tsy, Dunknow, inwest, ariff, connie, Duit & all, Good Morning

KLCI may be green today but do be cautious. Most stocks are still down and most hardly moved. The index is propped up mainly by Tenaga. The overall sentiment is still one of fear and caution. The Dow's roller coaster ride of the past 2 days puts to shame even the most exciting roller coaster ride in the world. Yesterday, it rallied up 442 only to see it vanished to close down 204. It certainly does not send a very encouraging signal.

tsy, Dunknow, Inwest, ariff, connie, duit and All, Good Morning.

tsy, I wish I can have an answer to when the rout will stop....hahaha... But, for sure not in the immediate future. Dow dropped 1,000 points on opening and rallied off from here to be down 588. The US economy is recovering somewhat but the same can't be said for us.

tsy, Dunknow, ariff, inwest, jasonor, connie, duit & all, Good Afternoon

Thank you inwest for your thoughts. I agree with you.

Yes, most investors will be negative on the stock market. Depending on your investment timeline, this would be a good opportunity to monitor for discounted stocks. As the market trends down, any large scale margin calls will trigger another round of sell off. It can be a vicious cycle.

Oil price has dipped below 40 as I write while our MYR has continued its slide to 4.21. Some may ask, when will it all end? Well, we really don't know. The market is undergoing a period of adjustments with a myriad of external and internal factors influencing it until a new equilibrium is achieved in the bear before the bulls reign again.

In the meanwhile, we just have to ride it out. It is very important that investors especially newbies, refrain from buying into a stock just because it looks "cheap" now as compared to its price before the index broke down from 1600. Cheap can be cheaper in a jiffy. You really need to know the value of the stock before you can say it is cheap.

Inwest, Good afternoon. Hope you still find time to enjoy your single malt whisky.

Connie, ...hahaha... i don't have trading secrets lah. I believe your wave and trading is much better than me.

tsy, Dunknow, jasonor, ariff, connie, duit, Jal & All, Good Afternoon.

Yes, big Dow drop with reds across Europe sends shivers down the spines of many. As it is, all major markets are down 2% to 3% except Malaysia who is probably the only green besides NZ market. In addition, our MYR slid to around 4.18 today. Perhaps Malaysia is playing catch up in someways, thus, the green market so far. Nevertheless, be cautious in your trading.

tsy, Dunknow, ariff, jasonor, connie, duit & all, Good Afternoon.

My assessment of the market is still bearish. I still believe any rebound is not sustainable in general. Most stocks are trending up only by a few sen during this rebound. Very limited upside with most investors refusing to take up positions in this very uncertain market. We are certainly not out of the woods yet.

Jasonor, it is best to assess the market in the light of the general broader context viz the local and world economy and the political scene in order to conclude if its a real rebound or not. Some rebounds are dead cat bounce but unfortunately we will only know it is such a bounce in hindsight.

There is no indicator to determine the strength of the rebound but by analyzing your indicators like RSI or MACDs for some, can give you a hint on its strength.

inwest, Good afternoon to you. Thanks for your kind words. Really great to see you pop in here. I am sure you are still picking the right stock and making the right moves.

Duit, I am fine bro. ...hahaha.. I should be asking you for donation. You are too humble. I know you are a good stock investor. ...hahaha...

tsy, Dunknow, ariff, jasonor, connie, duit & all, Good Afternoon.

Market looks ugly today. MYR dropped to 4.12 at one point and is now at 4.10.

tsy, Dunknow, ariff, connie, Duit and All, Good Morning.

Yes, finally greens overwhelmed reds yesterday. Yesterday was a day to either lock in profits or to clear out some stocks in our portfolio. But as cautioned earlier, Tsy, i doubt it can sustain for long. Already now as I write, it is down about 17 points.

Any TR will not be sustainable. We would be lucky it can sustain for a few days. The macro signals are still negative. Crude oil just fell to 42 and it is grossly close to dipping below 40. Our MYR continues to slide to about 4.08 at the moment. Foreign funds exodus doesn't seems to be ebbing. The yuan's 2 days devaluation did not help either. To top it all, our country is facing the biggest issue in confidence.

So, against this backdrop, its difficult to envisage a sustained TR let alone a market recovery.

The charts from yesterday would present very attractive reversal candles. You will have probably see lots of bullish engulfing candles and other reversal patterns which signals entry. Everyone is probably very excited over the chart patterns. So is TA still relevant? Yes, very much so but it has to be analyzed together with the macro backdrop. That is why we always say that TA is not the holy grail in stock trading.

Just my thoughts from a helicopter viewpoint.

tsy, Dunknow, teyl333, connie, ariff, Duit & All, Good Morning.

Nice rebound today. Hope all you good people out there benefited from the rebound.

Connie, hi. So good to see you here. Maybe you can coach me on call and put warrants.

teyl333, ...hahaha... its ok. Yes, I believe there will be TRs along the way as the CI bleeds. But I doubt those TRs will be strong. I think there are really 2 strategies to the current market.

If you are highly risk averse or are very uncomfortable with the market and has lots of fear in the market, stay sideline. If you are a risk taker, you may trade but it requires skills in timing entry and exit and you really need to tighten your stop loss and trailing stops. Your tolerance level should be low and control of emotions is necessary. It is important to trade good FA stocks only.

It is not easy to bottom fish as support levels can be broken at will as the CI keeps trending down. It is also crucial not to average down. You will notice by now that new lows can be established in a second and from day to day.

teyl333, sorry but what is TR? ...hehehe...

tsy, Dunknow, ariff, connie, duit teyl333 & All, Good Afternoon.

The falling oil price and China's yuan devaluation will weigh in further on the market. During times like these, please note that strong support can be broken down easily while strong resistance can get stronger.

teyl333,

MITRA:
Mitra's strong support at 1.71 is holding well so far. It broke down from its double top support at 1.72 briefly and has since recovered from this low, failing to complete the double top reversal pattern which is a good sign. It is close to oversold territory. Immediate resistance is at 1.84.

ariff7996,

PENTA:
The sell down of the previous days has brought it down to its support at 0.72. It rebounded off this support and is currently testing its next support level at 0.745/0.75. The selling momentum appears to have eased off somewhat. In spite of the bearish mode, it did not violate its uptrend line.

tsy, Dunknow, ariff, connie, duit, jasonor and All, Good Morning. Yes, good to see greens in the morning. As always, do trade cautiously.

Jasonor, I believe the stock market movement will be closely related to the MYR from hereon.

connie, I can't really comment much on call and put warrants as I have never traded them although I understand that they can offer some sort of protection during a bear market while in a bull market, it also offers a significant returns. Yes, you are right, either way the market goes, one can trade in these warrants.

jasonor, happy to see you back here. Theoretically, there is a possibility of a technical rebound as most stocks are close to or are in oversold position. However, in a fear gripped environment, traders may just continue the sell down and any rebound may be short lived or limited.

tsy, Dunknow, connie, ariff, duit and All, Good Morning.

Ariff, ..hahaha...thanks for your kind words. Although the index has dropped about 22 points so far, some penny stocks are not dropping as much as the previous 2 trading days, a possible indication that selling pressure is easing off on these stocks. Nevertheless, do trade cautiously.

tsy, the outlook is not good. The RM will now probably dictate the movement of the stock market from hereon. It certainly is bearish but there are still pockets of trading opportunities.

We are looking at the RM deteriorating to 4.10 against the USD. Realistically, its not possible for Bank Negara to continue defending the RM as it risk depleting our Reserves even further. I believe there is a serious loss of confidence by foreigners in not only our long term political and economical stability but also in the rule of law of the country. Pending the resolution of the various issues, foreigners will want to side step Malaysia in the short term and move their investment elsewhere before Malaysia becomes attractive to them again in the future.

While the RM can impact our stock market negatively, it can also have positive effects on export companies whose dealings are tied to the RM exchange rate. These are the pockets of trading opportunities that will be available to us.

Duit, so sorry, I don't understand Mandarin ...hahaha.... yellow banana ...hehehe....

Duit, ...hahahahaha.... I like your article. Very creative writing ...haha...

Zarcan, Connect's strong support at 0.23/0.24 is currently intact despite of the drop across the KLSE board. It needs to clear 0.255 before attempting the strong resistance at 0.32. We really do not advise on trading decisions. Among your options would be to cut now or wait for a rebound to minimize your loss or to wait on the stock.

If you were trading stocks like these for the short term, it is always best that you set a stop loss to minimize your loss early on when it trended down. Nevertheless, since you are caught with the stock, you will need to re-evaluate how you want to proceed with it. Do look at its FA too to help you in your decision.

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Posted by Zarcan > Aug 6, 2015 08:50 AM

Good Morning TCB and all traders..
Dear TCB, can you advise me on Connect.
i hold this stock at 0.40 @ 50000K
should i run now?

tsy, Dunknow, Connie, Duit, Ariff and All, Good Afternoon and hope everyone has a good lunch. Market may be down but we still need to eat. So, might as well enjoy your lunch!

tsy, Dunknow, Connie, Duit, Ariff, Sherrina, & All, Good Afternoon.

Sherrina, Iretex is currently trading sideways with a support at 0.31. It needs to clear 0.40 resistance before it can have any meaningful reversal. It will likely continue its sideways trading pattern. You can either continue holding the stock to wait for a bullish reversal or roll back cash to trade other potentially profitable stocks. The company made a loss in Q1 2015. So its FA has weakened somewhat.

tsy, Dunknow, connie, duit, ariff, sherrina and All, Good Afternoon.

Connie, you are always the lucky one ...hahaha....

Dunknow, one interesting note is that the increase in foreign has no impact on our RM as it continues to slide.

tsy, dunknow, connie, duit, ariff and All, Good Afternoon

Dunknow, the market will probably be lackluster in a side way movement. But an interesting note is that last Friday witnessed a net foreign buying day instead of the usual net selling trend.

To all TCB followers, we wish you a happy weekend. Hope next week's market will continue to do well for everyone. Cheers.

teyl333, yes, if you are able to collect near 0.30, that would be good. But do monitor the trading trend and the 0.30 support must hold. In case it doesn't, you can stop loss accordingly.

There are TA books sold in the bookstore which you can lay your hands on. There are also plenty of links online to google at. This is one link you can look at:

http://www.babypips.com/school

Although it refers to forex, but you can pick up TA knowledge from here.

tsy, Dunknow, Ariff, Connie, Duit & All, Good Afternoon

Ariff, yes you are right, the ordinary folks in the street are having a tough time. I guess it might have to get worse before it bets better, hopefully, the law of nature.

We hope all of you managed to reap some profits along the way. Many stocks have rebounded today and some stocks are taking on a new bullish leave in its life cycle.

tsy, uncertain times ahead best describes the current volatile domestic situation. The reshuffle reignited fear in the market yesterday although companies linked to the new DPM like IRCB and Salcon experienced a momentary surge in price in what I call the "DPM effect". The volatility in the China market is still very much in play in our market as traders turned cautious with so many negative sensitivities in the equation.

In any country to function successfully, there has to be checks and balances within the system. That is why the basic tenet of governance lies in the separation of powers between the legislature, the executive and the judiciary. Sadly, this has been compromised. Unfortunately, this has a bearing on our economy and market especially when it comes to attracting foreign investment.

I do not see robust growth in our economy in the short term in the face of a potentially slowing world economy not to mention the unresolved 1MDB issue still clouding us. We are also experiencing a situation of rising costs with a corresponding minimal increase in wages. This creates a spending squeeze on households and could have a contractual effect on domestic spending.

Nevertheless, we can expect our market to trend sideways with limited upside and possibly some downside.

tsy, Dunknow, Ariff, Connie, Duit & All, Good Afternoon

tsy, Dunknow, Duit, Connie, ariff and All, Good Afternoon.

Yes ariff, that is a wise thing to do. Whenever you feel nervous or don't feel good about the market, stay sideline.

The China index drop yesterday which came just when it was thought by the government to be stabilizing was not unexpected. The Chinese government has been intervening to support the market by implementing various measures. This resulted in an artificially propped up market. China as a communist country, still have strong beliefs in a centrally controlled economy. But in a stock market, it is best to leave it to market forces to dictate the index and to let it run its natural course to constantly rediscover its new equilibrium based on the dynamics of the environment.

Connie, ...hahaha.... we crossed territory. No more Randy but maybe can have some Brandy ...hahaha...

Duit, forgot to thank you for the song. Thanks.

rchi, congrats on Ikhmas. SunCon tomorrow will be interesting too.

connie, yeah, i forgot to thank you for the song. Fabulous song. I loved it. I must say you not only have a great eye for waves, but also a great ear for songs ....hahaha...Thanx.

Connie, hi there. Wow, congratz. Your thread has hit 1500 pages and still going strong. Great stuff.

...hahaha...Duit, I like your dinosaur decades description. Matrix does quite a fair bit of travelling as mentioned by him previously in his comments here.

Duit, Yoda and the others are still around but most are rather busy. Thank you so much for your concern. I shall try to get them to spare more of their presence here. However, they do follow comments here closely.

tsy, Dunknow, connie, duit, ariff and All, Good Morning.

Connie, yeah, all dandy now and waiting to be Randy too ....hahaha... Thx.

tsy, Dunknow, duit, ariff, thank you for all your good wishes.

Hope all will make lots of money today.

Good morning all.

...hahaha...thanks Dunknow. Duit make me shy shy ...hahaha.... Great to see both of you here.

Duit, ....hahaha.... you know lah, guys all like that ...hahaha.... I think I will like the Aroma and Fish Spa. Anyway, I always feel good hearing from you but I not gay yah ...hahaha... Cheers buddy!

Connie, thanks, my dear friend. Hearing from you already makes me feel better ...hahaha.... yeah, all peachy now and on the way, dandy.

tsy, Dunknow, ariff, Duit and All, Good morning.

Dunknow, thanks, i am very much better now although still not fully recovered. But if the market turns green all the way, I will recover faster ..hahaha...really huh, Duit's mamak honey lemon. Duit has a lot of remedies ...hahaha.....

Ariff, Thank you.

Duit, ....hahaha.... thanks. Sounds like good medicine ...hahaha....