The long term trend of this stock is down both chart and earnings wise. APM maybe cheap but not to impose any hindsight bias here, the difference between buying at RM3 and RM 2 is 50%

In before KYY comes out with another article asking you to add

Oct 20, 2016 02:39 PM | Report Abuse

Sell on strength. 50% of Gadang net profit comes from property developments sold during the hot years. Future property sales are unlikely to come online soon and margin is gonna be much lower. Gadang looks fully valued to me. In one or two years, its profit gonna crasg at least 25% with or without MRT 2 contracts.

By Flintstones.

Oct 22, 2016 05:10 PM | Report Abuse

Gadang is approaching the end of the trend. Many people are quoting its low PE as a reason to buy into Gadang big time. But investors are ignoring the red flags where the order book could not keep up with revenue. Gadang PE may be low but when the earnings are cut by halve in 2018, this stock is gonna correct. Gadang will still go up, thanks to the speculators who trend follow. Remember what the smart does early, the fool does in the end. Smart people are already trimming this position bit by bit.

By Flintstones.

Opening -10%. How many punters got burnt?

Felicity is the best thinker in the current financial blogging world. He has my respect.

No wonder the director sold a bunch of shares recently. As I said earlier this week, sell on strength. Expect Gadang to retest RM 3. There are after all too many punters who dont even know Gadang business crowding this stock. Also, Gadang is a small cap construction player. To me, Gadang will never trade more than 12-13x PE. The upside is limited from here. The downside? Plenty. Property unbilled sales in dwindling. Construction order book is dwindling as well. Although it is fair that getting MRT 2 package may boost its earnings visibility, lets not forget that there is a lead time between getting the project and billing your customers. And also, dont expect Gafang to record 15% margin from the new project. Expect Gadang profit to drop by at least 25% after 12 months. Since the market tends to anticipate events six months earlier, allow me to predict Gadang share price will start finding its true value in April or May 2017.

YiStock level is definitely higher than most i3 members here. His knowledge in accounting and an eye for opportunity is unmatched. I will be very surprised if he is not in corporate finance

Haha. This cpteh talk cock, pretend to be expert just to con hus students $$$.

What preparation? Didnt you started to gamble in the stock market after the crash in 2008?

I will ignore the vulgar remarks made by some users here. I guess gamblers can never buy class. Still awaiting i3 sifus here to share his analysis or rebut my points. I am very happy to discuss analysis.

Gadang is approaching the end of the trend. Many people are quoting its low PE as a reason to buy into Gadang big time. But investors are ignoring the red flags where the order book could not keep up with revenue. Gadang PE may be low but when the earnings are cut by halve in 2018, this stock is gonna correct. Gadang will still go up, thanks to the speculators who trend follow. Remember what the smart does early, the fool does in the end. Smart people are already trimming this position bit by bit.

The perks of being government servant is quite attractive without regard of rankings. If you are a low rank worker, there is a lot of privelleges. If you are a high rank worker, plenty of ways to eat money

In before cpteh shout crash and cut loss

Gadang is 50% property developer. Is Tambun, Huayang or Matrix PE high? When I analyze Gadang, I saw only a few known names. Now so many kacang puteh members also emerge. That can only mean one thing Gadang has become a retailer speculated/trend followigg stock. Correction is imminent from here.

Sell on strength. 50% of Gadang net profit comes from property developments sold during the hot years. Future property sales are unlikely to come online soon and margin is gonna be much lower. Gadang looks fully valued to me. In one or two years, its profit gonna crasg at least 25% with or without MRT 2 contracts.

Haha. He will reply you once Air Asia gap down. This CP Teh

Haha. Lose money again, Cpteh?

Remember investor B did a contra trade on a software company in the yesteryear

What are the chances that investor B is part of a syndicate?

Who is felicity?

Wah, the article ended with a cool quote. Thumbs up!

Fair enough

The name of brahmal reminds me of Masterskill. Look where is Masterskill now

As much as I respect Mr. Koon for his charitable deeds, he does not have much credibility left after one failed recommendation after another. i3 is an open platform, everybody have the rights to criticise one another. If Mr. Koon could not take it, he should leave

Jay, I think your concern about earnings being diluted in the future years is pretty myopic. When people look at Ekovest at the fundamental level, they see high PE and high debt. What they missed was the value behind Kesturi, construction arm and property arm as well as the potential of Duke 3. Perhaps why Ekovest is undervalued now may be caused by the big project at hand - Duke phase 3 where a significant of construction costs may be incurred. The beauty of investing in Ekovest right now is we all know Ekovest is undervalued and EPF had done the maths for us. The price which investors paying at the current price is 60% of kesturi. The key to profitting from this investment is up to the management actions to minimize the disparity between the price and value and investors to ride the wave.

Summoning @YiStock

Thanks wealth bro. Look forward to your part 3

I think it is important to know 1) The gross margins of Kesturi (before paying interests) 2) Operating costs of Duke highway (in % of revenue) 3) How much interests is Kesturi paying for the 1.7 billion sukuk facility (estimated at RM78 million per year?)

Do share the annual audited accounts of Kesturi. Ekovest does not reveal a lot about kesturi in its financial reports including its sukik coupon rate etc. I think having access to kesturi accounts will allow investors to gauge the true earning power of duke highway.

Wealth bro, can I have the link source of the audited accounts?

ROFL

Wizard bro, where did you find the toll revenue and profit under kesturi?

Cpteh has been preparing for market crash for many hears already la

Aiyah, this guy is pretending to be a guru predicting market crash lah. He told his bloggers his market is crashing but he is trading here and there without profit behind lah

Hello Cpteh. I thought you sold everything including your house, your furniture, your tuition centre, your kerepek business and wait for crash? Why are you saying you are in 50% cash? So were you conning your students all the while?

I thought you told everyone to sell everything and wait for crash?

LOL. This Cpteh come in and brag about earning few cents again

Ecoworld will retrace back to 1.2X in no time. EPF is selling this counter every day. It is difficult to go up. Property sentiment is poor as well. Unless Ecoworld can give dividends like UOA Development, if not it is hard to sustain the rally

lai liao lai liao

LOL

LOL

I agree with your take on reversion to mean

Rental vs monthly installment is not the right indicator dude. Our country interest rate is still at the higher end in the region. Do you know what is SG interest rate? Only 1%. Rental vs monthly installment tells you only the underlying rental demand of the asset at that point of time. Analyzing properties is just like analyzing oil stocks. You got to think about the replacement cost. If i have a house that costs rm500k to build and it can only be rented at rm500, does it mean the house price is going to crash? No.

The best asset class in malaysia is still properties which is historically proven. You can hold Nestle or Dutch Lady for 20 years or you can hold a Mont Kiara properties. After 20 years, you may see which asset has the better return.

Sos, not all houses are meant to have positive cashflow. Time and time again, history has suggested that properties is an inflation hedge asset. It is true that properties correlate to stocks. But back in 1998, i remember well located properties never dropped in price. There were no buyers during the crisis but anybody who held on to their properties have seen significant gains to date. Based on your example, the investor is bleeding cash. But in the long term, the capital appreciation from those properties would neutralize the cash flow losses.

Not talking to you calvin. Talking to sos

So you think stocks will crash?

YiStock is a growing dragon in my books. He has yet to achieve icon8 status but is certainly a good stock commentator.

In i3, I put icon8 as my top sifu. Icon sifu has made multiple spot on call on a few counters. Such consistency is very difficult to imitate.