cephasyu | Joined since 2016-02-01

Investing Experience -
Risk Profile -





Blog Posts









Total comments
Past 30 days
Past 7 days

User Comments
News & Blogs

2017-02-14 19:40 | Report Abuse

Well said lol

abangadik super geng... close eye play golf make money..
14/02/2017 19:33

News & Blogs

2017-02-14 11:20 | Report Abuse

Good call. I have a strong suspicion that the Q earnings will be very strong due to high CPO prices, high FFB production and the appreciation of the IDR vs the MYR which they have a 300+mil fixed income investment denominated in IDR

News & Blogs
News & Blogs

2017-02-02 18:56 | Report Abuse

MJ, a few things have changed in the month of Jan.

Specifically, FFHB has broken upwards from the downtrend resistance line. Is it a good time now?

News & Blogs
News & Blogs

2017-02-02 13:37 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the explanation!
Uchitec is a good example too

News & Blogs

2017-02-01 10:10 | Report Abuse

Just wondering. I bought Arank when it retraced to the channel support and I sold it at the upper resistance of the channel.
But now it broke the upper channel resistance, what does that mean?

News & Blogs

2017-02-01 09:58 | Report Abuse

It looks like it's forming a handle with the base of 86c.
It might retest 1.04 again

News & Blogs

2017-01-31 23:51 | Report Abuse

Oh lol, looks like it was my bad for not reading properly haha

News & Blogs

2017-01-31 19:36 | Report Abuse

Why don't we wait for it to break 64.5 convincingly before entering?

News & Blogs

2017-01-18 19:13 | Report Abuse

He spent RM5.02 mil (25,119,467 X 0.20 rights) for the rights and then sold 21.1mil shares over the last 2 weeks to recover RM4.67mil (21,100,000 X 0.2188).

So technically he has RM351K that he still needs to cover, unless he is using his savings or margin account to top up to buy those shares


2017-01-18 18:56 | Report Abuse

The director has to sell now, because he borrowed money for the rights and now has to sell the mother to pay back for the rights.
He isn't paid that much to be able to afford millions for the rights issue


2016-11-23 15:29 | Report Abuse

Thanks hng33, all the best to you too with your decisions to free up your capital.


2016-11-23 14:37 | Report Abuse

I agree hng33, there is substantial risk in the plywood division of JTiasa.
The log division might be able to support the plywood in addition to the strong FFB harvest with high CPO prices.


2016-11-23 12:14 | Report Abuse

I highly doubt 100m PAT is possible.

Nevertheless, I agree with YiStock, that the worst case scenario is matching Q2 and there is a good probability that it will outperform that.

Kianjoo is contributing record profit which will flow to Canone.


2016-11-23 11:47 | Report Abuse

I apologize, on the point below I made an error:

3. Taann's profit was actually quite strong. The only thing was that in the previous year, they recorded such strong profits due to forex gains (net cash with USD) that they could not beat that quarter

In reality, Taann in the corresponding Q last year had a Reversal of impairment loss on
property plant and equipment amounting to RM13.5m significant one off gain on top of forex gains.


2016-11-23 11:42 | Report Abuse

It's easy to take WTK's result and project it on JTiasa assuming that their timber and log division will drag Jtiasa down.

A few things that could be helpful in making your decision:
1. WTK's palm oil are still young. They are making losses
2. WTK suffered from one off loss from disposal of subsidiary
3. WTK's Timber division continued to be profitable in the latest Q
4. 81% of WTK's revenue comes from Timber and 2.5% from palm oil

So you shouldn't be so quick to superimpose WTK's result on JTiasa.

For JTiasa a few important things
1. Palm oil has been growing significantly while timber slows down due to the stricter chief minister
2. Most palm oil players are chalking record earnings (cepat, Tecguan, Inno). Some players are getting hit such as FGV due to bad investment in Turkey. Just because they had a bad quarter due to bad governance does not mean Palm oil is doing poorly
3. Taann's profit was actually quite strong. The only thing was that in the previous year, they recorded such strong profits due to forex gains (net cash with USD) that they could not beat that quarter

I could be wrong about JTiasa and they could be performing below expectations, but I agree with FSL that this is still an undervalued stock with significant profit growth from maturing plantations moving forward.

Please use your own discretion

News & Blogs

2016-11-17 14:17 | Report Abuse

Thanks for sharing, Icon888. Great call on AAsia

If you have the time, it'd be great to see a writeup on Jtiasa. Also, do you have an opinion of their coming Q earnings? Thanks


2016-10-31 10:32 | Report Abuse

Friends, what happened is that last week, one of the deputy minister in the PM dept indicated that the stupid Eagle deal is still under negotiations. That's why it dropped on Tuesday last week.

On Wednesday, the FGV CEO (this guy is legit) made a public statement that the Eagle deal is shit and it isn't going to happen, which is why FGV rebounded on Wednesday.

However, during the weekend, the Edge reported that the gov is setting up a steering committee for FGV which is above the BOD. This is bad because this steering committee can essentially force all decisions on the FGV board and CEO.

This increases the probability of the Eagle deal back on the table, which is why markets are hammering FGV today.

I wouldn't try to catch a falling knife.

News & Blogs

2016-10-12 22:21 | Report Abuse

LK036, why is kernal price increasing more than CPO?

Also, thanks for sharing, OP

News & Blogs

2016-09-05 18:43 | Report Abuse

wow Calvin, I didn't know you were a fan of D.L. Moody

News & Blogs

2016-08-19 17:04 | Report Abuse

Thanks guys - for the good encouragement.

They're definitely going to take time to move into their new strategic direction. Be patient people. Don't look for short term gains.


2016-08-16 00:20 | Report Abuse

Indeed. Fnatic!!!


2016-08-15 20:45 | Report Abuse

Too bad they got 3rd at TI2016


2016-08-15 19:09 | Report Abuse

I'm confused what these guys are doing @_@

Bursa announced that FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC acquired 80K Gadang shares.

News & Blogs

2016-08-15 18:47 | Report Abuse

Thanks guys, for the encouragement. I'm still learning how to write better.

Do let me know if there are any potential risks that I'm missing out!

News & Blogs

2016-08-15 18:40 | Report Abuse

Hey Gainvestor, thanks for the detailed writeup. I learnt a lot about what Yeelee does in like 10 minutes.
Hope you give a TP next time! :D

News & Blogs

2016-08-15 17:34 | Report Abuse

Yes, if you assume that there is no premium or discount then the WC is worth 86cents.

News & Blogs

2016-08-11 10:09 | Report Abuse

Sorry Shareinvestor88, it's not easy to find information on IQ. They are very under the radar.
What I can tell you so far is that it is very interesting that their latest Q their revenue is quite high, which is unusual since Q1 of the year is usually their weakest quarter.

News & Blogs

2016-08-04 23:53 | Report Abuse

Haha I think still okay - few punters that will TP at this junction

But the important point is the Q result coming out this month

News & Blogs

2016-07-19 16:37 | Report Abuse

Hey guys, thanks for the encouraging comments!

eskaylien sorry for the late reply. The reason why I'm only expecting 40c EPS is because I am assuming a USD/MYR forex of 4.00.

For forex players, there are two forex effects. One is the forex impact on the BS and the other is on the P/L. I've explained it in my Classic Scenic article and you can read it there.

In any case, even though Q1 2016 ending forex was at 3.92, the average forex for the quarter was actually 4.20 which is quite high. I am assuming that for the rest of the year, the USD will hover at around RM4.00.

News & Blogs

2016-07-02 11:47 | Report Abuse

Bone, thank you for your writeup. I do appreciate it.

One quick question:

From my understanding A-rank is a mid-stream player buying aluminium from p-metal and manufacturing billets.

From their Q reports, it implies that A-rank is a cost plus player. Since it is a cost plus player, how does higher raw material prices (aluminium) benefit A-rank?


News & Blogs

2016-06-20 14:53 | Report Abuse

Thanks for summarizing the KCChong & Stockmanmy debate with your own flavor. Great read!

News & Blogs

2016-06-20 12:36 | Report Abuse

Thanks Ong, Icon888.
Well done on your AAsia pick, Icon. I wish I bothered to study it. I was too biased against airlines to even look at it which was my folly.

aidwiz, the other notable Malaysian competitor is E-Wood Moulding (S/B). According to their website, they are the largest picture frame manufacturer in Malaysia.
Unfortunately it isn't listed so it's difficult to compare

News & Blogs

2016-05-28 11:53 | Report Abuse

Ben, can you please explain how uber will affect the number of cars passing tollways?


2016-04-05 17:37 | Report Abuse

The resistance for this stock has been 71.5cents for the last 6 months. Now that that's been broken, the next resistance should be 82c. Let's see where this'll go


2016-04-04 20:21 | Report Abuse

This heatwave is gonna increase electricity consumption through AC. My house power bill is demmmm expensive now

News & Blogs

2016-03-21 20:22 | Report Abuse

Hi Murali, first of all, thank you for your guidance :)
Indeed it is true that warrants > RM1 have low premiums. The Black Scholes model does address the implied leverage, however on a peer comparison basis, you are right in pointing out the observation that absolute value warrants (on Bursa at least) command lower premiums. I think that using an arbitrage "if > RM1, low premium" is a little odd, but the market does behave that way.

Shaun, thanks for your very articulated comment. I need to think about it for a little longer as I am under the impression that since the ex of the WR, the market has auto-adjusted the price of the mother. We would calculate the adjusted mother price if we wanted to compute the value of the warrant cum-WR but at ex, I think using the market price of the mother is sufficient.
Nevertheless, I will investigate your point. Thank you.

News & Blogs

2016-03-21 19:04 | Report Abuse

Sorry I have a full time job :(
Don't worry, I don't think the WE will open up at 1.57 tomorrow. There will always be chance. Maybe US markets are bad tonight?


2016-03-18 10:49 | Report Abuse

LOL Kakashit you're hilarious

News & Blogs

2016-03-15 17:48 | Report Abuse

Dayummmmm, what a well researched report. I need to learn from you

pingdan, are you confusing homeriz with hume?

News & Blogs

2016-03-15 17:25 | Report Abuse

Hey JT, I am very interested in reading superforcasting. Hook a brother up. cephas.yu@gmail.com

Soojinhou, you're right. If there's a shift in the industry, we just gotta keep our eyes peeled to ensure that we don't die while it goes down. Johotin is a little different though, they have a lot of teething issues with their new factory, and therefore are registering very weak profits. Finally, you're absolutely right about the risk of Aspire extending again. We should expect an announcement by next week if they're kicking the can down the road again.

Paperplane, I agree with you. The assumptions are always dangerous, and I may be completely off. I basically try with the best reason that I can muster but it may be still completely off. Please change the valuation basis and the math will follow. All the workings are in the article :)

News & Blogs

2016-03-14 18:24 | Report Abuse

JT Yeo, you're absolutely right.

I may be wrong here, but I am writing that new information may provide a catalyst for short term movement. however in the long term, unless there's a shift in the environment or business, the TP should prevail.

News & Blogs

2016-03-14 13:33 | Report Abuse

Thanks Mat Cendana! Please check out the updated article!

News & Blogs

2016-03-08 17:26 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the quick reminder.
It's easy to get caught in the fear on one side and greed on the other

News & Blogs

2016-03-07 20:04 | Report Abuse

Thanks value88. Your comment means a lot to me! Much obliged :)

News & Blogs

2016-03-05 08:42 | Report Abuse

Wow, thank you pure bull!!
I will read your blog diary for sure. And thanks again for writing so extensively. I'll definitely check the charting program out and read more on technicals