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2022-10-02 18:32 | Report Abuse
this 2.1 Billion that is causing the NTA to rise by RM 7 is not an imaginary figure....
but can really be made into realized PROFIT of 2.1 Billion in Q3 itself..
provided HY chose to close their hedging position at the futures for all of the 16 million barrels of gasoline they had hedged (they need not wait for the instruments to mature or wait for physical market transaction for the same barrels to take place)
But, HY would not do that, as their hedging instruments are not for making gains from speculative interest..but only to deliver consistent profit every qtr....
2022-10-02 18:31 | Report Abuse
To simplify, HY had hedged 16 million barrels of Gasoline with staggered maturity up till 2024 at USD 10/brl avg
as of Q2 closing 30/06/2022, the crack spread for gasoline had exploded to 31 USD/brl
the loss in hedging instruments if recognized going forward is as per below:
= 16 million barrels x ( 31 - 10) USD/brl
= 336 million USD ( MYR 1.5 billion at exch 4.5) net Liability!
as of Q3 closing 30/09/2022, the crack spread had collapsed to 1.65 USD/brl
the gain in hedging instruments if recognized going forward is as per below:
= 16 million barrels x ( 10 - 1.65) USD/brl
= 134 million USD ( MYR 614 billion at exch 4.6) net Asset!
So the change in net asset between Q2 and Q3 is 2.1 billion rise!
...........................................................
estimated higher as in Q2 itself they would have hedged the gasoline at higher margin than 10 USD/brl possibly raising the avg to 14USD/brl from market opportunity of 31 USD/brl during Q2
2022-10-02 18:31 | Report Abuse
when you hedge crack spread of gasoline say 12 million barrels in Q1, it means you buy 12 million barrels of crude oil at say 100 USD/brl and sell Gasoline 12 million barrels at 110 USD/brl in futures...with staggered maturity periods...say 2 million barrels per qtr
Now say after Q2 at end of 30th June, if your crack spread for gasoline is closed at 30 USD/brl with crude price 88 USD/brl and gasoline at 118 USD/brl, the OCI will report as per below:
For crude oil bought left at 10 million barrels:
..................................
You have a loss in fair value:
= 10 million barrels x ( 88 - 100 USD/brl
= (120 million USD)
The above is the money you lose when you sell back the crude bought in futures if the price maintains going forward
For gasoline you sold at 10 million barrels:
..................................
You have a loss in fair value:
= 10 million barrels x ( 110 - 118 USD/brl
= (80 million USD)
The above is the money you lose when you buy back the gasoline you sold earlier in futures if the price maintains going forward
The net change derivatives in OCI will be:
= (120) + (80)
= (200 million USD)....(1)
The above figure is exactly the same by just seeing the change in crack spread of gasoline as per below:
= 10 million barrels left to mature x (spot crack spread at end of reporting period - hedged crack spread)
= 10 million x ( 30 - 10 )
= (200 million USD)....(2)
........
(1) and (2) shows just by looking at the change in crack spread compared to hedged values, you can determine the change in liabilities...or net asset..
2022-10-02 18:31 | Report Abuse
1/12/2021
.........
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 11.210
Assets: RM 19,663,000
Liabilities: RM (187,074,000)
31/03/2022
..........
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 14.845
Assets: RM 45,186,000
Liabilities: RM (339,510,000)
30/06/2022
..........
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
change in mogas92 spread from Q1: 16.733
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM (1,751,332,000)
30/09/2022
...........
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 1.652
change in mogas92 spread between Q2 & Q1: 16.733
Change in net asset in OCI between Q2 & Q1:
[(1.751-0.261)-(0.339-0.045)] = 1.196 billion
change in mogas92 spread between Q3 & Q2: - 29.926
Thus, change in net asset between Q3 & Q2:
[(1.751-0.261) - (0.339-0.045)]*(29.926/16.733)
= 1.196*(29.926/16.733)
= 2.14 billion change (equivalent to RM 7)
OCI net asset in Q3 will be: (1.49 Billion) + 2.14 Billion
= 650 million
NTA will rise by RM 7 as a minimum in Q3
.........................................
2022-10-02 18:29 | Report Abuse
Malaysia Diesel output (MT):
Apr: 728,887
May: 886,360
June: 1,189,158
July: 1,237,929
(HY had maximized Diesel output as soon Gasoline crack dipped)
2022-10-02 17:37 | Report Abuse
this 2.1 Billion that is causing the NTA to rise by RM 7 is not an imaginary figure....
but can really be made into realized PROFIT of 2.1 Billion in Q3 itself..
provided HY chose to close their hedging position at the futures for all of the 16 million barrels of gasoline they had hedged (they need not wait for the instruments to mature or wait for physical market transaction for the same barrels to take place)
But, HY would not do that, as their hedging instruments are not for making gains from speculative interest..but only to deliver consistent profit every qtr....
2022-10-02 17:37 | Report Abuse
To simplify, HY had hedged 16 million barrels of Gasoline with staggered maturity up till 2024 at USD 10/brl avg
as of Q2 closing 30/06/2022, the crack spread for gasoline had exploded to 31 USD/brl
the loss in hedging instruments if recognized going forward is as per below:
= 16 million barrels x ( 31 - 10) USD/brl
= 336 million USD ( MYR 1.5 billion at exch 4.5) net Liability!
as of Q3 closing 30/09/2022, the crack spread had collapsed to 1.65 USD/brl
the gain in hedging instruments if recognized going forward is as per below:
= 16 million barrels x ( 10 - 1.65) USD/brl
= 134 million USD ( MYR 614 billion at exch 4.6) net Asset!
So the change in net asset between Q2 and Q3 is 2.1 billion rise!
...........................................................
estimated higher as in Q2 itself they would have hedged the gasoline at higher margin than 10 USD/brl possibly raising the avg to 14USD/brl from market opportunity of 31 USD/brl during Q2
2022-10-02 17:37 | Report Abuse
when you hedge crack spread of gasoline say 12 million barrels in Q1, it means you buy 12 million barrels of crude oil at say 100 USD/brl and sell Gasoline 12 million barrels at 110 USD/brl in futures...with staggered maturity periods...say 2 million barrels per qtr
Now say after Q2 at end of 30th June, if your crack spread for gasoline is closed at 30 USD/brl with crude price 88 USD/brl and gasoline at 118 USD/brl, the OCI will report as per below:
For crude oil bought left at 10 million barrels:
..................................
You have a loss in fair value:
= 10 million barrels x ( 88 - 100 USD/brl
= (120 million USD)
The above is the money you lose when you sell back the crude bought in futures if the price maintains going forward
For gasoline you sold at 10 million barrels:
..................................
You have a loss in fair value:
= 10 million barrels x ( 110 - 118 USD/brl
= (80 million USD)
The above is the money you lose when you buy back the gasoline you sold earlier in futures if the price maintains going forward
The net change derivatives in OCI will be:
= (120) + (80)
= (200 million USD)....(1)
The above figure is exactly the same by just seeing the change in crack spread of gasoline as per below:
= 10 million barrels left to mature x (spot crack spread at end of reporting period - hedged crack spread)
= 10 million x ( 30 - 10 )
= (200 million USD)....(2)
........
(1) and (2) shows just by looking at the change in crack spread compared to hedged values, you can determine the change in liabilities...or net asset..
2022-10-02 17:37 | Report Abuse
1/12/2021
.........
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 11.210
Assets: RM 19,663,000
Liabilities: RM (187,074,000)
31/03/2022
..........
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 14.845
Assets: RM 45,186,000
Liabilities: RM (339,510,000)
30/06/2022
..........
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
change in mogas92 spread from Q1: 16.733
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM (1,751,332,000)
30/09/2022
...........
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 1.652
change in mogas92 spread between Q2 & Q1: 16.733
Change in net asset in OCI between Q2 & Q1:
[(1.751-0.261)-(0.339-0.045)] = 1.196 billion
change in mogas92 spread between Q3 & Q2: - 29.926
Thus, change in net asset between Q3 & Q2:
[(1.751-0.261) - (0.339-0.045)]*(29.926/16.733)
= 1.196*(29.926/16.733)
= 2.14 billion change (equivalent to RM 7)
OCI net asset in Q3 will be: (1.49 Billion) + 2.14 Billion
= 650 million
NTA will rise by RM 7 as a minimum in Q3
.........................................
2022-10-02 12:53 | Report Abuse
nope, the net asset figure is a snapshot status at the end of qtr
it has changed from net debt of 336 million to net asset of 134 million, meaning it has received (or gained in value) for the amount 470 million between the period
2022-10-02 12:47 | Report Abuse
Q2 end , net asset value = -336 mil
Q3 end , net asset value = 134 mil
Change in net asset between Q3 & Q2 = 134 - (- 336 mil)
= 134 + 336
= 470 million USD
Posted by Ahahah > Oct 2, 2022 12:42 PM | Report Abuse
@ probability Q2- (336mil) and Q3- 134mil. There is still loss of (336)-134 = (202) mil.
2022-10-01 17:28 | Report Abuse
Other comprehensive income (OCI) for Q3 results:
.........................................
31/12/2021
Gasoil crack spread: USD 11.703
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 11.210
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 10.456
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 280,487,000
Assets: RM 19,663,000
Liabilities: RM (187,074,000)
31/03/2022
Gasoil crack spread: USD 33.169
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 14.845
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 22.131
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 291,009,000
Assets: RM 45,186,000
Liabilities: RM (339,510,000)
30/06/2022
Gasoil crack spread: USD 56.125
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 41.964
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 226,945,000
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM (1,751,332,000)
.....................
As of yesterday's closing:
30/09/2022
Gasoil crack spread: USD 43.661
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 1.652
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 26.560
Expect the net change in Asset (asset - liabilities) to balloon to: RM 2,300,000,000
OCI net asset will be: (1.5 Billion) + 2.3 Billion
= 800 million
NTA will rise by RM 7 as a minimum
(before even considering earnings for Q3)
2022-10-01 16:51 | Report Abuse
i meant: as it was reported in Q1
Posted by probability > Oct 1, 2022 4:18 PM | Report Abuse X
at least 90% of the hedging instruments has to be gasoline, else OCI figures cannot be as it was reported in Q2 as the diesel and jet fuel crack had exploded by then...
2022-09-30 22:03 | Report Abuse
very important information shared by sslee
to those who can understand, they will know how profound this is on refining margin when oil price is at this level compared to USD 50/brl in 2017
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/refining-crude-oil-inputs-and-outputs.php#:~:text=The%20total%20volume%20of%20products,volume%20is%20called%20processing%20gain.
Posted by Sslee > Sep 30, 2022 2:36 PM | Report Abuse
Refining output is larger than input
The total volume of products refineries produce (output) is greater than the volume of crude oil that refineries process (input) because most of the products they make have a lower density than the crude oil they process. This increase in volume is called processing gain. The average processing gain at U.S. refineries was about 6.2% in 2021. In 2021, U.S. refineries produced an average of about 45 gallons of refined products for every 42-gallon barrel of crude oil they refined.
2022-09-30 14:27 | Report Abuse
the above hedging is different than their long term maturity refining margin swap contracts
the RMSC has around 3.5 million barrels under short term maturity (for monthly closure along with physical market transaction) and balance with long term maturity based on opportunistic crack margin capture
2022-09-30 14:22 | Report Abuse
inventory and crude oil price changes has absolutely no effect on HY P&L statement..
explained many times, monthly hedging is done simultaneously on both crude and refined products and lags by a month on cash market (physical market) transaction
thats why the phenomenal margin of June will only be reflected in July with huge hedging gains...
2022-09-30 12:49 | Report Abuse
yup, for certain,
NTA will shoot up by RM 4 possibly (as it reverses all the loss in NTA earlier and goes into positive gain territory)
Posted by Sslee > Sep 30, 2022 12:46 PM | Report Abuse
I think in Q3 you will see some derivatives realised and unrealised gains on mogas refining margin swap contracts.
2022-09-30 12:40 | Report Abuse
MALAYSIA DATA: DIESEL output at 8-month high, LNG nears record!
9 Sep 2022
Quantum Commodity Intelligence – Malaysia’s output of diesel reached an eight-month high in July and LNG topped 3 million mt for only the second time on record, as producers responded to soaring prices for both products.
Diesel production grew 3.9% to 1.24 million tonnes, up around 2.5% on the year to its highest level since November 2021, according to data from the Malaysian Department of Statistics.
And liquified natural gas (LNG) ticked up 1.4% to just over 3 million tonnes for only the second time on record going back to 2009.
Both diesel and natural gas markets have tightened this year sending prices soaring, especially in Europe following the war in Ukraine.
Europe has been scrambling to find alternative supplies of natural gas after political tensions with its biggest supplier – Russia – ratcheted up after the invasion.
But Europe will have to compete with Asia for LNG supplies this winter.
Fuel oil was the only other oil product to increase in July, up 14.5% from June to 172,000mt.
Malaysia’s output of gasoline fell 2.6% to 580,000mt in July, down 3% from a year earlier.
Naphtha was 16% lower at 259,000mt, down 21% from last July.
And jet fuel production fell 11% to 243,000mt, down 34% from a year earlier.
https://www.qcintel.com/article/malaysia-data-diesel-output-at-8-month-high-lng-nears-record-8378.html
2022-09-30 12:34 | Report Abuse
@cactus, actually its possible if my deduction that they had only hedged gasoline and managed to maximize diesel yield by 3rd qtr (as it takes a little time tp switch their feed crude type, and plant process)
considering their cash flow hedge reserve figure, i would advocate on sticking to the below figure
Posted by cactus81 > Sep 30, 2022 12:05 PM | Report Abuse
@Probability, any opinion on 3rd quarter result? Is it possible 3rd result will be even higher than 2nd quarter due to hedging?
Q3 - Rock bottom EPS analysis
(using lowest possible average crack spread during the period - as if it was this level every single day of 90 days in a quarter)
.........................
Using extreme conservative scenario where 50% of HY throughput is hedged where they will only reflect hedge margin at extra low 10 USD/brl, with the balance free to capture market margin
1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 39/brl
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 29/brl
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/
3. Gasoline at 35% yield, cracks USD 7/brl
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/
3. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7/brl
Gross profit from (Hedged) portion:
..............................
= (10.7 million x 50%) x (10 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 240 million MYR .....(1)
Gross profit (UN-HEDGED) portion:
............................
Refining margin/brl:
= (0.46 x 39) + (0.07 x 29) + (0.35 x 7) + (0.12 x 7)
= (17.9 + 2.0 + 2.5 + 0.8)
= US $ 23.2 / brl
Gross profit:
= (10.7 million x 50%) x (23.2 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 558 million MYR ......(2)
Total gross profit (1) + (2)
= 240 + 558
= 798 million MYR
PBT = 718 million
PAT = 545 million
EPS = 1.81
2022-09-29 19:48 | Report Abuse
Refining margin is strengthening further, its possible diesel crack spread hit above 48 USD/brl by tomorrow
2022-09-29 19:47 | Report Abuse
HY refining margin is pegged with international pricing.
They are free to buy crude and sell refined products internationally.
That is why their 10 year POA agreement with Shell retails Malaysia is based on Means of platts Singapore (MOPS) where the margins are quoted in USD.
HY direct beneficiary of weakening MYR
2022-09-29 19:46 | Report Abuse
Diesel at 46% yield, at today's crack USD 46/brl
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/
Gross margin from Diesel alone
= (10.7 million barrels/qtr x 46% yield) x (46 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.64/USD)
= 1050 million MYR ....
PBT = 970 million
PAT = 737 million
EPS = 2.45
2022-09-29 19:46 | Report Abuse
Currently 1 USD = 4.64 MYR
.............
With such weakening of MYR against USD, HY would be save haven for the long term
you only need average 12 USD/brl margin going forward:
..........................................
Gross margin using above hypothetical margin (considering reversal to mean under long term scenario)
= (10.7 million barrels/qtr ) x (12 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.64/USD)
= 595 million MYR ....
PBT = 515 million
PAT = 391 million
EPS = 1.31 per qtr
2022-09-29 11:42 | Report Abuse
Diesel at 46% yield, at today's crack USD 46/brl
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/
Gross margin from Diesel alone
= (10.7 million barrels/qtr x 46% yield) x (46 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.64/USD)
= 1050 million MYR ....
PBT = 970 million
PAT = 737 million
EPS = 2.45
2022-09-29 11:41 | Report Abuse
Currently 1 USD = 4.64 MYR
.............
With such weakening of MYR against USD, HY would be save haven for the long term
you only need average 12 USD/brl margin going forward:
..........................................
Gross margin using above hypothetical margin (considering reversal to mean under long term scenario)
= (10.7 million barrels/qtr ) x (12 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.64/USD)
= 595 million MYR ....
PBT = 515 million
PAT = 391 million
EPS = 1.31 per qtr
2022-09-27 22:07 | Report Abuse
Sabotage warnings as damage appears on Baltic pipelines
Crude Oil Natural Gas
59min ago
A series of leaks on natural gas pipelines running from Russia to Europe under the Baltic Sea have stoked intrigue, with authorities warning damage spotted on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines appears consistent with sabotage.
A drop in pressure on the unopened Nord Stream 2 pipeline was first detected by Denmark's energy agency on Monday, with Swedish maritime officials reporting a series of leaks on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline several hours later.
Politicians and regulators indicated the damage appeared deliberate, stopping short of pointing fingers directly at Moscow.
German officials said it appeared the leak was the result of a "targeted attack" and that it "could not be excluded" that Russia was to blame.
Denmark leaned in a similar direction, with the head of the country's energy regulator telling local media that mechanical failure was due to a large hole rather than a crack, with an accident unlikely due to design specifications of the pipelines.
"It is too early to conclude yet, but it is an extraordinary situation… There are three leaks, and therefore it is difficult to imagine that it could be accidental," Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen said.
Russian officials took a similar line, with a Kremlin spokesperson telling local wires that "obviously the pipe has been damaged somehow. What the cause was, before the results of the investigation appear, no version can be excluded".
Adding to fears of sabotage, a series of unidentified drone and aircraft sightings have been made near Norway's North Sea oil and gas platforms in recent days, prompting authorities to make an unusual statement urging operators to remain vigilant.
2022-09-25 20:29 | Report Abuse
In 2017, the OIL PRICE was consistently below 52 USD/brl, but why did the margin improve and deliver exceptional earnings?
what matters is the CONSTRAINT ON THE REFINING CAPACITY not the oil price
thats why Diesel margin is spiking....
Lower oil price will drive demand for gasoline too later as more light vehicle owners decides to drive to work....
2022-09-25 20:24 | Report Abuse
Q3 - Rock bottom EPS analysis
(using lowest possible average crack spread during the period - as if it was this level every single day of 90 days in a quarter)
.........................
Using extreme conservative scenario where 50% of HY throughput is hedged where they will only reflect hedge margin at extra low 10 USD/brl, with the balance free to capture market margin
1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 39/brl
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 29/brl
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/
3. Gasoline at 35% yield, cracks USD 7/brl
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/
3. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7/brl
Gross profit from (Hedged) portion:
..............................
= (10.7 million x 50%) x (10 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 240 million MYR .....(1)
Gross profit (UN-HEDGED) portion:
............................
Refining margin/brl:
= (0.46 x 39) + (0.07 x 29) + (0.35 x 7) + (0.12 x 7)
= (17.9 + 2.0 + 2.5 + 0.8)
= US $ 23.2 / brl
Gross profit:
= (10.7 million x 50%) x (23.2 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 558 million MYR ......(2)
Total gross profit (1) + (2)
= 240 + 558
= 798 million MYR
PBT = 718 million
PAT = 545 million
EPS = 1.81
2022-09-25 20:24 | Report Abuse
one should use net liabilities on above derivation, but it still yields approximately same results
2022-09-25 20:24 | Report Abuse
using the below figures, one can determine that 90% of the hedging is done on gasoline.
HY was simply brilliant to capture the excellent margin of Diesel from market while had protected them self from downside slide on gasoline margin
...........
say x is the fraction of Gasoline that is hedged out of total barrels y , and ( 1 - x) is the faction of Diesel hedged, being the two major refined products
the change in liabilities between 31/12/2021 and 31/03/2022 is (339 - 187) = 152 million must be contributed by:
(Fraction of Gasoline hedged) * (change in crack spread of gasoline) * (total barrels of all products hedged) + (Fraction of Diesel hedged) * (change in crack spread of Diesel) * (total barrels of all products hedged)
x* (14.84 - 11.21)*y + (1-x)*(33.17-11.70)*y = 152 million...(1)
same way, the change in liabilities between 31/12/2021 and 30/06/2022 is (1751 - 187) = 1564 million must be contributed by:
x* (31.57 - 11.21)*y + (1-x)*(56.12-11.70)*y = 1564 million...(2)
Using Equation (1) & (2), you can determine x, and it comes to 0.90, i.e 90% of the barrels hedged are gasoline.
..........
31/12/2021
Gasoil crack spread: USD 11.703
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 11.210
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 10.456
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 280,487,000
Assets: RM 19,663,000
Liabilities: RM (187,074,000)
31/03/2022
Gasoil crack spread: USD 33.169
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 14.845
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 22.131
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 291,009,000
Assets: RM 45,186,000
Liabilities: RM (339,510,000)
30/0620/22
Gasoil crack spread: USD 56.125
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 41.964
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 226,945,000
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM (1,751,332,000)
2022-09-25 18:47 | Report Abuse
using the below figures, one can determine that 90% of the hedging is done on gasoline.
HY was simply brilliant to capture the excellent margin of Diesel from market while had protected them self from downside slide on gasoline margin
...........
say x is the fraction gasoline that is hedged out of total barrels y , and ( 1 - x) is the faction of diesel hedged being the two major refined products
the change in liabilities between 31/12/2021 and 31/03/2022 is (339 - 187) = 152 million must be contributed by:
x* (14.84 - 11.21)*y + (1-x)*(33.17-11.70)*y = 152 million...(1)
same way, the change in liabilities between 31/12/2021 and 30/06/2022 is (1751 - 187) = 1564 million must be contributed by:
x* (31.57 - 11.21)*y + (1-x)*(56.12-11.70)*y = 1564 million...(2)
Using Equation (1) & (2), you can determine x, and it comes to 0.90, i.e 90% of the barrels hedged are gasoline.
..........
31/12/2021
Gasoil crack spread: USD 11.703
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 11.210
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 10.456
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 280,487,000
Assets: RM 19,663,000
Liabilities: RM (187,074,000)
31/03/2022
Gasoil crack spread: USD 33.169
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 14.845
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 22.131
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 291,009,000
Assets: RM 45,186,000
Liabilities: RM (339,510,000)
30/0620/22
Gasoil crack spread: USD 56.125
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 41.964
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 226,945,000
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM (1,751,332,000)
2022-09-25 17:16 | Report Abuse
once Q3 results out, i3investors would be able to see through HY like an x-ray...
all speculators can simply shut the fcuk up permanently after that
Posted by Sslee > Sep 25, 2022 7:49 AM | Report Abuse
Dear King_trader_shadow,
Another week to go before end of Sept and I am sure HRC Q3 will be another very profitable quarter.
Mamy people misunderstood HRC Refining margin swap contracts and keep repeating false alarm that q2 reported unrealised loss of (assets- liabilities) of over 1.4 billion will be realised in q3 without giving a thought that unrealised loss is based on 30/6/2022 and most likely the refining margin swaps contracts is for maybe over 12 months:
On 30/06/22
Gasoil crack spread: USD 56.125
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 41.964
On HRC share price.
"In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
“Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay rational/solvent."
I hold some HRC, C24 and C26. My C24 almost free for me as I sold part of it at RM 0.20 to get back my capital hence I can afford to wait for q3 and q4 result.
As for you you need to decide for yourself what is best for you.
By end of Sept 2022, you are free to fill in Gasoil, Mogas92, Jet-fuel crack spread and make your guesstimate what will be Refining margin assets and liabilities for Q3 end 30/09/22.
31/12/2021
Gasoil crack spread: USD 11.703
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 11.210
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 10.456
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 280,487,000
Assets: RM 19,663,000
Liabilities: RM (187,074,000)
31/03/2022
Gasoil crack spread: USD 33.169
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 14.845
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 22.131
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 291,009,000
Assets: RM 45,186,000
Liabilities: RM (339,510,000)
30/0620/22
Gasoil crack spread: USD 56.125
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 31.578
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD 41.964
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD 226,945,000
Assets: RM 261,065,000
Liabilities: RM (1,751,332,000)
30/09/2022
Gasoil crack spread: USD___
Mogas92 crack spread: USD___
Jet-fuel crack spread: USD___
Refining margin swap contracts Notional value: USD___
Assets: RM___
Liabilities: RM_____
2022-09-25 15:02 | Report Abuse
MALAYSIA DATA: DIESEL output at 8-month high, LNG nears record!
9 Sep 2022
Quantum Commodity Intelligence – Malaysia’s output of diesel reached an eight-month high in July and LNG topped 3 million mt for only the second time on record, as producers responded to soaring prices for both products.
Diesel production grew 3.9% to 1.24 million tonnes, up around 2.5% on the year to its highest level since November 2021, according to data from the Malaysian Department of Statistics.
And liquified natural gas (LNG) ticked up 1.4% to just over 3 million tonnes for only the second time on record going back to 2009.
Both diesel and natural gas markets have tightened this year sending prices soaring, especially in Europe following the war in Ukraine.
..............
Diesel at 46% yield, at today's crack USD 44.9/brl
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/
Gross margin from Diesel alone
= (10.7 million barrels/qtr x 46% yield) x (44.9 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.55/USD)
= 1005 million MYR ....
PBT = 925 million
PAT = 703 million
EPS = 2.34
2022-09-25 15:01 | Report Abuse
Currently 1 USD = 4.57 MYR
.............
With such weakening of MYR against USD, seriously HY would be save haven for the long term
you only need average 12.7 USD/brl margin:
..........................................
Gross margin using above hypothetical margin (considering reversal to mean under long term scenario)
= (10.7 million barrels/qtr ) x (12.7 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.57/USD)
= 621 million MYR ....
PBT = 541 million
PAT = 411 million
EPS = 1.37 per qtr
2022-09-25 15:01 | Report Abuse
the fundamental issue that Fed is tackling is - inflation
1) what is the root cause of inflation?
It should be obvious that its the high oil price..
2) why is oil price high while demand is low?
its because oil producers do not want to increase output and reduce price especially saudi who wants to benefit on its only income source using present opportunity despite US persuasion'
so, eventually the Saudi has to give in....i.e increase production / reduce price..
there is a plan for russian oil price cap too to help (this could be a big game changer)
3) what happens when oil price comes down?
increase pressure for higher utilization at the refinery to meet higher demand for gasoline
refinery margin would strengthen
Posted by Vicky > Sep 25, 2022 9:49 AM | Report Abuse
As mentioned earlier Fed continuation to increase interest rate will slash economy growth. Oil utilisation will also reduce perhaps down to USD80/barrel or more. Even Saudis or Russia wants to maintain USD90 & above in not true. The demand is less. They produce less as well to maintain price but in terms of volume they are unable to break even. How long they can reduce volume ? Dr. Doom predicted it will be a long recession as inflations are 40 years high. So reduce your oil portfolio and spread to customer staples where even recession customer still need to use. Do not be carried away by so-called unqualified gurus. Save your money and prepare to re-enter during market massive slump. Oil once a while will rebound a bit but it is time to reduce portfolios. Check history of oil prices during recession. Tqvm
2022-09-25 13:59 | Report Abuse
its a one time event where the increase in profit from gross margin in a single qtr easily offsets the loss on derivatives
while rise in profit from gross margin is recurring every single qtr
Posted by gemfinder > Sep 25, 2022 1:57 PM | Report Abuse
Hy a lot of loans in usd... sure kena
2022-09-25 13:15 | Report Abuse
Can Europe replace oil imports from Russia?
The fact that a large share of Europe’s crude oil imports are by ship rather than pipeline means that in principle, replacing Russian oil will be easier than replacing Russian gas. However, three major bottlenecks should be considered:
i) Intra-European oil infrastructure: if Russian oil supplies stop, it will be challenging to re-route crude oil and oil products inside the EU. The infrastructure is designed for east to west flows, and moving crude oil and products eastwards might entail abnormal movements of crude, including via rail, truck and river barge.
ii) Refineries: certain European refineries are optimised to use Russian oil and will be less efficient if producing with a different quality of crude. Iraqi and Iranian crude come closest to Russian crude. Particularly vulnerable are six large refineries along the Druzhba pipeline (in Poland, Germany, Czechia, Austria, Hungary and Slovakia). In 2019, these refiners were subject to a stress test as flows were disrupted because of contamination of oil. They passed the test using strategic reserves, crude stored onsite and re-routed seaborne deliveries. But these outages lasted only two months. If it is not possible to feed these refineries, slack will have to be taken up in alternative refineries to meet final product demand. While port refineries are still vulnerable to a drop from such a large supplier, they are typically better placed to: a) accept different crude types, and b) accept consignements from new suppliers.
iii) Replacing Russian refining capacity: beyond crude oil supply, the EU must also consider replacing Russian refining capacity that produces diesel, naphtha and fuel oil. European refiners could try to compensate for this by increasing refinery throughput. To replace lost Russian diesel supply, for example, European refineries would have to raise runs by about 10 percentage points, taking them to almost 90% of total capacity of 15-16 mb/d. It would be the highest utilisation rate this century.
2022-09-25 02:51 | Report Abuse
my simple question & guidance:
1) what made you buy HY in the first place? and what has changed now for you to seek advise now if to hold or not
if the thesis behind buying remains the same then just hold on, else dispose
i think you should hold on to HY as long as russian oil restriction is in place, but its your choice at the end
2) why do you think a person wants to bash u? LOL...
I think none of the promoters wants to bash anyone here as long as they justify their opinion
in fact none of the promoters here talks about share price movement but mostly on earnings only
so, is your opinion on earnings have changed now? If not...then no one is going to bash u...
2022-09-24 18:52 | Report Abuse
Amazing...Q3 may double up the dividend.
Posted by Sslee > Sep 24, 2022 9:34 AM | Report Abuse
WTI USD 78.74 per barrel
Brent crude USD 86.71 per barrel
LOW SULPHUR GASOIL CRACK SPREAD (1000MT) FINANCIAL FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)NYMEX
45.971
D
USD
−0.399
(−0.86%)
With cheaper crude oil price but diesel crack spread at USD 45.971 per barrel is that bad news for HRC?
2022-09-24 18:51 | Report Abuse
Currently 1 USD = 4.57 MYR
.............
With such weakening of MYR against USD, seriously HY would be save haven for the long term
you only need average 12.7 USD/brl margin:
..........................................
Gross margin using above hypothetical margin (considering reversal to mean under long term scenario)
= (10.7 million barrels/qtr ) x (12.7 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.57/USD)
= 621 million MYR ....
PBT = 541 million
PAT = 411 million
EPS = 1.37 per qtr
2022-09-24 18:48 | Report Abuse
MALAYSIA DATA: DIESEL output at 8-month high, LNG nears record!
9 Sep 2022
Quantum Commodity Intelligence – Malaysia’s output of diesel reached an eight-month high in July and LNG topped 3 million mt for only the second time on record, as producers responded to soaring prices for both products.
Diesel production grew 3.9% to 1.24 million tonnes, up around 2.5% on the year to its highest level since November 2021, according to data from the Malaysian Department of Statistics.
And liquified natural gas (LNG) ticked up 1.4% to just over 3 million tonnes for only the second time on record going back to 2009.
Both diesel and natural gas markets have tightened this year sending prices soaring, especially in Europe following the war in Ukraine.
..............
Diesel at 46% yield, at today's crack USD 44.9/brl
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/
Gross margin from Diesel alone
= (10.7 million barrels/qtr x 46% yield) x (44.9 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.55/USD)
= 1005 million MYR ....
PBT = 925 million
PAT = 703 million
EPS = 2.34
2022-09-24 12:58 | Report Abuse
if your petrol price is half of what it used to be, tendency is higher to drive and make a long trip or got to office instead of working from home..
especially if you are outside malaysia...these countries feels the pinch unlike malaysia who is subsidized
2022-09-24 12:55 | Report Abuse
yes indeed, higher demand --> greater crack spread
Posted by UlarSawa > Sep 24, 2022 12:54 PM | Report Abuse
Not everything is about crackspread meh. Haiyoh. Correct?
2022-09-24 12:27 | Report Abuse
LOWER the OIL PRICE ---->> HIGHER the DEMAND for refined products
GREATER the REFINERY MARGIN
simple common sense..
2022-09-24 12:10 | Report Abuse
MALAYSIA DATA: DIESEL output at 8-month high, LNG nears record!
9 Sep 2022
Quantum Commodity Intelligence – Malaysia’s output of diesel reached an eight-month high in July and LNG topped 3 million mt for only the second time on record, as producers responded to soaring prices for both products.
Diesel production grew 3.9% to 1.24 million tonnes, up around 2.5% on the year to its highest level since November 2021, according to data from the Malaysian Department of Statistics.
And liquified natural gas (LNG) ticked up 1.4% to just over 3 million tonnes for only the second time on record going back to 2009.
Both diesel and natural gas markets have tightened this year sending prices soaring, especially in Europe following the war in Ukraine.
..............
Diesel at 46% yield, at today's crack USD 44.9/brl
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/
Gross margin from Diesel alone
= (10.7 million barrels/qtr x 46% yield) x (44.9 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.55/USD)
= 1005 million MYR ....
PBT = 925 million
PAT = 703 million
EPS = 2.34
2022-09-24 12:06 | Report Abuse
Amazing...Q3 may double up the dividend.
Posted by Sslee > Sep 24, 2022 9:34 AM | Report Abuse
WTI USD 78.74 per barrel
Brent crude USD 86.71 per barrel
LOW SULPHUR GASOIL CRACK SPREAD (1000MT) FINANCIAL FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)NYMEX
45.971
D
USD
−0.399
(−0.86%)
With cheaper crude oil price but diesel crack spread at USD 45.971 per barrel is that bad news for HRC?
2022-09-23 23:14 | Report Abuse
This is a very important news that enable us to ascertain HY is responsive enough with the market changes and had maximized their Diesel yield while reducing Gasoline when crack spread for these had gone on opposite directions.
Currently 1 USD = 4.57 MYR
.............
With such weakening of MYR against USD, seriously HY would be save haven for the long term
you only need average 12.7 USD/brl margin:
..........................................
Gross margin using above hypothetical margin (reversal to mean long term scenario)
= (10.7 million barrels/qtr ) x (12.7 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.57/USD)
= 621 million MYR ....
PBT = 541 million
PAT = 411 million
EPS = 1.37
Posted by probability > Sep 23, 2022 5:07 PM | Report Abuse X
MALAYSIA DATA: DIESEL output at 8-month high, LNG nears record
2022-09-23 22:49 | Report Abuse
dont get confused with derivative fair value changes thats get reported in OCI as one time effects with recurring gain from currency strengths
10% rise in gross profit due strengthening USD, easily wipes out this derivative effect in a single quarter
and the gross profit is a permanent recurring event
need some common sense before you open your mouth
Posted by qqq3333 > Sep 23, 2022 10:33 PM | Report Abuse
by kebling98 > 20 minutes ago | Report Abuse
If you read annual report, they mentioned strong USD is not good to profit. Don't simply talk to favour your interestlah
==============
lol.............the AR says 10% rise in USD results in 130 million rgt loss in P/l...................note 4............. goes to show rubbish in rubbish out. .................... outsider know more than the Company/ the CFo eh?
2022-09-23 22:02 | Report Abuse
yes, its good for those who are short-sighted, traders, trend followers and the uninformed to sell cheap to those who grasp what is being said
you comeback when the trend changes if the informed sells you cheap later
Posted by kebling98 > Sep 23, 2022 9:56 PM | Report Abuse
Haiyoh market sentiment so bad mah. Share price sure down lah. Q3 profit maybe so good also useless lah. No need promote everyday lah. What data also useless lah. Is downtrend! Downtrend!
Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING COMPANY BERHAD
2022-10-02 18:32 | Report Abuse
Guys, Diesel output in 3rd qtr of 2022 in Malaysia is confirmed to be 50% higher than in Q2
you can expect Q3 results to be truly explosive
...............................................
MALAYSIA DATA: Seasonal slowdown sees Apr diesel output drop 40%
10 Jun 2022
Quantum Commodity Intelligence - Seasonal maintenance saw a big drop in diesel production in Malaysia, falling almost 40% over the month as gasoline output jumped around 10%, according to monthly trade ministry data published Friday.
Diesel output fell 39.4% over the month to just 728,886 mt, although that drop-off is in line with seasonal slowdown typically seen in April with output up 10.5% versus 2021 but still down 28.7% compared to 2019.
...........
MALAYSIA DATA: Diesel output at 8-month high, LNG nears record
9 Sep 2022
Malaysia’s output of diesel reached an eight-month high in July and LNG topped 3 million mt for only the second time on record, as producers responded to soaring prices for both products.
Diesel production grew 3.9% to 1.24 million tonnes, up around 2.5% on the year to its highest level since November 2021, according to data from the Malaysian Department of Statistics.
..............
1,240.000 / 728,886
= 1.70
70% higher Diesel output in July 22' compared to Apr 22'