Price moves sideways for sometimes can also mean there is some support at this level, provides us the time to collect slowly instead of all in 1 shot.

Thanks Niki for sharing your research and always helpful to many.

@Robert Water
Thank for your clarifications.

It is more assuring to stare at your own crystal balls even if someone can bang their hairy chests telling you potential Armada share price by next week. Kraken is not sinking yet but an FPSO with a transformer issue.

@ Robert Walter posting "

1. Transformers were running hot so people kept door open, and some posters peeled off the wall due to being warped by heat
2. There was an annoying buzzing sound and clicking, much louder than in the other electrical rooms
3. You could sense the sour 'transformer' smell closer to the units. By the vents of the transformer enclosure, you could nearly taste it, not just smell.
4. During pump switching smoke was observed
5. One transformer failed but nothing was done about it. 'One off event,' they said.
6. Eventually an operator expressed his concern about critical equipment health. Unit started to give trouble and malfunction warning light. Manager asked him what he was planning to do about it. And he said meeting was for productive discussion, not for complaining. The guy learnt to keep quiet.
Based on the above , we need big tummies to contain the worries of Bumi Armada's lack of update of Kraken hiccup .
Robert, can you please clarify where do you get the information of transformers situations ?
Thanks

Peter Lynch once wrote the ultimate success or failure of investment is not purely dependent on one's intelligence but the also the stomach to withstand the worries of the world long enough for the investment to succeed. The skittish investors no matter how intelligent always got flushed out the market by the brush beater of the doom. To me it is quite difficult to overcome the worries at times but very true and useful so far in Armada stock . I am not impressed by the ways Armada management handling the information flow to the investors on the latest Kraken hiccup so far. Either they willfully hold back the updates or they do not know how to handle it confidently. This is harmful to investors' confidence in Bumi Armada. Is this the agenda of the insider large shareholders for holding back updates so far and SEC should investigate ?

Add another batch @ 45 sens

market moving today

Niki, thanks for sharing the great news.

I understand there are 4 wholly owned and 3 jointly owned FPSOs in Bumi Armada fleet; though Kraken is important in the revenue generation contributing to about 30 % revenue but I cant imagine how a pump/transformer issue on Kraken can be deemed as a potential game over matter for Armada in the worst case scenario. Further more the transformer is accessible outside the well as I heard from this forum. Does it needs 6 months to replace a transformer ?

Thanks to I3 Investor management stopping the noisy Mouse from causing further nuisance in this forum. This forum is now back what it should be : Good information and opinions sharing instead of flooded by incessant insults among a few nonsense participants. Cheers!

History seems to repeat itself of Armada up and downs over the years; though it is frustrating to see the price dropped so suddenly but I do take some solace from my earlier " dividend aimed" disposals of about 45 % of my Armada total holding in batches with about 57 sens average . I did regret for selling a little too early when Armada eventually hit 72 sens weeks later. Now I am buying back in batches as Armada price dropped lately. It can be a little unnerving as the price keep dropping as its price further dropped after adding but it also means further opportunities to add further for a counter I see values in its business model and at such a cheap valuations. Its cash generation track records for the last 3 years is the cornerstone of my faith in Armada and with PE @ 3.5 , it is a steal. I am waiting for it to go up or down, either way I am excited. You can decide if this suits you. The market is panicking a little too much as it is swinging according to flow of the flocks.

Top up another 10 % versus my total holding of Armada @ 44 sens, this batch was parked waiting for the last 5 days. Will add more if it drops further to below 40 sens.

Can all please stop excessive unnecessary insulting arguments in this forum. We are here to share honest opinions to make money investing in Armada instead of attacking each other with childish statement. If you wish to argue on other counter please do it in the relevant forums. We cant destroy this forum with excessive flooding of such attacking and counter attacks among 2-4 participants. Please have some respects for each others.

I take this this hiccup that can happen as the inherent operational risks of an FPSO ; it is not the end of the Kraken nor Bumi Armada but possibly an opportunity to accumulate again. The market is probably panicking too much.

For any investor if a stock is deemed not worth investing , the person would stop investing and go somewhere else where there is money to be made instead of so busy keep posting his / her expert opinions so often how bad is the stock in questions. Although a different opinion is acceptable from time to time based on rationale explanations but not a repetitive nonsensical statements. One is either with bad motives behind these repetitive attempts to talk down a stock by spreading unfounded fears or some phycological needs for attentions, more so if the person appear in various forums doing the same. Yes, I choose to ignore such characters most of the time except annoyed the forum can be overwhelmed with rat shits all over the place.

John Chew used to talk nonsense a few years ago when Armada price was down he kept talking down Armada. He was told off many times one day Tsunami of Armada would sweep him up hanging on coconut trees. So when Armada reached 70 plus sens , we notice John Chew disappeared but emerged as Mouse on this chat again. This speaks volume of the nonsense talking John and then now Mickey Mouse. Remember when the rat is running across the streets making noise, the public would hit it hard. Just wait Armada recovers when the market Tsunami swings up again, Mickey Mouse suddenly found he is naked hanging up the tree to dry again. Meanwhile, we still buy ticket to go on board Armada for grand cruise.

Robert, thanks for your good information sharing and I find it succinct enough but not too complicated for me so far.

Thanks Mabel for exposing this nonsense Mickey Mouse was under another name of John Chew. ( “ John Chew” antagonised too many others then with the same non sensible postings. ) Just beware of anyone who needs to keep changing name to hide his unpopularity for speaking nonsense in any forum as less and less participants would heed what he has to say eventually.

No one can buy or sell at best market price all the time, market sentiments are weak hence Armada Kraken's hiccup may be interpreted more serious than if the market is in bull run. Too many people are sitting on the edge at the moment due to generally weak market sentiments. Sharks are lurking for people jumping off the boat.

Just accumulate in batches as the price fluctuates, as a means of averaging the risks

I added Armada this morning @ 48 sens . Thanks to those who contribute much insights on how the FPSO works and technical explanation of possible technical scenarios of the break downs. I am still convinced of the strong fundamentals of Armada and this incident is not going to sink the whole operations but part and parcel of oil and gas sector risks, one has to stomach it from time to time. Armada valuations is too low for its net operation cash flow for now at least,

Reply Mabel
" Great MM78 and Bon888! "
Trying to get some bargains when market is fearful but only at those counters I am familiar with their fundamentals. 😊 Good Luck to all who try.

Yes buy batch by batch and if aggressive at bigger volume at lower price. Not all in at once. Lessons learnt long time ago.

waiting to buy more if it dropped to 47 sens

All is not loss as Armada is taking the Kraken Shut in to do necessary maintenance as well; bought some @ 50 sens just now.

From the annual report FY 2022 , it seems Takaful is very aggressively growing the business. The profit before tax is better than FY 2021 but profit after tax is affected by extra tax by the one time Prosperity Tax

Armada could not afford to keep the money bleeding OSVs for the last few years, given its high debt. The impairments due to idled OSVs would have caused impairment each year. The idle OSV were becoming cancerous for the company before they were sold off. Armada could not have pared off the debt as fast if the OSVs were not sold off.

Armada is not as good as Hibiscus in making detailed information available to the investors but mainly in big paint brush styles. The later explains its operational and strategic information with far more details than Armada. This hinders the price supports for Armada.

Vincent8864 wrote "Just ignore him, you stop replying all his messages. Let him talk to himself. Skip reading all his posts"

I agree with you, Vincent , just ignore Jerichomy's non sensible comments and dont response at all, he may fade away like those behave the same here before.

Chanahmun77,
I totally agree it is not so straight forward for the board to decide dividend matter given it still have big bank loans to pay. I am more for Armada is finally allow to issue dividend once its accumulated losses /profit reserve become positive. At that juncture it may attract fund managers' interest hence may help to lift its market valuations better. I also see it is imperative for Armada continue reducing its debts given current world financial uncertainties to cut the risks of high finance costs and put itself in good position to fund next potential project without right issue. We can get some dividends sometimes through swing trades while hold our core holdings for final harvest at right PEs.

Hi chankahmun77,
Thanks for the clarifications. This clear up my thoughts on this matter. Chatgpt answer is incorrect then. So we may still need another good year profitability of Armada before it can reverse its accumulated losses to positive and allow the board to declare any dividend.

Got the answer from Chat GPT as below :
Yes, a KLSE (Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange) listed company with positive foreign exchange gain reserves but negative accumulated losses in the equity statement can still issue dividends. The decision to issue dividends ultimately rests with the company's board of directors, who will consider a variety of factors when making the decision, including the company's financial health, cash flow, and future growth prospects.

Positive foreign exchange gain reserves can be included in a company's reserves and can be used to pay dividends. Accumulated losses, on the other hand, represent negative retained earnings, which could limit the ability of the company to pay dividends. However, as mentioned earlier, the board of directors may still decide to issue dividends if they believe it is in the best interests of the company and its shareholders, even if the company has negative accumulated earnings.

It's important to note that issuing dividends when a company has negative retained earnings or accumulated losses may be viewed as a risky move by some investors, as it may suggest that the company is prioritizing short-term shareholder interests over long-term sustainability. Therefore, companies should exercise caution and consider all relevant factors before deciding to issue dividends

Bon 888, yes I got it. The RM 814 millions are further broken down on page 6 which shows the big part of the surplus is due to the foreign exchange reserve of RM 1428 Millions. If I understand correctly SEC rules prohibit any company giving dividend until its accumulated losses are eliminated. I am not a finance guy and would love to learn more here. Anyone here can provide opinion please ? Thanks in advance.

Hi Alenac, actually Ukraine is still having good relationship with China despite China is also having good relationship with Russia. So it neutral stance is an ideal position to mediate the conflict instead of USA though the later call the shot over Ukraine on the cease fires negotiation. China has not provided any war supplies to Russia so far though USA is trying to accuse China is supporting Russia to invade Ukraine. Ukraine President is asking China President Xi to visit Ukraine in his latest public statement. USA and Nato are under pressures economically to support the long drawn war in Ukraine hence there is still hope of cease fires. Economic realities are biting hard now on both Europe and USA, they may have to stop Ukraine war sooner than later hence if there is a soft landing for all parties (especially Europe). China has the capabilities to help Ukraine rebuilding process is also attractive for Zelenskyy to accept China as neutral party. I am hopeful .

Bon888, I cant find your mentioned reserves of RM 814 millions in the mentioned Dec Qr report ,. ( I am interested to know ) As for accumulated losses mentioned by me, it is stated on page 6 of the Dec 2022 Qr report. (UNAUDITED CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN EQUITY )

Bon 888, thanks for sharing your opinion on the reasonable PE we should dare to aspire for Armada. Market give Yinson's current PE 13.75 (Its last 5 years median PE is 17.56) hence Armada's current PE of 5.58 is definitely unjustifiably low. I am glad market has taken notice of Armada lately ; as said my earlier "dividend" type of selling/buying has provided some cash position to hold Armada longer for full harvesting when its PE goes beyond 10. It is a challenge resisting cashing out when one sees the potential risks of world economic crisis on the horizon. On the other hand, if China can help resolve Ukraine war it would restore world economic confidence as peace in Ukraine ( a big food producing country) would reduce inflationary pressures better than interest raisings inflationary fighting measure by various countries. This would help buy time for Armada to continue reducing its financial costs with it strong net operating cash. PE of 10 or even 15 for Armada is an achievable goal for many of us then, provided its long term FPSO contracts can also be extended whenever it is due for review. Next milestone to watch is when Armada's 766 Millon accumulated loss is fully eliminated with its next 12 months profit ; it is then in the position to give some dividend since its last dividend declared in FY 2015.

Hi Robert and the rest of the group.
I have been holding Armada since 2015 at various amounts, seen many ups and downs ( mostly downs) over the subsequent years. The last time it was beyond 80 sens was around May 2018 and when it reached the lowest price of 11 sens in March 2020 I was out of cash to buy more nor did I have the courage then. However I did not cash out at a loss despite great fears then and I am glad it is still my flagship holdings though I have cashed out some during the recent rallies to get some "dividends" Now I am ready to see it goes beyond 80 sens and maximize the returns for holding Armada for so long. My confidence in Armada is mainly derived from the long term business model of Armada, its last 4 years strong net operating cash flows ( more important than the reported profit ) hence able paying off huge bank loans plus the current MD has proven his leadership far better than his predecessor sorting out priorities and solf off the non preforming assets to raise more cash. I ask myself many times over do I dare to dream and wait till its price go beyond PE of 10 ? Is time running out due to pending potential USA induced world financial crisis? Can Armada business model stand up to the severe financial meltdown better than many other companies if and when world faced severe economic crisis ?
I have no answer for myself yet.
Nevertheless thanks to those who contributed positively to this chat groups over the years ( especially Nicki Cheong is most outstanding with fact findings and analysis ) On the other hands , it is quite frustrating to see some continues to harp doomsday sayings of Armada shares over the years in this chat group. I have seen them mostly come and gone eventually but some I suspect changed their names to reappear here again from time to time. To these group of people hopefully they can see it benefits no one except some short sellers (they themselves are ?) to scare off some of us. Let us keep our measured confidence and see better days ahead of Armada. Happy harvesting if not cruising. Bye to those who choose to stay at the ports continue shouting storms ahead.

Posted by Robert
MM78, with oil at 84 USD I expect BAB to reach 85 sens soon.
:-)

Look forward for it to go beyond 80 sens soon

Long overdue Armada rally !

Armada net operating cash flow is so strong at the moment, gearing ratio has remarkably been reduced to less than 1. Its FPSO operations are running well under current CEO tenure, the money loosing OSVs are literally sold off . I cant see much risk of huge hick ups. I am still keep about 60 % of my total holding of Armada from the peak holding in the last 8 years. Keep my fingers crossed Armada financial results in next few quarters would even better. One potential catalyst is for Armada to eliminate the still outstanding accumulated losses of RM 766 K ( see UNAUDITED CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CHANGES IN EQUITY on page 6 of Qtr 4 FY 22 report) before it is allowed to declare any dividend in future. As for market risk, I cannot see how much would its share price be affected should the USA Government's potential deficit crisis blow up sometime in Jue/July .

Indeed it is not easy to trade Armada for some profit as dividends while one can see the intrinsic values in Armada business, especially given its improving and stable profitability, better debt to equity ratio, strong operating cashflows these few years. Logically its share price should appreciate faster as its FPSO business is strong and steady except for the ever money loosing OSVs which was largely divested lately. It seems the market sentiments are a little cold and slow until lately. Adopting " 1 bird in the hands is better than 2 birds in the sky" approach is risking the possibility of missing the maximum price should its price never retrace each time I sell. I am learning if this would help to steadily increase the overall profitability investing in Armada instead of holding it completely. Crossing my fingers. Just to share. Please buy, hold or sell at your own pleasures.

Armada is my flagship in stock investment since I suffered great loss in Sapura Energy counter (depressing). Armada also provided the best return among my other stocks since 2015.The company has not given any dividend since 2016 hence I switched my strategy to partial trading of Armada shares after seeing its ups and downs swept clean my paper profits a few rounds. The last 2 years of partial trading have been rewarding for me and accounted for 74 % of my realized profit for this counter since 2015 making up for no dividend. I am still holding about 55 % of my peak holding of Armada shares after last the few weeks of selling as I could not resist the temptations of cashing in for about 56 % ROI in trading profit. Perhaps this also help to avert some of my fears that history may repeat itself again of Armada price volatility and divert some risk of over investing in this counter. Having said that I am still hoping to see Armada fully reaching PE of about 10 in a year or 2 for my remaining holding. Should its price retrace back to attractive level again, I may not resist adding back.

I have been holding Armada since 7 years ago and it is still at the top of my share investment portfolio at about 35- 40 % of my total invested values. Over the last few years I do trade about 1/4 to 1/3 portion my Armada shares holding from time to time to get some " dividends" as Armada price fluctuates periodically. My main aim is still seeing the Armada fully reflect its full values one day. Despite its attractive intrinsic values, Armada price is always below its book values too much and far too long. Despite Armada is paying off its debt with its strong cash for the last 4-5 years, its share price has no major break up beyond 60 sens since Sept 2018.
I suspect either it is due to Armada never pay dividend for the period mentioned or there are hidden hands suppressing the share price whenever it goes up to facilitate accumulation by big players at low price. Is there a risk of Armada to be taken private by its major shareholder when its financial situations improved further in future and its share price still being suppressed for this particular corporate exercise?

Any risk of Ananda may take it private one day if the big sharks continue to press it down to accumulate for a long time ?

Time for market to realize Armada is a steal at such low PE with strong cash flow cutting down its debt so swiftly under its new leadership?

Stronger USD Vs RM is good for Armada, hence good for Q 3 result

Armada needs to reward its investors with some dividend before more institutional buyers come in to support the low valuations. While we are happy to see the management keep paring down its debt aggressively with its strong net operating cash, the fund managers are less keen with stocks that have not paid dividend for a long time.

Hibisccus average oil producing cost is low enough to make good profit even oil price drops to $ 80/ barrel .Its newly purchased oil fields in Repsol deal , would boost its profitability in the foreseeable future. Coming quarterly report would be a confidence booster.

Armada is so undervalued now just base on its net operating cash flow alone , especially after it stopped bleeding by selling off the OSVs. Market sentiment swings to the wrong side too much on Armada.