Maybe AQRS will issue Bonus Warrant C

Fundamentals OK relative to sector

In a genuine uptrend, stock runs way ahead of confirmation of news/ earnings whatever

This round we have Pan Borneo tender in 4Q and potential roll out of major infra projects.

If I were to speculate, it's going to run a bit furhter, have a sharp pullback and then run again closer to these positives

I think we should ride with this, too early to sell. What do you think? 0.375 is the resistance and there's heavy trading right now 37-37.5. It appears to me an even chance only whether it will break out above 37.5. A little uneasy holding on, but I'll hold. Any insights appreciated @bojed, active stock, quiet forum - good sign lol

Looks like accumulation could have started in Jan'23 when volume first spiked

They heard you



bojed

COME ONNNNNNN

20 hours ago

will the much awaited break out materialise?

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content_view.jsp?id=74872&ety=com&h=ec1e2e95c02ec416a000d4800ead205e&back=%2Fcontent.jsp%3Fety%3Dcom%26com%3DBAB%2520MK%26comname%3DBumi%2520Armada%2520Bhd

nikicheong

Anyone have the report from RHB, UOB or CIMB, pls share

If Armada dont go up over next few months quite sad case de

When high NAV low earnings counter cant go up, we say stocks trade on earnings

So this one high earnings high NAV how lol

A true B not true

Few Bursa counters consistently have this liquidity and volatility with some reasonable fundamentals. This is more volatile than MYEG



i3lurker

look at the age of the FPSOs
A) the cashflow is just the payback for the huge initial investments.

very lucky if can walk away with small loss.

B) from the gambling viewpoint there are much more volatile counters out there

3 minutes ago

at this point i think weakness relates to the loss of future prospects as once touted, and reputational credibility issues than kraken itself. Kraken issue obviously over for now

3Q will be worse given similar loss in revenue + recognising HSP restoration cost

But by 3Q results we will be half way through 4Q. Assumming no hiccoughs it will be churning out 200M after tax each quarter

A pity they withdrew from FPSO Cameia. This balance sheet can take on 1 large FPSO like Yinson. Armada's cashflow really not bad

There's quite a bit going on for it. Most of the contracts will pay this year. Impending claims against govt for VO also coming. Profits will surge this year if not next. Together with increase in profit, gearing will reduce significantly and once pledged FDs released they will be in a strong cash position. Launch Gambang Pahang next year easy sell affordable housing. But clearly somethign is amiss. Market is still valuing it below $200M. Market is always right...what is missing

Selling and buying a few rounds...my average here is still 36c. Difficult job this one.

This sleepy counter. When it does hit 36c I will hold tight

There's a gap in contract news from when it was high flying 1+ till now. What happened to Sedco supplying cement for Pan Borneo? What happeend to joint-bidding with Suria for Pan Borneo contracts? From Sabah it seems they have now shifted focus to Pahang...

This Yinson-WA buyer...big money. Been many weeks. It's not easy to resist the temptation to sell. I am now running out of warrants to sell. It takes all of my energy and then a bit more to resist selling my balance half to them now hehe

Recall that it wasn't easy to push that stock down to 43c, operators in play. So the large free float = too many sharks and they killing each other. So our job is to pick the right team not speculate on results lol

Armada move has always been weird...remember that time where everyone here knows thanks to Nicky that it Kraken restored to 90% and that morning it dived to 43c and after lunch announcement made +8%.

Since most retailers like us won't cut loss but love to average down, most of us have then made money from that point. The question is who lost money then........

Really dont have to speculate too much on results...this is FPSO, it's more or less there, more or less predictable, everyone here knows a thing or two about it and one-off matters immaterial.

Yes. Share consolidation is the bonus. Well it shows that they care about share price and want to do something about it. Above $2 invites a new class of shareholders, liqudity should ironically improve which then leads to expansion in valuation. Buy it before ex-consolidation. $2.80 = $1.12 conservatively and $1.40-1.60 range the moment Fed pauses China recovers and shortage emerges in 4Q. Lots of IFs lol

Proposed 5-to-2 share consolidation

Results announced

Yes the sector's run coincide with AQRS's peak results these few quarters. Even doubling it is still inexpensive, and even before any new Govt contract. But what is cheap can remain cheap indefinitely, we will need UEMS to continue leading, don't fall!

@Kim Sua's heart is with Yinson that's why

This feels like a spring. Press press press. Wait for the bounce ya

lol if calculate like that do you realise it's worth nothing if you use a PE of 5? 🤣

MCA sure main main, tong kooi ong dont main main har

The beauty is years of outperformance didnt seem to get to the heads of management - reflecting that they have not peaked. Still doing all the right things and moving a step at a time to RE.

What a company

If you believe in oil, you can't really wait on Hibiscus. Just spread it out and buy over multiple batches. Oil is volatile, individual stock chart less meaningful when the driving force is oil price

Tomorrow Q1 FYE 2024 results

Or the devil 🤣 Im sure many sailang because of u

You the man nikicheong

Look at warrants buy queue...then look at mother shares. What.

It was only by a stroke of luck I swapped all my Armada to Yinson previously. It didnt even look like a good idea until yesterday. Luck.

Agree. Always buy good management.

Re the latest announcement for those not following Yinson closely, this was the deal:

Yinson was also awarded a purchase option to buy 100% stake in the completed
FPSO Atlanta for a cash price amounting to c.20% of the capex cost of the asset
(US$95m out of the estimated capex cost of US$468m), which must be
exercised by early-CY24F. If Yinson does not exercise this purchase option, its
role will be limited to the EPCIC work of converting the vessel, and to operate
and maintain the vessel for the first two years after commissioning. If Yinson
goes ahead to exercise the purchase option, then it will be entitled to BBC
revenue and O&M revenue for 15+5 years. We expect Yinson to exercise the
purchase option given the very attractive IRRs on this project.

One of YP’s goals is to increase our portfolio of proftable
assets, creating a long-term EBITDA of USD500 million. We
are reasonably optimistic that this goal can be achieved
given current market conditions which are favourable to
contractors. We will continue to be very selective about
the projects that we bid for, choosing to participate only
in those projects that will enable our portfolio to shift as
quickly as possible to meet our ambitious climate targets.
We believe that rising energy demand and high oil prices
will continue to ensure there are more than enough project
opportunities for YP in the years to come

@novel23 ya small potatoes no $ to buy this stock that doesnt move

Yinson’s order book represents RM97 billion for the next 25 years. This provides a stable revenue outlook for the foreseeable future, giving us confdence that we will be able to comfortably meet our operational needs.
The Group’s business model of earning stable recurring income from asset-leasing contracts is evidenced by the steady growth
of our non-EPCIC activities’ cash flows from operations over the past years. In FYE 2023, the net cash flows generated from operating activities for non-EPCIC activities was RM1.3 billion, a 49% increase from the previous year. Looking back over a 2-year time horizon, Yinson’s operating cash flows from non-EPCIC activities have more than doubled since FYE 2021

Holding up well despite oil price volatility. This counter is fundamentally so strong, just have to be patient and sell high buy low accordingly. A little dull, quite simple, but really not that risky...

anyway i thank the sharks, definitely not stingy, good counter to play

you're half right lol if no tax means break-even, -200 + 200 = 0 not 200

That small movement with some volume in the warrants is reminiscent of the movements preceding the last rise, good luck 😉

For those like me who are very bored waiting for a market going nowhere...here you go extract from a newsletter:

The longer this goes on, the more convinced I am that stocks are going to resolve higher. It’s not as if the stock market doesn’t know about the debt ceiling deadline; it’s on the calendar, and it’s not that far away. I don’t know whether it will get resolved on time (I tend to think that it won’t), but when it does, you’re probably going to have a multi-standard deviation move higher.

There is a huge amount of cash waiting to be put to work. I have been getting emails from inexperienced investors telling me they have cash to put to work but are waiting until after the debt ceiling is resolved. Multiply that by millions of people, and you understand the scale of what the market might do in June.

This too shall pass. If things are boring now, you may as well enjoy it. At some point in the future, things will be exciting, and it probably won’t be the kind of excitement you like. But periods of boredom can last a long time. Pretty much all of 2005 and 2006 were a snoozefest. And you know what happened after that.

The range is so tight. A 10% move either way has not been seen for a long time. A 10%+ move to the upside will propel the warrants - that much is clear. So far so good for warrants in that it responds fairly to mother share price. It's a low premium play. Unlike some very high premium warrants that even if they respond to mother share move you get scared because it implies such high premium

It's so illiquid. Every day 0.1-0.2% of shares outstanding traded only. The downside - no liquidity no premium...the upside - liquidity comes in easy peasy for it to charge up since we know a huge chunk is held by long term players who won't sell...

@fregend

Depends on from where you look at...it's still much better than post rights issue. For a while hanging in there it has been frustrating and for many months after rights issue didnt move and it has always looked cheap. Then it charged up and traded almost every day at 2.70 for 2 months. Then the abrupt drop, the good thing is the quick rebound from 2.30 range. So hopefully 2.50+ holds and this is a very good price already considering the broader market.

I think most of us are disappointed that Agogo did not do much to share price. Back when they won Anna Nery, the share price just shot up for multiple weeks. Agogo is bigger, the terms better, but from 2.70 it came down. Figures. Yinson doesn't disappoint but the share price this round is kind of disappointing lol

Valuation is very rich...vs Hibiscus for instance. Well, for those already invested, hopefully the rich valuations stay rich.

Taking a break for 2 years may not make much difference...they are still bidding for 1 more BP. And then they will have no rooms to take on anymore anyway, and they willhave to start selling stuff or monetise the green energy side which we can't tell how much is priced in. See how well Sembcorp is doing w that green energy rhetoric...

Existing ones that paid up through Covid all proven to be good
Agogo is credible - 50/50 Eni/BP JV, no issue

Anna Nery & PDB (Maria) a bit worrying because it's Petrobas. Unexpected delays in Anna Nery for instance, solely due to Brazil regulations not Yinson...so long as oil holds here it will be fine.

The main reason Yinson is trading at such a premium over peers is the credibility of counter-parties risk in addition to the gigantic order book.

Will Yinson move like Waseong?

Which chart is better before Waseong's breakout

Yinson right, analyst wrong - 3 months ahead of analysts' "conservative" estimation. Yinson never disappoints