syok loh fundamental counter like homeriz kena goreng....go go go

go go go

kikikiki

Why want to sell when IV is still far..enjoy the ride guys...congrats

wahhh...what happen? Congrates everyone!!

Best article of all!!Like x 10

forgotten gem

Probability, I think this is a good idea, will send you a mail after this.

Resend resend..hehehe

Discount Cash Flow Analysis
Valuation on MAGNI


Table 1.1:
Current stock price $3.52
Share outstanding (Mil) 108488
This year FCF (3 years Avg) $31,199
Next year's FCF (mil) $32,759
Growth for the next 5 and 10 years 5.0%
Teminal growth rate, g 3.00%
Discount rate, R 10.0%

Table 1.2: DCFA
PV of FCFF of core operations $532,000
Non-operating cash $71,268
Investment in Properties $0
Investment Securities $24,464
Debts $0
PV of FCFE $627,732
Less minority interest ($35) 0.01%
FCFE $627,697
Number of shares 108488
FCF per share $5.79 64%
MOS 39%


Fair Value is RM5.79, potential gain of 64% from current price

congrates all...yehaaaaa

m00077, KC have said many times in his article, DCFA assumption is very subjective. The assumption that i used for Magni analysis is very conservative estimate as what probability said. I believe investing in this kind of stock is very safe, downside is low.

ccs999, neck long liao arr...

m0007, DCFA- Discount Cash Flow Analysis
FCFF- Free Cash Flow to Firm
FCFE- Free Cash Flow to Equity

I would suggest you attend KC online course for a small fee, you will be greatly benefited from his training if you put in some effort, believe me.

RM 1 at least

Still have plenty MOS....

Discount Cash Flow Analysis
Valuation on MAGNI


Table 1.1:
Current stock price $3.52
Share outstanding (Mil) 108488
This year FCF (3 years Avg) $31,199
Next year's FCF (mil) $32,759
Growth for the next 5 and 10 years 5.0%
Teminal growth rate, g 3.00%
Discount rate, R 10.0%

Table 1.2: DCFA
PV of FCFF of core operations $532,000
Non-operating cash $71,268
Investment in Properties $0
Investment Securities $24,464
Debts $0
PV of FCFE $627,732
Less minority interest ($35) 0.01%
FCFE $627,697
Number of shares 108488
FCF per share $5.79 64%
MOS 39%


Fair Value is RM5.79, potential gain of 64% from current price

A so call noble person like KYY should not use harsh words,look down & attack people if others dont agree with your stock pick. KC intention is for sharing knowledge & exchanging ideas where everyone can contribute & learn from this forum. He should apologise to KC & others

My fried whatsapp me, buy VS now..now..!.My remiser told me " This year is VS year" You must buy this stock, buy big. That time the price was traded in the range of RM3.2. When i look at VS financial statement, nothing good really and i decided not to buy. yeah, the price went up to RM4.11 as of today.
Regret?? No I dont regret as I always hold to my value investing principle.

coolio,

Remember we talked about Magni-tech here a year ago:

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/51356.jsp

Magni's share price was just RM2.69. Its FCF in 2013 was 23m. With the no. of shares at 108m, its CY was 12.3%! At that time, it was a NBI. One year later now, it is RM3.41, or a gain of 27% against almost a flat KLCI.

Now although its share price has risen its FCF also has improved a lot to RM36.8m. At the present price and the average 3-years FCF, your computation of CY of 8.5% is still very high.

Yes, I think it is still a NBI.


KC,

Yes, still fresh in my mind. Glad that Im still holding Magni. I believe good to have Magni in my long term portfolio

Let me try with MFCB

Below shows the FCF for the last 3 years

Year ended 2014 2013 2012
CFFO 157,447.00 122,604.00 114,556
Capex -78955 -68281 -23217
FCF 78492 54323 91339
FCF/Revenue 11.7% 8.6% 14.4%
CFFO/NI 225% 166% 198%

The average FCF for the last three years is 74.7m, with the last year FCF at 78.49m. We take the average of last three years' FCF.

At RM2.40 closed today, and no. of shares 242.5m, CY = 74.7/242.5*2.40=12.84%. This CY is thrice you can get from bank FD. Moreover, it has clean balance sheet with a lot of cash in the balance sheet and with little debt. Looks like a NBI to me.


Price 2.40
No. of shares 242455
Market cap 581892
Av FCF 74718
CY 12.84%

How about Magni-Tech?

Below shows the FCF for the last 3 years

Year ended 31/3/11 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
CFFO 43169 29235 36197
Capex -6408 -4322 -4273
FCF 36761 24913 31924
FCF/Revenue 5.6% 4.4% 6.0%
CFFO/NI 103% 82% 118%

The average FCF for the last three years is 31.2m with the last year FCF at 36.76m. We take the average of last three years' FCF.

At RM3.40 closed today, and no. of shares 108.5m, CY = 31.2/108.5*3.40=8.46%. This CY is twice you can get from bank FD. Moreover, it has clean balance sheet with a lot of cash in the balance sheet and with zero debt. Looks like a NBI to me.


Price 3.40
No. of shares 108488
Market cap 368859
Av FCF 31199
CY 8.46%

still have plenty margin of safety at this price

soon will up!!

hope so so that i can collect more

Valuation on FRONTKN 7 APR 2015

Table 6.1: Assumptions
Current stock price $0.19
Share outstanding (Mil) 1008914
This year FCF (Avg last 3 years) $21,058
Next year's FCF (mil) $22,111
Growth for the next 5 and 10 years 5.0% 3%
Teminal growth rate, g 3.00%
Discount rate, R 10.0%

Table 6.2: DCFA
PV of FCFF of core operations $337,000
Non-operating cash $51,575
Investment in Properties $1,730
Investment Securities
Debts ($37,511)
PV of FCFE $352,794
Less minority interest ($67,031) 19.00%
FCFE $285,763
Number of shares 1008914
FCF per share $0.28 53%
MOS 35%


Intrinsic Value of Frontkn is RM0.28. Potential gain of 53%!

Yeah, last 2 quater result was not too good, but I believe long term prospect still intact. Cash rich company

Table 6: Discount Cash Flow Model 1
Valuation on AWC 9 apr 2015

Table 6.1: Assumptions
Current stock price $0.45
Share outstanding (Mil) 255,352
This year FCF (Avg last 5 years) $9,583
Next year's FCF (mil) $10,062
Growth for the next 5 and 10 years 5.0% 3%
Teminal growth rate, g 3.00%
Discount rate, R 10.0%

Table 6.2: DCFA
PV of FCFF of core operations $154,000
Non-operating cash $43,363
Investment in Properties $1,905
Investment Securities $0
Debts ($3,000)
PV of FCFE $196,268
Less minority interest ($59,273) 30.20%
FCFE $136,995
Number of shares 255352
FCF per share $0.54 19%
MOS 16%

Intrinsic Value of AWC is RM0.54. Potential gain of 19%

Table 6: Discount Cash Flow Model 1
Valuation on MMODE 7 apr 2015

Table 6.1: Assumptions
Current stock price $0.45
Share outstanding (Mil) 162,709
This year FCF (Avg last 4 years) $9,615
Next year's FCF (mil) $10,095
Growth for the next 5 and 10 years 5.0% 3%
Teminal growth rate, g 3.00%
Discount rate, R 15.0%

Table 6.2: DCFA
PV of FCFF of core operations $89,000
Non-operating cash $44,192
Investment in Properties
Investment in Associates $8,368
Debts ($1,415)
PV of FCFE $140,145
Less minority interest $0 0.00%
FCFE $140,145
Number of shares 162709
FCF per share $0.86 91%
MOS 48%

Intrinsic Value of Mmode is RM0.86. Potential gain of 91%!

something brewing...

Look like flying now..:))

Lol, Moron Kukuman. What a great article written by KC. We always learn from past and prepare for future. I have benefited alot from KC articles, I even made 38% last year after joining his class. I think you are the only reader here trying to make noise out of nothing.

but -ve cash flow

I calculate the PV of cash flow until year 10 with this formula FCFn*(1+g)+.... Terminal FCF with this formula CFn(1+g)/(R-g). These calculation is abit complicated. i can send you my spead sheet if you want. Between, i learn all this from Kcchongnz course.

miketyu, i'm using average fcf for last 2 years. PV of FCFF is $257,000, add up with additional cash of$34,710 and mius debt 2671, so PV of FCFE is $289039

Cheers to all Homeritz shareholder, below is my ealier posting, still far from instrinsic value :)

Discount Cash Flow Model 1
Valuation on HOMERIZ 8/4/2014

Table 6.1: Assumptions
Current stock price $0.81
Share outstanding (Mil) 200,000
This year FCF (avg last 2 years) $18,295
Next year's FCF (mil) $19,210
Growth for the next 5 and 10 years 5.0% 3%
Teminal growth rate, g 1.00%
Discount rate, R 10.0%

Table 6.2: DCFA
PV of FCFF of core operations $257,000
Non-operating cash $34,710
Investment in Properties Nil
Investment in Associates Nil
Debts ($2,671)
PV of FCFE $289,039
Less minority interest ($462) 0.16%
FCFE $288,577
Number of shares 200000
FCF per share $1.44
MOS 44%

Intrinsic Value of Homeritz is RM1.44. Potential gain of 78%!

I'm a KC student, glad to be his student & great to be his first batch student! what I can say is I really benefited from his course. He inspire you, entertain you (with winning stocks), and you end up learning tons of knowledge even in short period of time and you will be able to pick your own winning stocks! Cheers

cool..look like hovid is back

March on...

lol

wahhh..look like KSL intoxicated

and many thanks to you stkoay being a faithful and active in KSL forum

still holding tight!!

hehee..Stkoay..I'm happy as ever...I'm giving KSL 10/10

:) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) 10 STARS!!

Involve killing?? what killing? wahh..buying stock also look at this?

new high :)

Excellent Result! also Ptaras proposed to purchase its own shares, Im sure they think it is still very undervalue

Thanks Sephiroth, i would do that as well. Looking at the chart for last few years. The price will surge after div announce and drop back 1 or 2 weeks before ex. and continue to drop after adjusted price after ex date.

Sephiroth, will you hold after exdate Nov?

hope after lunch shoot up again like last few days

bleeding...over expectation