on Q2 n Q3 to them........can be done in few seconds

Good horse must also find good owners....as per Chinese Proverbs

If not then better think out of the box

Email address : HRCPD-Corporate-Affairs@hrc.com.my

This small gesture of u may make big things to happen n dreams come true

Instead of posting yr profit projections 24 hours a day 7 days a week here since the past 2 to 3 months.....

Anything happens?

Price drops fm Rm7 to Rm4+ ah??

Do u happy with this outcomet?

Email address : HRCPD-Corporate-Affairs@hrc.com.my

Lastly, wasting time to talk cock here day n night also useless...nothing will happen eventually

Move the first step,somebody pls forward Probability's profit projections to HY's HR.....

I believe with Probability's brilliant brain, he shall make their hedging gain sustainable in many years to come....

A Robert Kuok 2.0 is finally born in I3...

not everyday also Sunday one

I only wish Glove Theme 2020 type could happen once again in my remaining years

Cukup....I m not as greedy as Probability who wanted to see EPS RM2.00+ for every Q of HY....or at least in another 6 to 8 Qs

Posted by stockraider > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

I ask whether Robert Kuok sustain its profit from operating its sugar business or making money by speculation in sugar future leh ???

This kind of windfall profits may only happens few times in one's life time....U think I can have Glove Theme 2020 every year meh....

U must know how to keep yr wealth... Sifu OTB always buy property fm his profit made fm stock mkt in the past 10 years

He knows the stock mkt/speculative biz well

Posted by probability > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

yes...charlest is slowly opening up..


I open up or not doesnt matter at all

Most importantly is HY Boss will open up n headhunt u for their Senior Trading Director...n becomes another legend liek Robert Kuok....

U should seriously consider to rename yrself as Robert...at least a small start towards Robert Kuok's path