Probability is a measure of 'likeliness' that an event will occur - there are no 100% certainty.
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2022-11-24 18:57 | Report Abuse
simple rock bottom EPS derivation for HY going forward:
........................................
Diesel & Jet Fuel combined yield (46% Diesel + 7% Jet Fuel) of 53 %,
lets conservatively use: 50%
Diesel & Jet Fuel crack assumed averages going forward 30 USD/brl (not difficult considering it had averaged 43 USD/brl last 6 months)
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/
Gross margin from Diesel & Jet Fuel alone:
= (10.5 million barrels/qtr x 50% yield) x (30 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.50/USD)
= 708 million MYR ....
PBT = 628 million
PAT = 477 million
EPS = 1.59
..........
The above is assuming zero contribution from Gasoline which they had hedged at least 18 million barrels at about 10 USD/brl (good for 4 quarters output, i.e at 3.6 million barrels gasoline per qtr at 35% yield).
HY also hedges their inventory to protect themself from any changes to oil price. This can be seen by their Q1 results which was not helped by the rise in Crude oil price.
This is the advantage HY has over other refineries like Petron while having almost zero output of Fuel Oil as a complex refinery (Fuel oil is at negative 31 USD/brl crack spread)
2022-11-21 21:26 | Report Abuse
@i3lurker, thanks for the details
2022-11-21 20:25 | Report Abuse
@Bob, 8% refining gain means.... for 10.5 million barrel sales volume per qtr, they needed to process only 9.7 million barrel of crude oil
you do the maths, what will be the gross profit they make even with average product margin of 1 USD/brl (crack spread of 1 USD/brl against crude) when crude oil price is 80 USD/brl
2022-11-21 19:53 | Report Abuse
HY refined oil output is higher than crude oil processed. Below is the last 2 annual report information before they stopped disclosing this.
Imagine the profit they make at current high crude oil price when output is higher than input (refinery processing gain).
2012 annual report Page 52:
.................
Revenue and Gross Margin
In 2012, your Company recorded a 29 per cent increase in sales volume
which resulted in a 35 per cent year-onyear revenue growth to RM15 billion.
Your Company sold 40 million barrels of products with a yield of
8 per cent over the 37 million barrels of crude processed.
2013 annual report Page 12:
.................
Revenue and Gross Margin
Your Company registered RM14.7 billion of revenue in 2013 and this is
lower by 3 per cent compared to year 2012 of RM15.1 billion mainly due to
lower average product prices. In 2013, total volume sold reduced by 0.2 million barrels to 40 million barrels of products.
The refinery processed 37.1 million barrels of crude and with a refinery
yield of 8 per cent.
2022-11-20 14:56 | Report Abuse
there is only two enemy...PAS and corruption...
2022-11-20 14:54 | Report Abuse
fcuk you religion and racial advocacy..for your own short term political interest..
you are just dust n bones at the end..simple fact all of us deny
you are not going to be reborn as your childrens with same race and religion...
live like water or chose to be a rock
2022-11-20 14:51 | Report Abuse
MCA and MIC should have the balls now tp voice or never....
else dont advocate on a losing battle for own short term interest
ask all chinese and indian to convert to islam or migrate.. (i totally support this)
simple as that
2022-11-20 13:46 | Report Abuse
its time for MCA and MIC to put a stand to UMNO....to join PH or withdraw from the BN coalition
2022-11-20 13:44 | Report Abuse
only reason malaysia has not become like afghanistan or pakistan...economy is still in goodshape with oil ressrves..
2022-11-20 13:42 | Report Abuse
yes..it would have take over the grassroot....root cause of all issues to begin with
Posted by Sslee > Nov 20, 2022 1:41 PM | Report Abuse
Once PAS take over minister of Education then its gameover for Malaysia.
2022-11-20 11:32 | Report Abuse
so then...what business has future in Malaysia?
at least HY is an international business located in Malaysia
2022-11-20 11:30 | Report Abuse
LOL...legalizing LSD would be better as will provide greater tolerance to multireligious and multiracial country
Posted by Sslee > Nov 20, 2022 11:20 AM | Report Abuse
The cure or solution to solve Rakyat suffering is legalised ketum. So that everyone can feel heaven from earth.
2022-11-19 14:24 | Report Abuse
BN top head confirmed barbarian ma...
Posted by UlarSawa > Nov 19, 2022 2:20 PM | Report Abuse
Ular not a weatherman also cakap ular emotional kah. You see PH supporter barbarian or not. Haiyoh. Correct?
2022-11-19 14:17 | Report Abuse
dont be emotional ular...
Posted by UlarSawa > Nov 19, 2022 1:24 PM | Report Abuse
Ular not weatherman leh. Haiyoh. Correct?
2022-11-19 13:15 | Report Abuse
yes, you are stating what will happen...i am stating what should happen..
different interest and arguments here
Posted by UlarSawa > Nov 19, 2022 1:13 PM | Report Abuse
To you is National Issue first and you can win all the Urban seats but you cant win all the rural seats as they more concern what the improvement for their constituency leh. Thats the Urban & Rural divide lah. Haiyoh. Correct?
2022-11-19 13:10 | Report Abuse
nope, national issue is far too big...to be overweighed by constituency short term needs
Posted by UlarSawa > Nov 19, 2022 1:08 PM | Report Abuse
What happen even chg gorment again the same MP is elected. That means another 5 yrs no development like the 4 yrs ago. No lah. Enuf of that lah. Haiyoh. Constituency improvement first then National Issue. Haiyoh. Correct?
2022-11-19 13:05 | Report Abuse
yes as long as ruling govn is changed to PH
Posted by UlarSawa > Nov 19, 2022 1:03 PM | Report Abuse
Ular more on candidate not party this time leh. After voted PH won. But MP n State Assembly man pun takda kerja one. What the candidate can do for the constituency is more important leh. Even your party win and your constituency no improvement for what lah. Other ppl constituency get alot of improvement but your own constituency kanasai nothing being done. You want like this kah. Haiyoh. Correct?
2022-11-19 13:03 | Report Abuse
i see, yes winnable candidate... but what is the benefit on stating it....we can bet like stocks to make money ma?
we are here to tell which is a better candidate..so by these debates we may have a better outcome in the far future if not near
Posted by UlarSawa > Nov 19, 2022 12:59 PM | Report Abuse
Ular ada own opinion siapa are winnable candidates leh. Not emotional like you all leh. Win or Lose is depend on rakyat vote leh. Not Ular can decide one leh. Ular only tilik siapa can win only leh. Haiyoh. Correct?
2022-11-19 12:56 | Report Abuse
@ular, on your tebrau or sg buloh fruits
these fruits though sweet are from branches that is coming from a big tree with rotting roots...eating it will only sustain the rotting tree
its time to chop of this tree (BN or PN) and replace with a healthy one (PH)...though you can expect some of its initial fruits can be sour..
2022-11-19 12:21 | Report Abuse
simple rock bottom EPS derivation for HY going forward:
........................................
Diesel & Jet Fuel combined yield (46% Diesel + 7% Jet Fuel) of 53 %,
lets conservatively use: 50%
Diesel & Jet Fuel crack assumed averages going forward 30 USD/brl (not difficult considering it had averaged 43 USD/brl last 6 months)
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/
Gross margin from Diesel & Jet Fuel alone:
= (10.5 million barrels/qtr x 50% yield) x (30 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.50/USD)
= 708 million MYR ....
PBT = 628 million
PAT = 477 million
EPS = 1.59
..........
The above is assuming zero contribution from Gasoline which they had hedged at least 18 million barrels at about 10 USD/brl (good for 4 quarters output, i.e at 3.6 million barrels gasoline per qtr at 35% yield).
This is the advantage HY has over other refineries like Petron while having almost zero output of Fuel Oil as a complex refinery (Fuel oil is at negative 31 USD/brl crack spread)
2022-11-19 12:20 | Report Abuse
latest crack spread update: Diesel @42 USD/brl, Gasoline @7 USD/brl, Jet Fuel @31 USD/brl
..........................
LOW SULPHUR GASOIL CRACK SPREAD (1000MT) FINANCIAL FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)GOC1!
GOC1!NYMEX
42.115
D
USD
+0.312
(+0.75%)
MARKET CLOSED
SINGAPORE MOGAS 92 UNLEADED (PLATTS) BRENT CRACK SPREAD FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)D1N1!
D1N1!NYMEX
2.027
D
USD
+0.646
(+46.78%)
MARKET CLOSED
SINGAPORE MOGAS 95 UNLEADED (PLATTS) VS. SINGAPORE MOGAS 92 UNLEADED (PLATTS) FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)SMU1!
SMU1!NYMEX
See more on advanced chart
5.052
D
USD
+0.067
(+1.34%)
MARKET CLOSED
SINGAPORE JET KEROSENE (PLATTS) DUBAI (PLATTS) CRACK SPREAD FUTURES (CONTINUOUS: CURRENT CONTRACT IN FRONT)ASD1!
ASD1!NYMEX
See more on advanced chart
30.992
D
USD
−0.452
(−1.44%)
MARKET CLOSED
2022-11-15 20:06 | Report Abuse
crack spread is strengthening further, you will see it rise further tomorrow
Even Q4 is going to be excellent..
HY will be a net cash company that is going to regularly provide dividends.
2022-11-15 11:25 | Report Abuse
simple rock bottom EPS derivation for HY going forward:
........................................
Diesel & Jet Fuel combined yield (46% Diesel + 7% Jet Fuel) of 53 %,
lets conservatively use: 50%
Diesel & Jet Fuel crack assumed averages going forward 30 USD/brl (not difficult considering it had averaged 43 USD/brl last 6 months)
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/
Gross margin from Diesel & Jet Fuel alone:
= (10.5 million barrels/qtr x 50% yield) x (30 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.50/USD)
= 708 million MYR ....
PBT = 628 million
PAT = 477 million
EPS = 1.59
..........
The above is assuming zero contribution from Gasoline which they had hedged at least 18 million barrels at about 10 USD/brl (good for 4 quarters output, i.e at 3.6 million barrels gasoline per qtr at 35% yield).
This is the advantage HY has over other refineries like Petron while having almost zero output of Fuel Oil as a complex refinery (Fuel oil is at negative 31 USD/brl crack spread)
2022-11-14 23:05 | Report Abuse
simple rock bottom EPS derivation for HY:
........................................
Diesel & Jet Fuel combined yield (46% Diesel + 7% Jet Fuel) of 53 %, conservatively use: 50%
Diesel & Jet Fuel crack assumed averages going forward 30 USD/brl (not difficult considering it had averaged 43 USD/brl last 6 months)
Gross margin from Diesel & Jet Fuel alone:
= (10.5 million barrels/qtr x 50% yield) x (30 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.64/USD)
= 730 million MYR ....
PBT = 650 million
PAT = 494 million
EPS = 1.64
..........
The above is assuming zero contribution from Gasoline which they had hedged at least 18 million barrels at about 10 USD/brl (good for 4 quarters output, i.e at 3.6 million barrels gasoline per qtr at 35% yield).
This is the advantage HY has over other refineries while having almost zero output of Fuel Oil (at negative crack spread) as complex refiner
2022-11-10 19:15 | Report Abuse
Going forward, simpler derivation to use on minimum possible EPS per QTR:
......
Diesel & Jet Fuel combined yield (46% Diesel + 7% Jet Fuel) of 53 %, conservatively use: 50%
Diesel & Jet Fuel crack assumed averages going forward 30 USD/brl (not difficult considering below news)
Worst of Europe’s Diesel Crunch Will Hit in Spring
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-09/worst-of-europe-s-diesel-crunch-won-t-hit-until-spring?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google
Gross margin from Diesel & Jet Fuel alone
= (10.5 million barrels/qtr x 50% yield) x (30 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.64/USD)
= 730 million MYR ....
PBT = 650 million
PAT = 494 million
EPS = 1.64
..........
2022-11-10 11:40 | Report Abuse
Posted by probability > Oct 2, 2022 9:21 PM | Report Abuse
Malaysia Diesel output (MT):
Apr: 728,887
May: 886,360
June: 1,189,158
July: 1,237,929
August: 1,633,000
2022-11-10 11:33 | Report Abuse
It cannot be too far from below:
..................................
Posted by probability > Oct 7, 2022 10:52 PM | Report Abuse
Diesel at 46% yield, at say crack spread of USD 43.6/brl
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/
Gross margin from Diesel alone
= (10.5 million barrels/qtr x 46% yield) x (43.6 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.64/USD)
= 977 million MYR ....
PBT = 897 million
PAT = 681 million
EPS = 2.27
2022-11-10 11:25 | Report Abuse
petron corp would have huge impact from gasoline price dip at the end of qtr from their retail segment, you cannot compare with pure refiner like HY
below remains
Q3 - Rock bottom EPS analysis
(using lowest possible average crack spread during the period - as if it was this level every single day of 90 days in a quarter)
.........................
Using extreme conservative scenario where 50% of HY throughput is hedged where they will only reflect hedge margin at extra low 10 USD/brl, with the balance free to capture market margin
1. Diesel at 46% yield, cracks USD 39/brl
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/
2. Jet fuel at 7% yield, cracks USD 29/brl
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-ASD1!/
3. Gasoline at 35% yield, cracks USD 7/brl
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/
3. Rest of product yield at 12%, using Mogas 95 cracks USD 7/brl
Gross profit from (Hedged) portion:
..............................
= (10.7 million x 50%) x (10 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 240 million MYR .....(1)
Gross profit (UN-HEDGED) portion:
............................
Refining margin/brl:
= (0.46 x 39) + (0.07 x 29) + (0.35 x 7) + (0.12 x 7)
= (17.9 + 2.0 + 2.5 + 0.8)
= US $ 23.2 / brl
Gross profit:
= (10.7 million x 50%) x (23.2 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.5/USD)
= 558 million MYR ......(2)
Total gross profit (1) + (2)
= 240 + 558
= 798 million MYR
PBT = 718 million
PAT = 545 million
EPS = 1.81
2022-10-13 00:16 | Report Abuse
MALAYSIA DATA: Diesel output jumps 32%
https://www.qcintel.com/article/malaysia-data-diesel-output-jumps-32-gasoline-up-14-9038.html
Malaysia’s diesel production jumped 32% month-on-month to 1.633 million mt in August
Posted by probability > Oct 2, 2022 9:21 PM | Report Abuse
Malaysia Diesel output (MT):
Apr: 728,887
May: 886,360
June: 1,189,158
July: 1,237,929
2022-10-09 12:25 | Report Abuse
a naysayer repeating a demoting post...once already read by the invested in HY will no longer have any value by reposting
however, a promoter repeating a valuable information that often gets swept away by flood of nonsense post (including those which does not add any info on the stock like some of Ular's chit chats - but i admit Ular does at time adds value to the valuation by the forumers)...needs to be repeated.
reason, these info can be overlooked by investors elsewhere (non HY) and may pull them in to HY when they read...as fresh buyers comes in it may help the stock
one can argue demoters post may act as a deterrant to the newcomers but..but the odds are high that its fueled more by jealousy than any real intention to helps others selflessly..
2022-10-09 12:14 | Report Abuse
it deprives healthy discussion to debate on what should be the fair valuation...
2022-10-09 12:13 | Report Abuse
However, i must add that simply posting with the objective of speculating others objective, talking about the promoters or demoters without a more concrete justification...all the time and flooding the forum is truly annoying
2022-10-09 12:11 | Report Abuse
Give a like to these statements from Ular..:)
Posted by UlarSawa > Oct 9, 2022 10:55 AM | Report Abuse
Haiyoh. Keep reposting the same post pun very much like playing broken record also leh. Be creative sikit leh. At least change the banner leh. Same one see few times pun basi leh. Haiyoh. Correct?
Posted by UlarSawa > Oct 9, 2022 11:03 AM | Report Abuse
Playing broken records is like no new idea to post and keep reposting the same post repeatedly leh. Be creative sikit leh. Can rephrase it or add new words or not. So boring leh. Read once is ok. Read twice still ok. Read thrice getting boring leh. Not to mention want to read countless times siapa so c2pig want to read again lah. Haiyoh. Correct?
2022-10-08 20:13 | Report Abuse
@cactus81,
we do not have crack spread chart for mogas95 against brent as such we use the below two charts (mogas92 crack against brent and the difference between mogas95 and mogas92 to derive the crack spread of mogas 95 against brent)
Gasoline Mogas 92: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-D1N1%21/
Gasoline Mogas 95 premium: https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-SMU1!/
from above, current crack: -1.17 + 2.84
= 1.67 USD/brl
Posted by cactus81 > Oct 8, 2022 7:19 PM | Report Abuse
@Probability
Malaysia petrol is ron95 but the d1n1 is refer to ron92. Any relation?
2022-10-08 15:11 | Report Abuse
Amazing its 59.5 USD/brl now...the way its going it may even deliver its marker cap in a single quarter..
Posted by probability > Oct 7, 2022 10:52 PM | Report Abuse
Diesel at 46% yield, at say crack spread of USD 45/brl
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/
Gross margin from Diesel alone
= (10.7 million barrels/qtr x 46% yield) x (45 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.64/USD)
= 1027 million MYR ....
PBT = 947 million
PAT = 720 million
EPS = 2.40
..............
today's Diesel crack spread: 55 USD/brl
Expect Monday reading to be even higher...
2022-10-08 00:28 | Report Abuse
ok thanks for the explanation Rabbit2..
2022-10-07 22:52 | Report Abuse
Diesel at 46% yield, at say crack spread of USD 45/brl
www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/
Gross margin from Diesel alone
= (10.7 million barrels/qtr x 46% yield) x (45 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.64/USD)
= 1027 million MYR ....
PBT = 947 million
PAT = 720 million
EPS = 2.40
..............
today's Diesel crack spread: 55 USD/brl
Expect Monday reading to be even higher...
2022-10-07 22:50 | Report Abuse
30/09/2022
...........
Mogas92 crack spread: USD 1.652
change in mogas92 spread between Q2 & Q1: 16.733
Change in net asset in OCI between Q2 & Q1:
[(1.751-0.261)-(0.339-0.045)] = 1.196 billion
change in mogas92 spread between Q3 & Q2: - 29.926
Thus, change in net asset between Q3 & Q2:
[(1.751-0.261) - (0.339-0.045)]*(29.926/16.733)
= 1.196*(29.926/16.733)
= 2.14 billion change (equivalent to RM 7)
OCI net asset in Q3 will be: (1.49 Billion) + 2.14 Billion
= 650 million
NTA will rise by RM 7 as a minimum in Q3
2022-10-07 20:47 | Report Abuse
Marathon's Garyville refinery hit by fire, BP's Toledo set for extended shutdown
3h ago
Operations have been disrupted following a fire at Marathon Petroleum Corp's refinery in Garyville, Louisiana, but so far the company has not commented on the extent of the damage.
According to Marathon's website, the facility along the Mississippi River has a refining capacity of 578,000 barrels per day, making it the third-largest in the country.
Wednesday's fire injured two workers, a company spokesman said, but was extinguished by Marathon Petroleum's own fire crews.
The same plant was rocked by an explosion in February of this year on the 110,000-bpd hydrocracker, a key unit that upgrades low-quality heavy gas oils from the atmospheric or vacuum distillation tower into jet fuel, diesel, and gasoline.
Meanwhile, Reuters reported this week that BP had laid off most contractors at the 160,000 barrel-per-day Toledo, Ohio, refinery it owns with Cenovus Energy, indicating that the plant will experience a prolonged shutdown following last week's explosion and fire.
The more than 100-year-old refinery has been offline since the middle of last week following the explosion and will likely be shut for several months.
2022-10-07 16:56 | Report Abuse
yeah take your time..thanks
Posted by Rabbit2 > Oct 7, 2022 2:32 PM | Report Abuse
@probability
Will reply you tonight when I'm free
2022-10-07 13:24 | Report Abuse
@Rabbit2,
can HY realize all their hedging instruments on refining margin swap, e.g for gasoline in order to realize whatever gain they can make now due to present crack spread, in a single quarter instead of using it for hedging purpose distributed along with the physical market transaction, if they wish to do so?
I mean, is it legally/based on audit requirement, acceptable to do so?
2022-10-07 00:29 | Report Abuse
crack spread exploded further up again.. watch the figure on Friday
2022-10-06 16:24 | Report Abuse
that Bob will change his tune, even with 10 cents up
2022-10-06 16:05 | Report Abuse
OTB, you know i am always consistent what what i say..
its just that people like Bob irritate me when they keep changing their tunes and flood the forum with rubbish comments
at times i feel like giving them the taste of what they give here
Posted by OTB > Oct 6, 2022 3:58 PM | Report Abuse
Dear BobAxelrod and probability,
I appeal to both of you for help.
Please do your part to help all small investors in Hengyuan to make money.
This good fundamental stocks will move up north very fast, please do your part.
I hope all investors will make money from this good fundamental stock.
Thank you.
2022-10-06 15:45 | Report Abuse
this forum is only for personal attack....no need to talk about numbers..
2022-10-06 15:44 | Report Abuse
gasoline crack spread had crashed ...Q3 results will be a loss...better to sell now before its too late...
Stock: [HENGYUAN]: HENGYUAN REFINING COMPANY BERHAD
2022-11-24 19:00 | Report Abuse
Mogas95 crack spread had also risen more than 10 USD/brl against Brent:
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-AV01!/
https://www.investing.com/commodities/brent-oil