Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-02-09 12:42 | Report Abuse

"Market always want to recover"! Give it a reason, it will move north, give it a catalyst it will be bullish. There will be at least one instant this year the stars will align and the reason being US Presidential election run up will coincide with our change in the country.

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-02-10 23:28 | Report Abuse

There was concern in the market today of another sub-prime and banks were concern which led to another downtrend. Whilst we are all concern, however the global market has pickup up since then. We can look forward to a positive closing at best.
Now if we look and focus at our market vs the rest of other market which went down earlier today, I can say again "we want to recover, or we are trying to recover or someone or something wants us to recover" why?
Gainers vs losers - approx 50/50%
Traded vs Untraded - Approx 54/46%
Under traded category - Unchanged vs Change (Gainers+Losers) -approx 42/58%
The above tells me we are trying to recover, although in adverse global market or we are bottoming or have bottomed ready for rebound
Either way whether rebound or plateau, maybe a better sign compared to a diving KLCI with a majority loser with unchanged combo.
In my opinion, klse market is trying to recover even in adversity today. We will see rebound this few days as long as no new adversity news adding pressure to the local market.

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-02-13 22:47 | Report Abuse

For those wondering what the future holds for USD and crude oil. It is easier to predict USD as a currency and I will explain why. Firstly US does not hv much control over the current drop in oil prices directly. I did a check on US as a consumer and exporter and overall they are nett importer of oil with up to 5MMbpd nett base on 2014 stats.

http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=727&t=6

This means that if USD weakens as oil price continue to drop , United States as a nett importer of crude oil will NOT benefit much.

This is one of the aspect of US not making it right in the global market which is highlighted time and time again. Though the oil market has been dropping USD currency have not capitalise enough. If what I hv mentioned does not make as much sense, I will give you an example of Malaysia in the same situation as we too are nett importer of crude oil and our currency against USD peaked at 4.4 on 18/1 even though the crude oil price was hovering in the 30s, the price at the pump could not really drop as much. Now the Govt sensing (last month) that the possibility of the crude oil dropping below USD25/barrel while the ringgit continue to weaken is real, they hv decided to put a floor price to the pump. That's why the calculation of the petrol price at the pump is still a secret.

So the only reason that the price of the petrol at the pump is still high even at RM1.75 (ron97) is because of weak ringgit then. If this month MYR continue to strenthen against the USD while the crude oil price slide or maintain at usd27 /barrel, technically the pump price for ron97 should be at near RM1.25. (I suspect they will come up with floor price higher than RM1.25/liter)

The question now is the ringgit strengthen against the greenback....longer term or just a fluctuation? Does it sound coincidental that the govt wanted a floor price for the petrol announced on 20Jan last month while Bank Negara also announce reducing the SRR to create liquidity and same time the govt investment arms hv sold their property in London to bring back the funds to Malaysia and then suddenly the ringgit strengthens. Coincident?? I don't think so.

It will be short term unless the money can continue to flow in.

Otherwise, expect ringgit to weaken. Again this is a game of desirability. The currency is desirable only if it can be transacted and the more flow of it (transaction) will ensure it does not lose ground. In my opinion, unless there are new announcement of more liquidity pumped in, I do not think the ringgit can sustain its position. We are still early in the game since the money pump in SRR is effective 1st Feb this month.

Posted by Wondermama > 2016-02-14 09:04 | Report Abuse

I suspect so....

Posted by Wondermama > 2016-02-16 09:19 | Report Abuse

Good call on the rebound.

Posted by Rockford > 2016-02-16 15:46 | Report Abuse

Fantastic rebound esp last line. Didn't know can see the market like that. Thanks I almost sold at lost

Blog: What are the odds of trading against the coming Quarter results?
Feb 10, 2016 11:28 PM | Report Abuse

There was concern in the market today of another sub-prime and banks were concern which led to another downtrend. Whilst we are all concern, however the global market has pickup up since then. We can look forward to a positive closing at best.
Now if we look and focus at our market vs the rest of other market which went down earlier today, I can say again "we want to recover, or we are trying to recover or someone or something wants us to recover" why?
Gainers vs losers - approx 50/50%
Traded vs Untraded - Approx 54/46%
Under traded category - Unchanged vs Change (Gainers+Losers) -approx 42/58%
The above tells me we are trying to recover, although in adverse global market or we are bottoming or have bottomed ready for rebound
Either way whether rebound or plateau, maybe a better sign compared to a diving KLCI with a majority loser with unchanged combo.
In my opinion, klse market is trying to recover even in adversity today. We will see rebound this few days as long as no new adversity news adding pressure to the local market.

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-02-19 21:20 | Report Abuse

So far most results at least 40% on net profit due to forex and the latest IOI surges at 37 times of net profit with EPS from 0.31 to 11.51

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-02-23 09:56 | Report Abuse

Market excitement currently is not abt just financial results but how much better due to forex. As I hv posted IOI surges 37times and everyone is waiting to see their export stock results and EPS.

Posted by speakup > 2016-02-23 09:57 | Report Abuse

Look at CCB example. When good news out...... SELL!!!!!!

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-02-23 10:21 | Report Abuse

Expectation and anticipation is better than the actual thing

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-02-23 10:21 | Report Abuse

Get ready for round 2 for today

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-02-23 10:51 | Report Abuse

1692 or straight pass 1700. The former better for sustainence. Achieving this in first half of trading today will be encouraging

Posted by RonaldTeng > 2016-02-23 14:15 | Report Abuse

Simon thanks for the article. Enjoyed it. I am feeling same way about Donald Trump and he is ahead in Nevada too on west coast side where I use to live. The frustration some of my buddies tell me is the same as what we feel in Malaysia currently. I too believe Donald will win and change making US more effective and the world a better place

Posted by SimonShuet > 2016-02-24 21:37 | Report Abuse

The results of most export and furniture as expected....Now what? Most ppl are sharing with me that their stock is yielding high. Great to hear that! As I hv mentioned, EPS will be prevalent, hence my answer will be along that . It will restart the PE again since EPS will bring down the PE value. With at least one quarter looking at financial and the second quarter on EPS, the 3rd quarter should focus on expansion rightfully. In an ideal situation the increase FCF for a maintain budget would be best option. For those dependent on oil for operation this will be ideal