calvin.... hos is it that you know exactly when steveccwong will write his comment and then you conveniently follow up next saying good work wong..... and write yours not just here but also elsewhere..... hmmmm
My way of evaluating plantation companies, by comparing EV (enterprise value) of their planted oil palm estates.
My formula may be a bit different from others. EV = market cap + total liabilities - current assets - other non-related business.
For TSH, EV = 2214m Planted oil palm estate = 42,495 ha, 15% in Sabah, 85% in Indonesia. Therefore, EV / ha = RM52,111 / ha
For HSPLANT, EV = 1761m Planted oil palm estate = 35,434 ha, 100% in Sabah, Therefore, EV / ha = RM49,708 / ha
As I know, the market price for planted oil palm estate in Sabah is around RM80,000. So HSPLANT is cheap. But for Indonesia, I do not know the market price / ha. It is better not to take risk, I think HSPLANT is the better choice.
One more important thing, HSPLANT has a 60% dividend policy, I estimate the EPS this year would be 36 sen, or dividend = 60%*36 sen = 21.6 sen. Meaning after collecting the 21.6 sen dividend, the EV / ha would be even cheaper.
As at 25/8/22, CPO fob Malaysia was usd1,069/mt. SBO ex Rotterdam was usd1,655/mt. CPO is cheaper ridiculously by usd586/mt ! When CPO stock pressure ease in Indonesia soon , the price gap should narrow to usd200/mt with CPO price potentially increase by usd386/mt or RM1,700/mt. This shall bring CPO back to around RM6,000/mt. SBO price has little chance to go down with weather havoc in Europe, China and U.S.
Chicago soybean futures rose past $16 per bushel in late August, the highest in over two months, amid concerns of poor growing conditions in the US and higher import demand from major consumer China. Heatwaves in the American Midwest hampered the supply outlook on the current crop, as weather forecasts still do not favor clear indications of rain for the coming days. In the meantime, record-setting heatwaves for multiple Chinese regions damaged the incoming crop, driving grain traders to enter international soybean markets.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....