I am neither TA nor FA. I like FA but incapable to do so. So I am a simple street man using common sense.

Nice to know you.

Robert Love: welcome back to the topic. I like your point again. Well done. My general understanding on printing industry is that it is a cut-throat biz. Worst still for Tien Wah as regulatory control on printing for tobacco goes tougher each year. If I am not mistaken, Australia banned or proposed to ban printing on tobacco carton. If M’sia bans printing on carton of tobacco, the impact to Tien Wah would be significant. Must well we avoid Tien Wah for the time being?

Hi Eric Wong: our definition on “Have to be more discipline and wait patiently” is totally different. In my definition of discipline, most of your selections in your portfolio are not related to discipline. SORRY, I am too busy body, please just ignore if you dislike my comment.

ipomember : I understood from insiders also that profit margin of nitrile gloves has been lately squeezed to single digit or close to single digit(again maybe Harta is an exceptional case for its super efficiency). Kimberley Clark(world leader on nitrile exam gloves) has just spun off their glove biz to a smaller company which will definitely go very aggressively to press down the margin of OEM in M’sia in order to increase its own margin.

ipomember : I understood from insiders that many of gloves manufacturers in Malaysia(maybe except Harta) cannot fill up their installed capacity.

ipomember : Generally, the industry players are guiding 8-12% growth in global glove consumption p.a. depending on whether there is any disease outbreak during the year.

http://www.google.com.my/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CEAQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.supermax.com.my%2Fhtml%2Ffiledownload.aspx%3Ffile%3DALLIANCE%2520-RUBBER%2520GLOVE%2520-%2520120208%2520-%2520INITIATION.PDF&ei=kYWRUr50z-utB4aqgcgO&usg=AFQjCNHX89nWq9fRdlM2x7g7xnoecWOemg&sig2=3znUvbKuh1bLWuYutqqDLQ

[PDF]Rubber Glove Sector - Supermax Corporation Berhadwww.supermax.com.my/.../filedownload.aspx?...RUBBER%20GLOVE%...‎Cached
SimilarFeb 8, 2012 - Based on our estimates, the global glove industry's utilisation rate would ... growth due to its contract-manufacturing expansion and improved ...

Ipomember : your question is expected.
http://www.rubbernews.com/article/20130906/NEWS/130909967/speaker-overcapacity-looms-as-glove-industry-thrives

Hi Eric Wong : since we have chance to meet here, showing that we have some fate chemistry. My 100% sincere advice to you is to take a big step backward, think 3 times or must well exist the current hot market. In my view you are unlucky to start your journey with the risky path, more so at the risky time. I cannot elaborate more else there will be many canons shooting me. Hopefully you can get my altruistic message. Take a big step backward, Think 3x. Good luck.

Ipomember : "the demand for glove are growing at CAGR of 20% for N years, and it will be going at this rate for the coming 2 to 3 years as claimed by the report" is incorrect. Do not trust that report on this. The rests you are spot on.

有阿英哥的槟城更加没得顶. 我爱阿英哥.

以上几遍文章, 构成我投资价值观.

16-Jun-08, 谁说打工仔与百万无缘？ KLCI=1238 不少五星级股票，周息率高达8%，如果长期持有，股票每年增值5%，就可以取得13%的回酬，超过12%的目标。 只买五星级股票，着重股息。

29-Sep-08, 打工仔的生天 KLCI=1028, 要致富，需投资。惟一要做的，是做很多的功课，知道什么银行是最好的， 在低价时买进，紧握不放。 只要有关公司的盈利继续上升， 就不卖。

13-Oct-08, 第13个月薪金 KLCI=945, GOOD:退休时，你的投资收入，最低限度，应该等于你最后一个月的薪金;退休时，你拥有13家五星级公司的股票,每只每年发给你1万令吉的股息.Capital=1.3mil@10%yield

打工仔的悲哀:“人生如甘蔗，被榨了30年，蔗汁榨干了，人老力衰，有如蔗渣，没有被利用的价值了，只好向职场说“拜拜”。 " This was the golden statement pushing me into Bursa and no return.
我的最爱: 12-Nov-07 渡晚年 有尊严, 冷眼,分享集

Ｈａｒｔａ　ｉｓ　ｔｈｅ　ｖｅｒｙ　ｒｉｇｈｔ　ｃｈｏｉｃｅ．Ｗａｉｔ　ｆｏｒ　　ｉｐｏｍｅｍｂｅｒ　ｔｏ　ｔｅｌｌ　ｈｉｓ　ｓｔｏｒｙ　ｗｉｔｈ　Ｈａｒｔａ．

Not to show off here but rather to encourage you to read in detail. Most of the articles by Len Yan（冷眼）, I read for not less than 3 times. Few articles I read even more than 20 times till I can memorize them.

@Tankw ：　对你一直以来所做出的大量文章贡献：我只能说“敬佩，感恩”。我欠你。

Ipomember : I started to read your posts after your sensible comments on gloves industry. Contrary to your “new” comment, your posts showed that you are experience and wise. You are very likely a winner in long term. Good luck, pal. Let us interact more frequently. OK ?

My Simple Recipe:

Let us put those who have high self discipline aside. Most of the investors in Bursa do not have high self discipline, certainly I am one of them. My approaches in Bursa are more or less as the below:

i) Reshuffle my portfolio to get DIVIDEND YIELD higher than FD rate. This is a very important preparation to weather through the big BEAR. Some sifu said: before making $, prepare to loss $ first.

ii) BUY LESS in hot market even though I miss opportunity to earn more as compared to others(may be ironically I learn more, who knows?). Capitalize the Bull to earn maximum profit is a “Lip Service” term. I remind myself everyday not to fall into this trap. Every coin has two faces. When you expect maximum profit from Bull, in other way you expose your maximum capital to Bear. I like to earn from Bear more than Bull.

iii) I DO NOT SELL(or very seldom) as I do not know when to sell. Furthermore I will feel pain to sell biz which gives me higher dividend yield than FD. Ha! Ha! I think this one kills me.

iv) I work hard to get NEW FUND to buy maximum in Bear market. This is the key to win.

v) Most of the time, I just SIT and WAIT. I do not trade a lot. Not more than 15 times on 10 counters in this year.

All winning seniors: What are your opinions?

在牛市面前，我一直都是谦卑，战战兢兢，如履薄冰。抱着随时把手头上的纸上賺幅送给大熊，甚至须割肉餵熊，以期待下轮牛市翻本加赚利。

In fact I always shared my opinions on both Bull and Bear markets. The posts in early morning has touched on this a bit. My asessment on Zhulian disclosed my approach in Bull market. Again I need to reiterate that 我本身就是20年的失敗者. 败军之将, 何足言勇.

我本身就是20年的失敗者. 败军之将, 何足言勇.

Hi KC Chong : many see you(actually you are) as an experience long term value investor. May you share you view on reasonable long term return from Bursa for ordinary investors (those not as skillful as you but not greedy too).
Thank you.

WB said something like this : " value investing is an exercise to have fun of catching a rare Quick Moving Elephant.”

Sorry, I opine that you have out topic. We are now discussing printing biz surrounding Tien Wah, Amvig and Amcor. You should not compare printing to tobacco in this context. It is very weird when we are talking about price and nutrient of an apples, out of sudden you said orange is more delicious.

Divesting and outsourcing the less profitable segment is a different topic here.

找到:冷眼(冯时能)， 分享集19-May-2008　: 李光耀的投资智慧: 新加坡政府投资机构由1981年成立至2005年的25年中，每年的平均回酬为9.5%。

美国过去200年的股市回酬，约为10%．

股神巴菲特以取得15%的复利回酬为目标，已是很高的标准。

脚踏实地的投资者，如果能取得比经济成长更高的回酬，已算是很特出的表现，

下定决心，不怕困难，排除万难，去追求胜利。

对我来说，1/3的薪水储蓄不难做到，投资保本也不难做到. 投资股票每年16%的复利增长（10%资本+6%股息）就很难做到。

或许现在很多人说他们这兩年的回酬率都是20%或以上。他们並沒骗你，只是没告诉你常期回酬率吧了。我看过报導说股神的长期回酬也只是19%，我们就现实点接受自己是不可能只差股神3%的事实吧。几年前冷眼前輩曾说新加坡Tamasek的精英也达不到16%,我们就认了吧。

我倒是觉得8-13%是比较实際。不过现实中只怕只有很少数的打工族可以做到。原因在於股市=赌场，专挑战人性的弱点。若你能战胜本身的弱点，你就有很大机会成功。雖然我没有数据，不过我敢猜不到10%的打工＋投资族可以达标。我本身就是20年的失敗者，除非在最后的十年我可赶超平均数。

我一直以来都梦想成为那10%的成功者。其实我是很努力及充满信心终有一天达标。同志们，让我们一起努力吧。下定决心，不怕困难，排除万难，去追求胜利。

This is good, at least now I understand more on FCF, CFFO. However my current level is still insufficient to appreciate cash flow. I am still within the level of profit and revenue. Catching up slowly.
Thks for your detailed explaination.

10sens is very likely. 23.2+10=33.2sens of eps, DPO @ 22.2%(I read from somewhere:有意維持22.2%派息率) , expected div =7.33sens.

DLuckyGuy : As you can admit that you are not genius but lucky, you are qualified to join Bursa, you have bright chance to win in long term.

You will very likely make good profit if you invested in 2009-2011 and hold till today, but it does not mean blindly with any investment. Example I have invested big money in Notion in 2010, till today I made a big lost among my portfollio, not to mention profit.

You need to select carefully and with luck.

Welcome to Bursa. Good luck.

Aiyoh, I am still lending big money to Mr Toh of Notion. I were abducted. I cannot help myself. In this round of Bull, the most screw up and stupid one is Notion which is still in red and worst still it is more red the longer I am with it. All other counters deliver significant paper gain.

L.C. Chong said it is not bad.

Do not ask me as I have a stubborn head till I reach Yellow River one day. Let me sink together with Mr Toh, you jump, I jump. Today I am Jack.

As a follower of Len Yan, if it is a rubbish, I would not hold. Unless I am a failed follower. Who knows?

Robert Love has presented a very good case. I were once invested in TienWah(2009 -2011, 31000 shares). Yes, I received good dividend but it was very boring indeed due to more or less the same cases/points presented by Robert Love. Thus at last I decided to let go TienWah in 2011.

I liked its Annual Report,CEO(Tengku) and management.

Thanks for tracking the development of Mahsing. Well done.

Light question : quite hard for me to link figure of on-line games to equity market. Would you mind to tell.

很多人买股票，如同买一件衣服，一过时就扔。
Sorry, not me. Some 衣服 I even wear for 20 years if it is still in one piece.

At least 80% of my current portfolio has minimum 3 years holding period. On the flipside, stupid counter is held for long term too such as Notion. That is why I am not WB but somebody sits and brags here. But how do I know that Notion is stupid and Zhulian is smart? I wish I do know.

Notion : Thailand-flood, Klang-fire, HDD-down cycle. 天意弄人,非战之罪.

Modify the original statement to the below for self benefit:
美女可不是好追的，何况追的是数一数二的大美女，经验是，等到美女落难，而且是大难，方才出手。

Most of the people like PBB大美女. In the current hot market or even during the normal market she will not heed you if you come with motorcycle , Kancil or Proton. If you are patient enough to wait for the Big BEAR, 大美女矜持will drop to affordable level. Then you can bring her home as many as you want with low cost.

Can you wait for that moment? Precisely, not many can. As long as you are in, you are in. There is no such thing I am in but do not touch the girls (stocks). It is almost impossible to wait till Big Bear to touch the girls. Normally while you cannot afford the elegant girl, you will buy low quality girls for excitement............

What do I practice?
i) Buy at any self deemed appropriate time even in hot market to cure addiction on shares. (Grow along with experience, the bought counters are now relatively better in quality )
ii) Work hard to get in new fund.
iii) Continue buying during Big Bear.
iv) Sit and Wait for dividend.(Treat the investment as FD).
v) Continue work hard to get in more new fund and buy more.
vi) Sit and wait till Cow(Bull) comes home and brag and brag here in the morning of Saturday.

Cheers ! and Good Luck.

You should opt for Wa base on today closing price and assume Wa is listed the next day.

Subscription price 1.50, exercise price 7.96, mother closed at RM10.02. Therefore the minimum open price of Wa is theoretically 10.02-7.96=2.06. You earn additional 0.56(2.06-1.50) upon the listing of Wa. Divided 0.56 by 4=0.14. Which means the actual benefit from every Genting is 0.50+0.14=0.64. This is much better than the 0.50 cash dividend.

Base on today’s close at 10.02, I GUESS the WA is very reasonably open with premium at 2.30, indirectly increases the 50 sen dividend to 80 sens.(2.30-1.5=0.8; 0.8/4=0.2; 0.2+0.5=0.8).

Good luck.

Please do not condemn the Wa or LKT. You are given option to take dividend in cash, if you dislike the Wa.

As I mentioned before, if not the dividend-Wa proposal, you will likely get 4 sens interim dividend only as past years. This year you are given additional 46sens, why complaint?

Hi gark : Thanks for your comments. I have NO intention to challenge your info, but I would appreciate very much if you could provide more detail to justify your comments on “the world leader in kernel crushing plant and high efficiency of MBL”.

“Leader” and “high efficiency” are two key elements of my preference as they equal to competitive=$.

I want to be a partner of you in MBL, please help me to convince myself.

Thank you very much.

BoilerMech
Hi : Lately, I have been assigned to assess high pressure bio-mass boiler. I gathered some insight translating into optimistic view on the industry. I were delighted to know that M’sia has a listed specialist on Bio-mass boiler, BoilerMech. Thanks to Mr Michael Tang. I will start the process of data collection on the company as preparation for the potential entry in the next Bear market. From the first glance on the annual report, I like the BOD. Just having one concern, the owner is Chia family(39.16%) but the soul people is Leong(14.6%). When there is a critical conflict between Leong and Chia, Leong has no option but leave, leaving the company without technical soul. This kind of story happened in many Chinaman companies.

What are your comments especially on financial analysis? Thank you.

As I am familiar with Zhulian, thus pls allow me to compare Zhulian to MBL. Annualized Rev of FY13 of Zhulian and MBL respectively: 452 mil and 56 mil. Directors remuneration of both are 5.2mil and 4.2 mil(FY12) which are 1.2% and 7.5% from their rev respectively.

Why should BOD of MBL draw so high % remuneration from the company?
I feel very weird if my company is small or medium in size but there are 8 big directors sitting in office drawing big salary, pushing overhead high while the earning of the biz is not that big.

When I attended interview in some small companies, the common phase heard was “we would like you to join us and grow the biz but we are small company, cannot afford for the expected high salary, can you please reduce the expected salary and let us grow the company together?” Why I do not see this in BOD of MBL ?

This factor hit me as I am very particular about the "people" when investing into a company.

Thank you for the prompt response.

Hi KC Chong:

I like this comment
“Posted by alenac > Apr 3, 2013 09:09 PM | Report Abuse Got your point but there are many suppliers of machines and plants in the market, no need to go to this company. CAPEx spending when the plantation got money if not they send them to 3rd parties mills.”

Browsing thru their website, I do not feel the machines built by MBL are kind of high-tech and sophisticated, meaning the entry barrier should be low.

Annual Report 2012 : aggregate remuneration of the Directors for FY12 was RM4.2mil. I assume it is similar in FY13. 1st half FY13 PBT=4.1 mils, annualized PBT at RM8.2mil. Remuneration of Directors is almost 50% of the PBT. Where is the productivity of the directors?

May you share your comments ?

Thank you very much.

Hi Michael Tang:
1st half eps=4.1sens, annualized eps of FY13 =8.2sens. Expected div = 40% DPOx8.2=3.3sens. At RM1.06, yield =3.1%. I do not agree with you that MBL is better than FD which is coincidently at 3.1%.

You said : “MBL is in the same business as boilermech in boiler” May I know where do you get this info? As I have an optimistic view on biz of manufacturing of biomass boiler, thus I am very keen to learn more about the venture of MBL into it.

Thank you very much.

Hi Michael: can we go to thread of MBL, I have few questions to ask. But I need to attend a meeting soon, will ask questions after work. Thank you very much in advance.

I believe we will have more same counters in the next Bear. But not now.

Thank you very much on Zhulian.

I am monitoring your MBL for sometimes already. Have not taken any action yet. Do you want to give some booster? Thank again.

Hi KC Chong :
I hope you can again generously share your thinking process on Zhulian.

You calculated in last year the Intrinsic Value of Zhulian at RM3.40 with assumption 8% growth rate and RM6.40 with 23% growth rate. You also said that you would not bet on high growth rate albeit it is possible.

Now it is at RM5.10, do you think Len Yan(冷眼) and you as value investors will still hold on it ? Or should we reap the fruit now?

In this case, I am mature enough to hold myself full responsibility upon whatever your comment is. In fact I have disclosed my position in the above post, just want to learn your thinking process for self improvement.

Thank you.

The successful recipe of direct sale(MLM) is no street- smart or creative, just follow the proven methods developed by the company and copy everything from the successful up lines.

In investment case, I wish I were not smart as what you described. I wish that I would have just copied everything from you, and then I would have made much more return than my own portfolio as at today. But I cannot help myself, as a technical guy; I am bound to have strong self opinion, which brings me success and failure too.

As MLM, one of the competent techniques in equity investment is finding one proven sifu who has high integrity, then just follow his recommendations and methods with certain degree of self-screening. As long as following and practicing consistently for long term, you will grow your wealth and clone yourself to become another sifu. Do you believe this ? I do.

My assessment on Zhulian (Do Not Buy and DO NOT SELL):

9MFY13, eps=23.32sens. Assume another 8sens from Q4FY13, total eps for FY13 is 31.32sens, PE is 16.3x @RM5.10(the highest since listing in 2007). Div @ 60% DPO=18.8sens=4.2% yield @RM5.10(is still >FD at 3.1%).

At RM5.1 @ PE 16x, the risk of price dropping is higher than the chance of increasing, in my opinion. Nevertheless I do not want to sell a biz with

i) yearly PAT at ~RM150mil(2013) with 26%-31% of net margin
ii) very likely to grow for 10-15% annually for the next few years
iii) 4.2% div yield (2013) and will increase by 10-15% going forward along with PAT
iv) at PE 16x(2013), 14.8x(2014),13.5x(2015), assume 10% growth rate.

At the worst scenario, Bear hits and drags the PE down from 16x to 12x, the price would be RM3.80. That would be OK to me although I will face RM1.3(5.1-3.8) in paper loss, as I still will receive 4.2% yield yearly (assume entry price at RM5.1). 2 yrs later in 2015, RM3.80 is equal to PE 10X with projected eps 38sens(10% growth/yr from 31sen in 2013 to 2015).

If the PE increases to 13.5x in 2015, my stuck entry price at RM5.1 will be fully recovered on top of the 4.2% div yield. It is equal to putting RM5100 in FD with annum rate 4.2% for 2 years.

So, why should I sell now?

Better opportunity elsewhere? I am a simple and not-smart investor who does not know which counter will be better than Zhulian with the same baseline as at today. Therefore I prepare to give back the paper gain so far in exchange for the bright potential future growth in biz and share price.

On optimistic side:

Why should Amway commands higher PE at 20x while PAT(9M: 80mil vs 107mil) and net margin(9M: 12.5% vs 31%) are both less attractive than Zhulian. The only reason which I can think of is that Amway is a Mat Saleh company where people generally having stereotype that the moon of Mat Saleh is rounder than local’s.

Hey men, if Zhulian commands the same PE at 20x as Amway, Zhulian will be traded at RM6.3. He! He! Honestly, I am a conservative guy who does not expect it to reach RM6.30.

Good Luck to all of my dear partners in Zhulian. Cheers !

Is our KFima GLC? Semi-GLC? If there is no linkage to G, how can the mgt buy-off took place in early day? And how to get the contract on security doc printing?

I see CIMB and MBB r quite competitive althought there r pure GLC. So the statement to avoid GLC is not right.