888next, If the 165m warrants are exercised, DS's stake is reduced to 26.3%. Can't DS exercise some warrants to increase its control to 32.96% ?

888next, I believe in such scenario, DS will at least exercise sufficient warrant to maintain its control under 33%.

888next, any possibility of the 165m warrants exercised by some friendly parties and DS exercised partially to main its control without extending MGO ?

Icwin, 150m based on 30% or 40% ownership ?

888next, Thanks for the explanation.

If the 165 warrants are exercised by PAC, and DS exercises a portion of its warrants so as to remain below 33% (thus avoided MGO), isn't this MGO avoidance detrimental to the minority due to the huge dilution and yet no MGO ?

Thank you

mmk79, you are welcome

Hng33 seems to be very confident now. Hopefully he will hold on longer this time. Hope he won't find something worrisome later after he sold.

Based on my studies, the remaining significant procedures will be turbine test, grid synchronization, and 168 hours stress test. Commercial operation will commence almost immediately after the stress test.

--------------------------
mmk79 @DK66, can you enlighten us the remaining processes (after steam blow test) to be tested before commencement of operation??
22/01/2020 10:56 AM

http://www.swepdi.ceec.net.cn/art/2020/1/21/art_17693_2058275.html

----------------------------
speedlikecy Hi DK66, mind to share the link?


DK66： 当地时间2020年1月20日1时，公司总承包的越南海阳2×60万千瓦燃煤电厂工程1号机组1号锅炉吹管工作圆满完成。

　　越南海阳项目部组织各参建单位紧密配合，制定了吹管前安全措施和吹管过程中的安全监督措施，对整个准备工作严格把控，并在吹管过程中对临吹系统、四大管道系统、锅炉膨胀系统等进行了全面检查，为1号机组1号锅炉吹管工作提供了坚实的保障。
22/01/2020 10:39 AM

888next, Hi, thanks for in-depth analysis of the warrant scenario. My question is;

Is it possible for Thong and the other 165m warrants holders to exercise partially their warrants in such a way to completely avoid MGO ?

Thank you.

hng33, honestly, I m unsure on this point. However, MFCB was paid for its electricity during testing period.

---------------------
If remember correctly, electricity generated during testing period will connect to the grid and sell electricity for profit right?
22/01/2020 9:13 AM

leapkcfy,

I suppose OTB was taking publicinvest's USD0.05 as the net-of-costs (excluding admin) amount. It could not have included coal costs as USD0.05 is not sufficient to cover fuel costs.

Publicinvest was not clear in its computation. I m not able to pass a judgement.

----------------------
leapkcfy Dear DK66,

How about other expenses like coal and other running cost?
22/01/2020 8:48 AM

hng33, you are welcome

------------------
hng33 DK66

Many thanks for your previous explanation. I am glad can return back to jaks and jak-WB yesterday. After done study more thoroughly on all your earlier article and continuous posting on power plant update on progress. These valuable information on jaks power plant is far more transparent and clear if compared to limited information can gather in YTLP..... Hats off to you.
22/01/2020 8:42 AM

Dear OTB,

The power plant will employ around 200 people, It is not quite possible that the administration charges can be as high as RM458 m (30%) to 763m (50%).


----------------------------------
OTB Dear DK66,

Below is the important information that I wish to share here.

Base on Vietnam government report (stated in this forum),
Annual electricity produced by Hai Duong power plant in Vietnam = 7.5 billion kwh.

Base on Public Investment Bank's report dated 10 January 2017,
Average per kwh of electricity sell to EVN = USD 0.05

Assume 1 USD = RM 4.07
Yearly profit = 7.5 billion * 0.05 * 4.07 = RM 1,526.25 million
Jaks 30% stake = RM 1,526.25*0.3 = RM 457.87 million

EPS of Jaks = 457/643 = RM 0.71
Target price if PER = 10 is RM 7.10

Assume 50% is the administration charges, target price = RM 3.55.

Assume 30% is the administration charges, target price = RM 4.97.

Please help to verify this information.

Thank you.
22/01/2020 1:17 AM

Yes, steam blow is a very important and critical milestone. It means the biggest and most important equipment of the power plant is ok. Next is steam turbine rolling to 3000 rpm.

Once steam blow is started, it won't stop until it is completed. Some may have to work during CNY.
-------------------
huahtai98 Chinese workers likely will be off for 2 weeks for CNY so blowtest for 2nd boiler likely in Feb.
21/01/2020 9:45 PM

Boiler 2 likely to complete steam blow by 27th Jan.

boiler 1 successfully completed steam blow !

当地时间2020年1月20日1时，公司总承包的越南海阳2×60万千瓦燃煤电厂工程1号机组1号锅炉吹管工作圆满完成。

　　越南海阳项目部组织各参建单位紧密配合，制定了吹管前安全措施和吹管过程中的安全监督措施，对整个准备工作严格把控，并在吹管过程中对临吹系统、四大管道系统、锅炉膨胀系统等进行了全面检查，为1号机组1号锅炉吹管工作提供了坚实的保障。

Please invest carefully. Losing money in stock market can have dire consequences in all aspects not just money.

-----------------
leapkcfy in gemfinder profile

Due to repeated abuse posts, this account has been suspended from posting to the i3investor portal until 28/01/2020. Please refer to the Terms and Conditions of Use and Community Standards of this portal.

(WELLDONE GUYS)
20/01/2020 5:07 PM

Funds are very likely to buy Jaks now as it is the beginning of a new financial year for them. As Jaks power plant will commence operation in 2020, Jaks' share price will go up and it is good for their fund performance in 2020.

I m glad to have a chartered accountant joining the boat. I trust that he will share his knowledge on Jaks' financial situation as well as the Hai Duong power plant.

Thank you

-----------------
OoiKamChiew_CA retirement has never been so exciting! I was holding a high post in one of the big 4 accounting firm, seen thousands of financial statements and hundred of companies but when I found out about OTB's stock pick, I am amazed of the realisticism on how to identift good stocks to buy.

I am now TA advocator relying on FA as the catalyst. JAKS is one of the company that could break its ceiling price, from a non performing construction company to a power plant operator, it is literally changing its business model and this will be the more profitable business model.

I have done satelitte image to view the site and it is mostly done and could start running as early as April 2020.

I am showing my support to Mr OTB, whom is a gentleman for sharing this with us.

"Trust me I am a Chartered account"
20/01/2020 11:52 AM

OTB, you are welcome

Speedlikecy,

I m obliged to tell you that I did say that my first TP is 2.50 but I gave no timing.

I m very poor at market timing. I have no idea whether my TP 2.5 is achievable by 2020.

But I know Unit 1 of the power plant in Vietnam will start operation in Mid 2020

---------------------
speedlikecy TP info

20200120 RHB Retail Research
TP: 1.6-1.7
Towards the upside, the immediate resistance is at the RM1.60 mark. This is followed by the RM1.70 level

20200115 Hong Leong
TP: 1.65
Trading buy call on jaks , TP 1.65.

DK66
TP RM2.5 by 2020.

please correct me if info above incorrect.
20/01/2020 11:09 AM

There is a simple way to see for yourself how big is 1,200MW power plant. Just take a look at your monthly electricity bill. Look at the KwH consumed by your family. 1,200MW power plant can produce about 700 million KwH per month. If your family monthly usage is 700 KwH, Jaks power plant can provide electricity to about 1 million home !

Is that or is that not a big business ??

Andy was never keen to interact with the IBs, neither was him keen on providing profit guidance to analysts. That is why there was so few coverage from IBs and analysts on Jaks.

If Andy has began taking initiative to guide the IBs on the power plant, is this the beginning of his effort to "unlock" Jaks' valuation ?

------------------------------
OTB I was told a few bankers were there to visit the site with Jaks management.
VIP of CPECC were also there.
Those bankers should know whether this power plant is real or not.

Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020,

Thank you, hope you will find yourself a comfortable counter to invest in.

----------------------------
Armada An Quantum Leap Stock In 2019/2020 Dk66 bro,
Although I'm not on jaks
But am enjoy reading your comments

Trust jaks has more to comes

Most people fail to understand what it means for a smallish company like Jaks to own 30% - 40% in a RM8 billion power plant in Vietnam, a country hungry for electricity to power economy.

Even at 1.44, Jaks is still less than a billion in market capitalisation.

fcdematthew, you are welcome

I m jealous of OTB. He didn't have to endure the pain during the great fall from 1.80 to 0.40.

He has great sense of timing. Got in just in time.

I wish I have that talent

------------------------------------
VIN3133 Yes , ex-auditor DK66, your detailed research reports on Vietnam IPP carry weight. Otherwise, sifu OTB wouldn't have placed heavy position on Jaks , his Miss Universe stock for 2020 !

wan7075, if you visit Insas forum, you will know who he is

---------------
wan7075 bro DK, may i know who is Sslee?

It is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to secure financing for coal power plant now. China, Korea and Japan are the only few willing to finance coal power plants provided they get the BOT.

However, the statement below is certainly true

"Don't forget there are now increasingly number of banks who refuses to issue loans to any coal related projects as part of their CSR obligation."

Do you think Lonbisc would not have raised capital to avoid the loan default if it is able to do so ?

myongcc5, lim900510, you are welcome

soojinhou, your statement may be right if you are only referring to solar and wind and NOT hydro.

In Vietnam, hydro is still the cheapest source of electricity and even today vietnam is only paying US$0.05 for its domestic hydro generation. However, as opportunity for large hydro has almost completely exploited, it has to resort to other means including buying from neighboring countries.

https://www.vietnam-briefing.com/news/vietnams-push-for-renewable-energy.html/

--------------------------
soojinhou I think your statement is illogical. Green energy has always been more expensive than dirty energy. That's why those who can afford to do so will invest in green energy like solar, hydro or wind, and those who cannot afford to do so, invests in dirty coal plants. The fact that hydro energy trades at parity to coal energy is shitty news for the coal industry. For if green energy cost the same as dirty energy, no sane country will invest in dirty energy. In fact, last year probably mark the turning point in global climate change awareness that will potentially turn the world increasingly hostile towards fossil fuels especially coal. So those expecting JAKS to trade at similar valuation to MFCB, I think you all need to see how cheap coal miners are to understand where is the world moving in the future. Don't forget there are now increasingly number of banks who refuses to issue loans to any coal related projects as part of their CSR obligation.
17/01/2020 11:50 AM

Dear Sslee,

Care to introduce yourself here ?

Thank you

-------------------------
wan7075 bro DK, may i know who is Sslee?
17/01/2020 11:39 AM

latuk, don't worry.....

If talks can bring down Jaks, then Jaks will not be 1.46 today.

I saw much more negative talks when Jaks was 0.50. It is them who missed out on this opportunity.

elbrutus only raised some legitimate concerns which happened to Dayang as well. But see where Dayang is now.

I was an auditor and I can tell you this;

Do not worry if a company is raising capital because it is an indication of capability, be very worry if it is not able to raise capital.

Jaks did a warrant rights in late 2018, and look at it now.

elbrutus, it depends on what would be the theoretical ex-rights price.

elbrutus, to prevent dilution, you should subscribe if the rights is done at low price.

Yes, always good to seek assurance when in doubt. You need confidence to ride on.

-------------------------
elbrutus DK66...oic...i ask this query for confirmation cos need to prepare a substantial amount if this RI arises !!!

nobirdie, Thank you
-------------------
nobirdie God bless ppl like DK66 and OTB. honesty ruled the earth!
17/01/2020 10:48 AM

A private placement was done in 2019 for that purpose

---------------------------------
elbrutus a friend of mine mentioned that in their last ANNUAL REPORT they did said that they need extra RINGGIT to complete this PP project ...therefore d RI ...most probably may announce after CNY
17/01/2020 10:47 AM

Investigation, please help to post this question to the CEO/CFO
Thanks

---------------
elbrutus DK66/OTB ....can i ask this question ???....is there a GREAT possibility that there is RIGHT ISSUE COMING THIS WAY ?????????

my email is i3dk66@gmail.com

-----------------------
investigation Hi DK66,

Will get back to you. Anyway can I tell you the answers once i got privately? As I do not wish to furnish info in this forum. Anyway to contact you?

I would ask;

1. What is the agreed capacity charge per KwH per year ?
2. What is the agreed heat rate per KwH ?
3. What is the agreed coal and HFO input ratio of the agreed heat rate ?
4. What is the rated efficiency of the power plant ?
5. What is the most likely COD of unit 1 ?
6. What is the agreed dividend policy of JPP, HK with CPECC ?
7. What is the future dividend policy of Jaks ?

------------------------
investigation Hi DK66,

If you get to ask questions to JAKS's CFO and CEO, what will you ask? Please post ur questions here. TQ.
17/01/2020 9:54 AM

:))

:)

edkfc, thanks for the info.

I read a similar report on coal power plants in china which revealed similar findings.

That is why I always suspect the IRR of JHDP is much higher than 12%.


-------------------------
"Pursuant to the method for determination of the practices and discount rate of the energy sector, the full investment IRR of a 600MW coal-fired power plant is set to 6.6%and the proprietary funds IRR is set to 8%
[21]
, i.e. the benchmark rate of return of the sector. This analysis shows that the rate of return of the coal power project of each
typical province is far higher than the benchmark level of the power sector. Especially for Hebei, Jiangsu and Guangdong, the full investment IRR exceeds 15% and the equity capital IRR close to or exceeds 30%, and the coal power enterprises can even recoup Equity Capital in less than three years and 5 to 6 years for Project Full Investment. This high IRR and this short payback period likely reveal the economic driven factor for the unabated interest in coal power investment in the environment of weak demand and low-carbon transformation."
16/01/2020 10:36 PM