Good QR but loose momentum.

There is a hope after TAAN has taken over Swkplnt. They did quite well in managing plantation business.

VenFx. Last QR, Nova has reported highest turnover in a quarter even without increasing in Debtor. Cash inflow is quite healthy. It means the management did not push up in sales the final quarter as they did last year. Anyway, it is hard to say in stock market. lolz.

Back to uptrend mode. QR announcement this week?

Speakup. PE is much lower if you exclude one off losses from Deconsolidation of subsidiary 2 quarters ago.

No more cheap sales. why Redtone has moved up do fast in early morning?

It's time rebound until QR announcement. Many players have cut loss and moved to Jaks already.

I am trying at 50.5 cents. yesterday, hit all the ways from 52 to 51.

Believe that Nova Revenue is sustainable. Here's the information in AR.

Extracted from AR 2019:

- FY 2019 - New products were launched into the market including Nova Enzymes tablets, Nova AstaOmega 3 Softgel, Sustinex Vegetable Oil Blend Powder & Nova ALA-SR 300mg tablet.
- Nova Wellness Partner Programme (NWPP) increased from 112 to 118.
- NWPP outlets up from 220 to 243
- Increased in Herpa-P sales from 2nd clinical trials.

Raider. Jaks hit almost 50% gain in a month. What about your Insas? That's why we don't play ego in share market. Making money is more important.

VenFx. It’s now much dependent on QR and Herpa-P clinical tests. If Nova is able to complete 3rd clinical test next year, it may trade PER above 30x.

Perstima needs money to build a new factory in Philippines. Capital Commitments shows RM 239 million. It seems Perstima is unable to maintain dividend payout due to major Capex. Some more, market is quite challenging due to influx of cheap China tinplates.

Hopefully, this is the final round price consolidation before breaking 60 cents and up further.

According to AR 2019. Nova is tightly held by 20 individuals plus Phillip Capital for 88% of the shareholding. It's up to them to make a call.

This is the 2nd times of price dipped to 54.5 before staging a strong rebound. I was waiting to top up at 53 cents.

Rebound so fast. Yoyo game?

Raider. What more to expect with 30% profit earned from Jaks in a month? lolz

Probability. Yeah. Better move up slowly. IBs love to issue call warrants to take advantage of volatility of share price movements.

CE issued by CIMB is expiring end of Jan 2020. Think they will press down the share price again after the QR announcement.

Takaful CC, CD and CF are expiring end of this month.

Based on HL Invest research report title " In a Bittersweet Spot " on 16 Sep 2019, it mentioned that 'As for its family bancatakaful business, credit-related products growth should taper and normalize from 3Q19 on wards, given contribution from Bank Rakyat on a full-year basis has come to a tail end, coupled with a high base effect ". However, It did not happen. Takaful remains on track of achieving double digits growth.

Family Fund Revenue growth QoQ
30 Sep 19 - 24%
30 Jun 19 - 34%
31 Mar 19 - 32%
31 Dec 18 - 50%
30 Sep 18 - 45%

30 Jun 18 - 8%
30 Mar 18 - 6%
31 Dec 17 - 0%
30 Sep 17 - 5%
30 Jun 17 - 3%

Easy money. Go go go!

Stock market is changing too fast including repercussions.

There’s an illustrative example published by IFRS.org in comparison between IFRS 4 and IFRS 17. ....The final profit and loss shows a slightly improvement whereas Revenue plunging due to different basis in recognizing revenue.

https://www.ifrs.org/-/media/project/insurance-contracts/ifrs-standard/ifrs-17-effects-analysis.pdf/
Page 83

unfavourable upcoming MFRS17 accounting change” as claimed by HL Invest. Is it really the new MFRS 17 impact to insurance company profit and loss? It seems like very very serious issues to insurance company...profit plunging??? Lolz

Here’s the summary explanation:

The presentation of the income statement also changes minorly, but the change is important. Written premiums are not important anymore it is now about services provided. So earned premiums are replaces by service income and service expenses. As the name implies the income and expenses connected to the services which the insurer has provided in the period. Also for the income statement will the specification change largely:

Specification whether the service income and expenses are connected to a service which was delivered in the past, current period or even future period
Just like the balance sheet do we also have to divide the changes of the insurance liability into Fair Value Approach, the Modified Retrospective Approach or the Full retrospective approach / regular contracts.

PAT
Dec 19 - ???
Sep 19 - 113m
Jun 19 - 80m
Mar 19 - 96m

Dec 18 - 90m
Sep 18 - 83m
Jun 18 - 50m
Mar 18 - 70m

Dec 17 - 56m
Sep 17 - 48m
Jun 17 - 44m
Mar 17 - 57m


Revenue
Dec 19 - ???
Sep 19 - 753m
Jun 19 - 673m
Mar 19 - 918m

Dec 18 - 702m
Sep 18 - 649m
Jun 18 - 542m
Mar 18 - 746m

Dec 17 - 518m
Sep 17 - 472m
Jun 17 - 485m
Mar 17 - 660m

Hard to cari makan if we follow IBs analysis. The information below may provide some clues about the quantum of net contributions earned next few quarters.

Net contribution earned for Family Fund
Dec 19 - ???
Sep 19 - 570m
Jun 19 - 433m
Mar 19 - 472m
Dec 18 - 466m
Sep 18 - 408m
Jun 18 - 335m
Mar 18 - 308m
Dec 17 - 303m
Sep 17 - 289m
Jun 17 - 301m

Net contribution earned for General Fund
Dec 19 - ???
Sep 19 - 170m
Jun 19 - 103m
Mar 19 - 129m
Dec 18 - 93m
Sep 18 - 112m
Jun 18 - 103m
Mar 18 - 115m
Dec 17 - 68m
Sep 17 - 85m
Jun 17 - 77m

Game over only if its future business prospects is gloomy and unable to report better QR.

Awaiting the company to announce better QR next month and completion of 2nd clinical trials for Herpa-P early next year.

It may take a bit of time for IB to admit that their projection underestimate the growth of Takaful. They have to arrange meetings and discussions to find out the reasons behind whereas we, retailers, are able to respond swiftly without a need to go through a lengthy process.

Many IB claimed that QR growth and profits might be normalised starting 3rd Qtr. The facts is that they were wrong in making such projection based on their prejudice assumptions.

It is not possible to achieve 100% correct in our decisions. What important is that when we know we are wrong and willing to initiate a change without care much of our ego. We have to follow trend to earn money in share market rather than fighting with the facts in real life.

Great QR. Buy before IB revise their new TP.

Redtone MTNS segment Contribution:

PBT
30 Sep 19 - ???
30 Jun 19 - 5.6m (2 months)
30 Apr 19 - 7.2m
31 Jan 19 - 1.9m
31 Oct 18 - (2.5)m
31 Jul 18 - (1.9)m
30 Apr 18 - (4.5)m

Turnover
30 Sep 19 - ???
30 Jun 19 - 18.7m (2months)
30 Apr 19 - 52.3m
31 Jan 19 - 23.7m
31 Oct 18 - 8.7m
31 Jul 18 - 9.7m
30 Apr 18 - 8m

Expecting good QR in next few quarters plus NFCP. Breaking RM 1 will become reality soon.

Dealing with fatty liver
https://www.pressreader.com/malaysia/the-star-malaysia-star2/20180417/282089162360026

" More new drugs emerge ever day, but even promising ones such as glucagon-like-peptide-1 receptor agonist are still in testing or trail stages....

https://clinicalresearch.my/the-journey-of-a-clinician-researcher-on-nafld-in-malaysia-from-epidemiology-to-non-invasive-assessment-to-treatment/

Epidemiology of NAFLD

The prevalence of NAFLD in the general population was estimated to be 23% based on a study using ultrasonography on health check individuals in a private medical centre in Petaling Jaya about a decade ago.(2)“The work by Professor Dato Dr. Goh Khean Lee and his colleagues, provided primary data on the estimated prevalence of NAFLD in the general population in Malaysia,” said Dr. Chan. Recently, the prevalence of NAFLD was found to be 57% based on a study using Fibroscan on health check individuals in a public medical facility in Kuala Lumpur. The study also found that 18% of the individuals had liver stiffness measurement consistent with excessive scarring in the liver.(3)“The figures from our latest work are indeed worrisome. More concerted efforts are needed to tackle obesity and obesity-related disease such as NAFLD,” he said. The group also reported that half of the patients with diabetes mellitus seen at their hospital clinic had NAFLD,(4)and 8% of the students at their faculty had NAFLD.(5)

New GMP factory:
Upon completion of the new GMP-compliant production facility, our production capacity for functional food is expected to increase from 0.69 million bottles and 0.69 million sachets to 3.43 million bottles and 3.43 million sachets.

The construction of the new GMP Plant had commenced in August 2017 and Phase 1 is expected to be completed by September 2019. Construction of Phase 2 will commence after completion of Phase 1.

Clinical trials on Ficus Cream products for skin lightening and We have completed the pre-clinical trial on Ficus microcarpa standardised extract contained in Ficus Cream products in 2016. We intend to undertake two clinical trials for Ficus Cream products in September 2019 and to complete both by July 2020. The clinical trials are to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of Ficus Cream for skin lightening and to explore other anti-ageing properties. The trials will be conducted on two different formulations containing the Ficus microcarpa standardised extract. Each clinical trial will be an 8-week trial and will involve a group of approximately 50 participants.

If the trials are successful and Ficus Cream products are clinically proven to be effective and safe for skin lightening, we expect to strengthen the products positioning as a skin lightening agent.

All these issues is merely targeting Anwar to pressure him making a wrong decision. Anwar can simply wait for another 7 months before launching full attack.

Demand outstripped supply suddenly. Uptrend has resumed?

1st clinical trial:

The first clinical trial was completed in January 2015. Our CRO has presented us the final report of the study. From the first clinical trial, Hepar-P Capsule was proven was proven safe for long term consumption with no adverse effects reported in patients. However, the efficacy could not be concluded as not all the patients consented to the liver biopsy at the end of the clinical trial. Only 6 patients out of the 50 patients consented to repeat the liver biopsy at the end of the clinical trial. The 6 patients showed improvement in liver enzymes. The major limitation of the first clinical trial is the relatively small sample size (50 patients) and the biopsy was not repeated for most of the patients after the completion of the treatment.

Extract from prospectus:

2nd clinical trial:
We initiated the second clinical trial for Hepar-P Capsule in December 2017 and are expected to complete in December 2019. The second clinical trial is to allow for a specific claim on the effectiveness of Hepar-P Capsule for the improvement of liver health. The second trial involves patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver as well and will be administered to a larger group of participants of approximately 200 participants to further evaluate its effectiveness for liver health.

3rd clinical trial:
Third clinical trial for Hepar-P Capsule as liver protection agent;
We expect to begin the third clinical trial for Hepar-P Capsule in October 2019 and to complete in December 2020. The third clinical trial involves patients with drug induced liver injury. The third clinical trial will be administered to a larger group of participants of approximately 300 participants to further evaluate the product’s effectiveness. The third clinical trial will be a 6-month trial involving participants with elevated liver enzymes level. If the trial is successful and Hepar-P Capsule is clinically proven to be effective, the third clinical trial will allow for more empirical data to be obtained to further promote and strengthen the product positioning as a liver protection agent.

Financial facts of Nova Wellness:
Price: 0.64
PER: 21x
Gearing: Nil
Dividend yield: 3.6% ( 2.3 cents per share)

Net cash generated from operating activities:
FY 30 Jun 2019 - 13.3m
FY 30 Jun 2018 - 7.1m

PAT
30 Sep 19 - ???
30 Jun 19 - 3.71m ( excluding IPO expenses, reversal of slow moving stock & interest received)
31 Mar 19 - 2.03m
31 Dec 18 - 3.08m
30 Sep 18 - 0.85m
30 Jun 18 - 2.41m
31 Mar 18 - 1.38m

Turnover
30 Sep 19 - ???
30 Jun 19 - 9.6m
31 Mar 19 - 7.2m
31 Dec 18 - 7.9m
30 Sep 18 - 4.8m
30 Jun 18 - 8.1m
31 Mar 18 - 4.7m

It seems like waking up now.

Able Dairies Mexico (Associate) is either seriously undervalued or something out of our expectation.

Original Investment in 40% Associate - RM 21 million (as shown in latest QR)
Additional subscriptions 3.13% - RM 23.4 million or USD 5.59 million (Cash outflow)

Is the estimated market value of Able Dairies Mexico skyrocketed to RM 750 million ( RM 23.4/3.13%) due to surging in land prices after the trade war?
Market Cap of Johotin is only RM 413 million now.


Reply to Query from Bursa
2) Basis and justification in arriving at the amount of USD5,589,427.43 for the Additional Subscription.
Answer:
The total cost of investment on newly incorporated company is to purchase land, construct building, purchase of machineries and equipment, which includes installation costs, water tank, piping, etc.

Accumulate on weakness. This is a dream chasers' stock. Rally will resume after a short period of consolidation.

Original investment in associate Able Daires Mexico costs RM 21 million for 40% stakes. Now, It costs RM 23 million to acquired additional 3.13% even before the new plant starting operation. How they arrive the figures? mind boggling.

Rally resumed so fast. Go go go!

Revenue and earnings are still trending upward and the beneficially from Budget, the price will be going up further.

Share price up like nobody business. First TP 76 cents.