Avengers Assemble!

I'm in support of doing a 'gamestop' on Morgan the Pirate...

I'm making a Blacklist of the our Analysts that had made calls on that rubber gloves profits are 'not sustainable'...from 2020-2021.
Do you guys remember the name of the lady analyst from Public Bank that made the first call way back in mid-year 2020?
Also, the names of the guy from McQuarry and the 2 chinese guys from US pirate, Morgan ?

Supermx results on Monday?
SuperMx vs Topglov - buy both!
Glove production : Supermx is 33% of TopGlov
Net Profit for next qtr : Supermx RM 1 B vs Topglov RM 3 B.
Only advantage is Supermx is ahead by 2 mths of showing better results each qtr.
Topglov expansion plan is 20% a year from 2020 to 2022,
SuperMx expansion plan is 35% a year from 2020 to 2022.
So, SuperMx will need more capex, and therefore less dividends to shareholders.

Daily covid new cases .... Malaysia new high at 3309 yesterday, New Jersey new high today at 9309, Spain new high at 38,869.......

Spain daily new cases have increased by 4X in a week......
.... Jan 4 was only 11,489 cases, Jan 13 ---> 38,869 cases

,¸¸,ø¤º°`°º¤ø,¸¸¸,ø¤º°`°º¤ø,¸¸,¸,ø¤º°`°º¤ø,¸¸,¸,ø¤º°`°º¤ø,¸¸,


The covid waves can roll and the winds (& IB Analysts) can blow ....
... it's just like the sea, it's never- ending....... it will be ENDEMIC.....

Coronavirus is expected to become endemic, and large-scale vaccinations likely won't carry on forever...........

Retail Glove Prices at Amazon.com :
1. Kirkland Signature nitrile gloves USD$50 per 1000pcs on March 2020
2. Kirkland Signature nitrile gloves USD$150 per 1000pcs on July 2020
3. Kirkland Signature nitrile gloves USD$180 per 1000pcs on Jan 2021

Go check!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/15/fda-staff-recommends-watching-for-bells-palsy-in-moderna-and-pfizer-vaccine-recipients.html

Suggest we vaccinate the JPM and MacQuarry analysts first since they do not have a balanced view....

Comments from Tradeview :The glove stocks share price movement has nothing to do with trends, fundamentals or earnings performance anymore. It comes down to only 1 important factor - **Confidence**.

Investor Confidence, Consumer Confidence, Business Confidence are all key driving forces that moves the machinery of the economy forward. In the stock market, investor confidence is the most important.

TSLimWC need to improve Investor Confidence fast .... start with a much higher dividend policy, reward shareholders with your treasury shares & consistent SBBs (to break the sharks' backs) .... move some glove machineries to countries(like Myammar) where there are plenty of cheap local labour and where they welcome investors with low taxes. Do not contribute to those who envy you or do not like your business, just take care your shareholders by rewarding them continously .... forget about producing more gloves, becoming the biggest in SEAsia and saving the world... as many do not appreciate what you try to do...

Fake names and fake news creating unwarranted issues for glove makers ....

This is an unshakeable fact and stats of demand n supply of gloves.....

From month of Apr to Oct, 1 M increase/mth of active or hospitalised cases

From months of Nov to Dec, 6 M increase/mth of active or hospitalised cases

SuperMx vs Harta vs Kossan
For qtr ending Sep 2020, all these 3 glove counters - SuperMx, Harta & Kossan command the same ASP of US$50/1K and forex USD 4.17 based on their qtr production.
Although SuperMx & Harta have about same production capacity and same revenue, Harta has lowest EPS and low margin because of more shrs issued and higher costs. Kossan has lower production capacity so EPS is 10% lower than Supermx

The Foreign Worker Dormitory contagion is a lesson that Malaysia could have learn from the lesson in Singapore.
TG do not need Twitter and Facebook accounts, but more important that their Managers should have inspected the "living quarters & toilets" of foreign workers every weekend to ensure that welfare of workers are taken care of. The name of the game is People, not Gloves. Look after the people and the people will do the same to gloves.
The Senior Mgt in charge of human resource, medical, health & saferty shud be sent to the frontline to work as temporary factory workers for their failure to execute. Heads must roll.
As a shareholder, I'm disappointed with the Mgt in charge.

With Covid tests now widely available, the government should remove quarantine.
UK is implementing the 5-day quarantine....

If one factory dorm gets infected, do you think other factory dorms of glovemakers are safe from infection? Just like Singapore 7 mths ago in Apr2020 when their foreign workers' dorms had 1000's of covid cases,in about 2-3 mths, factories will be back to normal full capacity....
So, instead of 3.3 B net profit in 2Q21, it will probably be about 3 B...
If you like vaccine, buy Pharma as it will still earn more than 1 M.....

The Foreign Worker Dormitory contagion lesson that Malaysia could have learn from Singapore.

Brace yourself for 2000-3000 covid cases a day.

The positive view is that TG foreign workers will emerge earlier as covid survivors as other foreign worker dorms for all other factories & contruction sites continues with this contagion

Why everyday you need to make imaginary revenue and profit figures for glovemakers ?
Let the glovemakers take care of their production and count the money.

You just take care of your sen(se) and the dollar will take care of itself ....

As more people are hospitalised, the use of gloves & PPE will increase accordingly. By end of 2020, the factor of increase in active cases will be 4X.
At 1 Jun 2020, 3 M cases active or hospitalised. Today, 9.5 M cases are active. By Jan 2021, there will be 12 M cases active ...... that's 4X

How can Bursa be more efficient when your Analysts continued to make the wrong calls ... it started with the lady from Public who said gloves are not sustainable months ago, then MacQuarry guy who said ASPs have peaked, followed by more Analysts who stand neutral on HK listing and even suggest there may be dilution of shares. All out to frighten small investors or just to pick their pockets, I wonder ?

TG listing in Singapore in 2016 did not involve the issue of new shares, so very likely the listing in Hong Kong Stock Exchange will also not involve the issue of new shares.

I expect It will be the same procedure.... a few hundred million shares from current shareholdings to be used to list in Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Most likely, some will come from Treasury shares and the rest of shares from some top 5-10 shareholders who intend to take advantage of arbitrage trading from the different bourses. As arbitrage fees are currently high, traders can only benefit if price differences are worth it. This HK listing will also determine which market is more efficient.

TG should keep accumulating its shares to boost up Treasury shares to 400 M shrs, then list it in Hong Kong SE for some gains.

I like it when TG hits RM10.80, so that Prem J of MacQuarry can swallow his foot for downgrading TG to RM 5.40 on 9 Sept. Analysts and their judgements are as competent as our MPs......like they know so much about the endgame of Covid-19
14/10/2020 3:25 PM

Whatever millions of remediation fees TG pays to compensate its employees on expenses incurred is following the good employer's code of ethics. Thumbs up!

TG has rewarded its shareholders, its Mgt & staff with share options, so why not reward all its employees. This is what a good business is about. This boss supports its share value.... he doesn't do insider trades.... All employees are his employees ... it doesn't matter whether he earns daily wages or comes from another country.

This boss lives up to his Code of Ethics that he hang on the wall at the main office.

When I went for for my first job interview, all applicants were paid all their travelling expenses and hotel stay by the recruiting employer. Later whenever you got transferred to another location, again we were paid disturbance or dis-location allowance becos there are expenses involved.

So, whenever there are expenses involved while on the job, every employee should be duly covered.

Some guys on I3 forum just constantly want to pick other people's pockets .... no difference from what they others are doing in the street.... contribute some sense (or sen)

If TG wants to work with Saudi Aramco on a new JV on glove or butadiene or both , and if it wants to list in HKSE, and if it also wants to be bigger than DBS and much later to be a global Fortune 500 company..... TG needs to clean up the immigrant labour issue, once and for all.

In the future, the new world order for immigrant workers working in foreign countries should be subjected to similar procedures and recruitment fees whether the worker is IT/Finance expatriate worker or a factory worker...

TopGlov vs Supermx
Their latest qtr results revealed quite similar ASP for gloves as I see:-

If Revenue=glove prodn for qtr x ASP of glove, then
Supermx's revenue of RM 930M = 6 B.gloves x RM155/ 1k
Topglov's revenue of RM 3100M = 20 B.gloves x RM155/1k
Both glovemakers sell gloves at ave RM 155 or USD$36/1k. x forex 4.30
Both glovemakers' profit margins are similarly close at 42%-43%
So, the advantage is 1 month ahead for Supermx as results announced on 10 Aug as compared to Topglove on 17 Sep .... that's ODM ?
It's all about the way you run your business .... how ethical is your Big Boss ?

If you need to ensure your country gets sufficient PPE (like gloves & masks), you need to be a board member of the Healthcare company.
To be board member, you need to hold substantial shareholdings....
If you are Aramco, you need not hesitate on such investment or the price

First, Brenda Smith of CBP banned TG products, then FGV and next going to ban SDP...
Now Trump contracted the covid virus.... with the Elections around the corner.
We had a state elections and our Malaysia covid cases doubled up.... can you imagine what will happen when you hold a nationwide Presidential Elections ?

Is it karma or what?
Maybe Winter is Coming ..........

USA banned FGV products becos of allegations of forced labour, withholding travel docs, human rights violations, etc. Another possible ban by CBP on Sime Darby plantations on similar issues.
Next... all furniture exports from Malaysia will also be detained... all Malaysian food products using foreign labour will be detained too in the USA.

Just wondering.... are foreign maids in this category of issues of withholding travel docs, deduction of recruitment fees & levy? Maybe Malaysian students in US will also be detained as their parents have foreign workers or maids...?

A signal to buy.... when MACD blue line crosses the Signal red line...

For 300,000 shrs, an extra cash of RM 25,000 from 8.5 sen dividend

EPS buys more shrs of TG ... step by step.
Do not be alarmed when you read TG directors sell their shares. They do so to raise cash to redeem their ESOS. If you intend to redeem 300,000 ESOS shrs @RM 1.63, it's quite a large sum

EPF just joined the glove party as a majority shareholder (5%). Most likely, it has to raise its stake much higher.

Imagine, if EPF is not in TGlove - one of Malaysia's World's Class (together with Palm Oil Mgt, Michelle Yeoh, Musang King durians) ... it's an embarrassment to the nation !

You need to put your eggs in the right basket... and be confident at what we are good at....
not like the goons who are all the time depreciating glove makers, instead of appreciating it.

France's hospitals at tipping point ... short of beds, health workers and PPE....
EU is next big market for glove sector.....

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/20/france-midst-second-wave-hospitals-tipping-point-warns-ae-union/

I went for a haircut at Willie's yesterday.
Willie changed a pair of nitrile gloves with each customer.
So, what do you think a health worker do each time that she takes a swab test?
For each swab test, she changed a pair of gloves.
Do you know Singapore conducted some 180,000 Covid-19 tests per million population?
Do you know that the global number of active or hospitalised cases increased by about 900,000 each month ?

The upcoming nitrile glove shortage could be way worse than the mask shortage.....

https://www.sfgate.com/shopping/article/what-do-do-about-upcoming-nitrile-glove-shortage-15557731.php

World Class products from Malaysia :-
1. Medical or rubber gloves
2. Palm oil plantations & mills
3. Musang King durians

All Malaysians must learn to appreciate them instead of trying to depreciate them ....

There will always be writers like Andy and Prem that have their own intentions to earn their living, whether it's ill or otherwise....

whatever it is ......... it is always about the Money!

STGT (Sri Trang Glove Thailand) 2nd qtr profit up 486% yoy.... this is not surprising!

“Despite a fluctuation in share price movement, rubber gloves are still growing on the demand side in case a vaccine for the coronavirus is successfully developed in the future, the analyst said.

"The company's profit is expected to grow by 100% until at least 2022 as the pre-order for rubber gloves will last until the second quarter of that year," the Phillip Securities analyst said.
...... this is interesting!

The rubber glove business and hopes for a vaccine are among the core equity investment strategies in the second half, thanks to surging demand and the domestic tourism stimulus package, say analysts..... this is working together!

When analysts are unable to think (a few work in Ambank Invest), they will recommend “Neutral”

AMbank analyst said ASPs of gloves will peak by 1Q21....no clear thinking here.
Prices can only peak when supply meets demand.... which one is growing faster?
The number of total active cases (hospitalised) of covid infection or the capacity growth of glove factories?
By end of 2020, the total Covid cases will be 50 M and the number of hospitalised cases at 16 M. The current hospitalised cases number is now 6.5 M and already demand exceeds supply by 2x.

In short, you do not have to sell your shrs in Topglov or Supermx ...

WHO said coronavirus pandemic could be over in the next 2 years...
WHO did not declare it as a pandemic until it affected 110 countries....
They didn't know 'when' to declare a pandemic, so how would they know 'when' it's going to stop?
WHO are they kidding?

South Korea was a success covid control story in March 2020...
Six months later, it now warns of a 'massive' coronavirus risk with cases rising in 17 cities and provinces across the nation...

So, WHO has the 'right answers' or the 'quick fixes' to the coronavirus pandemic ?


https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-pandemic-could-be-over-within-two-years-who-director-2020-8?op=1

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-23/jump-in-seoul-s-covid-19-cases-sparks-fear-of-nationwide-spread?srnd=premium-asia

Careplus buys hotel for workers. Now every room has aircon n attached bathroom.
Foreign workers living standard upgraded from culvert stay to hotel stay , so why Al-Jeera complaining? No hand soap n shampoo?

These drug counters was up past 2 days of July 21-22 on news of vaccine..... See what happens if no visibility of earnings growth.....
Pharmaniaga, DuoPharma, Apex Health

Careplus house their workers in a hotel in Senawang ... and when I stay in Senawang I stay in Airbnb. Yet, al-Jeeera says we don't look after our foreign workers .....

Maybe Topglov, Comfort, Supermx et al can up the ante on housing their workers in hotels too .... several range of old Hilton hotels are now on sale. This can certainly turn around the image of how Malaysia treats its foreign workers .... many millionaires are working in glove companies, now can you show us the money!

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/polish-gloves-maker-mercator-medical-sa-sees-3277-stock-rally

Even the poles can do it...

Whatever it is .... KYY still like the gLOVE STORY... no need to fret

I'm quite sure KYY has a lot more Comfort that he does not intend to sell yet otherwise his old story of buy&keep until RM 6-8 will fall flat and he may lose all credibility with all his followers.....
21/07/2020 4:27 PM

KYY just sold some of his Comfort and probably got some more left. Only sold RM 10 M value Comfort and RM 20M Supermx. He likes the triplets that Topglov is handing out. TG has been giving twins to shareholders every 3 yrs. All of them TG, Supermx, Kossan & Harta have given twins in 2019 but Comfort have not .... just wait

Dato Lau last sale transaction in June about RM 3.00
Dato Lau latest buy transaction in July about RM 3.67
Why does Dato know that we don't?
Covid, more glove demand, higher ASPs ? Everybody knows that.
You can guess as much as you can about the ASPs, but only Directors know the exact ASP for every month from July to December.....

Geary's comments are relevant.... "Clearly, it is not the kind of market for retailers. It’s only for those who are really experienced in trading and understand the dynamics of jumping in and out without getting hurt".

DATO' LAU (a substantial shareholder & ex-Strategic Biz Director of Leong Hup) acquired 460,000 shares on 17-Jul-2020. We know that.
He sells some at RM3.50 in June and now he buys some back at RM3.50 in July. He didn't get hurt jumping out and jumping in.

I know some of you didn't get hurt too jumping in 'n out. So, why do it ?
Hoping to be SuperTrader 'n SuperSpreader ?

US Customs detention of gloves is solely a TG issue, not a Malaysia issue. If human rights violation of immigrant labour is widespread nationally, then all Malaysia factories will close shop.

The big void of glove orders left by TG will likely spillover to the other players in Malaysia n Thailand.

On May 13, 2020 Supermax share price was higher than than Comfort by RM1.40.
Today, Supermax share price is higher than Comfort by RM13.00.
What has changed? A disposal glove is a disposal glove.
Nowadays, all can make gloves without pin holes.
Where is the differentiation of product use ?

My thoughts is that if a company increases its ASP so dramatically, whats stopping countries from sourcing cheaper glove from other companies.

In USA, you may have FDA regulations to comply, but for other countries, they just find the more affordable glove company.

Florida is so short of PPE and hospital beds.... do you think they care whether it's a Supermx glove or Comfort glove

There is little differentiation of products such nitrile medical gloves sold in the market.
My niece at Costco New Jeysey said she buys Kirkland Signature nitrile gloves (Made in Thailand) because it's cheaper and just as good. After all, they are disposal gloves.
So do not kid yourself that a pair of SuperMx or TopGlove nitriles are better than Comfort. All about the same, price matters. Thai or Malaysian gloves .... all can prevent contact infection.

It's about whose horse can catch up and run as well ...

If Polish glove factory can do it, Malaysia pun boleh !

Comfort only up 300% since Mar 13.... a long way to go to follow its peers.

Look at Mercator Medical SA, a Polish glove company with its glove factory in Thailand....
it's up 1000% from 10 to 119 PLN (Poland Zloty)
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/mrc?countrycode=pl