Jaks Resources - Can I still buy at this price ?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-02-13-story-h1483793293-Jaks_Resources_Can_I_still_buy_at_this_price.jsp

As I have said, do not worry if a company is able to raise fund through any means. Eversendai eventually cancelled its private placement at RM1 when the IB failed to sell and the stock fell badly later. Lonbisc unable to raise fund and defaulted in loan payment despite the seemingly healthy balance sheet and the stock was suspended. Dayang postponed its planned private placement exercise. Even Mr koon believes Dayang could not find buyers at its current price.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/koonyewyinblog/2020-02-12-story-h1483788521-Dayang_a_better_way_to_raise_funds_Koon_Yew_Yin.jsp

Travestor, I hope you don't mind I m not as good as LCW :D

It won't make any difference to me if Mr Koon is here because I was with him thru his previous journey in Jaks and I remained in Jaks while he has left.

What about you ? You will keep guessing day in day out whether he has left without telling you.

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VIN3133 Better don't !! Leave him alone at Dayang & focus there .
If he comes over and kacau here , it may be messy & history might repeat .
ALP won't be happy anyway !
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TanDavid88>KYY sells Dayang buys Jaks is the correct strategy.
Not buy Dayang and condemn Jaks.
12/02/2020 4:36 PM
12/02/2020 4:51 PM

The lack of proactive earnings guidance from the management is causing a lot of hesitation among Jaks' investors. Such situation is benefiting those with inside information as they can accumulate at low prices before the earnings of the power plant emerges.

dailyklse2010, thanks for sharing your thoughts and research.

i3lurker, can do everyone a favour here ? Please input RM300m earnings into the software just to see the target price output from the software. Thanks.

So, in the end, we are back to square one. What is the future earnings of the power plant which determines the future price of Jaks.

i3lurker, thank you for the discussion.

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i3lurker DK66

Yes you are right
Growth companies like Amazon, no one could predict their growth

you input revenue growth as 20% into your Monte Carlo software

real growth = 100% increase in revenue so software is wrong

Monte Carlo is just a tool.

Human Being must estimate a growth figure thats based on current market share etc etc with like 20 other factors
12/02/2020 9:49 AM

Maybe the software cannot correctly value "explosive" companies ?

Then, how can the IBs value Jaks when they do not know the earnings from the power plant ?

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i3lurker IB used wrong revenue assumptions
coz Company got new contracts or some contracts were not disclosed properly.

In Oil & Gas industry there a whole lot of "standby contracts".
You sign contract but nothing happens.
You just wait. Wait, Wait and wait
can wait 1 year, nothing happens

Principal just draw down on contracts by giving you jobs suddenly.
since revenue assumption is wrong Monte Carlo output will be wrong.
12/02/2020 9:42 AM

To be honest, I never heard of the software. I do not know how it works. Is it chart or fundamental based ?

Does the software adjusts itself to the price trend ?

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pjseow Haha, I have seen how IBs downgraded the tgt prices of dayang from from 1.20 to 80 s when the yoy eps have improved by more than 100 % for 5 qtrs . Then quickly increased the tgt prices to 1.20 one month later . Then increased the tgt prices to 1.65 within.2 months when the next qtrly result showed a 41 % yoy improvement. Then 2 months later, it increased the.tgt prices to 2.00 before the next qtr result is out. When the next qtr result was.out showing a
to 2.80 within.8 months with yoy eps growth of about 119 %, the IBs set tgt prices of 2.35. Now, before the qtrly result is out in the next 2 weeks, the tgt prices have gone up to 2.85.. The fundamentals of dayang could not have changed by 4 x within.8 months . In my opinion, the IB s should not have downgraded the tgt prices from 1.20 to 80s when the qtrly.result when the qtrly result showed an improvement of 80% beside a triple digit yoy improvement of last 3 qtrs. This is clearly a wrong judgements.
12/02/2020 9:36 AM

If the IBs are using the software, why do they still visit the power plant site ?

It is easy to find out whether the IB's are indeed using this software on Jaks. Just wait for the 2019 AR.

Just for discussion purpose.

Then, isn't it dangerous to use this Monte Carlo Software ? Does it mean an assumption of 3% O&M vs 5% O&M cost will determine if JHDP is worth 0.60 or 2.50 ?

Noted. They don't do fundamental analysis anymore ?
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i3lurker most IB and big listed companies have Monte Carlo Software.

if software says 60 sen then IB will publish 60 sen.
IB policy to prevent analyst to come out with unsubstantiated wild figures.
Its part of internal control.
12/02/2020 8:59 AM
12/02/2020 9:03 AM

Anybody can put up their opinions and all are welcome to argue credibly with facts and figures. There is nothing to stop anyone in believing IB's reports. Never look down on anybody .............. I agree.

Just do some readings ..................

Yes, especially after qqq3 turned .....

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firehawk 这个 Jaks 论坛，令人看尽许多赤裸裸的人性，叫人不寒而栗 。。。

还好，有一丝光亮，在微微的闪耀 。。。
12/02/2020 12:28 AM

O&M cost is around 3 % of revenue and is inflation adjusted base on CPI of US and Vietnam

leapkcfy , you are welcome

Why m I never worried about negative comments about Jaks ? Because I never believe that Jaks gone up from 0.40 to 1.51 was due to the promotion by the promoters here. Likewise, I do not think that the Naysayers can suppress Jaks' price.

There is only one determinant of Jaks' price - Jaks Hai Duong Power Plant !

Just like icon8888 and myself, Stockmanmy/qqq3 was a diehard supporter about a year ago. qqq3 painted a bright and colorful picture of Jaks. Now, all out of sudden, the color faded and the picture of Jaks is all black. He frequently mentioned that Jaks is the best contrarian stock in Bursa. But now ??

Every i3 reader knows that qqq3 and OTB are not in good term. Is qqq3 sabotaging OTB now ?

You cannot perform steam blow test without completing hydro test first

当地时间3月16日21时25分，中国能建投资公司投资建设、规划设计集团西南院总承包、华东建投安徽电建一公司承建的越南海阳2×60万千瓦燃煤电厂工程1号机组1号锅炉水压试验顺利完成。

This is old photo. boiler Hydro test already completed long ago

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leapkcfy Boiler hydraulic pressure test completed!! One step closer to COD!

https://www.facebook.com/108230520514069/posts/175948737075580/?d=n
11/02/2020 7:56 AM

At 50 sen no need to worry about destroying the planet ?

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10......for ethical reasons, most big funds have vowed to stay away from coal plants to protect the planet....If u want to make money by destroying the planet , that is your choice too.

Bhappy2, You are welcome.

Welcome on board ! Keep turning to Jaks is good but do not over-turn ! Just kidding. All the best to you !

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Bhappy2 Hi DK66,
I started turning to Jaks recently and will keep turning to Jaks until Jun 2021.
Hehehe
10/02/2020 7:33 PM

Bhappy2 I must thank DK66 and OTB for their valuable contributions here
10/02/2020 7:34 PM

Turning .......

PH - Won and turned
Kyy - forced out and turned
Icon8888 - sold but not turned
Sslee - turned and bought
qqq3 - sold and turned
Sarifah - bought and haven't turned
hng33 - keep turning
OTB - No turning until Jun 2021
DK66 - No turning until destination

Just for laugh !

newbie8080, Thank you. I hope you have bought Jaks long ago. You were one of the early discoverer of Jaks though not quite convinced then.
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newbie8080 Thumbs up on the well written stress test!
10/02/2020 6:38 PM

This Jaks forum never fail to surprise me. Now stockmanmy/qqq3 has turned from a supporter to disbeliever. I still respect icon8888 the most.

hng33, thank you for the explanation.

Is Cup and handle a very bullish signal ? Is it rare ?

Thank you all for your kind words

On what ground ?

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busyweekly8888 I think KYY is asking admin to remove DK66's article.
10/02/2020 1:12 PM

ccy123, Thank you for your kind words

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ccy123 DK66, YOU ARE THE BEST I EVER KNOW IN I3
10/02/2020 10:26 AM

I agree with ccy123

I m not a property expert. I could not assess Jaks' property business prospect with confidence. Therefore, I decided to do a stress test on Jaks' financial positions to examine if Jaks' property segment will cause serious harm and result in Jaks' bankruptcy. My article does not imply that Jaks' property segment will indeed result in further losses after the completion of the Pacific Star project.

To certain extent, I agree with Mr Koon's assessment of current property market in malaysia. However, his final assessment of Jaks' future prospect without taking into consideration of the future earnings of the power plant is disappointing.

There is no denying that Jaks' property segment is under-performing. However, it will not be a significant business to Jaks after the power plant commences operation.

Assessment of Jaks' future prospect must take the power plant future earnings into account

Jaks Resources - A Case Without Property Segment ?

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/Jaks%20resources/2020-02-09-story-h1483732841-Jaks_Resources_A_Case_Without_Property_Segment.jsp

bukithot, the deadline for completion of Unit 1 is 1st Dec 2020. CEEC completed Vinh Tan 1 six months ahead of schedule. Judging by the current progress, this can be expected of JHDP as well.

Management do not want to guide an early completion just to play safe.

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bukithot Hi OTB, DK66,

First of all thank you so much for your sharing of precious information and views in this forum.

From JAKS annual report of 2018, it mentions 'the commercial operation of the frst unit of the power plant is expected to commence between the third and fourth quarter of 2020, followed by the second unit in 2021'.

From latest information, it indicates that unit 1 (Mar 2020) and unit 2 (May 2020) will be commissioning ahead of the timeline indicated in the annual report.

Is it your understanding that JAKS sped up the progress than expected? :)

Dear OTB,

Certainly, I will keep readers here informed as soon as I found new information on potential COD.
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OTB Dear DK66,
Please help to verify unit 1 of the power plant to produce electricity commercially on 3/3/2020 and unit 2 to produce electricity commercially on 6/5/2020.
Thank you.
07/02/2020 7:08 PM

OTB, noted with thanks

For those who are still sitting on the fence, you must realize that the power plant will achieve COD soon. You should make your decision now. The longer you wait, the closer it is to COD. Keep dragging your feet hoping to buy at lower prices is not wise now. Entering at a reasonable level with a cut lost point is a better strategy.

This is perhaps the last time I would urge i3 readers here to make up your mind now. "Either in or out but don't wait outside". Time is ripe for your decision.

Thank you

Not ALP ??

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deMusangking When you drink water, think of it’s source.”
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when i go ahmoiing, i think of bursa!
it is the money from bursa!!!!!

haha
07/02/2020 10:06 AM

If JHDP can achieve FULL COD by May, you will see fast track recognition of construction profit in the next few quarters.

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VIN3133 TQVM for sharing , sifu OTB !

"The unit 1 of the power plant in Vietnam is ready to produce electricity commercially in March 2020, unit 2 will produce electricity commercially in May 2020." - Is this part of the so called " confidential info " revealed by the VIP of CPECC in the recent visit of power plant with jaks management & bankers ? I am just curious to know .
07/02/2020 12:03 AM

OTB I was told a few bankers were there to visit the site with Jaks management.
VIP of CPECC were also there.
Those bankers should know whether this power plant is real or not.

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VIN3133 Dk66, u mentioned earlier that OTB mentioned to u that ALP recently brought IBs people to visit the power plant . Any way to confirm ?

The IBs cannot cover Jaks without guidance from the management