US may take this opportunity to kill China's economy by pumping up the price of crude oil as China is the biggest importer in the world and they are suffering scarcity of USD.

Indonesia threw a viagra yesterday. CPO production down for Oct 2019.

https://gapki.id/news/15977/harga-cuaca-membaik-saatnya-pekebun-pulihkan-kondisi-kebun

Tongher is traded at 50% discount of the peak and Aluminum price is seen trending upward. Good bargain!

TAAN was so strong today and staging a rally like nobody business.

Bet for the crude oil price rally 2020.

Market is quite efficient in responding theme play nowadays. Fast and furious!

CPO price rally would trigger capital expenditures from plantation companies in improving their operations. Expect more orders received next year.

TSH used to adopted an aggressive policy of non depreciating planting costs too but INNO adopted deprecated planting costs policy even though under the control of TSH management.

Depreciation of Property, Plant & Equipment shows RM 54.5 million for FY 30Apr19 whereas amount restated to 56.4 million for FY 30Apr18 for comparison purposes. If you read the AR 2018, the amount was , in fact, RM 28 million which was before adopting new MFRS. The additional charged of RM 28 million for depreciation of planting costs in complying new MFRS.

I3 is , in fact, a good platform for us to learn improving our skills especially for beginners. Information whether it’s relevant or irrelevant, reliable or unreliable, sharks or Ikan... Some even come here to reveal insider information of the company.

Without shark participation, market would turn into lifelessness. It’s important to equip the skills surfing with the sharks.

Working capital = Current Assets – Current Liabilities. Figures in Total working capital is seen not correctly presented.

Umcca used to be seen as an 'efficient' planter through taking advantage of aggressive accounting policy for plantation (non amortization of planting costs). The real face was revealed after compulsory adoption of new MFRS. Umcca is not an alone case. WTK and Jtiasa were adopting such aggressive accounting policy too.

Without the positive contribution from timber division, WTK will continue suffering losses. Palm oil plantation is a long-term business. It palm oil division is hardly able to deliver positive results due young mature of the trees. WTK has to wait for the next cycle of CPO price rally to enjoy fruitful harvesting.

Liquidity is building up slowly while untying the knots at this price level.

Share price is badly hit by lower profit margin reported by Scientex's plastic division. sigh...

DJ 30 companies are much much stronger than KLCI 30 in terms of revenue and earnings growth. It's too far away to care about US. We should worry about the political development in Malaysia which keeps haunting FF .

Buying quoted shares of unrelated business to Redtone. No eye see.

In future, we still hear people say making money from applying long term holding, high growth stock, high NTA, ROC, DY...monkey or octopus or whatever...It's nothing wrong so long as we can make money from the stock market consistently.

The beauty of the stock market is NO conclusion is the conclusion. Earnings power is essential but it’s also dependent on the market ie Pohuat and Liihen shows strong earning power at present but operators are not interested. It’s hard to say in short and mid term.

We can only guess that PNB has fully exited FPI based on the volume traded in past 4 weeks. You have to wait for 6 months later to read the AR 2019 to confirm its status.

It’s very likely CanOne and Johotin would switch position in terms of share price.

We are investing or trading in Bursa so we must follow the culture here to make money. Buy Tguan.

ROC would be more suitable in DJ market. It’s not really practical for Bursa market after witnessing up and down cycles in last 2 decades. KLSE is a unique market.

LPI is traded PER above 18x. It grossly overhyped given a single digit growth less than 7% over the past 2 years. FF won’t hesitate to dump a stock with such high valuations. TP below RM 10.

PBBank's has report lackluster QR in latest quarter. Revenue growth dropped to Nil and PAT slipped by 1.5% QoQ. Singapore banks has posted a much better outlook. DBS's revenue growth 13% and PAT up 15%. UOB's revenue up 12% and PAT risen 8%.

All the way to break SMA 200.

This is another over valued banking stock traded at PER 13.8x. TP 14 to trade on par with its peers in Singapore.

No more disturbing from PNB anymore. Buy.

FF doesn’t like investing in a bank without offering growth potential in near future. They will continue exit their position and invest in other market. TP 15 in year 2020.

Probability. Such technical knowledge is to serve either educator or real professional trader to build a complex algorithm through incorporating many conditions and modeling in predicting or trading shares. One day, our world would develop a quantum computer with AI ability in helping traders to trade shares automatically. Layman like us PER, Gearing and DY and growth rate are good enough to serve our purpose in trading shares now. lolz


Posted by probability > Dec 5, 2019 7:16 PM | Report Abuse

however, having such knowledge is definitely an advantage provided one knows when to use and not...

but that skills requires another 1000 page book to read - or just a good 'intuition'

May consider to buy Dlady when the price drop back to RM 40.

FF are liquidating their long term investment in blue chips. Nestle will not spare from this downturn. Good buy at RM 85.

EPF proxies still have 43 million shares to manipulate the prices of a Takaful at their own advantage. Hope they would fully dispose it off in next year.

Singapore banks are merely traded at PER between 9.7x to 11x only. Wait PBBank to drop below RM 15 which is trading at PER on par with its peers in Singapore.

It is hard to understand Bursa investors. There are many great and gruesome companies traded at PER below 30x in DJ like Coca Cola, Pepsi, J&J... Why Nestle is able to fetch sky-high PER 50x?

wow! Dlady dropped 10% in half a day. Investors are suddenly running like no tomorrow. What about another 2 great and gruesome companies, Nestle & QL?

Ricky yeo article “ First, Kill Your Ideas“

It is hard to say in share market. The more time we spent on a subject, our expectations is certainly much higher....there is a time where we are unable to distance ourselves even though the outcome is opposite with our expectations.

Probability. Don't under estimate Icon. Old bird learned from Science to Art. The real experience help in most situations to deal with uncertainty and really difficult to explain or reasoning.

Investment = Art + Science . Don't even know who is right or who is wrong.

As said before price of CPO is largely dependent on soy oil price. If soy bean production low enough then the price of CPO may go higher. US soy bean production is projected 20% lower in year 2019 comparing with 2018.

Ok. I reduce my estimation to 52 million ton for year 2019. Here’s the production announcement for 9 months.

https://gapki.id/news/15754/ekspor-sawit-ke-india-kembali-normal

Indonesia CPO production is rather stunning. Annual production increase from 19.4 million ton in 2009 to 47.4 million ton for year 2018. Malaysia production remains about 20 million ton per annual for last. 10 years.

Here to search for one by one in the news.

https://gapki.id/press-release

The estimate increasing consumption from B20 to B30 is about 2.5 to 3.0 million ton per annual.

https://www.ttnews.com/articles/indonesian-road-test-finds-palm-oil-biofuel-safe-cars

Enning22. You can compile the monthly production figures issued by Indonesia authority GAPKI then you would know the actual volume rather than the data from news. This year the latest production volume shows 39.5 millions ton for 9 monthis until Sep 19. My estimation of 54 million tons for the whole year.

Posted by enning22 > Nov 29, 2019 9:32 PM | Report Abuse

@up_down , please get your data accurate, indonesia production forecast to be 45million ton,not 54 million as you mentioned, B30 would take up according to estimate would be 8 to 9 million tonnes, currently program of B20 consumed 5-6 million tonnes.

Indonesia implemented B30 is only part of the factor boosting CPO price higher. In fact, CPO price moves in tandem with soy oil price.

Indonesia is an energy imported country. To increase Biodiesel from B30 to B40 would reduce 2.5 million ton of CPO in a year. Indonesia is expected to produce more than 54 million ton CPO this year. The annual savings from imported fossil oil costs more than USD 1 billion. Indonesia is actually making a right move to stabilized CPO price.

Redtone lost momentum as no big contract is awarded until now. Some more share price shot up 200% since the past 12 months. It's quite reasonable to have such profit taking activities.