Posted by stockraider > Mar 1, 2016 10:51 AM | Report Abuse
Actually using margin and not using margin the investment risk is the same.....don be mislead for avoiding margin all together. Especially in very low interest rate environment.
USING MARGIN AND NOT USING MARGIN IN INVESTMENT IS THE SAME? YOU MUST BE KIDDING!
HAVE YOU CONSIDERED MARGIN CALL RISK, BANKRUPTCY RISK, EXAGGERATED LOSS RISK, SLEEPLESS NIGHTS RISK, STRESS RISK ETC?
Fyi....a margin investor actually enjoy lower cost compare to cash equity investor loh.! For example margin cost is 5% pa, whereas epf cost is 6.4% pa loh...!!
THE COST THE SAME? HAVE YOU CONSIDERED THE SETUP COST, COST OF MARGIN CALL, ETC?
U just need to manage the margin better loh....!! They are 3 points raider mentioned earlier, that u need to take note for using margin.
PLEASE RAISE YOUR "3 POINTS" HERE AND WE CAN DELIBERATE HERE.
What would be the result of lack of capital, lack of skill, and combine with the use of margin finance? RAIDER AGREE LACKED OF SKILL CAN BE TRAINED...BUT USING MARGIN FINANCING IS ALSO PART OF THE OVERALL INVESTMENT SKILL....SHOULD RAIDER SAY TRAINING INVESTOR TO MANAGE THEIR MARGIN IS ALSO PART OF THE INVESTMENT SKILL,,,PERHAPS RAIDER SAY IT IN A DIFFERENT WAY...IT CAN BE CONSIDER ADVANCE PART OF INVESTMENT LOH....!!
Still want to encourage youngsters to invest with margin finance? Yes, skill can be taught, but that guarantee the success in investing, especially in the short run? AS RAIDER SAY EARLIER...INVESTMENT IS NOT SHORT TERM....IT IS A LONG TERM PLAY....!! REMEMBER THIS ....SHARE PRICE IS A VOTING MACHINE IN THE SHORT TERM....THAT MEANS U UNABLE TO PREDICT ITS MOVEMENT IN SHORT TERM, BUT IN THE LONG TERM IT IS A WEIGHING MACHINE, THAT MEAN ITS VALUE CAN BE DETERMINE LOH...!!
If one uses margin finance, he has to be right, not only in the long run, but also in the short term. Otherwise any sharp fall in the market incurs short selling and capital can be wiped out easily. So a skilful investor guaranteed of short-term success in investing with margin finance? WHETHER PEOPLE USE MARGIN OR OWN MONIES TO INVEST...THEY NEED TO BE RIGHT IN THE LONG RUN...IF THEY ARE WRONG WEALTH WILL BE DESTROYED LOH....!!
DON'T FORGET, EVEN IF U INVEST USING YOUR OWN MONIES....U R EXPOSE TOO...SAME AS MARGIN LOH....!! U NEED TO MAKE HIGHER THAN UR OPPORTUNITY COST....!!
IN FACT SOMETIME IT IS BETTER TO USE MARGIN THAN UR OWN MONIES LOH...!! FOR EXAMPLE IF U LEAVE MONIES IN THE EPF...UR RATE RETURN IS 6.4% PA BUT IF U CAN BORROW USING MARGIN AT 5.4% PA, THEN IT IS BETTER FOR U TO BORROW LOH....!!
HAVING SAY THE ABOVE, AN INVESTOR NEED TO ON GUARD MORE ON MARGIN COMPARE WITH OWN MONIES.
1. WHEN SHORT TERM MOVEMENT MAY TRIGGER MARGIN CALL
2. THE BANK MAY CHANGE THE CAPPING VALUE OF YOUR SHARE, AGAIN THIS MAY REDUCE UR SECURITY..RESULTING THE RISK OF MARGIN CALL AND FORCE SELL.
3. THE BANK MAY COMPLETE DISALLOW THE VALUE OF YOUR SHARE PLEDGE, AGAIN THIS MAY TRIGGER A MARGIN CALL,
IN THE CASE OF A MARGIN INVESTOR...HE NEED TO BEAR IN MIND OF RISK ITEM 1 TO 3 COMPARE TO SHARE INVESTOR. OTHER THAN ITEM 1 TO 3....THE RISK OF CASH INVESTOR AND MARGIN INVESTOR ARE EXACTLY THE SAME.
SO IN ORDER TO USE MARGIN FINANCING U NEED TO MANAGE YOUR MARGIN RISK LOH....RAIDER WILL ELABORATE THIS LATER...!!
Posted by stockraider > Mar 1, 2016 02:53 PM | Report Abuse What would be the result of lack of capital, lack of skill, and combine with the use of margin finance? RAIDER AGREE LACKED OF SKILL CAN BE TRAINED...BUT USING MARGIN FINANCING IS ALSO PART OF THE OVERALL INVESTMENT SKILL....SHOULD RAIDER SAY TRAINING INVESTOR TO MANAGE THEIR MARGIN IS ALSO PART OF THE INVESTMENT SKILL,,,PERHAPS RAIDER SAY IT IN A DIFFERENT WAY...IT CAN BE CONSIDER ADVANCE PART OF INVESTMENT LOH....!! Me: Most young people can’t even handle the elementary part of the investment skill, so you want to training them the “advance” part, using margin financing? Would you want to train an aspiring pilot to fly now when he can’t even understand the instrumentations in the plane?
Still want to encourage youngsters to invest with margin finance? Yes, skill can be taught, but that guarantee the success in investing, especially in the short run? AS RAIDER SAY EARLIER...INVESTMENT IS NOT SHORT TERM....IT IS A LONG TERM PLAY....!! REMEMBER THIS ....SHARE PRICE IS A VOTING MACHINE IN THE SHORT TERM....THAT MEANS U UNABLE TO PREDICT ITS MOVEMENT IN SHORT TERM, BUT IN THE LONG TERM IT IS A WEIGHING MACHINE, THAT MEAN ITS VALUE CAN BE DETERMINE LOH...!!
Me: How can investing with margin finance to belong term when the change in share price can be more than 30% in less than two months as some of the stocks described in this thread, or even up to 50% in a year? Isn’t there high risk of margin call? Even there is no margin call, won’t youngsters subject to the high risk of losing 60% in a year like what have been described in this article?
If one uses margin finance, he has to be right, not only in the long run, but also in the short term. Otherwise any sharp fall in the market incurs short selling and capital can be wiped out easily. So a skilful investor guaranteed of short-term success in investing with margin finance? WHETHER PEOPLE USE MARGIN OR OWN MONIES TO INVEST...THEY NEED TO BE RIGHT IN THE LONG RUN...IF THEY ARE WRONG WEALTH WILL BE DESTROYED LOH....!!
Me: No, margin users not only have to be right in the short-term but have to right in the short-term too as described in this article. Genetic lost 48% of its share price within 3 months. 50% margin users would have lost everything.
DON'T FORGET, EVEN IF U INVEST USING YOUR OWN MONIES....U R EXPOSE TOO...SAME AS MARGIN LOH....!! U NEED TO MAKE HIGHER THAN UR OPPORTUNITY COST....!!
Me: I can withstand even short term losses, and I often do, but not necessary must be higher than opportunity cost. You are exposed to short-term margin call risks, besides higher return from your opportunity cost. Anyway, opportunity cost should not be the prime concern of a margin user. The high risk of margin calls and forced selling due to market volatility, which is very common, is the concern.
IN FACT SOMETIME IT IS BETTER TO USE MARGIN THAN UR OWN MONIES LOH...!! FOR EXAMPLE IF U LEAVE MONIES IN THE EPF...UR RATE RETURN IS 6.4% PA BUT IF U CAN BORROW USING MARGIN AT 5.4% PA, THEN IT IS BETTER FOR U TO BORROW LOH....!!
Me: Why do you compare with the return of EPF and use it as an opportunity cost? Why not from your FD, or Along? Do you also encourage youngsters to take up their safe EPF and reasonable return fixed income to invest in risky assets, not guaranteed of higher return?
HAVING SAY THE ABOVE, AN INVESTOR NEED TO ON GUARD MORE ON MARGIN COMPARE WITH OWN MONIES.
1. WHEN SHORT TERM MOVEMENT MAY TRIGGER MARGIN CALL
2. THE BANK MAY CHANGE THE CAPPING VALUE OF YOUR SHARE, AGAIN THIS MAY REDUCE UR SECURITY..RESULTING THE RISK OF MARGIN CALL AND FORCE SELL.
3. THE BANK MAY COMPLETE DISALLOW THE VALUE OF YOUR SHARE PLEDGE, AGAIN THIS MAY TRIGGER A MARGIN CALL,
IN THE CASE OF A MARGIN INVESTOR...HE NEED TO BEAR IN MIND OF RISK ITEM 1 TO 3 COMPARE TO SHARE INVESTOR. OTHER THAN ITEM 1 TO 3....THE RISK OF CASH INVESTOR AND MARGIN INVESTOR ARE EXACTLY THE SAME.
SO IN ORDER TO USE MARGIN FINANCING U NEED TO MANAGE YOUR MARGIN RISK LOH....RAIDER WILL ELABORATE THIS LATER...!!
Me: So you do see the high risk of margin finance from your above statement. Aren’t they any concern to youngsters? Why still encourage and want to train youngsters to use it in the first place? Let us hear how you manage them.
U seem to suggesting people to use margin, but keep talking about risk and dangerous of using margin, and how to prevent from kena them.
Investor? How many of us here invest a company and hold for 10 years? Even uncle KYY with super heavy bullet only holds for like 1 year and keep buy sell buy sell buy sell.. If I had recently used margin to follow his recommendations which meet all his golden rules (very good companies), I would have started paying a loss repayment plan offered by investment bank.
Correct me on this: I think need to withdraw money from epf and put somewhere else with IB to invest instock market?
Youngster do not how to manage finance correctly Even some old generation has problem with finance No one is perfect to finance Finance itself is like a mistake No one can forever make no mistakes
Small finance is small mistake Big finance is big mistake When you play with finance You play with mistake The more mistake you did the less mistake you will do later If your first mistake is big enough to kill you, do you have second chance to make or avoid the mistake?
If you make small mistake everytime, you learn to manage mistake more carefully, make it small to save yourself from trouble, think about it you only live once
Everyone hope to make it small Too bad if you make it small in the stock market You won't go far, the intermediate fee to the financial system alone is enough to make any of your investment unprofitable, all this financial system want you to make it big so you can faster go to hell and they have one less headcount to feed.
To make you go to hell faster They invent credit card, margin loan any leverage to help new generation to make bigger mistake. New generation will need to learn to manage this leverage since they was bornt.
It is not conspiracy. It is just tycoon gone through those stresful time, they dun advise normal ppl use margin. Margin can kill u and familly just one day if not managed properly. But it is also reason why they strikr big.
I think there is an argument that certain things are better leveraged and some not. I would say things like car and house loans are leverages on things we otherwise cannot buy. And in a low interest rates and benign investment period, with a steady and secure job income, it makes the most sense to use the least cash and leverage to the max - get the biggest margin of financing from your bank
While in investment itself, certain leveraged instruments - eg long maturity company warrants - are OK for certain counters. Margin in a brokerage account - no, thank you very much. Market goes up slowly and crashes fast.
RAIDER HAS NOTHING TO AGAINST KC HERE....BUT RAIDER THINK....KC THINKING IS FLAWS HERE...ON THE PREMISE...THE FAILURE OF THE ASPIRING MARGIN TYCOON...IS NOT DUE TO HIS MARGIN....BUT THE ISSUE OF LACK SKILL....TO MAKE THE GRADE LOH..!! JUST LIKE AN OLYMPIC ATHELETE U NEED TO MASTER THE NECESSARY THE INVESTMENT ROBES OF TRADE...B4 U CAN REALLY DO WELL LOH....!!
Me: Let us see which argument on margin finance is flawed, me or yours. You have actually contradicting your own argument with these statements below.
YES RAIDER ASK HOW MANY PEOPLE CAN MASTER A SKILL....B4 HE CAN COMPETE IN OLYMPIC LEH ? YES RAIDER SAYS W BUFFET....IS THE ALL TIME GOLD MEDALIST IN THE INVESTMENT WORLD LOH...!!
Me: How many Buffetts in this world? How many Olympic gold medalists are there? How many gold medals Malaysia, with a population of more than 30m, has achieved? How many investors in Malaysia have achieved the status of “investment tycoons” using margin finance? How many “Star Investors” are there?
RAIDER SAY YES....W.BUFFET...STARTED INVESTING WHEN HE IS 7 YRS OLD....IN FACT HE HAS GONE THRU ALL THE ROBES OF INVESTMENT LOH.....!! HE HAS USED MARGIN B4 TOO....WHY HE DISCOURAGE ? BCOS WARREN ADVISE IS FOR THE AVERAGE INVESTOR LOH....!! HE DO NOT MEAN FOR STAR INVESTOR.....WITH ASPIRING OLYMPIC MEDAL IN MIND....AND MASTER INVESTMENT....TO BE A TYCOON LOH...!!
Me: When did Buffett say “Star investor” should use margin finance? Which statement he made which infer that?
RAIDER SAY ALL THE ABOVE EVENT....KC MENTIONED MARKET CRASH....BUT IN ALL OCASSION IN THE HISTORY OF INVESTMENT....IT ALWAYS COMEBACK AND GO EVEN HIGHER AFTER THE SHAKE UP LOH....!!
Me: Agree with you above. But how many of those who got killed using margin finance such as at the time of 1998 manage to come back?
AGAIN THIS RAIDER DISAGREE LOH....IT ADD VALUE....WHEN YOUR EXPECTED PAYBACK IS HIGH AND THE DOWNSIDE IS LOW LOH....!! Me: Agree with your statement. But “expected payback” is just an expectation, especially we don’t know when that expectation will be realized, and if there is a big downside when margin finance users are already killed before that expectation is realized.
IT IS COUNTER INTUTIVE LOH....IF U WANT TO AVERAGE JOE....LISTEN TO THE ADVISE OF THE GREAT RELIGION....BUT IF U ASPIRING TO GO FOR IT....U SHOULD REALLY GOLD FOR THE MEDAL....THEN ....LEVERAGE IS AN IMPORTANT TOOL LOH...!!
Me: Investing is not always come with upside. The downside happens as frequent as the upside. Yes, go for the Olympic Gold Medal, everyone of you!
RAIDER SAYS IF U REALLY WANTS TO BE A TYCOONS THAN U BETTER START YOUNG...NOT ALL CAN MAKE IT...U HAVE TO GO THRU HARD AND DIFFICULT PART...LIKE AN OLYMPIC ATHELETE..U NEED MASTER MANY MANY SKILLS B4 SUCCESSFUL LOH....!!
Me: “Not all can make it”. So what is the percentage who make it? How sure you are that any youngster who doesn’t even have the basic investment skill is the only few lucky ones?
There are no ending in arguing margin trading, both are right, some are aggressive type n some are conservative type. Only that newbies need to improve the financial knowledge & skill before engage to margin trading.
"When leverage works, it magnifies your gains. Your spouse thinks you're clever, and your neighbors get envious," explained Buffett in his 2010 shareholder letter. "But leverage is addictive. Once having profited from its wonders, very few people retreat to more conservative practices. And as we all learned in third grade — and some relearned in 2008 — any series of positive numbers, however impressive the numbers may be, evaporates when multiplied by a single zero. History tells us that leverage all too often produces zeroes, even when it is employed by very smart people."
newbie,own experience,learnt one point lesson. margin financing,a tool only.gaining or losing depend on whom that use it. want to use,GOT TO HAVE A VERY HIGH DISCIPLINE. only use 20% to 30% of margin limit only.use to its limit,wait to die la .also have to know own finance power.how long own can TAHAN paying margin interest. when have to cut loss,just do it.if not,die la.
Raider earlier do support, the use of margin for investors....bcos raider had use margin quite successfully for many years loh.....!!
But looking....how Kyy and mammy promoted.....their dynamic investment....and how poorly their selection of stocks....raider fear for safety, for those, who use margin follow and....mammy sailang loh...!!
Thus raider, decided....not to support the use of margin anymore loh..!!!
Even raider's own margin.....right now raider no longer using anymore..bcos after close to 10 yrs of mkt run up....time now is de-gear and cutdown borrowing loh....!!
Leveraging is everywhere, it is even more when comes to property investment. So should we ditch mortgage loan? We are living in a capital market, understand the tools first before you use is the key afterall. In fact the product of share margin financing are getting less riskier than last time in terms of limit given and pledged share limitation. Of course, you will only know if you try to understand more.
osted by NOBY > Mar 2, 2016 04:02 PM | Report Abuse
Warren Buffett on leverage
"When leverage works, it magnifies your gains. Your spouse thinks you're clever, and your neighbors get envious," explained Buffett in his 2010 shareholder letter. "But leverage is addictive. Once having profited from its wonders, very few people retreat to more conservative practices. And as we all learned in third grade — and some relearned in 2008 — any series of positive numbers, however impressive the numbers may be, evaporates when multiplied by a single zero. History tells us that leverage all too often produces zeroes, even when it is employed by very smart people."
REMEMBER THE ABOVE W.BUFFET ADVICE LOH.....!! ONE WRONG MOVE U ARE DEAD .....IF GEARING IS TOO HIGH MAH..!!
AS FOR PROPERTY MARGIN FINANCING....RAIDER ALSO ADVICE U CUTDOWN THE LOAN TOO.....JUST ACCELERATE YOUR LOAN REPAYMENT....WHENEVER U HAVE EXCESS MONIES LOH.....!!
If you only average up, never average down where got margin call?
If you got good cut loss strategy, where got margin call ?
If you got huge profits and keep buying with unrealised gains, some times, market can suddenly drop causing a margin call. In such cases, margin calls are hardly the end of the world.....it is just an excuse to sell some shares and realise some profits.
Negative news sells, Insurance agents and financial advisers will tell you to save money ( so you can have money to buy their products) Investment books will tell you to be prudent and conservative...and save money.
Turn on the radio, read the papers, you are surrounded by negative news and people asking you to save money.
If you want to be super investor, you have to beat your own path.......that risk is not to be avoided at all cost. Afetr all, no risk means no gain.
The stock market rewards you for taking on risk and later proven correct. ....that is what it is all about.
look at self proclaimed value investors...Calvin, this raider, KC........risk freaks them out.
but stock market is there to reward investors who assume risk and later proven correct...That is what stock market is all about.
KC.....
if KC is genuine value investor, he will recommend Genting ( Genting is fantastic under valued stock ) instead of recommending small little manufacturing company with a few million revenue per quarter. That is what irritates me.....KC, the self proclaimed value investor is but actually small cap speculator....hang pig head to sell dog meat.
If it is a good company at least u can push the company to squeeze a little more profit & cashflow loh.....!! This will help u tie over....when u r stucked...with margin loh..!!
But if u r holding....a lemon stock like jaks with big losses....how much u can squeeze water from hard rock leh ???
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
PlsGiveBonus
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Posted by PlsGiveBonus > 2016-03-01 11:57 | Report Abuse
Can you afford to loss your opportunity to secure any more reward able financial loan for a high risky margin loan?