Grossly over hedging or under hedging is like big or small.....casino type

Having said so, Robert Kuok did speculate a lot in sugar commodity biz during his early years n made lots of money

He sustains very well till now

Posted by Sslee > 57 seconds ago | Report Abuse

The only reason I invested in Petronm is Petronm stand for Petron Malaysia Refining & Marketing Bhd. [(Refining + Marketing (petrol stations)] a smaller scale of (HRC + Petdag).

So how should you value Petronm?

Petronm is much more straight fwd lah..they shares their profit by giving good div consistently over the years

Less exposure to casino kind of hedging activities i guess

Hokkien.....not bad words lah

So can make EPS RM2+ in many Qs to come loh...another 6 to 8 Q also no problem loh

Cipai horser liao HY

currently they had hedged 20% of their sales throughput for the next 1.5 years.

So by hedging well on this 20% of their sales can guarantee EPS RM2 for 1.5 years ah?

Posted by probability > 7 seconds ago | Report Abuse

perhaps they indeed already secured the hedging in futures for reasonable notional amount...for next 2 years

thats why they dare to give dividend..who knows...lets see

Maybe more than 2 years leh...5 years? Or even longer? I dont know how long they can hedge lah....as long as possible

Posted by probability > 43 seconds ago | Report Abuse

i never wanted to dividend actually..like i sais this is not the time

but despite that they gave...not knowing that these will not be appreciated by charlest..sad:(

Where got...I cheers for u guys.....even I m not a shareholder of HY

Ya ya a very good Div of RM0.10....even witrh Q2 EPS Rm2.20...

but its a 100% improvement fm 2017 of Rm0.05 ya ya ya

U see we can always discuss under a very friendly manner....no need to curse this curse that pokxi lah jump fm a tall building lah

We are civilised.....

It's a great loss to the co if they dont see yr talent in profit projections

Its too humble of u.....

Posted by probability > 1 minute ago | Report Abuse

profit projection to the same company that delivered it? no need lah

they know very well....already started giving dividend mah

Ya ya a very good Div of RM0.10....even witrh Q2 EPS Rm2.20...

but its a 100% improvement fm 2017 of Rm0.05 ya ya ya

With Probability in the Co, HY can make good hedging profit for a long long time...share prices may touch PE 30 eventually

No more margin call for Probability no more sleepless nights

See.....could be happy ending eventually

If I were HR Manager of HY I will certainly come to headhunt Probability for Senior Trading Director

I need a favour from all of you HY shareholders here, please help me to send all Probability's Q profit projections in I3investor.com.

Email address : HRCPD-Corporate-Affairs@hrc.com.my

they might have the same opinion of experienced charlest which does not want to change..

its a chronic phobia as Probability had mentioned earlier

Posted by probability > 2 minutes ago | Report Abuse

perhaps are not that knowledgeable on refinery industry

Maybe...... so far I think Probability is No1 in this field...

I wouldnt surprise at all if FC or Trading Manager of HY is also quietly learning fm his sharings here

Why IBs never buy cheap PE1+ HY io they buy PE 30+ tech stocks...

Despite Sifu Probability selflessly shares his Q profit projections here 24 hours a day 7 days a week for the past few months

All IBs are blind ah?

Posted by probability > 18 seconds ago | Report Abuse

Why Gasoline margin came down but its not so easy for Diesel?

I wish finally all the big boys like Fund Managers will read n understand n fully agree with yr 24 hours non stop kind sharings here n push HY to PE 30 like tech stocks

Personally I think I3 is very toxic

Why wanna curse people leh? Bad karma...

U see i always give blessings one.....

To Sslee hoping he can recover his losses in stock mkt eventually

To Probability hoping he can make good money fm HY

Despite our differences

What for to curse people leh aiyo

Fm an established Sifu:

qqq3 has lost all his 100k capital.
I think qqq3 will lose until bankrupt.
Lose until bankrupt is too lenient for him.
I wish qqq3 will jump down from a tall building and become a vegetable and suffer for another 20 years before he dies.
I hope my wish will come through.

Another case:
Posted by Philip ( buy what you understand) > 2020-06-07 08:29 | Report Abuse

I'll just wait until your next big loss for you to disappear from i3investor again. Gamblers like you win 200% one day and lose 100% the next.

Usual run of the mill speculators.

But your initial comment that fa people won't buy glove stocks is silly. I did, I have and I have earned more than 16x my money in topglove over the years. You are the one who got lucky kid.

Let's see how you compound that luck when the speculation ends.

Maybe disappear from i3investor for good this time.

Unlike many here, I think I never curse anyone here to lose until pxkai one

Only good wishes so far

Anyway if yr faith are really that strong in HY U should sialang with margin in HY n wait for the day to happen...like what I did in glove during Mid 2020....

Then really horseh liao....I also wish to see you rich one day in the future

In the first place, why would Mogas 92 crack spread plunged fm USD30+ to USD5+ now, within 3 months' time??

Firstly, they sell Mogas 92 high crack spread forever Ukraine War forever......
Second, they sell Diesel high crack spread forever Ukraine War forever....

Now they sell good hedging profit 2 years or could be forever.....

What's next?

Fm FB i came across such incidents, some people kena lotteries very often in their life n they are having a good life now

https://www.ky3.com/2022/08/13/lucky-man-wins-lottery-twice-month/

LUCKY LOTTERY WINNERS... WIN AGAIN! - DocPlayer.net

lucky lottery winners... - The Olive School, Hackney

Real stories or ghost stories I dunno lah

The key word is Sustainability

If u can go to Casino and make money most of time for a long long time, then u can expect HY to make good hedging profit most of time for a long long time too

Fm FB i came across such incidents, some people kena lotteries very often in their life n they are having a good life now

https://www.ky3.com/2022/08/13/lucky-man-wins-lottery-twice-month/

LUCKY LOTTERY WINNERS... WIN AGAIN! - DocPlayer.net

lucky lottery winners... - The Olive School, Hackney

Real stories or ghost stories I dunno lah

The key word is Sustainability

If u can go to Casino and make money most of time for a long long time, then u can expect HY to make good hedging profit most of time for a long long time too

Not very long ago in June 2022 we saw Mogas 92 crack spread was ard USD35+ and many HY n Petronm shareholders predicted it would stay at this high level for a long long time due to the never ending Russia vs Ukraine War. What happens next is Mogas 92 crack spread plunged more than 80% to USD5+ now.....in a short period of 2 months+ time

What's next? Diesel spread expected to stay at high level for a long long time due to the never ending Russia vs Ukraine War?

HY expected to do good hedging profit for a long long time or forever?

Posted by Rabbit2 > 22 hours ago | Report Abuse

Have to admit that both HRC and Petron are cyclical stocks. Just that how long the record quarterly profit could sustain. Everyone have different view.

Ok I will not include Glove this round for my argument as many said glove supply can be increased drastically within a short period of time (China's mkt share increases fm 6% to ard 20% now in 2 years time)

Not very long ago in Mar 2022 we saw Tin's price was ard USD40K+ and many MSC shareholders predicted it would stay in this high level for a long long time due to the great demand fm EV industry and shortage in supply would stay for a long long time etc. What happens next is Tin price plunged more than 50% to USD20K+ while MSC's price plunged ard 60%+ fm RM5+ to RM1.80+ now

Not very long ago in Mac 2022 we saw CPO's price was ard RM7K+pmt and many plantation co shareholders predicted it would stay at this high level for a long long time due to the great demand n supply can hardly be increased in short period of time (it takes ard 6 to 7 years to see good harvest of fruits), unlike glove. What happens next is CPO's price plunged more than 50% to RM3K+pmt now while most plantation stock plunged n traded in low single digit PE now.

Mayb OTB can write a letter to complaint to SC for them to look into these biased scenario??

Why they prefer a PE 30 tech stock rather than a PE 1+ HY or single digit PE Steel stocks or single digit PE Plantation stocks?

I also dunno

The big boys r not keen on refinery stocks....they like to bet on new tech stocks though many r traded at PE 30 or 40...

Bila pecah i dont know lah....the music is still on

Shhhh.....dont expose our secrets....

Export themes in 2015 n glove theme in 2020...this two alone can last for at least 2 generations

Its too humble of OTB....

Yr ROI fm 2013 is way way way way better....

Rr88's bloodbath curse becomes the strongest bleesings in I3

Now everyone loves rr88

I am a good monster in I3

Same like Cnergen n SFP

Not really lah i dont own this shares

Thanks for yr joke...it made my day....

i leave that to you...my conscience are clear

HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAH......the best joke I have ever heard in 2022

One common point between SFP n Cnergen...

Boss owns ard 70% of the shares

Easier to goreng

Guess we will have to wait for Q3 results in Nov

low income tax rate, I did mention there

Actually most did the same monkey tricks in I3 like Probability.....so why the fuss abt it?

Maybe i get things personally with Probability ....I thought he is one of the very few good smart guys in I3.

I was wrong.

As for Probability, I have seen his monkey tricks in Serbak....So I knew him well lah

Infact I have been very closed with Probability for the past many years, He is one of the very few of my friends in I3, bsides Icon8888..........until I get to know the real Probability not long ago in Serbak