Please note that this information is for general knowledge and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. It's essential to consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

"The analysis you presented is a common perspective among some investors, but it's important to consider several factors before drawing conclusions:

Capital Flows: While it's true that a US market crash could lead to capital outflows from the US, the extent and direction of these flows are uncertain. Investors might seek safe-haven assets like gold or other developed market currencies instead of emerging markets. Additionally, the impact on emerging markets could vary depending on their individual economic conditions and attractiveness to investors.

Currency Fluctuations: A US market crash could weaken the US dollar, which might initially benefit emerging market currencies like the Ringgit. However, the overall impact on the Ringgit would depend on various factors, including Malaysia's economic fundamentals, global risk appetite, and the actions of the central bank.

Market Sentiment: Investor sentiment plays a crucial role in market movements. A US market crash could trigger a global risk-off sentiment, leading to a sell-off in emerging markets, including the KLSE. This could outweigh any potential benefits from capital inflows.

Economic Fundamentals: The performance of the KLSE and the Ringgit ultimately depends on Malaysia's economic fundamentals. A strong economy with sound policies and attractive investment opportunities would likely attract investors even during times of global uncertainty.

Time Horizon: The short-term impact of a US market crash on emerging markets could be negative, but the long-term outlook might be more positive if the crash leads to a global economic reset and a shift in investment focus towards emerging markets.

Therefore, while a US market crash could potentially benefit emerging markets like Malaysia, the actual outcome is uncertain and depends on a complex interplay of factors. It's crucial to conduct thorough research and consider various scenarios before making investment decisions.

I asked free version of AI Gemini about this analysis

"The NYSE and NASDAQ are very frothy and have been sucking up investment funds from other markets, especially emerging ones like Malaysia. A US crash would release hundreds of billions of global funds into emerging markets and currencies like the KLSE and Ringgit and, in turn, cause those to rally."

Good try. Best of luck for those buy into such spin🤣🤣

Aiya......Fast and Furious mah.....beh tahan when the Fund manager making false claim🤣🤣

Just take a stone and throw also can hit, please la... Also be profressional to use word like Total Shareholder Return. Even Ah Fook like me also know !

By the way, he is EPF dividend history for past 70 years++

https://www.kwsp.gov.my/en/others/resource-centre/dividend

The fund manager think we all are Pak Chee?

7. P&G
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/pg/dividends

6. Coca Cola
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/ko/dividends

5. IGB REITs
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/stock/entitlement/5227

4. Heneiken Malaysia Berhad
https://dividends.my/heim-3255/

2. Public Bank
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/stock/entitlement/1295

3. RHB Bank
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/stock/entitlement/1066

1. Maybank
https://klse.i3investor.com/web/stock/entitlement/1155

I am shocked by the claim by ICAP is the only listed company in the entire world to have paid out such a dividend during Covid. To claim only the only ONE meaning if we can find one, he is lying?

@Patient Investors- so you took the DRIP?

I think TTB is setting up a trap for himself now on the dividend tinge since DRIP take up rate was only 20%....NAV will drop if his performance does not matching the dividend rate. He will receive a bit lesser management fees but at least most people will feel a bit better. In the most extreme case he may suspense dividend, then it will cause iCAP shares to drop...more and more people will feel no incentive to invest with iCAP.

So, I think this most innovative dividend design to auto-correct discounts gap as good as dead to me. Just look at the discounts now, it's approaching 25-28%. Beginning of the year was 20%, it has gotten worse by 5-8%.

@Patient Investor......be careful lo, later you will be labelled as the running dogs again

The fund manager always omitted the KLCI dividend when making comparisons and insisted that he had beaten the KLCI by a wide margin. 😎

I hope that was his last posting on sitting on tonnes of cash to produce superior returns to avoid embarrassment and mislead people. People know how to use financial calculator these days. 😂😂

It's works for WB by holding a lot of cash but it does NOT work for fake WB of Msia is my conclusion.

It is well known that the Fund Manager has been bearish from 2013 - 2018 with cash holding between 50-68% cash.

His justification was scooping up dirt cheap stocks when it is crash like 2020 to achieve superior CAGR of 15-18%. Is it true?

2013 NAV 211 mln/cash 107 mln/Investment(non-cash) 104 mln

2024 NAV 377 mln/cash 52 mln/Investment(non-cash) 318 mln.

For the 11 years using this strategy CAGR return was only 5.2%.

Assuming the reduction of 54 mln cash was deployed into investment, his 158 mln(104+54) turning into 318 mln, non-cash CAGR return is only 6.5%

So what is the problem here?

Every finance student must know this, the basis of evaluating any investment, must exceed this bar to be adding value. So if the fund manager is talking about X% IRR or whatever the figure, the equivalent non cash portion of the assets must earn an extra X% to make up for the zero returns from the cash, which is not earning much after paying management fees. If you have only one leg to stand on, it must be twice as strong to support the whole body weight then, such simple logic.

BTW, if his strategy was working, NAV should have grown from 211 mln(2013) to 983 mln(2024) with 15% CAGR.

Assuming he started to invest aggressively in 2018 at NAV 229 mln, to hit 983 mln, needs CAGR of 27% for 6 years to make up the lost time. He needs to increase NAV by 754 mln within that 6 years not 142 mln... his CAGR of scooping at dirt low price with a lot cash from 2018 till 2024 was disappointing, only manage to return 8.2%.

Now a bit longer answers:

At current exchange rate, COL can exit with a profit if they want, in fact this is what they have been doing lately.

TTB's fees are based on NAV, not share price. He will keep collecting money regardless of who is selling. He has been scheming to get rid of the ‘foreign disruptor’ with lawsuits, unfair dividend and DRP policies and using all means of platforms to make political speeches.

Now the losers - shareholders who are sold during all the roadshows, annual reports, iCap newsletters etc. The selling by COL will put a cap on the market price for a long time unless some deep pockets investors that TTB loves coming in to take over COL’s stakes. So, wait la until all the sell orders are exhausted.

@Najib Zamry

"Let’s wait and see WHO is the final winner TTB or COL ?"

Short answers:

TTB and COL : Winners

Shareholders : Losers

To be honest, I have not been paying much attentions to iCAP for quite while unless the fund manager is making ridiculous statements. One of them that I cannot tahan when I read this year Annual Report.

"The same group of activists has previously wound up another listed closed-end fund, Amanah Millenia Fund in 2007. " Page 10, iCapital 2024 Annual Report.

Such falsehood cannot be allowed to stand unchallenged and here are the actual facts of the case as per public record.

"Same group" meaning COL was part of it? You won't find it......see this link...

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/f6e8funvzomd1zmr8tipf/AN-osfCNnoPlYpil5hsTacI?rlkey=iq88eonwnpygbxmp2guk98f3v&st=0hx4qw60&dl=0

The vote to continue the fund after 10 years from listing is in its M&A, and the special resolution is proposed by the fund itself, as per the notice of meeting.

As a special resolution, it required at least 75% acceptance and no single or a couple of shareholders can muster that number as per the shareholders list.

These 75% must the activists then. 🙄🙄

$ 0.1041 dividend is no sweetener because stock price tanking like a rock, much more than $ 0.1041.....I will surely sell first ask questions later.......sell first and buy back at lower price, provided discount to NAV is huge enough - may another round of 40% discount? TTB sure will scream again, WTF, my NAV naik but my share price lembik.

Where on earth you have bought shares and told you are not entitled to dividends ?????

TTB should be aware that Ringgit appreciations will help COL as they will have forex and capital gains....

If they dump 4 more million shares, you will almost bet it will go below $3

I can almost bet....COL will be forced to sell more...look at the dividend that TTB has just announced on 27/9/2024

"Under the written procedures established by ICAP pursuant to the Securities Industry (Central Depositories) (Foreign Ownership) Regulations 1996, foreigners who hold Shares within the prescribed limit of 20% of the total number of issued Shares (“Prescribed Limit”) shall be entitled to all rights and obligations attached to the Shares as determined by the Board. In this connection, the Board will implement the restriction to the Shares held by foreign depositors which exceed the Prescribed Limit (“Restricted Shares”) as follows:



(i) the Restricted Shares held by foreign depositors shall not be entitled to the Interim Dividend and therefore are not entitled to participate in the DRP;



(ii) the Restricted Shares will be determined on ‘last-in first-out’ basis (i.e. where the Prescribed Limit is breached, Shares acquired by foreigners later in time than those acquired earlier in time, as they appear on the record of depositors, will be deemed as Restricted Shares); and



(iii) Shares held by foreigners which are within the Prescribed Limit shall be entitled to the Interim Dividend and are entitled to participate in the DRP."

What Artificial? What Trending? A person never accept responsibility is terrible. It's like election, when the people spoken, accept la the results and don't blame the voters. When price down, blame COL for selling. When price up[COL buying] last year, it was TTB dick a good job.

@SSLee....
>>>>>Can I quote below to report TTB to Bursa SC so that actions can be taken against him for violation of Bursa rule and regulation:
Paragraph/Rule 9.12(1) and Paragraph/Rule 9.12(2)

Or do I need to wait till next 2 to 4 years if KLCI did not hit 2,500 - 3,000 points?>>>>

This is equivalent to saying if Trump wins the US election, I will shave my head! A promise. Of course, promises can be easily broken, and cannot be sued for specific performance.

However if you feel strongly and want to file a complaint, this is the link

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/contact_us/other_complaints 😎

Bursa has some guidelines regarding promotional

Paragraph/Rule 9.12(1) of the LR states that a listed
issuer/corporation must refrain from promotional disclosure activity
in any form whatsoever or howsoever which may mislead investors or
cause unwarranted price movement and activity in a listed issuer’s/
corporation’s securities.
➢ Paragraph/Rule 9.12(2) of the LR states that such activity includes
news releases, public announcements, predictions, reports or
advertisements which are –
(a) not justified by actual developments concerning a listed issuer/
corporation;
(b) exaggerated;
(c) flamboyant;
(d) overstated or
(e) over-zealous.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/sites/5d809dcf39fba22790cad230/assets/65d83fa5e6414a1d4b27dd65/3._Other_Disclosure_Breaches__clean___1_.pdf

If you read the case study Company I was reprimanded and two of Executive Directors were fined $100,000 each.

Re-quote above past post -- by right iCap cannot make such bold statements. It's almost like a company giving forecast for their company Sales, Profitability, EPS or NAV growth. Such statements from someone who is holding such an important position akin like coming from the mouth of a CEO could influence movement of its share price. It should be prohibited. I believe many people who bought at 3.30-3.40 will certainly think/anchored the NAV RM 8 will come true by 2029.

>>>"Posted by JohnD0ugh > 2024-05-12 12:52 | Report Abuse

What will be the target price of icapital.biz Berhad 3 to 5 years from now ? There are two possible positive outcomes.

[1]. Assume NAV of icapital.biz Berhad doubling from RM3.93 – to around RM7.86 in 5 years. If its share price equals the NAV of RM7.86 then, it will rise by RM4.81 or 158% from RM3.05 nowadays. If its share price then trades at a say a conservative 10% premium to its NAV, as the Malaysian stock market will then be in a bullish mood, its share price will equal to RM8.65 – a rise of RM5.60 or 184% from RM3.05 now.

[2]. The NAV of icapital.biz Berhad has in the past outperformed the KLSE by 6 percentage points per annum. So, if this pattern repeats and the KLCI doubles in 5 years, the NAV of icapital.biz Bhd in 5 years’ time will be RM10.19. Assume its share price trades at a 10% premium to its NAV, the share price of your Fund will trade at RM11.21 – a jump of RM8.16 or 267% from RM3.05 nowadays.

In short, the expected share price of icapital.biz Berhad in 3 to 5 years’ time will double to either RM7.86 or rally to RM11.21, a gain of RM8.16.

The above performance has not included potential contribution from the dividend policy of icapital.biz Berhad.
In the past, when nearly all the shareowners of icapital.biz Berhad were individuals, its share price traded at a premium to its NAV. In the coming years, I pray that this can be repeated so that your Fund can finally restore its real value. In that context, I would like to make a plea to the few recalcitrant investors (for the lack of a better term to describe them) not to act disruptively and destructively.


i Capital.biz Berhad 3Q2024 Report"

iCAP NAV 5-Sept-2024 $ 3.88
iCAP Share Price 6-Sep-2024 $ 3.17
Discount = 18%

For a long time, we didn't see iCap discounts get less than 20%.....Congratulations to the fund manager. This narrowing discount thanks to its NAV drop from all time high $4.47(- 13%). His star performers like SAM and Padini had very bad quarterly results contributed to the sharp price downward shift.

Questions: will its NAV continue to drop and will the recent bull buyers get disappointed and move its share price down?

Perhaps the bulls won't throw in their towels --- if NAV continues to drop, we may see its share price may even traded for a premium. 😎

Why blame foreign inteference?

Chart wise, looks like a double top formed.

Portfolio wise, 30% of holding is tied to technology (KGB and Unisem)......It can cut both ways.....if technology rotation is real....you can expect NAV to go down together but of course if it's just a blip, then you can expect NAV to go higher.

Market is rational and perhaps the fund manager can also think rationally.

The Trillion Dollar Equation.....if you are interested to find out go to this Youtube link to watch the video on Options

https://youtu.be/A5w-dEgIU1M?si=dA-P0vHccs11kQL-

A call option at current market price has no intrinsic value, therefore it is free. Just like giving out supermarket coupons with no discount! For suckers.

But the fund managers now going round saying he is super bullish and sold off all his "free call option"(cash) but willing to pay premium for his Call Options. 😝😝

Gemini AI helps me a little on this Free Call option thinge
Quote
The claim of possessing a "free call option" is misleading and lacks financial rigor. There's no such thing as a truly free option; its acquisition invariably comes with a cost, often in the form of opportunity cost or other trade-offs.

It's more accurate to say that the individual is strategically holding a high cash position, anticipating potential market downturns to deploy capital for undervalued assets. While this approach might lead to short-term performance gains, attributing these gains to a "free call option" is an oversimplification and misrepresents the complexities of options trading.

Such a strategy is essentially a form of market timing, which is inherently risky and difficult to execute consistently. Any outperformance achieved through this method should be evaluated in the context of the overall market and investment universe, rather than being solely attributed to a mythical "free call option".
Unquote

We all knows that Call Option has natural leverage that will magnify the returns when you get it right. I was wondering if it has 2X, 3X even 4X return on his 267 million call option will deliver additional $4 -$8 NAV per share(adding additional gains 500-1 billion using 2018 as a baseline.

Dedicated to Papa TTB.....what is market manipulation.

SC sues Yu Kuan Chon over alleged market rigging, manipulation

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/716904

My take TTB is using diversion tactics.. Hate DAP. Everything is DAP's problem. At this point TTB will be even more afraid to declare dividend. When it goes ex-dividend the share price has not mementum to go to before dividend... It's a psychological perception price got depresssed eve further.

All talk talk only....no action one on the innovative dividend....will be a miscarriage 🤣🤣

1st year innovative dividend Cheng Beng anniversary will come soon. RiP

Dream ba.... Dividend... Rising NAV = more management fees😂😂

Wat! SBB? Dividend? Why benefit COL? Why bail them out at such a good price? You see the problem here?? TTB said COL sold hastily....you mean they should sell only 5,000 days/day to maintain price? Then you are asking COL to use 600 trading days to exit? 😂😂 COL not so bodoh la....why crash iCAP price while they managed to disposed a small little brother middle finger while the whole body is still trapped in iCAP

An old dog may have some cognitive capacity to learn new tricks.. 😂😂

Don't use same old long winded tactics

Or do share buy back

If I'm TTB, declares dividend

bad feng shui on iCap

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/05/31/klci-slips-below-1600-mark-857-stocks-in-red

Why it FY closing ended on the day with 857 stocks in red?

After Pop lost the case -- what do you expect? If foreigners can't buy more surely sell la!

When you see COL sell, the rest cannot sell ah????

COL still got at least 30 million++ shares to sell.....this will be the share price overhang even NAV shoot up to $5

It's a value trap....got shares sell now, no shares buy other counters.....you can even copy TTB portfolio without paying him any management fees. :)

Looking at the daily volume, no interests from retail investors to buy ady.