I checked out kendall court singapores website and it's really an odd kinda page for a fund management.. they are going to the top of my list for idealists..

"Our most important qualitative parameter is the creditworthiness and integrity of the management and controlling shareholders – we have a very low threshold and tolerance level for this principle.

We will be doubly enthusiastic with companies placing a premium on human capital development and quadruply repelled vice versa."

I read it as they dont care if they dont make money so long as their reputation is intact.. now combine it with the aggressive odd price movements.. and the many declaration of increase in shareholding by CCP.. traders already started complaining about the management a week or so ago about the way price was being manipulated and that "his gang" were all painted with the same brush. I'm inclined to believe that this is more a difference in ideology in how things should be done. Rather than he future of the business itself.

Which is perfectly rational if you think about it. Another aspect to consider is that GP needs capital... 400M at the very least so I can see why such moves are made.. and from the few interviews I read of him... he gives me the vibe of typical dynamic CEO shark.. so no surprise about difference in ideology.

That being said the main reason I tend not to worry for their exit. I believe kendall's entry was at around 0.68
in 2019 and 0.70 in Feb. and they still made a profit by selling at a premium. I seem to recall price was around 0.69 - 0.71 at the time. In other words, it wasnt a hard sell.. and most likely information was being shared that makes buying the shares at a premium worth it.

I only started the stock market a few months ago.. but I'm more that experienced when it comes to back room business negotiations.. i think the day you take someone as a fool is the day you deserve to be called a fool.

Imagine a substantial shareholder in a company wants to exit a company and is offering a premium for the shares. Now imagine that one rule your abiding by is that the name of the buyer cannot be revealed!

Under these assumptions what is the expected direction of the price. Down and drastically down. That's a fact, everyone will immediately suspect the top shareholder lost faith in the company. But yet I still go ahead with the buy. Why? Am I fool to do so?

BELOW IS JUST RANDOM SPECULATION and is not to be read as a buy call...

You know If its, to my line of reasoning then you have to admire the guy for manipulating emotions and not the stock market. And the way the price has moved downwards is pretty much a text book example of being in control. Think about it.. as ceo you want to increase your stake but you cant start a mass sell-off to buy at a cheaper price therees no guarantee you end up with more shares than you started plus you will get crucified for insider trading.

A series of good news made.
primed the short term traders looking for a quick buck. Then you have a large moment of silence.
That starts to turn to frustration for buyers
And then you have a substantial shareholder that wishes to exit their stake (not gonna speculate if exit was engineered or not)
Now refuse to say who the stake was sold too.
Done...
watch the market implode..
america helped too so lets give credit there.

in 2018 CCP net worth was reported to be around 86 million. In my experience at least 90% would be tied up in fixed assets that aren't easily movable so he should have access to about 8.6 million in cash. I believe he spent more than that in his acquisition spree.. in other words he has probably mortgaged some assets or taken loans to cover his purchases. I dont expect he is trading on margin because he should have anticipated a large drop in share value. Which could subject him to the mercy of a margin call...
Plus the actual movements are expected to be about a year in the future.

Anyway, we could probably come up with a rough estimate on his total purchases since he started buying and figure how much of his net worth he actually invested in GP share acquisitions becuase unless he's mad, he has to be confident. If he's mad then we probably deserve the loss for investing in a crazy person if he is confident then we are just suffering collateral damage to a reasonably well thought out plan that takes advantage of certain situations which are all perfectly legal.

In the meanwhile, everyone trading for the little price gains... if they dont take their profits when the can
I expecte them to sit with me on this ride till 2021.

ICT did bring up a good point that none of their information was listed with bursa. And if the above scenario is closer to reality then it's not in their interest to do so..becuase it will probably fix psychological limits of fair value higher and higher. Which means lesser margin to play with on price.

@Agjl devils advocate here... not disagreeing with your point about the price... but if I take the average price range you stated for 1 year @ 0.55.. and then apply an average of the price drop for their industry over the last 4 days we could probably get a new price.. that being said what's the appropriate sector to apply for old investors this is antelekok stock.. for the new ones it's pure tech..even gp websites says so.

Anyway assuming the price drop for telekom is 5% drop every day for 4 days... (I dont know where to access this kinda data so just took a higher amount and averaged it) the new price would be around 0.447. I'm using the industry average to basically test what the price would have been if we dint have the proce plays and the price was initially at 0.55 and not the 0.6xit was at when this us drama started

I mean it does kinda match the time line.. early in the week transfer news.. then iflix was purchased by tencent... lol stranger things have happened

Lol.. just a joke maybe the 10% was bought by iflix:)

@victor I am doubtful of a Tencent takeover becuase Malaysia is still conservative when it comes to economical development. there is almost no chance for the digital license to be granted in the first round to a china owned entity. Simple reason being BNM see's this as a test case scenario to see the flaws etc.

Dont forget the data here is generally deemed sensitive information. identity, earnings, etc.

Maybe the 2nd or third round but quite impossible for 1st. I'm more inclined towards JV or some other method to bring them closer.

As for spinoff I did consider it.. and it's certainly a viable plan. But I doubt it would happen in the short-mid term. Becuase Kiples performance has a direct impact on gp share price. So it's actually more beneficial for them to play with GP now.

I think it will be an issue of price volatilty. It's fine for GP to play with their stock price etc. But when kiple pay gets presented before BNM for assesment they would probably like to keep any negative press away from it.. basically innocent of a new born baby. On one way you look at it as parent company protecting reputation of the child by taking on all sins.

On the other hand say they split off next month or so. It's almost certain the share is going to be cooked up/down and sideways by the time it actually heads for assesment. And the risk of having names like 'scam stock' is way too high.

Hmm while i do understand the problem that ICT has with the past performance of Green packet.

I'm more inclined to believe that the digital banking license will be applied for in the name of "kiplepay".. and the performance/rise of kiplepay is a different story from GP's. It's one of the perks of creating separate legal personalities aka corporate entities. BNM will be more interested in the performance of kiple rather than gp. Of course, this is not to say that GP's management wont be scrutinised but that normally gets mitigated by a business plan. So long as the management can show a proper plan in place to show that they are building a proper environment around the digital banking platform.
After all BNM has their own well paid stuff to deal with the assessment of business plans.

The growth/integration of kiplepay is basically mirroring stories of revolut, mondo, chime, etc which are the top digital banks globally. Furthermore, and this is a weak argument.. with the exception of Starling bank ranked number 4 globally. The naming conventions of digital bank is always a 1 word branding.

That being said.. I expect gp will build a lot of services independent from kiplepay and offer discounted rates to these services to kiplepay users..

A lot of screaming buy/sell etc..seems premature at this stage becuase BNM itself wont actually start assesment till at least 2021. I often see the statement that the stock is forward looking (about 6 months).. but the reality everyone is betting on is actually further than that like more than 12 months.

There may be a spectacular QR and it will limit up...but the price will eventually fall.. maybe not to 0.55 level as expectaion level will be a bit stronger. But it will fall becuase the event is to far away and expectations will weaken.

The qr report may be absolutely crap.. (low revenue-increased debt for all the recent expansions,etc) and the price will probably fall to the 0.4 range unlikely limit down because there is still a reasonable interest in this stock.that purchasing will prob kick in.. to get the stocks cheap.. but it will eventually rise.. maybe not to 0.55 as expectations are lowered but it will rise becuase the event is too far away and expectations will strengthen.

So my key point is.. do your research and manage your expectations. MYEG and Axiata group are good possible entries if your interest is solely for getting a slice of the digital banking action.. they have stronger fundamentals and a lot of other positives going for them. But they are priced higher.

Which brings us back to our risk/reward rationalisation. GP is the cheapest among the contenders at the moment so we all expect to see a lot of volatility on price and that's why most of us trade this counter becuase theres a lot of chances for movements to increase our earnings. However, volatility moves both ways and there is a lot of chance of losing the same or more.

Another aspect, to consider for myeg is that the license type in malaysia seems to not follow singapores style of separating into retail banking and wholesale banking. Instead, it's looking at it as conventional banking and shariah banking. I estimate 3 for conventional and 2 for shariah. In which case, Myeg is a stronger contender for a shariah license. If that's the case then you can remove myeg as a competitor for gp as it's in a different sector.

AXIATA is trickier as it's almost assured it will get one..and both are possible.. that being said I'm curious can a non-shariah compliant company offer shariah products?

In the latest development, Ageson formed a 70-30 joint venture with Bintang Dayang Sdn Bhd (BDSB), which has sand operation business partners, namely Tagas Juta Sdn Bhd (TJSB) and Malayan Energistik Solutions Sdn Bhd (MESSB).

TJSB is a holder of a sand concession licence from Sabah with validity until December 2021. It undertakes sand dredging activities from the river at Sungai Labuk, Beluran in Sabah for sand export to China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.

As for MESSB, it had received the special approval from the Chief Minister's Department of Sabah to allow for annual export of 10 million cubic metres of sand in three years, even without an AP from the federal government, if the sand is exported to Hong Kong, China, Taiwan and Macau.


So this is the relevant part of the government issues 11 sand licenses.
It specificallly cites the Special approval for MESSB
Dint realise TJSB was also a valid AP holder.

hmm looks like boost just took a good move towards one of the license..

@icst1975
That's actually an interesting point raised. On whether or not GP will qualify.

1) Frankly, the bar is quite low. Capital wise RM 100 million in the foundation phase (which will probably be a year or so and then RM 300 million) thanks to the Warrant sales it looks like they raised nearly half for the war chest. And we can probably assume another part of the chest being made up from the share price being manipulated and it will probably show up as a private loan from CCP and friends to GP.

2) As for serving the community and fit or not fit, cant really declare as to their capability there. For a little bit of humor though if you consider how well played out the price war has been on the stock. I actually think having these dudes as the investing arm of the GP bank to be quite terrifying. And would probably end up as a blessing for those whose moneys are vested with them.

Normal banking instiutions tend to focus on companies with big market cap becuase they are the only ones which can justify a reasonable ROI for the amount of money they have. But, Digital banks are set to terrorise small and mid caps ar least for the near future.

3) Myeg and Bigpay are actually on my radar for movements as well. But with Myeg, I'm a little hesitant to call as a prospectice digital bank. Mostly for two reasons
A) they have diversified oddly recently into the health sector as well as national security. All are good calls for share price however it does leave the company in an oddly over extended position project wise. And none of these business contribute significantly towards banking service.

B) political aspect, everyone is waiting for whether or not myeg gets the e-govt contract renewed. With socso having to clairfy not working with Myeg and MOH having to retract their statement that the myeg test kit was fake. I can only assume some govt entities are unhappy with MyEG. Of course, the renewal delay may just be the govt way of showing their unhappynes and they may renew it once lesson is administered.

The next statement is not meant to be taken as a buy call for GP and is only meant as a general observation. But between a company that has a history of financial loss vs a company who offended GOM, I think I will believe in pettyness of officals and side with the "loss".

With that being said... come to think of it.. still dont know who the govt is or will be... lol

@quest12

If ur interested in it as a trading instrument. The event to watch for is the outcome of the meeting. If succeed in name change to lagenda property and stock consolidation is approved then you need to track volume to guage interest in this stock..it may jump due to intereet from speculators as a possible goreng stock prior to consolidation. I am not sure about protocol as to when they actually determine base value. If they set it as 0.03 at the meeting then there will be no chance of price exceeding that. If they announce it simply as price to be determoned at a later point then theres a lot of chance for the prices to get a little crazy..

If from an investor perspective.. 2 options

Buy now as the price wont matter as it's a long term hold. So the lows and highs have nothing to do with you.

Another perspective is wait for consolidation and the inevitable price drop to take place before you enter.in ordsr to maximise your capital gain.

Basically scenario 1 and 3 would require you to closely monitor the volume movements daily.(normally i would say price as well but drobertp40 is right currently very little volume so not much chance of price moving anywhere)

@quest12
That's harder to call. Mostly becuase of the stock consolidation exercise. Assuming that shareholders agree to the 25:1 ratio.. the share value may be set at 0.75 or 0.625 (depending on whether 0.03 or 0.025 is used as base value). I suspect that for awhile the price should see a dip from there in normal circumstances.

However there are some factors to consider, I expect the consolodation would take place end july/August so depends on how the market views the property sector at the time.if hungry for property then it could go up.

Another aspect is that althought the financial reports have been crap for the last two years. You should also consider that they changed focus directly towards property development starting on 4 projects. No esrnings there as there was nithing to sell.

However, 2 of the 4 projects have been compeleted,been fully sold and the keys are slated to be handed over in the later half of the year.so there should be positive earnings by qr4 which should be helpful towards share price.and it might not be surprising if they decide to declare dividends just to boost share price. The remaining projects are due next year I think.. and i believe have sold around 60% of units

Mostly, this stock is on my watchlist becuase its geared towards affordable housing, sub-200k. Which is quite appropriate if you consider what the economy is like. It might not be sime darby or sunway property but it should still have a good demand to supply too.

Just to play devils advocate on the issue of being tencents subsidary as I am sincerely interested in this POV.

The current license issue is basically a pilot program dont you think it may be more harmful having an overseas ownership when it comes to deciding qualification for a BNM license.

Oh sure if they become subsidary then they could basically just directly represents tencents working digital bank directly for the license.

But I think a direct control from overseas interest may be an issue and could be more harmful to chance of obtaining the license at least for the first round of licenses.

Plus, if you were a director of a possible "soon to be be" national bank.. do you think it's more beneficial to do it on your own or give up controlling interest and its profits to someone else. I know everything has a price. But from the interviews I have read of CCP the guy strikes me as confident bordering arrogant. The company seems to basically run on the force of his charisma alone. So it seems unlikely he would sell his stake easily.

This is only a possible speculation and I haze zero proof behind it... nut is it possible that qr for GP is so good and that's why CCP is constantly picking up shares... as he is confident it will jump once it's out..

I do agree that there is a strong element of force buying/selling here...with the way the wall keeps moving...

That being said.. I am a little curious as to the logic of expecting the price to constantly increase just on the basis of the good news/ press releases that have come out. Frankly, there is no chance of seeing profit from all these acquisitions in the next 1- 2 years so the expectations of all those who gave up on this counter seems a bit out of Sync with reality.

IMO, the various recent business forays wherher it is kiplepay, visa integration with kiplepay, cloud computing and e-kyc are towards building a support structure for a digital banking business.

The BNM actually requires that those who apply for the license must show they have a business eco-system that can qualify as a digital banking instituion. So that's what they are doing. Building it brick by brick.

Furthermore, if we refer to singapores recent digital banking license. BNM will probably offer 2 types... one being retail banking and the other being wholesale banking. I suspect that GPs aim is wholesale banking which targets SME's becuase the whole pont of this license is so that SME's can get support from a bankijg instiution. Where in normal cirumstances they are ignored by large bankers.

It may help if a change in mindset from "trader" to "investor" is more applicable for this counter. The price jump from 0.5 to 1.6 was only becuase they asserted they wished to pursue a digutal and there was never anything that actually supported the jump. From an investing view point, you could view that few other counters have done so much to get a digital banking license.

Other contenders such as Grabpay,boostpay are more geared towards retail banking. Or at least they dont have any infrastructure designed to help SME. In support of this claim, I believe singapores grabpay was for a retail bank license.

So, for me GP is still in play. I have purchased at 0.72 and at 0.62 and will hopefully pick up more at 0.52. Besides we havent even gotten to the point yet where GP has submitted its application yet. I dont even think BNM is accepting it yet due to covid delays.

For me two key events for price movement is the day they apply and the day the BNM announces. Only when those two events take place can I better judge to top-up or exit

As for those planning on getting in on this counter. You need to weigh the risk and assess whether or not this is a viable investment.

Good luck to everyone still holding. To those who left this counter I wish you all the best in your future trades, so wish us luck!

yep the buy's have been steadily increasing. I tried to top up more at 0.025 in the evening session and there was already a queue there for 0.03

what's the method to determine parent company of a sdn bhd?

usually when I see the same private co. name as the listed it turned out to be a subsidary but it seems to be a mistake easy to make as bernama reported it as hextar global and hextar rubber

oh well.. I'm just surprised by the reporting style. I'm basically a new investor so I haven't seen a scenario like this before.

heck bernama did even better.. they just cited it as global and rubber
https://www.bernama.com/en/business/news.php?id=1853650

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/mysterious-sharp-rise-hextar-globals-share-price

"However, it is worth noting that Hextar does not own a single share in Rubberex."

Is edgemarkets playing stocks now? Why on earth are they acting like the price movement is a surprise to investment fraternities.

In their previous article

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/hextar-rubber-acquires-more-stake-rubberex-triggers-mandatory-takeover

Chemical firm Hextar Global Bhd's executive director Datuk Ong Choo Meng "and" his 90%-held Hextar Rubber Sdn Bhd have acquired an additional 20.63% stake in Rubberex, raising their collective interest to 50.18%

The even cited that

"the duo or joint offerors are obliged to extend a mandatory takeover offer to acquire all the remaining 138.21 million Rubberex shares which are not already owned by them at the same RM1.80 per share, cash."

Ending the article with

"The offerors, however, intend to maintain the listing status of Rubberex on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia."

I can understand if an article was misreported. We are human so no big deal but why on earth do you write an article one way and then act surprise when the market reacts to it.

The new article has changed it that only the director has to make an offer.

I keep seeing 2-3million dancing around fron 0.695 to 0.69

actually ccp was asked about it and he declined to reply.
it currently looks like the price is being suppressed to exactly 0.69

Good Lord, Ageson became a political rally thread. Pakatan Ageson?

the WA is warrant... avoid as your a newbie or will die.. if u purchase without research.. the one without WA is the the one you buy

If your still unsure what i mean then you can look up "Value Contracts"

@Luckydanny correction if you read the contract on bursa.
The amount of sand - 150million is pretty much an indicative amount of how much they expect to send in a year once fully up and running

The contract is limited to RM 27b.
The Price itself has not been negotiated and that makes sense since its a 15yr old contract.
So, the contract terminates once either 15 years are up or if they export sand amounting to RM 27b.

it could be that they agree 1kg is worth 1 billion and so someone carries 27 kg's to china and that would fulfill the contract.

my point to the long post is it's fine to be greedy but you cant be "too" greedy.

IMO, greed runs the market if people were not greedy then there would be no investments in the market.

That being said if we look at our current situation vaccine/gloves makes no difference. The covid stocks are all going to be pumped and there are going to be people left holding the bag at the end.

There is simply too many new retail investors playing in the market. And a recent study show that even older/wiser retail investors have actually increased their number of transactions by around 13.9%. The increase is attributed from covid lockdown boredom. The study also noted that the boredom mentality is what leads people to gambling addiction. In other words people aren't investing at this point but gambling.

It's true that greed overrides common sense. And the problem lies in too many people wanting to make a quick buck. Plus the recent volatility of the market has attracted a lot of newer investors who dont really have a plan besides let's double/triple my money. This has basically further exaggerated the market with higher highs and lower lows..

Recent news on Hertz is a good example of that. They filed for bankruptcy on May 22nd so by rights they are in liquidation mode and their shares are worthless.

But then for some reason retail investors on "robinhood" got fixated on it. And the share price went from usd 0.56 to usd 5.53 last week. At the end of the Thursday sell off it was at around USD 2.02 but on friday it's back to USD 2.83.

Hertz has applied to the court to issue about 250M new shares to take advantage of this situation. The funds raised would be used to finance the bankruptcy proceedings.

The crazy part is that this situation is not unique to Hertz. Other companies that declared bankruptcy also saw crazy interest such as JC Penney's (150%)and Whiting petroleum (800%).
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/robinhood-traders-bet-hertz-bankruptcy-stocks-despite-huge-risks-2020-6-1029292002


So yes in malaysia we speculate on covid related goods and then start these long debates on pe, eps, etc. We try to predict whether the glove sector will boom or bust in the next sector.

But the Americans made it simpler and just went straight for a bankrupt company.. no need to discuss future and pointless to dwell on the past.

@Jason85 thats where i am a little unclear.

The hong kong contract was for natural sand
The china contract was for both Sea and River Sand.

Its very likely that the Rm 2 million trial run is for the Hong kong contract as LOI outlines a minimum of 50,000MT- 55,000MT on FOB terms.
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ageson-bags-rm117m-contract-sell-natural-sand-hk-firm

As for china, the terms are a bit more complicated
"Demand capacity comprises 50 million cubic metre per year of river sand and 100 million cubic metre per year of sea sand for a duration of 15 years,"
Ageson said the mining capacity would include 30,000 cubic metres per hour, equivalent to 180 million cubic metres per year, while the transport capacity requires about 4,500 shipments per year or 50,000 tonnes per shipment.
https://www.nst.com.my/business/2020/05/589738/ageson-bags-massive-rm275bil-contract-china

had to look up.. 1 cubic meter of sand is 1,631 Kg [note found later that contract specified 1 cubic meter is 1.531 tonne but i dint use that in calculation to lazy to redo]

50 million cubic meter river sand =81,550,000,000 KG =81.55m Tonne = 73.98million MT
100 million cubic meter sea sand = 73.98 x 2= 147.96 milion MT
Total = 221.94m MT

So the target of 4500 shipments per years x 50,000MT = 225M MT. which fits

Have not looked too deeply into the pricing but with alibaba prices averaging is about USD9 x 4 =RM 36/MT.

So, 221.94 x 36 = RM 7.99 B (if they could manage this pace the contract would terminate within 4 years from start)

that actually makes sense.. .

Right now its just the sick who are going to the doc for treament. But if its a vaccine then it will be the healthy as well. So increase of Gloves are a surety.

Dint think of that.

US markets are doing quite well so far. So that's a good sign.

They seem to have the same problem as malaysia too many new retail investors. Only problem is no glove stocks for them to invest it.

I am still trying to figure out this insanity. Hertz declares bankruptcy on May 22nd and so by right its worthless. But retail investors got interested in it through RobinHood investment app. And the share prices basically got cooked from USD 0.56 to USD 5.53 (last week).

As for yesterdays sell off. the price dropped down to about USD 2.02 but today because of the rebound its at 2.78. The beautiful part of this insanity is that Hertz asked for permission to dump 246.8 million new shares on them so that they can raise money to finance the bankruptcy proceedings.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2020/06/12/bankrupt-hertz-seeks-permission-to-raise-1-billion-in-preposterous-new-stock-sale/#528270225483

And then i look at this forum and we got a buncha peeps disappointed with a 94% increase in profit and say a 270% increase in price isn't worth it.

@Apple1234

When you stated, " i expect the selling price comfort no increase much like supermax and topglove. For this quarter result i estimate selling price is increase around 5%."
Are you referring to the ASP?

if you are there may be an error in your assumption because to my knowledge the ASP rises with each passing month. So the 1 month difference between Top Glove QR and Comforts QR will have a significant lopsidedness.

Furthermore, there is another problem with your arbitrary assumption that the ASP only increased 5%. Its because right now we still have not seen signs of entering the oversupply stage.

Demand is still higher than supply that's why everyone is expanding operations as quickly as they can in order to maximize gains.

In other words, its a Sellers market. So yes, the companies may approach the big 4 first but if the big 4 are not able to take the order then it would naturally fall to companies in the size of Comfort, Rubberex, careplus. And they still have a strong ability to determine their selling price.

Another aspect that you might not have considered is the nature of the product itself. We are not dealing with mobile phones, laptops or any kind of product that has massive brand recognition. Go look up Amazon they are all blue disposable gloves meant to be used for emergencies. I sincerely doubt you could point out the difference between Top Gloves, Supermax, Hartalegas gloves if there was no box. There's nothing unique/special/magical that's going to prevent them from being disposed after use.

So then ask yourself if all the products are the same what makes the big 4 better. And the answer is simple, VOLUME.

I've dealt in import and export and from my experience. The bigger companies have the advantage because the more they produce the lower their cost. So they can supply larger volumes of product at a lower price than the smaller companies

In a buyers market, smaller companies simply cannot compete and their ASP will always be higher than the larger companies. But I repeat, its a sellers market now. Those higher ASP's mean nothing so long as the demands can be met.

I am not commenting about TP because its pointless to do so. The market will do what the market will do.

@sandcastle

You did raise a valid concern that i did consider. But then i realized that its East Malaysia and they have near total control of all their resources. A lot of business that are not possible to be done in west Malaysia can easily flourish there. For example:
http://www.epd.sabah.gov.my/v1/images/pdf/EIA/eiaguidelines/EIA_Guidelines_RiverSand.pdf?type=file

the above link is in regards to Environmental Impact Assessment needed to export River sand. Under s 2.3 Legal requirements you may note all requirements in regards to the land make use of Sabah ordinances as well as the Sabah Biodiversity Act 2000 which grants access to biological resources.

In fact, i have noticed whenever there is an announcement made by govt. regarding Malaysia. They are usually referring to West Malaysia in its entirety. East has a tendency to nod "Good for you" and then goes ahead and does its own thing.

There is a another document you may consider to the powers of the CM
https://sagc.sabah.gov.my/sites/default/files/law/MineralEnactment1999.pdf

Whereby we can see all minerals are vested in the state govt and the minister has the ability to approve or suspend any extraction of such minerals.

I havent gone to check which are the relevant laws on this matter however i am quite convinced that if the CM of Sabah makes a decision about Sabah resources they would assert it is their right to do so.

Frankly, Ginger Spice got it right as this may or may not amount to the same scenario as the timber approval. But, its not illegal. You will note that no-one questions whether or not the CM had the power to grant such approval but rather have focused on how and why he did it. So the order/approval itself has no problem.

The only thing i am still unclear about is whether or not approval is for Sea Sand as well because as far as i can tell. Sea sand export is also banned in East Malaysia

So comfort's report is expected to be out on the 18th?


https://www.marketscreener.com/COMFORT-GLOVES-37624253/calendar/
06/18/20 Q1 2021 Earnings Release (Projected)
09/24/20 Interim 2021 Earnings Release (Projected)
12/21/20 Q3 2021 Earnings Release (Projected)
03/31/21 FY 2020 Earnings Release (Projected)

yep.. its gonna be a little crazy tomo... probably another health care round. since that seems to be the go to solution

well i've done my good deed for the day :P

I noticed that a few simply wall articles had some interesting headline about dbe but at the end of the article they said it was doing horribly against other companies in its industry. But i noticed that they were still comparing it to the Food Sector.

Not bad one email full of citations and they responded a day later.

"Thank you for bringing this to our attention. We source all of our data from S&P Capital IQ and I believe that when we wrote this article KLSE:DBE as a company was classified by our provider to be in the food industry. I have now checked our provider's data again and it now quotes the MY real estate industry, rather than the food industry. So it appears that this change of industry you mention has been taken on board. Our site also reflects this now too"

The articles haven't been changed :( but they did correct information regarding real estate on the .So PE of 8.2 is good value when compared to industry standard of 8.7

hmm i wonder if this can be made into an issue... Original proposal was for sand from Terangannu and Pahang but the two new partners mentioned in the doc hold license from Sabah.

Smart guys though circumvented that initial article where Minister said they had no approved AP.

"The Joint Venture will be relying on the said special approval letter dated 7 October 2019 from Chief Minister Department of Sabah to export sand. As such, BDSB does not require the approved permit from the Energy and Resources Ministry for the export of sand."

I was wondering about the 2 Million start up as well.
100K TONS at current sand price of sand RM 32 = 3.2m (Their price may be lower though)

I am using the FOB rate of USD 8 (xRM4) from ALIBABA
so not sure how much insurance and freight will be? the freight should be cheaper than usual though as logistics was decimated by covid
https://www.alibaba.com/countrysearch/MY/river-sand.html

The only thing i am not clear on is if it takes 1 to 2 months or 1 to 3 months as there is a typographical error in the doc.
"one (1) to two (3)months"


if they can nail it down to 2 vessels a month their revenue will probably be 6.4 x 3 = 19.2 (at the least)/per quarter.
They are gonna need to increase the number of vessels if they want to make the 15yr dead line with China. Plus lets not forget the Hong Kong Deal. and whatever future deals they make.

So ladies and gentleman it looks like we have a "wonderful" business here.
Hopefully no reports for a while so i can accumulate

hmm the document used Feburary price as a measure and the calculation was illustrative only.

If using the current prices then...

Closing market price of 0.03 = adjusted price of 0.75 per share
The EP for warrant remains the same at 1.25.

I am new to the stock market. Has anyone gone through a share consolidation exercise before?
Whats the normal protocol?

@jackkkk i agree with your sentiments. i honestly have a lot of trust in this company but Airasia truly has a long road to travel. Airasia truly revolutionized an industry that was stagnating with their business model. Furthermore, they did far more in bringing Malaysia to the world than MAS or any airlines ever could.

That being said, i have to give full marks for the bean counters of Berkshire. Their calculation for USD 10 billion per airline to get past the disaster appears to be spot on. After all, those airlines serve a population of 300million whereas AA serves a tenth @ 30M. So from their perspective to get AA through this crisis it would need approx USD 1B or MYR4.25B.

However, its unlikely AA's woes will end with its demise. Repeating what you said
Great brand value, resilient and smart management. are the advantages to AA.

More importantly, in an industry which is always plagued by losses.AA has managed to carve out a niche for itself by being profitable. Furthermore, you can tell that the AA team is doing everything they can to cut expenses with plans to withdraw from loss making routes.

As such it is unlikely creditors would ever force it into bankruptcy at worst the next two years are going to see token to no dividends and share prices are going to be at its lowest. It could be a lucky thing for some investors as they would have an opportunity to be like the first round of investors sticking with it from its initial steps.

@secretinvestor8888 i am actually curious about something one of your earlier estimates for price fall was around 0.55, i think and for Louis7777 its around 0.7 can i ask the reasons for this particular price range.

My estimate is somewhere between Low to mid 60's as an entry point.
I avoided the 50's range as that was in the category of AA getting the announcement of No Business to be done until further ordered.

Currently, cons definitely outweigh the pros. Specifically, Airasia themselves expect to only to get out of the hole by 2022.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Transportation/AirAsia-to-slash-workforce-by-30-considers-10-stake-sale

Which is inline with my expectations. The company in 2019 had an operating expense of about 2+ billion per quarter. 1billion was for fuel, 400m for maintenance, 400m for other charges and about 500m for staff. At a 50% discount for staff, maintenance and other charge for around 650m in expenses .

The fuel is a bit tougher to pin down first of i assume they have contracts which they cant back out off so they have to take delivery of it. Anyway the shelf life of aviation fuel is around 3 months or so. so that is basically going to end up as a loss in their books. Anyway discount 50% for the sake of streamlining and they are still running with a 1.15b loss for the QR.

Selling 10% stake for around 300m
Govt planing on giving aid of RM 350M to 3 carriers Malaysian Airlines and Malindo =probably bulk to MAS then AA and then MAL so maybe 200:100:50
Jv Collab =?

The company is bleeding cash and all the above measures may not even offset 50% of the loss in this qr.

Plus there is the issue of resumption of flights. in the short term, there should be an abundance of customers as they are people who haven't met family and friends for 3 months but let alone the distance conditions. The fact is alot of peoples travel habits have changed over this 3 months. Im more inclined to believe car sales will go up as people would prefer to travel alone in the safety of their car than to fly domestically. So Its going to be a difficult next 2 years for them.

Anyway, my assumption for 0.6x is mostly because of the brand factor. This is a company i have a lot of fond memories of. And i am sure many feel the same. So, im mostly assuming that if its a slow gradual drop in price it should settle there with many thinking its a company that has good value investment potential.

of course if there is a spate of irrational panic sells from events such as next 3-4 QR or other Unforeseen circumstances, etc then fond memories be damned..and hello 0.55.

looks like someone had fun with the ageson price. i wanted to topup at 0.16
but saw a buy wall at 13m vs sell wall at 2.xm
was considering 0.165 when i saw it changed from 12m to 3m
Then it moved from 10 m to 5m

i figured what the hell and placed an order for 0.16.. it got filled in like a minute. :P
Then i saw the price had dropped to 0.155 with the same damn wall being built on both sides. this was in a span of like 5 minutes

But it looks like they moved on to another target now because there is a relatively normal buy and sell wall at 0.16 to 0.165

@Pirateboon your guess at 0.12 is actually a fair guess as it seems to be the psychological fair price before the news of the sand contract broke out. And there is the added pressure that Top gloves report is probably going to turn the market into another glove market for a few days. Everyone will probably start shifting funds to supermax, comfort, Esceram, Ruberex before their reports are out.

I believe most counters are down a few points at this stage and it will likely take 2-3 days for market to go back to some level of normalcy

In the AGM of BH, Warren Buffett did clarify on the issue of why he sold the Airline industry. He himself did say he has a lot of faith in the Airline Industry but because of the covid issue. They estimated that they would need to inject around 10 billion in each of the airlines to offset the effect of the crisis. That was not something they were willing to tie up their liquidity with and it does fits his profile to not take unnecessary risk with his business. He was actually pretty positive about the business as a whole its just that covid introduced to many variables.

https://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/we-study-billionaires/ (You can listen to the podcast here Part 1 around 1:50)

I did buy @ 0.72 and intended to hold forever but exited on Friday at 0.895. I wont bother with details like future financial reports, rising costs, no profits or even the fact that airasia is a brand that's too attractive to newbie investors who are prone to panic sells as i am sure we all have a clue to that.

My main reason is that our currently reality is an odd one. How many of us are actually willing to leave home and go outside unless its for something necessary. Now imagine leaving the country? So in the mid-term i think Airlines in general have a bumpy route ahead. That being said i still have a lot of trust in this company and hope to re-enter in 0.6xx if a possible round of panic sells hit.

But in the next week with the craze of the market being the way it is.. it really is quite possible to hit 1.2 and higher provided of course the focus doesn't end up entirely on property/health.

So i wish those who are all holding all of the best in the trades.

I'm not to sure if this is helpful for you and honestly i'm an extremely new trader on the stock market.
That being said, i did dabble in the crypto market in 2014-2015.

Specifically, i was involved in the buying and selling of alternate crypto-coins. Looking at today's market, if BTC is tier 1 and lite-coin and etherium was tier 2. The market I was dealing with was tier-3 coins. It was a lot crazier back then with an average of 3-5 new coins being *coughed* created everyday.

On average, maybe 10-15 coins would be added to an exchange every week. And for a while it would be a constant cycle of pump and dumps.

At the time, there wasn't much in the way of Fundamentals oh sure we could take about the number of coins to be generated/the code/the concept but it was pretty much pointless because they were pretty much clones of each other just with different names. Besides, none of that really matters because the most important question always went unanswered, who is using it?...

TA was mostly the only explanation one could give if they wanted to explain a trend on the market. Heck, i remember everyone getting excited if they could spot a pump and would inform everyone else to join in to pump. Human's are funny that way they never think about what if they are the one being dumped. And even if they are, it's ok, next time i wont be so greedy and just sell earlier.

TA skills developed by a normally successful trader on the Stock Market could not be applied to the coin market or at least the ones who tried had pretty bad ends. The market was too unregulated and wild. The coin's almost had no history to speak off with oldest being a few months old.

Imagine dealing in a stock market with 100% retail investors. One sneeze could cause a massive wave of panic buying or selling.

The smarter one's reverted to the basic concept of TA, apply moving averages over time, taking note of anomalies in price movements, etc. Those actually had decent results at scalping. I remember reading on one forum where the guy was so happy his ability to spot pump and dumps had improved from like 15%-20% to just around 50-55% and offered to teach for a price. I believe a lot of people took him up on it.

Anyway, from the above rather long winded explanations. I think TA does work provided 2 criterion are met
1) it must be a stable environment (for stocks it should be bursa rules and reg, the law, security commission)
2) there must be enough data points to actually establish a recognizable pattern (this was seriously lacking in crypto trading at the time).

The approach of going back to basics and building on it showed marked improvements as such it is conceivable that TA can be perfected to a point where it can predict price movements in normal environment to a very high degree but its very hard to make money in such a stable market.

Trouble is TA tends to go haywire during volatile times. Pandemic,QR which shows a 100% increase in profit,etc and IMO its because there are too many outside variables that are not normally considered being ignored.

For example the recent rubber glove craze, the oddities from what i have managed to note over the last few days are

1)price movement was quite heavily influenced by retail investors,
2)Foreign investment went outwards rather than inwards. It is to my understanding that this is anomalous as usually it has always been foreign funds to have been first to take advantage of a down market.

In summary, If your a pure TA specialist and only TA then you should be able to make a decent living during a normal period of time (but the world is not an utopia so it wont last long.) A purist TA will likely starve in times of panic unless they revert to use of the basic concepts of TA to make ends meet by scalping.

Something else will always be needed to supplement TA skills be it FA, voices from God or even a blindfolded thrown dart. Otherwise, all the TA skills will end with buying high and selling low or chasing trends at their end.

UPDATE 1-Malaysia's AirAsia considers fundraising, JV options to ride out pandemic

* Airline received fundraising proposals amid pandemic hit
* Discussions ongoing for possible JVs and collaborations
too
* Airline may decide soon on capital to be raised
* Has held talks with South Korea's SK Holdings - source

(Updates with source confirmation, background; adds bullets)
KUALA LUMPUR, June 4 (Reuters) - Malaysia's flagship budget
carrier AirAsia Group Bhd <AIRA.KL> is evaluating proposals for
raising capital to strengthen its equity base and liquidity, the
company said in a statement Thursday.
AirAsia said it has been presented with proposals from
investment bankers, lenders and potential investors to help the
airline "weather the storm" caused by the new coronavirus
pandemic.
It also has ongoing deliberations with a number of parties
for joint-ventures and collaborations that may result in
additional investments in specific segments of the group's
business, it said in the bourse filing.
The airline said it may soon reach a decision on the
proposals and amount to be raised.
"Any decision made will take into account the Company's
business needs and the interests of the Company, its
shareholders and other stakeholders," it said.
The airline made the statement in response to a report by
local newspaper The Star citing sources saying AirAsia was in
talks to sell a 10% stake to South Korea's SK Holdings through a
private placement.
SK Holdings, the third largest Korean conglomerate with
businesses spanning memory chips to energy, and AirAsia have
been locked in negotiations for the past few months and SK sees
a stake purchase as an opportunistic acquisition, said one
source aware of the matter.
The source said AirAsia had been pitching to get an investor
outside the aviation sector.
AirAsia chief Tony Fernandes said in April that the airline
was seeking a government loan as the industry began to take a
hit from the virus outbreak. [nL4N2BR2JD]

(Reporting by Liz Lee in Kuala Lumpur and Anshuman Daga in
Singapore; Editing by Elaine Hardcastle)

@super_newbie IMO if you consider that for April the rest of the industries were on holiday. You can predict the next qr is gonna be pretty neutral to negative for a majority.

Only companies like Gloves and their related enterprises, Medical, etc are in the minds of investors guaranteed to actually turn a profit.

So other than bargain hunters, most should turn to companies like supermax,etc so whatever their share price is at is pretty sustainable and likely to grow.

@bullpiano thanks alot bull.. I'm pretty sure it played out that way despite the sale being on the morn and the buy being later. I'm guessing for them it's just Friday... will speak to customer service about it. Thanks once again

@nyrwed Bingo... that's the problem. I dint think about rechecking the realised p/l.. the 5.75 buy avg was pulled up to 6.82 and sold at 7.57.. ok thanks.

@goldagent I'm well aware of that. So I wasnt counting on that :p

@stocknewbie123 prior to this the only other transactions for the specific supermx shares was at around 5.75 but that got sold on fri.. which also leads to another issue noted. Rakuten credited me an RM7 rebate for that transaction which is odd since I held it for 3 days. I shouldnt be qualified for that rebate.

hello everyone, extremely new investor here (like a month old) i was wondering if anyone could clarify an issue i came across with Rakuten. I entered a Contra trade for supermax @7.7 on Friday and i distinctly remember watching the share price rise to 7.9x and crash at 4.53 pm to 7.70. Day ending with a net p/l of 0.

After that rakuten went into maintenance and i could only access it today (Sunday,31st). The portfolio changed my average listed acquisition rate shows 6.75 and now that trade is in profit.

I checked the auto-generated statement and it showed for 7.7 same with email. Is this an error or does it happen often? Because its going to make accounting a nightmare. I am not even sure if its only a front end issue so if for example i were to sell the shares at 7.70 tomorrow would it be calculated as a loss or profit.