The results of most export and furniture as expected....Now what? Most ppl are sharing with me that their stock is yielding high. Great to hear that! As I hv mentioned, EPS will be prevalent, hence my answer will be along that . It will restart the PE again since EPS will bring down the PE value. With at least one quarter looking at financial and the second quarter on EPS, the 3rd quarter should focus on expansion rightfully. In an ideal situation the increase FCF for a maintain budget would be best option. For those dependent on oil for operation this will be ideal

Read about Gurney Wharf..

Its the EPS

Good recovery against the tide

Nice break ...

The indicators yesterday has been bearish in terms of loser vs gainers towards the end of the day with more losers. This is not to say that the market is bearish. As the previous day and last week has been on a very bullish sentiment on KLCI however my opinion is it must break 1692 and move towards 1700 or straight of pass 1700 for more meaningful uptrend.

At one point, the gainer, loser and unchanged were very close in the 300+ region each. Approx 30% distribution each amongst them compared to earlier in the day where Gainers was leading in 62% region vs loser. While Gainers lost ground, the KLCI maintained for a while before dropping below 1680. It indicated some buechip maintaining the market momentarily as penny stocks were losing ground.
Having said market wants to recover, market also need new catalyst to move forward. The old news have been absorbed within the 3 day rule and now need more to refuel.

One of the headline I read this morning was "Oil slumps 4% as Saudi Arabia reaffirms no output cut" dated today however checking on the crude oil price is still above USD30 and the ringgit is weakening again. There are 2 sentiments here, the market sentiment and the personal sentiment. On the personal sentiment we may be happy to hear oil is still weak as that will be the only gain for consumers at the pump here with all other things being in inflation. On the market perspective, it will mean a few other things. For one those nett exporter of oil will produce even more to ensure that their income remains as we do not know when this will end. As they do that, they will also contribute to the output volume. Now supply is much higher than demand. I only wonder now if anyone will hedge oil especially when it hit USD25. The reason being avgly oil production is maintained low at USD25-30 and USD 30-35 for those with a lot offshore. Hedging here will make sense as production cost is higher than output price and play it like forex since any lower than USD25 most will call it a day. If hedging is in progress, this means that the buyer without much overlay of asset like those doing the refinery and rigging will acquire straight into their reserved. As mentioned we do not know how long this price will stay, the buyer will acquire slowly without increasing the demand.

A quick check of Top Oil producing countries will see in ranking US, followed by Saudi Arabia, Russia, China and Canada. Of this only one OPEC while majority OPEC only come in 6th position onwards. US is a nett importer of oil however that may not mean they will gain simply because it depends on export grade vs import grade. Eg Malaysia exports Grade A but import lower grade into the country. We may still lose. Hence if US being nett importer starts hedging, will the US dollar go up or down? Remember the law of supply and demand? Too much supply the price will go down. So here if US or any other countries starts hedging and collecting without affecting the demand oil price will still continue to stay low while the USD will get stronger? Agree?

1692 or straight pass 1700. The former better for sustainence. Achieving this in first half of trading today will be encouraging

Get ready for round 2 for today

Expectation and anticipation is better than the actual thing

Market excitement currently is not abt just financial results but how much better due to forex. As I hv posted IOI surges 37times and everyone is waiting to see their export stock results and EPS.

Market unlikely to move further if the untraded remains high at 718

At present, global market movement concerns investor of market crash. As no one will know if market would crash or not in future, but at the moment, I am certain it will not. It will NOT crash for the time being because of HOPE. The Presidential election in US brings hope just as we would do when things are at its worst. Hope is what keeps us afloat.

The market is currently driven by crude oil, currency transactions, slow business sentiment, heavy global politics and terrorism. Imagine what the new US president potential can bring to the table if he brings hope in solving Issues. I believe the market towards November 8 will be filled with hope and optimism. Hence the market likely to reflect some excitement unlike any other Presidential election.

Superb!

38c diff

Beautiful result. Nice chart but a lot of contemplating before each move

So far most results at least 40% on net profit due to forex and the latest IOI surges at 37 times of net profit with EPS from 0.31 to 11.51

Thumbs up

23cents diff.

Tony, you can check against bursa announcement, second check against foreign investment in marketft website or the likes under foreign investment.

If you have time, you can monitor the queue of buyers daily for buy queue. As mentioned instituitional will unlikely run up the share price as they wont chase on the share price, hence buy rate do not go up when they are collecting.

On the other hand, a syndicate will likely collect when instituitional sell when their system alert is triggered. Syndicate will buy when snowballing (i.e. Volume increase buy rate reduced substantially)

At half time most key counters is approx 50% buy rate. No heavy profit selling yet and no heavy buying. Consistent with tapering of excitement and wait and see. Gainers vs Loser hovering approx 60/40 in favour of gainer. If any of the indicator drop you may want to consider buying or selling depending on which side of the fence you sit on.

Use the 3 day rule

Tony, Buy rate for stock counters, you can ref to stock info in your trading screen. In general, buy rate refers to buyer buying at sellers price. If buy rate is low example 30 or below it is considered oversold. 50being in the middle

Will it hv any leverage ?

Good volume and move

2.82 assault second try

Rajuan, as requested.
First half assessment, low buy rate at low volume. No sizeable player.
This is due to KLCI trending up but E&O is not moving above 1.55.

Buy Queue Volume is 3times higher than Sell Queue. Buyers not willing to commit though they are interested to buy. Becoz Fear ?

Avg volume per hour is only 30k which is 10% of hrly volume when E&O moved the last round. Afraid to commit maybe the reason as buy queue is higher than sell.

On overall KLCI
- gainer ahead of loser 62/48. Buy rate of market is higher hence KLCI is moving north
- Untraded still high at 811. This one need to reduce to ensure those unsure of the market will participate. Yesterday Untraded was at approx 693 . If more traded at this good sentiment KLCI will move up further.

Summary
For E&O, it will not move without volume. This is because looking at each sell queue, it builds up over time. The longer it take the higher it get.
As for KLCI, if the Untraded goes down more than yesterday in a good sentiment, very likely it will contribute to higher buy rate of OVRALL market and that will push the KLCI higher. If KLCI remain at 1661 or lower, bullish buy rate did not increase but sell rate.

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Rajuan_Singh Simon, need your opinion again on E&O. Thx in advance

Rajuan, ok

Tomorrow will be first litmus test. If perform we may see other movement in anticipation of result for other export theme.

Thumbs up!

I think it's good if you share the fringe of the 27laws than quote number. Because then we can really understand fr your point

For those wondering what the future holds for USD and crude oil. It is easier to predict USD as a currency and I will explain why. Firstly US does not hv much control over the current drop in oil prices directly. I did a check on US as a consumer and exporter and overall they are nett importer of oil with up to 5MMbpd nett base on 2014 stats.

http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=727&t=6

This means that if USD weakens as oil price continue to drop , United States as a nett importer of crude oil will NOT benefit much.

This is one of the aspect of US not making it right in the global market which is highlighted time and time again. Though the oil market has been dropping USD currency have not capitalise enough. If what I hv mentioned does not make as much sense, I will give you an example of Malaysia in the same situation as we too are nett importer of crude oil and our currency against USD peaked at 4.4 on 18/1 even though the crude oil price was hovering in the 30s, the price at the pump could not really drop as much. Now the Govt sensing (last month) that the possibility of the crude oil dropping below USD25/barrel while the ringgit continue to weaken is real, they hv decided to put a floor price to the pump. That's why the calculation of the petrol price at the pump is still a secret.

So the only reason that the price of the petrol at the pump is still high even at RM1.75 (ron97) is because of weak ringgit then. If this month MYR continue to strenthen against the USD while the crude oil price slide or maintain at usd27 /barrel, technically the pump price for ron97 should be at near RM1.25. (I suspect they will come up with floor price higher than RM1.25/liter)

The question now is the ringgit strengthen against the greenback....longer term or just a fluctuation? Does it sound coincidental that the govt wanted a floor price for the petrol announced on 20Jan last month while Bank Negara also announce reducing the SRR to create liquidity and same time the govt investment arms hv sold their property in London to bring back the funds to Malaysia and then suddenly the ringgit strengthens. Coincident?? I don't think so.

It will be short term unless the money can continue to flow in.

Otherwise, expect ringgit to weaken. Again this is a game of desirability. The currency is desirable only if it can be transacted and the more flow of it (transaction) will ensure it does not lose ground. In my opinion, unless there are new announcement of more liquidity pumped in, I do not think the ringgit can sustain its position. We are still early in the game since the money pump in SRR is effective 1st Feb this month.

Rajuan, my view as follow, on Monday it touched 1.68 briefly (the resistance I mentioned earlier) and today's' fall to 1.61 fr 1.65 coincided with the global market which also timed to its peak at the two points I mention (1.65 & 1.68). Today's buy rate at 43.27% with lower volume also coincide with the market trend as buyers are prudent not to commit with market sentiment and at the same time the overheating from the overbuying with high volume over last 3 previous days I believe their action is justifiable.
For tomorrow, the thing to look out for is volume + buy rate + price change to determine if rebound is continuing.
Desirable outlook for tomorrow = high volume + high buy rate + price moving up
Not so desirable = high volume + high buy rate + price movement unchange (maybe collection in progress)
Not desirable = low volume + low buy rate + price decline (low interest)
Not desirable = high volume + low buy rate + price decline (panic selling)

Watch for this sign and decide...

There was concern in the market today of another sub-prime and banks were concern which led to another downtrend. Whilst we are all concern, however the global market has pickup up since then. We can look forward to a positive closing at best.
Now if we look and focus at our market vs the rest of other market which went down earlier today, I can say again "we want to recover, or we are trying to recover or someone or something wants us to recover" why?
Gainers vs losers - approx 50/50%
Traded vs Untraded - Approx 54/46%
Under traded category - Unchanged vs Change (Gainers+Losers) -approx 42/58%
The above tells me we are trying to recover, although in adverse global market or we are bottoming or have bottomed ready for rebound
Either way whether rebound or plateau, maybe a better sign compared to a diving KLCI with a majority loser with unchanged combo.
In my opinion, klse market is trying to recover even in adversity today. We will see rebound this few days as long as no new adversity news adding pressure to the local market.

"Market always want to recover"! Give it a reason, it will move north, give it a catalyst it will be bullish. There will be at least one instant this year the stars will align and the reason being US Presidential election run up will coincide with our change in the country.

Awakenings?

Rockford, in my opinion the WB is geared much lower. However having said that the gearing picks up at higher mother price. Base on earlier movement the current price should be 24c for WB.

Looking for a longer term direction at the moment

Yes another assault at SMA200 @1.65 and resistance of 1.68

Believe another assault if can pass 2.82

Yes, chart look beautiful!!

Note volume is required!

Hakchai, it must pass 1.58 theoretical barrier and 1.60 psychological barrier it may hit 1.68 today. If can pass 1.68 maybe the real breakout

Gd recovery

Well done. ,!

May see a breakout if volume and buyrate continues

Window dressing means don't buy because its not real

USD strengthening against MYR
Crude oil dropping again
DJIA falling

In summary we are ALMOST back to 2 weeks ago.

its not all doom and gloom
Crude oil fall helps balance world inflation
Strenthening USD ensure our export
DJIA falling gives us direction

Today a lot of us are playing share market like a chess game. We react on each of the move market throw at us. Because of the current economic situation, we take safe haven of Friday, or public holidays in case of undesirable news. We sell at slightest non conformity to market movement and we deliberate to buy cheaper and cheaper.
How do we explain
1. Why the market moves when it moves unexpectedly while we wait to buy cheaper?
2. Why most of the time when we sell the stock move up?

Here are some of the possible reason
1. When a situation becomes oversold with high volume "panic selling" we hv to identify whether it is genuine panic button pressed or due to non conformity.
The first thing you should do is to determine the buyer and seller demographics. Eg. If the daily queue volume is avg at say 1Million, and you hv an immediate single seller at 100k volume for a share price of RM2.00, this requires attention. If the same seller subsequently goes down and sell at buyers' price, the buy rate will drop. This maybe deem as premeditated selling.
2. However if the seller never queues at sell but goes straight into buyers buy queue with sizeable volume shared in (1) likely it is panic selling esp after a price stalemate over a long period. I am not concern with this type of queue especially when it happens without reason at between 10 - 12.30pm queues. Most of the time it is this selling that prompt the market to rebound very quickly.
3. A good market is one which allows daily equilibrium to set in between 9am to 11am earliest before committing a buy or sell. The 9am to 11am are deemed most emotional to morning news and concern.
4. In most cases, "panic selling " situation garners a lot of support esp during this turbulent economic environment. So many experience players here will decide whether a rebound is in the horizon and avg down or follow as with herd mentality. This differentiates the rich players from the experience investor/trader.
5. An experience trader plays within the band of support and resistance. He does so by not committing entirely at any one support or when it infringes a resistance. This is because his rule as trader is 10% to max 15% at any one breakout must be a sell. This is why I say it is a traders market more now!
6. What about investors then? My interpretation of trader is holding trades of within 3 mths (max 6 mths) while investors are anything above 6 mths. All this is very much inline with GDP reporting (2 Q) and financial performance reporting every Q. Hence investors need to see 6 mths into the future in terms of economy, political, catalyst. we will hv a likely change of Bank Governor in Apr, whilst quarter performance 2016 in Mar, US presidential run up till Nov 8, etc

With China buying very key assets in Malaysia from land bank to oil refinery (PD refinery not just any refinery one which does 156k bpd and with 90% consumed locally) they hv added another stake in their global holding and into the world market. Even with TPPA in place a global movement of supply chain can bypass many eyes

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/329025

We are seeing a catch 22 situation where export stock is concern. Many sold because of the stronger rebound in ringgit. If we look at the sector that is performing, we will see industrial product (i.e. Majority supplying nett export market), plantation, and tech. Tech majority also an export market.
For those who sold export stocks must be sure ringgit rebound can withstand this week. Otherwise the export stock will rebound and many will be left with plantation as the buy option.
If ringgit rebound is imminent, then those who buy plantation will surely benefit because apart from the rising demand, their export demand also have not been factored in last 2 years. The next 2 days we will know which direction. A migration to plantation or selected tech stocks or a support place back at export furniture. A support maybe place back at furniture counter is because this month financial report is a captured report that factored in upto Dec2015 when the exchange rate was prevailing.