HwangDBS andSHOT UP a huge 1.61 to 7.00!:-)

By the way, my comment above shouldn't be taken to mean that I'm recommending a buy - it's just my own personal observation. For all you know, it might slide further tomorrow if there is heavy selling by the big boys. Its moving average doesn't signal a "Buy" yet, although this in itself doesn't necessarily mean it will go down further.

I'm interested in YTL Power because: (1) I like its power-generating business and feel the company has enough smart people to know what to do with its YES network. (2) It gives regular dividends. (3) It's a big-cap counter (this is what the foreign fund managers buy, although it's a double-edged sword. (4) I already have some lots at 1.70-something - if it goes down to a certain price, I will buy more to average the price.

The charts say it is oversold, which means there should be some technical rebound. YTL Power seems to be like MRCB in a few ways - out of nowhere, when speculators think a bottom has been reached, they would jump in. However, both also don't seem to have backbones the past few weeks - traders would sell after getting just a few sen. Can't blame them though, in this kind of market. Often, it's better to sell and run after making a small profit... and wait for it to go down again.

Wonder what's the problem? Its power generating business is doing well enough, and YES just won the 1Bestarinet internet project for schools. This is also a company that pays dividends every quarter. But the price has been going down.

It was lethargic for the past week or so regardless of whether the general market was up or down. But there were some positive buying activities in the afternoon today. Let's see whether there is renewed interest in Hiaptek tomorrow.

I'd say SB will likely undergo a capital reduction since it doesn't have the option of calling for a rights issue. If I'm not mistaken, rights must be at least at par value and not less. Who in his right mind would want to subscribe for 50 sen/share when you can get it at 15 from the open market? Only then can it call for a rights issue. Many companies have done it this way during their restructuring. SB's NTA *is said* to be 52 sen. But a stringent auditing might reveal a figure of much less.

Anyway, speculating-wise -- regardless of the financial mess SB is in, I would say there should be *some* value left in it, no?...that it won't go totally down the drain...? Let's consider these: (1) The negative aspects are now all *mostly* known. We are just waiting to know about the exact financial situation from the current auditing. (2) What other nasty surprises could there possibly be? (3) The bad news has already been factored in its current price.

So, how much lower could it possibly go - would it go below or close to 10 sen? Your guess is as good as mine. But to me it should be at or very very near its bottom. In the event of some sort of positive news, there's a very real possibility it would rise to 20 sen and above. Percentage-wise, that would translate into some serious $$$ since it's a counter that you can easily own at least 50, 100 or more lots. I'm weighing the reward-to-risk and decide whether I would dare to take the plunge.

It's always like this for us traders - sceptical and doubtful when the price is at x (like MRCB now at 1.69)... and then kicking ourselves with that "If only I had bought!" when it goes up to its usual 2.00-plus range:-) If the Europe and US markets don't `kacau' too much and affect the sentiments here, MRCB should recover from its current oversold position very soon.

Even if HwangDBS has brought the TP to 2.70, there's still a lot of upswing from its current 1.69. There's money to be made here if we can hang on for a while.

I didn't do anything today - already have some lots at 1.72. Looking to see how the US and European markets go tonight, plus Hong Kong in the morning. If the 1.68 support holds, which I think it will, might buy more tomorrow. At the same time, am also watching Mudajaya - both it and MRCB came down to attractive levels.

I've been reading about this company, including the one issued by CIMB today. This is one of those gems with a very good potential, although its price movements might sometimes give investors a heart attack Heheh!

Just consider its EPS - 2010 = 39 sen; 2011 = 42 and 2012 (projected) 49 - and increasing after that. By right, it should be priced at least in the 3.00-4.00. There are many dumbass companies with EPS of less than 20 sen now in this price range. It closed at 2.74 today which I feel makes it extremely reasonable. I would be comfortable holding this kind of company. Going to try scrape some money so that I buy and keep until it goes past 3.00.

Aiseh! Today the market got spooked by Europe and the US. Will have to see how these markets perform tonight. Only then will MRCB get the momentum again. Anyway, if the price goes lower tomorrow, I'll see it as a good opportunity to buy.

Michael: Maybe you had gone in a bit too early. But company-wise, Zelan looks like one with potential. I'm keeping a very close watch on this and waiting to jump in.

Very true. So often, the KLSE index doesn't mean much to the average trader who doesn't hold those blue chip, index-linked counters. Regardless of the index, there are always opportunities in the market for traders. As always, it's a question of when to get in on any given counter.

Really hope so. I'm going to buy more if it goes down a bit today. The Eastern Dispersal Link in JB - there should be an announcement soon about toll collection. Or whether the government wants to be popular, buy it from MRCB and let it be free. Either way, MRCB won't lose.

Good day for MRCB. Now at 1.74. Let's hope institutional investors don't dump their shares and upset the momentum.

Share buybacks by the company yesterday - 300k units.

Let's see how it goes tomorrow; whether they can sustain the same interest.

MRCB is going up...

Still very volatile! Now down to 3.93.

Technically, it's way in the oversold territory right now. *Seems* to be stabilising in the 3.99-4.00 area. Almost all who sell at this price aren't making any money, unless if they are investors who had bought it months ago. It should rebound a bit at this point. Watching VERY closely...

Petra Energy, the current "flavour of the week", seeing a lot of interest right now due to Perdana's sale. Up 10 sen already today at 1.26 - and it was at around 1.07 last week. But if it's for the longer term, Perisai seems like a better company. But of course, for traders, it's the short-term potential that's a lot more important:-)

I don't think it will go that far. Now at 3.95 - buyers are getting the same discount as given by Ananda's sellers gang. It will most likely move up again because this counter is closely followed by many. There's money to be made - and lost. The question - as always - is at what price and WHEN do we go in?

Gyrating wildly right now - up, down, up, down...

This sounds like a very promising company. Business-wise, Perisai is better than Perdana Petroleum and Petra Energy. CIMB is very enthusiastic about Perisai - so too is Maybank. There's a comprehensive report about it last March.

Based on its historical price, there doesn't seem to be much downside risk. Perdana is making losses and have debts but these are already well-known facts. The most attractive aspect is the tender for its share of Petra Energy of which it owns around 26% - that means money coming in, although a lot would be used towards paying off the debts.

I'm wondering which would be better - Perdana or Petra Energy?

Perdana selling Petra Energy. The latter has gone up but not by too much (at 1.14). Its sale price at one times book value is 1.52. Both are worth watching. Where is Mohd Shuk - camana bro?

It *seemed* to have stabilised at 4.01 around 3.00pm onwards. I might have missed the ship. We'll see next Monday.

Chong: Agreed. If those guys are getting a 6% discount, then I think we should get it too. And as Mohd Shuk said, the downward trend could be just temporary. I think we shouldn't hold it over the weekend; let's see how it goes on Monday.

Shares pulak BANYAK. Ada keraguan boleh sustain price atau turun bila ramai yang nak cash-kan shares ni.

A 3-6% discount when based on yesterday's 4.22 price should be 4.10-3.97. Ananda and his bumi partners would still hold 55% of the company. Nothing much about it should change just because of this private placement so I'd say all the analysts' TP would still be valid.

[QUOTED]
Ananda pares down stake
Tycoon Ananda Krishnan and his bumiputera partners will sell roughly 15% of offshore services provider Bumi Armada Bhd in private placements to local and foreign institutional investors in a deal that will raise close to RM2.0bil.

Financial executives involved in the placement told The Edge Financial Daily that the sale of roughly 440 million shares in Bumi Armada would cut the joint holdings of Ananda and his bumiputera partners to 55% in the company.

One financial executive said the deal will widen their shareholder base and raise a little money. He added that shares would be placed out at a discount of between 3% and 6% of the current trading price. Sales could be tweaked slightly upwards if there is strong response.

The planned placement, which will be finalised in the coming days, represents the latest in a series of asset sales involving units in Ananda's diversified corporate empire. ' The Edge

Mohd Shuk - Tolong tengok ye, and tolong bagitau kami bila time elok sikit nak masuk. Surely mesti ada rebound sikit-sikit kan?

And today HwangDBS came up with a Buy at 4.22 with a TP of 5.20. One of the worst timing I've ever seen!

You've gotten this 100% correct! It went down sharply today (Friday).

It's now at 4.03 or so after news that Ananda Krishnan is selling. If we had listened to all those analysts' who had recommended a Buy on 17 April, we'd be in trouble. It's okay to take their analyses into account but we must use our own judgement when deciding - it's *our* money.

By the way, here is a good site to start learning about technical charts "Basics Of Technical Analysis" (Investopedia.com): http://bit.ly/JWJiWQ

Gajah: The RRI land (if MRCB does get its share) will definitely boost the price. But I think the Eastern Dispersal Link (EDL) in Johor Baru might be an even bigger boost. This is already completed - the problem is the uncertainty about toll collections. But whatever, MRCB is fully covered here. Tak kan kerajaan nak buat aniaya kat MRCB!? It shouldn't be too long before something is announced about this - the CEO had said "in May".

Buying counters perceived as "Umno & BN-connected" now would also be a bet that they will do better in the next GE as compared to 2008. Regardless of one's political inclinations, I'd say it would be better for us to think about *ourselves*, selfish as it may seem. If we can benefit financially from something, I say why not?

I have the feeling Umno and BN are going to do better in the coming GE, so part of my portfolio will definitely have counters like MRCB - and especially when it is selling at significantly below 2.00. In my opinion, at current prices, one is bound to make a profit "sooner or later". The million ringgit question is WHEN to buy to get the biggest bang for the buck. If only we really know the answer.

Technical analyses and charts etc. are definitely useful. However, they are just tools which may or may not be correct. Often, prices don't go up or down in a straight line and the analysis of charts and statistics can result in distortion and multiple interpretations by different people. Sometimes, the price has gone significantly higher already before an upward movement becomes clear.

As such, we as individuals will have to also rely on our own judgement and this includes old-fashioned experience, common sense and whatever gut feeling that we may have, unscientific and un-technical that it is.

Anyway, my own strategy is this: I'm buying a certain percentage of my budget now while holding the rest. If it goes lower, I'll buy some more. If an upward trend looks convincing enough, then all the money goes in. This way I'll get something if it does go up suddenly while still having some capital in hand in case it goes south.

Support kat 1.68. Baru ni dah nak start uptrend. Tapi kelmarin EPF kacau daun pergi jual. Dok tengok dulu pagi ni situasi camana.

nubhan: That has often proven to be the way some savvy investors with nerves of steel have made money - not 10-15 sen/unit profits but big money of more than a 50% return. It's difficult to do, going against the crowd; of buying when everyone else is gloomy and staying away. It pays to have a list of good companies to follow, keep our gunpowder dry and use it when these opportunities appear.

Namoyaki: She has now given the okay and I'm going in tomorrow morning (Friday). That's how we operate - I choose the counters while she gets to decide on when. This way, we can blame the other should things go wrong Haha!

But seriously, I hope these assumptions will be correct:
1) It has gone down quite a lot already (although it's always possible the price could go down even further). At the very least, buying at the current price is better than doing the same a month ago.

2) The Star said the lack of any news impetus is the reason why the price has gone down. Conversely, some announcement should see the reverse.... and MRCB might have something to say real soon.

3) The Eastern Dispersal Link (EDL) in Johor - I feel MRCB is more than adequately covered here. They can't start toll collections yet through no fault of their. I'm sure the government will be fair and compensate them for not keeping to its side of the 2008 agreement. And if the government wants to be popular due to the coming elections (by making it toll free), it will have to buy the EDL from MRCB... at a premium. A decision will be made in May at the latest, and this should move the price. Upwards, I hope.

4) RRI Sg Buloh development - EPF hasn't announced who would get what and how much. But it shouldn't be long before it does that. I've heard from a RRI employee that the rubber trees there will be cut soon and the staff are in the midst of moving. Don't know who will get the parcels of land but I'm betting MRCB to be one of the companies.

It won a contract in the Middle East and analysts are rating it as a Buy. It has actually gone down 3 sen today. The 1.68-1.76 price range looks attractive although those who had bought at the top end would be rather anxious.

Namoyaki: Saved by my wife yesterday. She asked me to refrain and wait a bit more although I had strongly felt it has gone down all the way already. This technical analysis report is looking to be right more and more:
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/fdblog/211158.jsp

It's holding steady at 1.78. The recent slide is likely over although you never know. But whatever, I'd say that the current price is very reasonable and one *should* be able to make some profit in the short term... within one month?

cmlooi: Yes, that is one aspect that must be given some consideration at all times. You just don't know what lies around the corner - some thing or another could pop up just like that and drag the market down. This has happened numerous times in the past.

I remember one incident in the early 90's (before the great bull run) - trouble in the Soviet Union and President Gorbache's position was threatened by hardliners. Our shares immediately tumbled. But as you have said, it offers a great opportunity to pick up strong counters. This is when we need to have dry gunpowder and the guts to go against the majority. The market would rebounded and big profits are to be made.

Looks very attractive and I'm itching to buy. Especially after good performance in US and European markets last night, which *should* lift sentiments here. Or maybe I should be patient and wait just *a bit* more... Have to make a decision fast.

Thanks for the analysis. I'm watching this counter closely - *looks* like it's going up but I'm going to do what you say and wait a bit (although I'm itching to buy at this very moment).

I would read what these analysts say. But I won't act according to what they say. Today, almost all (except Affin) recommended Bumi Armada. It went down. Yes, their reports could be useful. But only if you are thinking of the longer term - NEVER for contra decisions. Often, they might be right IN THE LONG RUN.

I agree with Adam Ryan in that it's best to do our own research. I'd use these analysts' reports only as a supplement to either help support my own decision or to make more pause and give something more thought (and not do anything). After all, it's OUR money that's on the line here, not theirs.

kikoshi: Yup. And many joined in this morning to push the price to 4.53... and then it retreated to 4.41. Affin got it right with this advice in its morning flash: "REDUCE, downgrade - Time to lock in some profits".

Yazid: I was about to jump in at 2.30pm when it was at 4.46. But fortunately had cold feet.

yen boy: Thanks. So, despite the drop, it appears that Kurnia is presently selling at a very reasonable price. OSK has even upped the FV from 77 to 82 sen. Time to buy?