https://www.google.com/finance/quote/1773:TYO

https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=45&From=JPY&To=MYR

yup, dragon328 is a gem

just sharing some old news (2007) to see YTL management view earlier on listing

https://www.reuters.com/article/ytl-listing-idUKKLR31301220070313


KUALA LUMPUR, March 13 (Reuters) - Malaysian energy to construction firm YTL Corp YTLS.KL may list its shares overseas if it cannot eliminate the chronic under-valuation in its locally listed stock over the next five years, its boss said on Tuesday.

Managing Director Francis Yeoh told Reuters the company would keep boosting shareholder returns in an effort to narrow the discount, through ordinary cash dividends, potential special dividends, share buy-backs and discounted equity offerings.

But Yeoh, who has long held that YTL Corp shares trade below their fair value, said he would review the company’s options if the new policy of ramping up returns did not fix the problem.

“In five years time, let’s say, probably I will review and say which is the best exchange to list on at that time,” he said in an interview in his penthouse office overlooking Kuala Lumpur.

“The business will have been built and there will be so much more capacity in our businesses in five years. We will know what to do by then.”

....

YTL Corp YTLS.T keeps a listing for its Japanese investors in Tokyo, but has resisted entreaties to launch a major listing in London, home to its biggest asset in Wessex Water, preferring to stay in Malaysia where market liquidity is thin and the ringgit currency remains a barrier for some foreign investors.

Malaysian broker Kim Eng Securities has a target price of 8 ringgit per share on the stock, which ended on Tuesday at 6.90 ringgit. It trades at 1.43 times book value, putting it at the lower end of firms in the DJ World Industrials Index .W1IDU.

YTL Corp has suffered this discount despite being an aggressive buyer of its own stock. For years, it paid a meagre dividend yield but announced steps to boost shareholder returns five-fold for its current financial year to end-June 2007.

18% spike, interesting..may be their Japan property value is getting unlocked...

Singapore looks elsewhere amid doubt over Indonesia's green power exports

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2023/07/19/singapore-looks-elsewhere-amid-doubt-over-indonesia039s-green-power-exports#cxrecs_s

“We are closer to Singapore. Indonesia still has the opportunity [to capitalise on Singapore’s clean power demand], for now,” Fabby said, but he noted that, if the country did not act quickly, others would.

He said red tape would be holding Indonesia back unless the government did something to tackle it. “It could be a loss for us, we’d lose the opportunity to dominate the market,” Fabby said.

Furthermore, Malaysia, which is as close to Singapore as Indonesia, lifted its electricity export ban this year, two years after imposing it. The opportunity could help push the development of domestic renewable energy, including demand for industries producing components for clean energy, such as solar photovoltaic.

Maulida Rahma, renewable energy campaigner at Trend Asia, told the Post on Monday that exporting power from renewable sources should be done with caution, as many parts of Indonesia still lacked electricity, due in part to a lack of connections between grids in different regions of the country.

i think for some reason the price really want to over take YTLP

If people almost consider investing MYR 100 billion to bring electricity from Australia to Singapore....it will be a waste if Malaysia do not capture such opportunity / huge demand from Singapore.


https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/billionaires-clash-as-21bn-australia-to-singapore-green-power-mega-plan-hits-rocks/2-1-1386409

No wonder YTL wanted to bid for Boustead Plantations...

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/07/08/green-push

Since 2022, Laos has been exporting 100MW of green energy from its hydro power plants into Singapore, and has been paying TNB wheeling charges for that.

It is being done through a project involving four Asean countries in cross-border electric trade.

“If Laos can be selling green energy into Singapore via Malaysia, Malaysian producers should be allowed to do the same,” notes an industry player who is waiting with bated breath for the details of how local producers can export to Singapore. TPA will be a game changer

Perhaps even more significant is the planned opening up of Malaysia’s electricity grid to third parties, known as third-party access or TPA.

Singapore’s electricity demand spiked amid heat wave in May

https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2023/07/05/singapores-electricity-demand-spiked-amid-heat-wave-in-may/

Additionally, during periods of increased demand, EMA can direct generation units such as Open Cycle Gas Turbines to supply additional electricity to meet the system’s needs

(OCGT usage will further raise the USEP)

Tariffs hike increases from July to September
.............................................

Singapore residents will experience an electricity tariff hike of 12% between July and September 2023, as announced by the Energy Market Authority (EMA), the regulatory body responsible for the energy industry in Singapore.

This is the highest hike since the deregulation of the electricity market in 2001, and will come into effect shortly after the release of the EMA’s bi–annual Retail Electricity Price Report.

interesting thoughts from hng33..

wouldnt the YTLP shareholder demand it to be priced close to YTLP's NTA?

not sure how this share exchange works

no issues, its normal in stock market,..we need to hear the negative comments too else no chance of finding truth

wellsaid hng33..absolutely agree cost came down while asp went up and cant see the scenario changing on foreseeable future

focus on something more important..will you?..i am sure the 18 year old did not mind..

she must have been triggered by her own unfeminine looks

sslee thank you so much..you are such a gem
i completely lost trust on Bursa & SC after the Serbadinamik drama...crooks like Karim can only thrive with involvement of the guys at the top of Bursa & SC

our corruption level has gone down to the level of Indonesia 30 years ago

unless demand goes down or new capacity comes up, its simply not possible for the profit to come down if you see the "Market clearing process' section 9.2.3

the demand will only go up in singapore coupled with this short term El Nino effect....

To those who wants to know why the electricity price goes up with demand (independent to fuel price), you may refer "Market clearing process' section 9.2.3

https://www.ema.gov.sg/cmsmedia/Handbook/NEMS_111010.pdf

By the way its been confirmed that current quarter electricity price shot up by more than 50% while the trailing 2.5 months natural gas price had dropped by more than 50% (compared to first quarter ending Mar 23'). YTL powerseraya had bought the fuel in advanced when it was cheap in large quantity.

https://www.ema.gov.sg/cmsmedia/Publications_and_Statistics/Statistics/35RSU.pdf

Q2 results is possible to have double the Q1 EPS. Hng33 is correct.

Last month, prices reached as high as S$3,594 ($2,685) a megawatt-hour in daily trading after a power plant at Jurong Island shut for a turbine upgrade amid unusually hot weather. Meanwhile, the cost of LNG has fallen 86% since March 2022.

i dont know about this mikecyc, but considering sslee request i think i3 should ban him...

personal note to sslee, have you tried just avoiding responding / interacting with such trolls...usually they will stop by themself...not sure how this happened

What happened during the last El Nino?

The last major El Nino event occurred in 2016. It affected more than 60 million people, particularly in eastern and southern Africa, the horn of the Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Asia pacific region.

It disrupted crop production, imposed societal distress and resulted in peak energy consumption

Unprecedented heatwaves driven by this major El Nino event made 2016 the hottest year on record in Singapore (since 1929) and globally

//www.straitstimes.com/singapore/what-does-the-return-of-el-nino-mean-for-the-planet-and-you

El Niño planet-warming weather phase has begun

Published
4 hours ago

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65839060

There's also a strong likelihood that this year's version will push 2024 past 2016 as the world's hottest year.

ah ok, i got it dragon328...so the value goes up as per the rise in cost of equity and debt

https://klse1.i3investor.com/servlets/ptres/67695.jsp

We came away from its analysts briefing last Friday feeling positive about its earnings outlook. The key takeaways are as follows:

1. The company expects PowerSeraya’s earnings to sustain at least in the next 2-3 years given: (i) no new plant-up of power plants in Singapore for the next three years which would sustain good retail price that it currently enjoys, (ii) no more “take or pay” LNG supply agreements which have ended between 2020 and 2023, which reduces input costs, and (iii) its locked-in low gas prices secured during the early days of the pandemic which will last for the next 2- 3 years, thus keeping its fuel cost low.

@dragon328, i am truly impressed with the level of knowledge you have in this power business in singapore and other YTLP businesses

somehow i feel you must be having someone working inside YTL

@dragon328, you mentioned on Wessex RAB as per below:
-The beauty of a regulated asset is that it never loses money and its asset base will always expand along with inflation.
-With rising interest rates in next 2 years, Wessex is entering a rapid asset expansion phase with its RAB expected to increase by over 500 million pounds in 2020-2025 regulatory period.

wouldn't rising interest rate would actually reduce the inflation rate? Appreciate if you could enlighten more on the mechanism of RAB valuation..

thanks dragon328..its all very clear now

thanks dragon328, the profit shows how much advantage PowerSeraya has over other Gencos

@dragon328, would like to hear your comments on some of the conclusions i am making as per my comments on your blog here:

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/dragon328/2022-12-06-story-h-303952239-YTL_Power_the_Rising_Power_in_Singapore.jsp

Lower reserve margin raises spot prices

https://www.ema.gov.sg/cmsmedia/Licensees/Electricity-Policy-Papers/Information%20Paper%20-%20Enhancing%20the%20Singapore%20Wholesale%20Electricity%20Market.pdf

We have NG price drop of easily 4 USD/MMBTU between the quarters Jan - Mar 23'' and Apr 23' looking at the NG price chart using 2.5 months trailing price (Nov & Dec 22') as per basis presented by sslee above

that translates to 4 x 1.35 SGD/USD x 3.4 MMBTU/MWh = SGD 18/MWh

using CCGT efficiency of 61.8%, thats a fuel cost reduction of SGD 29/MWh

All others being equal the 'non fuel margin' expanded by SGD 29/MWh - SGD13.9 MW/h (from tariff changes), i.e by SGD 15/MWh for Apr to June 23'

appreciate to have dragon328 comments on my layman understanding :)

The Tariff revision which is a drop from 28.95 to 27.43 cents is matching the table presented on UESP 2005-2023 above which is merely a drop by SGD 13.9/MWh or about 1.39 cents per KWh.

But from this info we cannot determine anything on the non-fuel margin as its the sum effect of the fuel cost and non-fuel cost breakdown above....

considering the significant drop in NG price - more than 50% taking the 2.5 months lag effect (we can calculate it accurately if we want), it indicates the non fuel margin has expanded significantly into the second quarter (Apr - Jun 23')

They have no choice as if not, they wont even have power to meet the demand.

Thats why they are forced to buy from Malaysia recently...else the next marginal unit price will be even higher.

It makes sense to pay the same non-fuel margin for the efficient ones as else it will be unfair to them.

I think i got it now...

when the demand had been increasing in Singapore while the supply side (installed) been stagnant, the marginal unit has gone up to the level of even less efficient open-cycled unit that needs non-fuel margin of SGD80/MWh to breakeven. As such the bidding mechanism will secure this margin even for the efficient CCGT ones like PowerSeraya

@dragon328, excellent work! Thanks..

https://klse1.i3investor.com/blogs/dragon328/2023-05-26-story-h-269658206-YTL_YTL_Power_Croaching_Tiger_Hidden_Dragon.jsp

'All other generating units, whether it is combined-cycled unit or open-cycled unit, will get the same wholesale price of SGD240/MWh for the period when an open-cycled unit is the marginal unit.'

I realized that there is a 'non-fuel margin' component as per dragon328 article above which is purely dependent on efficiency. This means its not dependent on NG price.

This what translates to the gross profit...how this changes is something i am unclear, perhaps it has to do with the CCGT efficiency against other power gen

you can see that'aug, oct, nov and dec 22' was even lower than current April 23'....Jan 22'was 480 SGD/Mwh...cant see much correlation with the NG price

https://www.ema.gov.sg/cmsmedia/Publications_and_Statistics/Statistics/35RSU.pdf

@sslee, but NG price was around current level before 2021

click the 5 - Yr chart

@dragon328, could you comment on this figure of SGD259/MWh? Can we use SGD 259 - SGD 85 as the rise in profit for YTLP for next 2 years? I must have some incorrect understanding


https://www.pressreader.com/malaysia/the-borneo-post/20230420/282492892996338

PowerSeraya’s earnings outlook remains bright with the elevated Uniform Singapore Energy Price ( USEP) and locked- in competitive gas contracts. The USEP has average at SGD259 per MegaWatt Hours ( MWh) between Jan and Mar this year, which is significantly higher than the SGD85 per MWh 5- year average that was seen during 2016 to 2020.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/669695

thanks sslee

their procurement head should be sacked for taking such risks in the first place

refineries are supposed to make margin no matter how oil price fluctuates as long as crack spread is positive

even HY did not lose money in 2020 when oil price drop below 10 USD/brl

there is no obligation for them to operate to lose 600 million

they can pay their employee wages for 12 qtr (3 years) without operating for that amount

thanks for the very valid queries sslee, especially on the high crude oil price they bought above selling price

they might as well stop operating and go for MTA activities if they cant buy crude cheaper than what they can sell

to all, i am truly sorry that my insights on HY profit generation is far out from reality

it appears that there are many practical factors that affects their margin such as the way the crude supply contract is made with petronas and sales with Shell..

HY may not had the flexibility to switch crude supplier or sales to other buyer than Shell Malaysia (whose fuel demand for diesel could have been muted during the period) within a very short time

90% if their crude supply and sales are to these parties which they probably cannot change within a short span

the only consolation is no one including HY is disputing the available market margin of diesel and gasoline based on means of platts singapore (MOPS)

good luck

Low crude oil price will drive demand for gasoline and diesel, refining margin will further expand (check out the crack spread tomorrow).

Russian oil price cap seems to be having positive effects on crude oil....and general market.

7 more days before sanction takes place.

well said...thats occam's razor

in fact 50% of their products are imported, their refinery output is much lesser

Posted by kebling98 > Nov 28, 2022 7:42 AM | Report Abuse

Macam petron crude distillation capacity of 88,000 barrels per day
3months =7.92m only lah
But impossible to run 100% rate one mah
3month Sales 8.6m
Obviously
Petron import finished product lah
If you read Agm reports
You know they import gasoline loh
Thats why cost per barrels for petron is so high loh
When gasoline price in July dropped drastically
Petron suffer loh. They import expensive gasoline in June and sell cheap cheap in July lei

ok ok

Posted by UlarSawa > Nov 26, 2022 12:50 PM | Report Abuse

Ular bukan cakap you lah. Ular cakap someone else lah. That one also cakap facts n figures one and cakap eps 2.00 lah. Haiyoh. Correct?

@ular, i have never stated Q3 minimum EPS 2

dont quote something i have not said

@upshare, i didnt get you

i have shared EPS expectation without hedging of inventory and with hedging of inventory (if you see my last posting)

HY has an inventory 3.5 million barrels

As worst case scenario, if you would like to consider inventory loss at 10 USD/brl, the loss will be:

= 3.5 million barrels x 10 USD/brl x 4.5 RM/USD
= 157 million

You can even add the loss above on below if you wish, you will still obtain an EPS of 1.20




Posted by probability > Nov 24, 2022 6:57 PM | Report Abuse X

simple rock bottom EPS derivation for HY going forward:
........................................

Diesel & Jet Fuel combined yield (46% Diesel + 7% Jet Fuel) of 53 %,
lets conservatively use: 50%

Diesel & Jet Fuel crack assumed averages going forward 30 USD/brl (not difficult considering it had averaged 43 USD/brl last 6 months)

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-GZ1!/

Gross margin from Diesel & Jet Fuel alone:

= (10.5 million barrels/qtr x 50% yield) x (30 USD/brl) x (MYR 4.50/USD)
= 708 million MYR ....

PBT = 628 million
PAT = 477 million
EPS = 1.59
..........

The above is assuming zero contribution from Gasoline which they had hedged at least 18 million barrels at about 10 USD/brl (good for 4 quarters output, i.e at 3.6 million barrels gasoline per qtr at 35% yield).

HY also hedges their inventory to protect themself from any changes to oil price. This can be seen by their Q1 results which was not helped by the rise in Crude oil price.

This is the advantage HY has over other refineries like Petron while having almost zero output of Fuel Oil as a complex refinery (Fuel oil is at negative 31 USD/brl crack spread)

its very straight forward

the only risk i see possible is if HY had not hedged their inventory sufficiently causing a dip in margin along with the drop in oil price

in whichever case, i see the effects in HY will be way more cushioned or dampened by their active refining margin hedging

Q4 will be good too considering that now even gasoline margin had risen up


Posted by Permutation > Nov 24, 2022 7:08 PM | Report Abuse

@ probability.
Looking at petron result, what is your take on HYC coming result ? What possible shock can one expect? TQ

@sslee,

PetronM did not hedge their inventory (probably insufficiently hedged), they had to sell at their retail gas stations as per the latest market price for the refined oil they bought from their refinery at high price earlier..

thats the only simple explanation i can think of