单看标题就爽，超同意。

The one important lesson she learned was that the surest way to become rich is by accumulating stocks. She accumulated stocks in brand name companies she understood and then reinvested dividends for decades. She never sold.

She was the classical millionaire next door type of person.

The method was proven working well and reliable to me. If not pulling down by few counters with low dividend such as the hazy JTiasa , the unlucky Notion and the stingy Genting, I would have been very handsomely paid by my portfolio thru dividend. I aim to retire via dividend income, I think, yes! I can do it like Obama.

Christmas ‘s Dream.

Hi Nokenzo : I did not calculate FCFO of the last 5 years and the average. I just used the numbers provided by KC Chong as Table #2.

My numbers of FCF {base FCF * (1+growth%)} =73,284, 76,948 80,795 84,835 89,077

Yr1=69794*(1+5%)=73,284,
Yr2=73,284*(1+5%)=76,948,
Yr3=76,948*(1+5%)=80,795
Yr4=80,795*(1+5%)=84,835
Yr5=84,835*(1+5%)=89,077
Terminal FCF= CFn(1+g%)/(R%-g%)=89,077*(1+3%)/(10%-3%)= 1,399,778

FV FCF= FCFF1 / (1 + WACC)^1 + FCFF2 / (1 + WACC)^2 + ... + FCFFn / (1 + WACC)^n

Yr1=73,284/(1+10%)^1+Yr2=76,948/(1+10%)^2+yr3+yr4+yr5+Yr Terminal= 1,399,778/(1+10%)^5=1,118,013.

Good Luck.

I have 2 lemons which are Notion and JTiasa which constitute 10% of my portfolio. Both suck.

“In investing, sometimes too much positive feelings can be detrimental to your outcome”: bsngpg is one of them.

Great Posting. Merry Christmas & Happy New Year to all.

那是现代中国人的一般心态. 虽然不能否定我们的社会也有此现像，庆幸那还是属于少数。不过,此文章还是有我们借镜之处。

KC: thks.

Hi Houseofordos: thank you for the kind explanation.

I got FCF/share at RM2.40 too.
I knew how and where to get the raw data from AR. Mission was accomplished. Thanks. Will move to another counter to sharpen my understanding.

Hi Houseofordos : Would you kindly help me to understand
1)what are :Investment properties $0 and Interest in associates $0

2) Where to get these 2 items in Annual Report if both are applicable ?

3) Should both be added or subtracted when applicable ?

4)Do you have any example?

Thank you very much.

Hi kokenzo : I were a chemistry student, very dumb too. I spent many days in performing reverse engineering on the numbers by KC Chong to understand DCFA. I were shy to simply ask question, thus I spent lot of hours in reading at Investopedia.com and annual reports to map his numbers. Now I have little(not much and not validated) understanding on his numbers. Please feel free to ask whatever questions, let us learn together.

Happy learning.

You can get Table 2 by double clicking the Title "Blog: Stock Pick Challenge - [KFIMA] by kcchongnz"

Hi nokenzo : if use your number 70,058 as base FCF, I got terminal FCF =1,315,659. PV FCF= 1,122,242.


add cash =272200
less current debt=-18500
Total PV FCF =1,375,942
less minority inetrest=-354,993
Total PV FCFE =1,020,949
FCF/share=IV = 3.78
MOS @1.96 = 48%

Do you get the same numbers ?

03:45am, do you live outside Malaysia ?

Hi nokenzo : pls try to use 69,794 as your base FCF to check if you can get Terminal FCF 1,310,701.

I got 69,794 from Table 2.

Table 2: Cash flows of Kfima 
Year 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 Average

CFFO 52,589 131,052 137,909 114,196 56,521 98,453

Capex -49,513 -26,434 -24,022 -19,500 -23,826 -28,659

FCF 3,076 104,618 113,887 94,696 32,695 69,794

FCF/Revenue 0.60% 22.20% 26.40% 23.00% 8.90% 16%

FCF/IC 0.60% 25.80% 29.10% 27.70% 9.40% 19%

Hi nokenzo : the below are the numbers I got. Do you have the same numbers ?

Base/Yr 1/2/3/4/5/Terminal

FCF: 69,794/73,284/76,948/80,795/84,835/89,077/1,310,701

PVFCF:-----/66,622/63,593/60,703/57,943/55,310/813,842

PV of FCFF of core operations=1,118,013

Hi KC Chong : I finally completed reverse engineering on your DCFA on Prestariang. Except the base FCF where I got 30446 vs yours 30387, I can reproduce all of your numbers and also knew where to get the raw data and the meaning of each assumptions.
My average FCF of 2012-2011 = (38,527+22,365)/2=30446.
I will move on to another company.
Again, thank you very much.

Houseofordos : Thank you.

Hi KC Chong : Thks for the prompt reply, I will continue the analysis.

Hi KC Chong :
I am referring to your post dated Dec 1, 2013 03:18 PM, Blog: Prestariang - kcchongnz

Would you mind to tell me where to get
i)Non-operating cash $52,186 (BS :cannot find this # in AR12)
ii) Debts ($1,371) (BS :cannot find this # in AR12)

Thank you

Hi Housefordos : Would you mind to check if you have the same figure ? If I cannot regenerate your numbers, I am not fully understand the DCFA.

Base Yr 1;2;3;4;5;6;7;8;9;10;Terminal
FCF: 13,871; 14,565; 15,293; 16,057; 16,860; 17,703; 18,588; 19,518 ; 20,494; 21,518; 22,594; 332,460

PVFCF:-- 13,241;12,639;12,064; 11,516; 10,992; 10,493; 10,016; 9,561; 9,126; 8,711; 128,178;

PV of FCFF of core operations=236,535

Thank you

Hi House : Thanks for the analysis.
Your PV of FCFF of core operations $203,000. I got the figure $236,535. I cannot get $203,000.

Am I right to say debt is 4,327,475(short term) as 271,712(long term loan) should be excluded.

Thank you

Hi KC Chong : thank you very much for your prompt and generous response.

Hi KC Chong : I am referring to your post on Sep 8, 2013 07:16 PM on “Blog: Stock Pick Challenge - [KFIMA] by kcchongnz” .

Can you please tell me where did you get “minority interest 354.5m” ?
Thank you

Hi KC Chong:
it is now a beautiful morning in amazing land enjoying black coffee with no sugar. I have no special point to comment yet but will analyze your above comment after the good coffee.

There is one great news to share while expressing my thousand thanks to you is that I have preliminarily understood DCFA and known how to calculate DFCF(IV) of Presta and KFima by reverse engineering your works. There are still few points need further understanding. I will perform more reverse engineering on your works i.e. Homeritz to improve my understand on DCFA.

THOUSAND THANKS.

死啰！我也叫小散，对买卖纸游戏也己入迷上癮。己失去自控能力。叫我如何是好。
神啊,救救我吧 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1goEP9NW10

1) She is a beautiful girl. Botak J is a lucky guy.

2) Yearly expenses for retirement life=<4% of total saving. Umm, something new to me.

As I have few kids, I think I need more than 4%. In another word I need higher number in total saving. But I can see bright light at the end of tunnel. I am full of hope now.

3)Very simple life during retirement. I like it. Can my family adapt to it? My kids may dislike it. Sigh, need to increase the 4% or the total saving again.

4)The actual expense in travelling is not expensive. Umm, something new and seductive to me again. I wish I can pay a visit to New Zealand and sending white coffee there. Golf ? Sorry, I do not know at all.

5) Seeing the excessive lavish gomen, my total saving may depreciate to a very low value during my retirement age. To create a margin of safety, I need to increase the total saving again.
Sigh, add up the above, how to retire early ?

He ! He! “SLOW” comes with a price too. I were convinced by the value of Presta on 30 Nov 13 when it was traded at around 2.63. But I “bei shiok” the 2.63 but want it at 2.50 and below. I ended seeing it inches up to 2.90. Have to wait for the next boat lol. To me the real value will not diminish in a short time, chance is still there if I am patient enough. I can foresee 1-2 years later, I will have Presta in my portfolio.

Anyway, I recommended the “value” to many. Some bought it at 2.63 and enjoy the 10% return in weeks, some are like me, slow and stingy Ah Pek, missed the boat.

Thank you as it was first recommended by you.

When I wrote the comment, my mind was in 2008-2011. 80-90% of my current portfolio was built at that period. Browsing back the transactions, I can actually buy at lower price of each transaction if only I were slower. Anyway if putting them into the longer term perspective, the return is still too high as compare to that few cents higher entry prices. Thus, you are right, VALUE is the gist. But I still “want” to practice SLOW. “Want” because it is hard to practice it in real life.

In share investment, it is a reverse case. After finding a good stock to buy, the more you haggle over every ounce of the purchase price, the better you are. It is not a rush game in share investment instead it is a game of slow. There are too many good stocks around for you, if not 林青霞, 林凤娇,王祖贤, you still got 刘亦菲,林志玲, 范冰冰

人與人之間相處，都喜歡和不計較的人在一起，不計較的人剛開始時，看似是失去，但長久下來卻是獲得. 这里我们不说佔他人便宜. The educated new generation like to practice “A-A” or “Dutch”. Especially when come to expenses on social meal in a group.
It looks very fair and reasonable, but the real gainer is still the 不計較的. The 不計較的 are much more welcomed and preferred.

This is one of my latest finding on social behavior. Do you agree?

I read from Bursa, it is 4 cents int div only. There is no 2 cents special div for this year. The 2 cents is of last year.

Since we are now in blog about equity investment, I would like to share my thought that there is one guy in this blog who practices value investment in detail. I found him (actually he disclosed himself) reaps a return which is very marvelous and way above most of the people. Lately I even found that the stocks he analyzed somehow goes up promptly once he put up his analysis. I am not sure if it is a matter of coincident or there are many fund managers or analysts follow him and subsequently pushing the share price going north.

Now the real examples have been continuously demonstrated to us that making money from Bursa can be more certain thru fundamental analysis. So, are we now ready to abort our risky, reckless and “hopeful” methods and start to learn the systematic fundamental analysis? Or we are the immature people as described by马云?

This is a very interesting article. Thank you very much to KW Tan.

人不成熟的第一个特征：就是立即要回报。

人不成熟的第二个特征：就是不自律。

人不成熟的第三个特征：经常被情绪所左右。

人不成熟的第四个特征：不愿学习，自以为是，没有归零心态。

这也可应用在股票投资呀!

Put other biz aspects aside, Harta is now having the most competitive technology in the manufacturing of Nitrile Exam Gloves. 45000 pieces/hour=傲视群雄.

生产技术落后竞争对手的结果

价值投資不靠買氣, 不靠風氣, 只靠底氣

How to make a right ASSESSMENT on “reliable and value” stocks?

Many uncles, aunties and educated youngsters do not know how to assess for a reliable and value stocks. Do not worry, many players in Bursa are like you.

Then how?
Just read as many analyst reports as possible which can be obtained freely from internet. Limit yourself to branded counters, mainly blue chips or the favorite stocks of most of the fund managers, i.e. PBB, MBB, HL, Digi, Maxis, LDady, Nestle, Amway, Genting, YTL etc. Buy in batch ONLY whenever there is a big correction on Bursa. After that, you just sit and wait or keep them for your kids. Many years later you will find yourself having good positive return and better than at least 60% of other players in Bursa.

The above are the real experiences from Millionaire Ah Peks next door. I regret that I only believe Ah Peks lately but not the early years when I entered Bursa.

There is people like a Tauke Soo in a small coffee shop who does not know anything about financial terms, FA or TA. She just has a big remisier who somehow have connection to another Bigger remisier who manages big fund. So when the Bigger remisier accumulates a particular stock in a big way, the big remisier just follow and asking the Tauke Soo to follow. It can be 1-2 months or as fast as 1 week ahead the big news. The big remisier and Tauke Soo are not greedy, just target 25-35% profit after the big news. It was true for many times. Maybe 20% of the times, the stocks were not successfully up, but the lost was minimum as the entry price was at lower side. This was the way the Tauke Soo(or you can call her auntie) made more than million in each hot markets. She was not greedy in each transaction too, just 30000-50000 shares each time.

The far receiver of the info, made paper gain but actual lost as being informed the buy time but now selling time. Each transaction was confirmed with one big news follow suits after the purchase.

So friends, you have no way to dance with them.

Therefore I try to invest with my own very simple ways, find a reliable and value stocks and buy during correction times, then just Sit and Wait for long long times. As long as my ASSESSMENT on “reliable and value” are right, I will beat the market in long run.

Good Luck.

I guess he talked about Genting's book value(bv).

特别转送给Tan KW and KC Chong: 只為付出，不計回報=德. Thank you very much.

Hi haikeyila: pls read thread Prelexus.

Hi haikeyila : I saw somebody misused your picture and profile. Please check yourself or you are King too ?

Hi JustinGD: I knew Prestariang from KCChongNZ and recommended it to you in your blog. KCChong is the man, not bsngpg.
I recommended it to many others, good thing should be spread wide. Thks to KCChong.

鎮定中的智慧不会从天而降

If your portfolio is full of blue chips or the real solid 2nd liners, you have nothing to worry when the Big Bear massacres. Few years later you will back to somebody again (好汉). Best still, you would most likely be even better than before from the biz growth of your solid portfolio.

鎮定中的智慧 is not coming easy or hollow behind. There are plenty of preparation, hard work and determination up front in building the solid portfolio.

I have a half-solid portfolio only. How about you?

Hi KC Chong: 最终收到. Some people score good result in school by smartness whereas some by hard working. I am certainly the later. Until today I am still not smart but hard working.

I read thru your advices for at least 15 times, at last I GOT it.
Thank you very much for your advices.

I regret too by jumping recklessly into JT at that time. I had paid for the price. I think he was joking by saying not understanding financial statement. 还是会相信人性本善, 切不再用血汗钱去相信.

送给你: 无言感激 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9vIkP19xfE

Hi KC Chong :

I am confused if the advices were given to me as your sentence started with you(me)but ended with “well being of himself” instead of “yourself(me)”.

If the advices were for me, I feel very lucky to have advices and very please to listen (受教) as I always see you as a knowledgeable good guy who willing to share. Thank you very much.

But please help to clear my doubt if the two big advices (paragraph) relate to me.

i) I like to check background of directors for their competency, integrity and vision but never for hero worshiping.

ii) I always said I am shameful for not understanding financial statement, and is learning to understand it. Am I really posted an image as described in paragraph 2 ? OMG, I hated myself if I did.

Hi KC : Please clarify. I will appreciate your truth words with open heart. Tell me the truth, please.

Avocado_C : If you want, I can buy you as many as you want. They are cheap, RM20, RM50 etc.

Hi KC Chong :
Thank you for your prompt response.

My data:
Jun 13 to Dec13 : KLCI 1774 -->1835=+3.4%

Jun 13 to Dec13 : PIE(4.4-->6.6=50%) switched to GTronic (2.2-->3.1=48%). Switch or hold is insignificant different.

Jun 13 to Dec13 : Notion(0.735-->0.71=-3.4% )

Jun 13 to Dec13 : Mahsing (2.32--->2.2=-5.2% )(adj 20% bonus and 76 sens div in Jul and Sep 13)

Jun 13 to Dec13 : CIMB (8.15-->7.7=-5.5% )(adj 12.8sens div)

If we know how to assess good stocks just to make the same return as the broad mktg, not to mention better than the broad mktg, sell and switch is the winner.

Hi KC Chong:
i) 53% return if “hold till today”.

ii) What is the % return of the actual case where some stocks were sold and switched to others or holding cash?

iii) I am curious to know if “hold till today” is better than “sell/switch some to other stocks half way “? Or other wise?
Thks

Hi Eric: Somebody talked great about Inari, I do not want to study it due to its low end electronic mfg services industry and ACE mktg. But there was one interesting thing that it's CEO has very ambitious aim to grow the company to very big in foreseeable short timeframe. . Do you study this one too? I am not. Good luck. It is nice to talk to you. Bye.

闲谈=别当真

Hi Eric : Aiyoh , my dear friend, while most of the people try to avoid HDD, you chose two counters on HDD. I salute you. Do you know that as at today I made a very significant return on all counters bought in 2010 as the index then was very low. There is only one exception which is Notion, not to mention profit; I am still making 34% loss from the day I bought in 2010. Why don't you chose Prestariang?