@John Zhang,

TNB rely more on gas turbine power station than coal fired power stations to produce electricity. Isnt there a price adjustment mechanism to consumer whenever the coal or gas price changes substantially ?

@ Titan Mm78, go to tnb website. There is a investor deck they present every Q. Your can get some info there

Thanks Titan. Will check out for any interesting information there for the latest electrical demand statistics.

The closing of the Silverstone Tye factory is a sad story especially to me as I was the engineer who designed the whole factory steam system more than 30 years ago. Always feel nostalgic about the factory and stare at it with pride each time I drive past it. It’s closure is a case of Silver stone brand not selling well eventually. Not the end of manufacturing industry though but simply Toyo Tyre management recognises the factory has aged and hence shift the production to a more advance factory it seems. It is norm old factories will be replaced with more efficient one in manufacturing industries though. No big deal to TNB.

Electronic and electrical Manufacturing boomed lately and they are the big users of electricity. Check the price of technical stocks , you will know their business is growing fast.

I guess there is probability we may get some dividend after the quarterly results announcement base on Tenaga track record, keeping my finger cross,

I tried to find the latest electrical power consumption statistics in Malaysia to no avail,. Anybody has better source to find the data ?

@ Mywb, Iet us wait for the latest qrtly results and then see how Tenaga move in either direction.
I am buying base on its fundamental business values in medium term if not long term . Short term price movement is just part of the investment risks we all need to bear.. it would not collapse as this is a fundamentally needed service by all even in pandemic. Only war can destroy the business , so to speak.

Beware of those who is so diligently running down TNB here. One sensible explanation is this pessimism promoter is a short seller. Tenanga is a solid infrastructure heavy monopoly business. It cost a lot more money to build the same distribution networkt , for example , by any competitor if ever allowed by Government. At current pricing, it is a discount .

If one is familar with the power distribution business, one would understand how difficult it would reach TNB enviable infrastructure monopoly in addition toits power plant. I visited its Port Dickson power plant many times over during my business trips there and am quite impressed how wel it was managed then.
I would add more if it falls further below its NTA which is already at much deprecaited values given its history.

As for the tax, if I remember correctly , isnt the latest IRM ruling in favour of TNB tax liability ? tell me if I am wrong here.

Just wait for Q4 results.

DonSahong Hydropwer station is a cash cow with very high profit margin. The packaging division is exapanding fast.

@ Nikicheong Expecting write back for Kraken. Efficiency and performance in the final quarter of 2020 was at around 88%. Kraken was written down due to very poor efficiency in the initial two years.

Prepare to be positively surprised! :)
05/02/2021 1:42 PM

It would be a big booster if the impairment of Kraken is written back. Any idea how much is impairment so far ?

Tenaga price is below its book values now, and for utlilities company with monopoly on electricity distribution grid the valuations are cheap. One cant build the same business with this kind of valuations now. Buy regularly for long term potential appreciationns. Just ignore those negative baseless comments by some who may have different perspective or with hidden agenda. We are investing into a business we deeme defensive in nature and value for money in volatile time now and it is paying a decent dividend. Better than putting money in a fixed depositin the face of low interests era.Look at its historical PB ratio for last 5 years, now it is at the lowest !Even for those faint hearted , this is still a safe bet otherwise put your money in fixed depsoit and earn below 2 % per year !

Sustainable good oil price may translate to more OSV being chartered by oil companies so less chance of impairment while the FPSO makes money for the Company. Should the qtrt DEC makes more than RM 100 millions NOP, my guesstimate and hope is Armada price may hit 40 Cents . I am holding my breath for now...... come end Feb when quartery results are out ......

MM78 Armada business is not affected much by Malaysia CMCO or pandemic situations.
30/01/2021 10:42 AM

@Trading2019 Let's team up to sink it to make a point - lousy TP (0.65) recommended by HLG.
29/01/2021 3:16 PM

You want to sink Armada share price to make a point to HLG IB ? Why bother ? It does not change anything.


We want to defend the share investment values against short sellers who make money out of others’s misery by spreading fears among share investors who can’t see the real values of the business venture at least medium term wise .

The key is to understand the business progressively as one hold the share and constantly evaluates if our initial investment is sound or otherwise. I am seeing the turn around lights at the end of near 5 years waiting long tunnel , very long indeed. I trust it is not a train coming ...... but end of the tunnel.

Armada share price is premised upon its FPSO division remains steady to generate profitability and cashflow to pare down its debt. Its last few quarters track records on this is good, hence I am hopeful and confident it can.
The crude oil price does not have great impact on the FPSO dvision profitability except on the chartering of its offshore service vessels. FPSO Kraken has just undergone scheduled maintenance so its performance should be good to generate more profit in the Dec qtr and qtrs to come.There seems to have little information on other FPSOs performance in the Armada fleet and its impacts, I am curious.

It would be a confidence booster if the coming Dec 2020 qtr, Armada makes profit of about RM 120 million which means the whole year profit of about RM 100 millions = EPS 1.6 sens. Though the EPS may appear small but it is a turnaround result. Isn't share price the reflections of the expected next few quaters profitability and operating cash flow ?
These are my 2 cents thoughts on its valuations sharing with forumers here ....... lets us just wait for the confirming good news. I stand corrected by any wiser opinion from forumers here. Salute in adavnce to those with better findings, if any.

@UndukNgadau Top Management issue. Hopefully we'll get a new CEO/MD
22/12/2020 6:13 PM

What is the issue with top management ? Any information to share UndukNgadau ?

topped soem up @ 32.5 Sens

Armada’s operating cash flow is more than its quarterly profit , so it is healthy and able to meet its debt repayment as and when the quarterly profit is positive.

@i3lurker Mickey Mouse now use initials, still same feller
11/12/2020 10:25 AM

when a forumer keep switching names in a forum , it is ovious the same name's credibilty is too low to be useful to spread rumours and fear. So use another initial to start all over again.

Just watch out for some posting sounds the like or Mickey Mouse and before that John Chew, we can smell the fishy odours as their postings are selling rubbish day in day out.....

As you can see when Armada share price jump, the Mickey Mouse and the likes disppeared from this forum. Be confident of your own decision , just understand how the company perform and its financial management instead ; stop listening blindly to rumours.

Base on realsitic potental of EPS 6 sens in FY 2021 , TP at 60 sens and above is not unrealistic at 10 X PE. Just wait for the next 1-2 quarterly RM 100 millions profit, the share price would go up further in my opinion as market confidence of Armada would be grealy enhanced. My 2 sens here ....

Traders take profit every time it jumps a few sens, investors maximise profit base on undersanding the company valueshence able to resist temptations to sell early. No right and wrong approach up to individual appetite for early profit versus risk balance. I am holding it for now .....

Sounds exciting on the Vaccine report card , Mikekim. Tsunami is coming to wipe out the rats ...

There is no impact on the retained profit as the bonus issue does not involve with cash distribution , the total asset/ values of the Company is diluted by more shares issued after bonus shares given out. Theoretically, the share price would be divided accordingly and more available for market transactions. In the long run, it is easier for price appreciations as share liquidity is increased hence potentially more daily transactions due to lower price per lot . Profit per share is also diluted but it is up to the management to use the retained profit to maintain or not the dividend per share subsequent to the bonus shares issued.

I used to pay less attention to the cash flow than the P&L when evaluating a company performance but lately I learnt that positive operating cash flow is even more crucial . Impairment which does not reduce real cash flow , is therefore more of a “paper tiger “ and for accounting rules compliance as I see it., so it is not a real issue as long as Armada continues to pare down its loans with the positive operating cash flow each quarter.
I stand corrected by any financial accountant here.

I see some formers here are more nervous on the share price fluctuation each day as traders rather than evaluating the fundamental values of Armada hence would not be spooked easily by the daily changes of price , if I may say. The short sellers take this as opportunities to spread fears with negative and often unfounded claims trying to influence our decisions not to hold the shares to reach its rightful valuations.
I agree with Jojobaa , we should be not bother to respond to the repeated postings of rumblings by Mickey Mouse and the likes. Together we can help ourselves as
values seeking investors through our constant sharing of the assessment of Armada latest performance at this forum. Mikekim was generous sharing his brilliant evaluations of Armada then, I remember , before he went a way from here for a long while. I am glad he is back.

Hi Mikekim, welcome back. Good to hear from you.

@i3lurker ,The total outstanding Armada shares is 5.89 billions , how much can 11,000 shares panic selling can cause long term demage to its price ?
07/12/2020 10:09 AM

Thank you Jojobaa for your very detailed analysis of Armada. I learnt much from your assuring view points of the chance of ipairment of OMV assets as its asset values is something I am tring to determine. I largely concur with you the positive cashflow and paring down of the outstanding loansAS real keys to Armada's improving fianacial tURN around. Its long term FPSO contractual orders also provide future earning visibility. Good to share , Jojobaa

@ fluffyclouds @MM78 thanks for your comments / input.
05/12/2020 9:35 PM

I am learning as well, let us share our rationale as investors but not gripped by fears of share price fluctuations everyday.

@ Vanbasten Make MM78 CEO with company car -Lexus 570
05/12/2020 10:14 AM
Ha, I have already retired and am not qualified for such post in a Armada , though I have invested or stuck in this Armada shares for the last 5 years. You are generous , I can accept bicycle instead.....

Market forces are intelligent and big, it is likely to act eventually base on fundamentals of the company performance, though syndicates may play us and disturb the share valuations. From time to time . As Armada continues to have positive cash flow due to profitability and paring down the loans we should be confident of the share price elevations future.

Despite Armada continues to rise up 1 sen today ; though it did break the price barrier of 37 sens and hit 38.5 sens high , there are still a few forumers here sounds panicky . We cant expect the stock price rise up a few sens each day continously , isnt a little fluctuations normal in share trading ? Hold your fort, the fundamental would dictate the Armada share price and as long as oil is holding up then the risk of OSVs impairment is less in next few quaters. EPS 6 sens next finnacial year is not a far fecthed figure. These are my 2 sens...

@Mabel John Chew has changed his name to Mickey Mouse..so malu now to use John Chew name after being washed away by Armada Tsunami last year to Indian Ocean

HiHiHi...

Meow
04/12/2020 11:27 P

I was having the impression this Mickey Mouse sounds like the disappeared John Chew who was and now is again very hard working of spreading the fears with no logical explanations of his negative views of Armada. Same patterns and smelled very fishy just like before.Spot on Mabel.

@bclassinvest Party restart after 1 year. Don't leave first. More to come
04/12/2020 10:29 AM

Yes indeed, it is just starting to move again after so long. One catalyst we all be thankful is after the New CEO comeonboard, he seems to be more hands on and able to sort out the Kraken problems hence FPSO is producing profit better than before.Armada's positive cash flow and continously paring down its debt is assurinng.Just a few more quarters of profits, its shares market valuations would rise.

Perhaps Mabel's method of gradually cashig at certain points is her risk management style base on her experience we need to learn too .

It is indeed very tempting to cash in some pofits, after being trapped so long, to get some cash on hand for buying back but one never know what is most optimum balance between risks minimizing and profit maximizing ....

It is interesting to see the rising volumes and the Armada share price broke the resistence of 37 cents convincingly. Rats are running towards the top of the trees, Tsunami coming ......

There is no wrong and right TP for each of us as we all bought Armada at differet costs and has different appetitie for risks plus whether we are pure traders or long term values investors. Some says one bird in the hand is better than two birds in the sky ......while other says the best portion of the soup is the last remaining portion in the boilig pot.

I see it has the potential of reaching 60 sens base on its EPS potentail from FPSO the next few quaters provided there is no further impairments OSVs. Given the reboundining oil prices, chances for this further impairment risk could be lower than before. Anybody has any idea how much is the OSV assets within the Armada ?can we possibily get from Aramada as shareholders if no one knows except thhe management ?

Armada has suffered underpricing for long time, with company's fundamentals turning around the last 2 quarters sentimentals swing to more positive anticipating better quarterly results . Its share valuation is riding the tail winds. Short selling rats are running for cover, Tsunami is coming. current price is still beow my TP.

Short seller rats run for your life ! The fundamental Tsunami is coming. Those hesitate , still not too late to come onboard , see you at 60 cents targeted next destination.

@ Mabel, we certainy dont miss people ike JohnChew , Pearlwhite and the likes( cant remember many other names as they keep changing names eventually ) who were so keen to spread nonsense often based on unfounded "information" repeatingly. Remember it was as far fetch as " Kraken cant stand the rough seas and may sink where it operates" ? Ha !
Now we have another mouse making noises here. Let us just ignore it.

Just ignore the MickeyMouse trying to run around the streets,touting people to pay attention.We have seen this character before and they disappear when Tsunami hit. Buying shares is busying company long term fundamental.

@Mabel Yes MM78. This time Mabel is not too greedy since my holding cost is below 15. I started accumulating Armada Shares as early this year when there were so many Naysayers.

We should all learn from last year exercises. Remember? Let me refresh your memory.
Meow
25/11/2020 2:53 PM

Yes indeed I can remember and am still hurt too by the crash after it reached 55 sen as I did not cash in too. The question is if the it happened purely by the manipulation of operators or combined with indeed by Armada's poor Q4 2019 and Q1 2020 results as well ?

As long as Armada results can hold , the operators may not repeat the same tactic again I hope and crossing my fingures though.

I was sort of lying low ever from here for sometimes and now wonedr too what happen to Paktuah and his Redtroopers since.Missing Mikeim here aswell.Pehaps he is watching from a distance .......?

Enjoy your profit taking with my admirations while I am waiting my turn at higher TP due to higher costs and intrinsic values of Armada I estimated. Wish me luck for holding ...

Mabel can peraps tell us more what does it mean firing missile at 30sens, means start cashing in ? I would be surprised Mabel if that is the case , something you can teach us please ?

Armada's operating cash flow is strong enough to pay for its due loan payment, hence the Kenaga's negative comment on its debt is overblown..

Armada has the potential to make 6 sens EPSor more in Fy 2021, so TP of 10 X EPS = 60 sens or more is not unreasonable .As long as OSV division does not need much impairment as oil price holds, the current valuations is definitely low. That is my 2 sens....