When u see other glove co posted a drop of 80% to 90% in their latest Q n yet u believe Harta's fundamental will be the same....yes most if not all things shall be the same except one thing only...that is ASP...lol

Brainstorming them not to become suicide bombers anymore???

Ops typo...

Glove is over...

Love is over

Net profit margin of glove co was ard 10% pre covid 19

If ASP goes lower than pre covid 19 what will happen to their bottom line?

I just wonder why i spent so much time here entertaining a newbie....lol

Posted by 8899EL8899 > Dec 12, 2021 11:15 AM | Report Abuse

the trick TAN SRI doing is very beautiful, you won`t notice, he is very smart man.

Botak Chai set a wonderful trap of spec div 20%+50% normal div=70% DY in Jan 2021 when the price was RM7+

At the end u get div Rm0.50+ but suffers a capitol loss of RM4+

Brilliant...

For all the so called long term investors in glove, i salute yr courage n iron balls...

Meanwhile, always keep some Poh Chai Yun at home...u r going to need it very often for a long long time in years to come

Can ask the advice of long term steel co shareholders

53 vs 67...still a diff of 20%+

Lets c how it goes...another 10% drops in ASP fm now likely to make some smaller glove co here to lose money I think

Dec 11, 2021 11:14 AM | Report Abuse

Its a fundamental change in the whole supply n demand equilibrium of glove biz with China's presence.

Their supply increases fm 6%+ to 30% within 2 years time....

Some said China's ASP is 30% lower than Msian...i dunno how true it is...if so the gap shall be further reduced in near future.

Its either China's ASP will go up or Msia's price shall come down

Any further drops of ASP (say 10% to 20%) will hv very serious impact to glove co's bottom line (stay profitable).


As what I posted in Philip's thread earlier...It's good that China's ASP rebound a bit to narrow the price gap while Msia continues to drop

If China drops further then tai tai lok.....

Posted by bsinvestor > Dec 12, 2021 11:00 AM | Report Abuse

IPO money is could be needed to defend multi years of gloves commodity slump like steels. If price war really happen, it is structural change to the industry. Take multi years to correct this structural change.

At least a smart guy got my message

If China can further reduce their ASP to 40 u better go rush to buy Poh Chai Yun now....

DO u know what is local glove co's net profit margin prior to Covid 19???

Posted by Fly888888 > Dec 12, 2021 10:57 AM | Report Abuse

US Market

The China ASP

Sep 2021- 51.31 dolllar
Oct 2021 - 53.14 dolllar

Malaysia ASP

Sep 2021 - 74.07 dollar
Oct 2021 - 67.47 dollar

Do you think that China ASP price will drop 20% like pasar malam around 40 dollar next week month ?

Not sure...do u think Msia ASP will drop another 20% to reduce the price gap?

The long winter of Glove is coming...

Look at our local steels co during 1990s, all enjoyed good selling price good profit good share prices...

Ever since China mari during late 1990s or 2000s, all r being affected badly n suffers for many years till lately when China decided to cut their steel production

Low entry barrier low tech requiremnt

Too bad our glove co made Billions of RM profit this 2 years but oredi awaken the Giant n will lose our leading position forever I guess

If not how on earth ASP n Profit can drops by 80% to 90% leh

China's glove r cheaper lah aiyo Stockraider

For the past 20 years+, all shareholders of Big 4 glove r very happy investors....

In the coming 10 to 20 years, I think they will not be so happy

Posted by stockraider > Dec 12, 2021 10:19 AM | Report Abuse

U use to boast like that with QL, stoneage and serba....why now suddenly sing a different song leh ?

He tuned down a lot after Glove Party last year...maybe also realise that not all poor investors here are idxxts....

Finally Philip wake up n back to I3...must hv some really nice sleep last few days i guess...Feel good for him.

So Philip intends to buy n hold Harta this round for 10 years trying to copycat his earlier wonderful success story in Topglove???

I dunno...

But their supply inceases fm 6%+ in 2019 to ard 30% now....n their selling prices could be 20% to 30% lower than ours...

Mayb China mostly export to Africa Countries n Amazon?

Post Covid 19 China Taiko in glove era, asp, profit, share prices will be lower

Mark my words here...the worst has yet to come....glove co will struggle for years in time to come...

China China China

Didi, investing in shares for div has to study whether their profit or div can sustain or not....see their 5 or 10 years record...why they suddenly can pay very high div during certain years...

If Maybank for div play ok lah...

Assuming their annual profit goes back to pre covid 19, it will be ard rm200m or EPS rm0.08...

Assuming DY is 50%, Div per share is rm0.04 or ard 4%+...

This is provided ASP doesnt go down below pre covid 19....

Good div??? U think they can pay good div every year like this year??

If EPS drops 80% to 90% fm now how much of div can they pay next year or so??

U can takeover pjseow's role after he disappear next week onve Supermx touch rm1.30+

Can post long essays here freely one whole year like him while seeing price of Supermax drops fm rm10 to rm1.41 now

Asp
Asp
Asp

Many couldnt see this co relation btw ASP n profit

Why profit of most glove co jumped by so much, more than 10 times,some even 20 to 30 times last year even their sales quantity of glove doesnt go up that much...

1% drops in ASP will net off 10% rise in sales vol....assuming net profit margin is 10%...

Back to pre covid 19 level??

Do u know why ASP drops like shit?

Are we going to beat China Glove Players like how our Lee CW beat Lin Dan in Badminton?

Place yr bets pls.

Could be quietly copycat my trading styles who knows

U think everybody will be like Philip 10 years value long term investor dumb dumb hold for at least 10 years meh

Ops I m sorry it seems Philip also changed his investment style lately....buy n sell speculative stocks like Serbak etc very oftenly..

China mari I lari

Possible also...lets c

Steel biz is on the contrary, the biggest supplier China intends to cut their supply in long run..

That is a fundamental change in steel biz....

Its a fundamental change in the whole supply n demand equilibrium of glove biz with China's presence.

Their supply increases fm 6%+ to 30% within 2 years time....

Some said China's ASP is 30% lower than Msian...i dunno how true it is...if so the gap shall be further reduced in near future.

Its either China's ASP will go up or Msia's price shall come down

Any further drops of ASP (say 10% to 20%) will hv very serious impact to glove co's bottom line (stay profitable).

Most glove co will still be around in many years to come...though some of them may not be profitable for a while...

For example, Steel Co has been struggling for many years since China's steel comes into the picture during late 1990s or early 2000s

20 years+ down to road i hardly see any local steel co close shop...Except Perwaja n Kinsteel...

Despite our earlier differences...

I give credit when credit is due.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600329595.jsp?ftp=5

Finally Philip can sleep well now after sleepless nights for many many months since May /June 2020....

TG is RM2.16...very much lower than his average selling price of RM2.90+

Well done Philip!!

Posted by kbtsyl68 > Dec 11, 2021 10:05 AM | Report Abuse

For the quarter ended November,the utilisation rate is 55%.Despite the low utilisation rate,the TG still managed to book EPS of 2 cents. All overstock carry forward from 2020 order has fully cleared at end of 2021.
TG should report increase profit in the coming quarter. If my prediction is true,then there will be SBB beginning of January 2022.

Is yr prediction on Glove accurate so far in 2021??

If not what makes u to think yr prediction will be chun in 2022 leh???

Wrong.

If he did so in June 2020 by buying Supermax with margin he will make the biggest profits in his life if he sell all by End 2020

If he did so in June 2021 then will be a different sad ending

Timing is everything. Not really applicable to all those self proclaimed long term value investors lah

Philip sold all his TG at average 2.90+ before May/June 2020 n switched to Serbak....

Dont ask me if he could sleep well ever since then

But he certainly can sleep much better now for sure lah

Philip sold all his TG at average 2.90+ before May/June 2020 n switched to Serbak....

Dont ask me if he could sleep well ever since then

I3lurker,

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/2020-06-05-story-h1508013591-Challenging_the_Gloves_valuation_Top_Glove_as_example_felicity.jsp

For yr reading pleasure.

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/600323073.jsp?ftp=1

Posted by Sslee > May 24, 2020 5:39 PM | Report Abuse

Dear All,
The screen shot is his Topglove holding mark to market price at 1st Jan 2020. His buying cost when he start buying TopGlove in year 2010 and continues bought over the year till holding 2,043,800 is about RM 1 million.

23-Mar-2020 Sell TOPGLOV
-120,000 6.20 2,394.80
+741,605.20
27-Apr-2020 Sell TOPGLOV
-500,000 7.32 10,899.00
+3,649,101.00
12-May-2020 Sell TOPGLOV
-500,000 8.00 11,800.00
+3,988,200.00
14-May-2020 Sell TOPGLOV
-400,000 10.32 12,139.20
+4,115,860.80
15-May-2020 Sell TOPGLOV
-523,800 10.20 15,358.31
+5,327,401.69

Total sold 2,043,800 TopGlove for: RM 17,822,168.69

If he had hold his TopGlove till today at 22/5/2020 close price of RM 11.82 his 2,043,800 TopGlove is worth 11.82x 2,043,000 = RM 24,148,260 a different of about RM 6 m+

So I wish Philip good luck that his new purchased in O&G will give him this return (RM 6m+) in 2 year time.



Looks like Philip's average selling price for his Topglove is RM17,822,168 / 2,043,800 shares = Rm8.72+ (or RM2.90+ after bonus)

This is one of the classic