To support YTL share to outperform YTLP, its other division need to perform now:
1. Construction (Gemas double track train, Green data center civil work, EPCC solar power plant, logistic warehouse for Shoppee, UK property development),
2. building material and cement (YTL cement . Mcement),
3. REITS (starhill and YTL hos) + Sentul property development (YTL land)

Upcoming, many catalyst to propel YTL share price higher. Earning contribution ratio will change from current YTLP (60%): others (40%) to YTLP (40%): Others (60%)

1. MRT3 civil contract
2. MRT3 train system contract
3. HSR concession cum construction orderbook
4. Cement and building material (Mcement to report massive EPS hike due to tumbling production cost on coal, continuous elevated cement selling price and maiden dividend is expected)
5. Unlocking Japan landbank, peripheral asset
6. REITS to report massive EPS due to revaluation surplus
7. YTLP to report further increase EPS due to wessex water hike and Power seraya
8. Currency strength on pound, USD and Sgd

Staycations and short hops around South-east Asia seem to be making a comeback, noted YTL Hotels’ chief, as travel demand continues to remain strong after the initial wave of post-lockdown revenge travel.

Mark Yeoh Seok Kah, executive director of YTL Hotels, told TTG Asia that there has been an “upswing in demand on Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays” for YTL properties in its home country Malaysia.

https://www.ttgasia.com/2023/07/06/ytl-hotels-sees-strength-in-south-east-asia-markets/

Francis Yeoh said: I only have one wealth, that is dividend from my share....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZBBU3I1y_I

Remark: Seem Francis Yeoh is eager to retire and wanna to get steady handsome dividend forward. Unlocking prime land in japan, privatize YTLP before listing YTL seraya and wessex water is imminent to boots up dividend payout forward.

The reason why YTL intend to unlock UK wessex water is because recent high inflation in UK have push up wessex water enterprise value significantly。 It next 5 year renewal is due on 2025, will leap up higher traffic rate, which is prime time for YTL to unlock through listing.

On the other hand, YTL power seraya also due to unlock value through listing as it currently enjoy very handsome profit margin 20%.

Such high margin is due to Singapore current imbalance energy demand and supply. New power plant supply only kick start in 2026 and before more import green energy materialize。

Share swap idea is because YTL intend to unlock UK wessex water and Sing Power seraya in next few year. But, the current corporate structure is both of these prime assest are park under YTLP, in which YTL only control 55%.

In order to maximize value, YTL should take over YTLP first, before unlocking UK wessex water and Singapore Power seraya.

Francis Yeoh control 50% YTL
YTL control 55% YTLP
YTLP control 100% Wessex water and 100% Power seraya

If you are francis yeoh, planning to unlock wessex water and power seraya through listing, what should you do?

Remark: Francis Yeoh via family member also have direct stake in YTLP, about 10%

MLFF system is estimated to cost about RM3.46bil, if YTLP successful implement, it will be good long term steady profit, diversifying it earning base to built up Malaysia business to include green data center and MLFF, avoid over dependent on singapore Power seraya and UK wessex water

Francis Yeoh control 50% YTL
YTL control 55% YTLP
YTLP control 100% Wessex water and 100% Power seraya

If you are francis yeoh, planning to unlock wessex water and power seraya through listing, what should you do?

Remark: Francis Yeoh via family member also have direct stake in YTLP, about 10%

Upcoming, many catayst to propel YTL share price higher. Earning contribution ratio may change from current YTLP (60%): others (40%) to YTLP (40%): Others (60%)

1. MRT3 civil contract
2. MRT3 train system contract
3. HSR concession cum construction orderbook
4. Cement and building material (Mcement to report massive EPS hike and maiden dividend is expected)
5. Unlocking Japan landbank, peripheral asset
6. REITS to report massive EPS due to revaluation surplus
7. YTLP to report further increase EPS due to wessex water hike and Power seraya
8. Currency strength

To make 1 for 1 share swap, YTL share need to trade higher than YTLP to make offer attractive. Already, i believe many YTLP shareholder are opt to swap to YTL beforehand now to enjoy higher YTL share price later

To support YTL share to outperfrom YTLP, its other division need to perfrom now, construction (MRT3 + HSR), buidling material and cement (YTL cement . Mcement), REITS (starhill and YTL hos) + property (YTL land) + unlock Japan prime landbank

Its logic for Francis to take over YTLp via share swap before unlock Power seraya and Wessex water. To make share swap attractive, YTL share need to outperfrom and higher than YTLP for 1 to 1 swap

Continue challenge new high

Breaking

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_information/announcements/company_announcement/announcement_details?ann_id=3362284

Revaluation increase REITS properties value by RM 150m

Recent revaluations increased YTL 55% subsidiary, YTL REIT, net asset value by RM 150m or 9 sen per unit of YTL REIT

https://worldview.stratfor.com/situation-report/indonesia-deadline-critical-minerals-export-bans-nears

The Joko Widodo administration has so far been unyielding, insisting that Indonesia is well within its rights to add value to its minerals, specifically nickel, bauxite, copper and tin, to become a newly industrialized state.

Nickel exports were banned in January 2022 and bauxite shipments followed on June 10. Tin and copper bans are scheduled to come next. “We have to dare to take these steps,” Widodo, a fervent advocate of the value-added policy, said last year.

Tin, which is widely used in electrical connectors and touch screens, is also increasingly important to the green energy transition, including its potential use in lithium-ion batteries. Only 5% of tin mined in Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of the refined metal, is processed further in the country.

"In the case of tin, a restriction from Indonesia, in conjunction with the banning of mining in Myanmar's Wa region, is likely to lead to a surge in global tin prices,"

added more MSC at 2.26

sold krono at 58-58.5sen

Current USD 29,425 however still far below if compared to previous record USD 45,000. Many upside potential if both Myammar and indonesia, world top 1 and 3 exporters, respectively, both ban export tin

Tin buyer rush to grab as much as possible on spot price before deadline 1 Aug 2023

Tin spot price surge +USD975.00 (+3.43%), trading now at USD 29,425.00

While cement prices had continued to rise, the pace of the monthly increase had slowed.

MIDF Research noted that the average price of the building material rose for the eighth consecutive month in June by 0.22% m-o-m – its slowest pace of monthly increase since December 2022, to RM22.87 per 50kg bag.

“This was on the back of higher selling prices and lower rebates offered due to higher raw materials cost,” it said.

It noted that the northern region of the Peninsula recorded the highest increase by 1.4% m-o-m to RM22.57 for every 50kg bag, while the central and eastern region rose 0.1% m-o-m and 0.4% m-o-m, respectively, to RM22.03 and RM22.49.

Cement prices remained unchanged in Sabah and Sarawak at RM23.12 per 50kg bag.

Recent revaluations increased the net asset value by RM 150m or 9 sen per unit of YTL REIT

Tin up USD 1239 or 4.43% to USD 29,195 now

:D)

As for commercial viability, Mohd Ikhsan noted that based on 10 HSR operators globally that publish their financial results, nine are “commercially viable at the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) level”

With construction theme (MRT3 and HSR, building material and cement + revaluation surplus on YTLREITS, YTL share price should outperform YTLP soon

Accumulated more YTL, all at 1.10

MRT3 award contract also due to announce

HSR theme is back

cut at 73sen

bought back ytl at 1.10

bought at 97-97.5sen

cut at 90.5-91sen

Tin futures hit $28,000 per tonne, the highest in five months on expectations of a supply shortage in the global tin market. Despite China's slow demand recovery, the upcoming prohibition of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa region and Indonesia's export ban on tin ingots are set to significantly tighten the market. Starting from August 1, 2023, all mining activities, including exploration and processing, will be suspended in the Wa state to preserve remaining resources. Additionally, Indonesia aims to encourage domestic processing by banning the export of tin ingots. Looking ahead, prices are expected to continue rising in the long term, supported by strong demand from the energy transition and green technologies such as solar panels and electric vehicles, along with the persistent tightness in the market.

sold at 50sen

Added more MSC at 2.13-2.14

bought back msc at 2.15-2.17

added more myeg at 75sen

Just wait for update, should be due if kraken successful restore back to 100% production

It is imbalance to known only positive element in stock, it need both positive and potential negative that will affect stock perfromance. Use own discretion to assess risk and reward

It is imbalance to known only positive element in stock, it need both positive and potential negative that will affect stock perfromance. Use own discretion to assess risk and reward

There is pros and cons for cross border electricity trade. The green electricity production cost is Malaysia, Loas is much lower than gas fuel production cost in Singapore. If Singapore gov to import huge green electricity, it will affect Singapore gas fuel power plant profit margin forward. Although most of YTL electricity now is contracted for 6 month- 2year, but if large amount of green energy is export to Singapore, it will affect Singapore wholesale energy price.. If wholesale energy price is much lower than contracted price, it will discourage end user to lock their electricity for long contract period, instead, will opt to source much cheaper power from wholesale market, especially if wholesale power market is flush with green energy supplier.

YTL seraya own 3000 MW gas power plant in singapore and currently enjoy attractive profit margin above 20%.
Since begins 1 July, Singapore wholesale market selling price have normalize, back to range 120-250 MWh compared to earlier selling price level more than 400 MWh and now also lower than contracted power traffic at 289 MWh. If Singapore continue import a lot more energy, it will eventually affect YTL seraya profit margin in future although if can offset partly through cross border trading fees.

Probability
There is pros and cons for cross border electricity trade. The green electricity production cost is Malaysia, Loas is much lower than gas fuel production cost in Singapore. If Singapore gov to import huge green electricity, it will affect Singapore gas fuel power plant profit margin forward. Although most of YTL electricity now is contracted for 6 month- 2year, but if large amount of green energy is export to Singapore, it will affect Singapore wholesale energy price.. If wholesale energy price is much lower than contracted price, it will discourage end user to lock their electricity for long contract period, instead, will opt to source much cheaper power from wholesale market, especially if wholesale power market is flush with green energy supplier.

YTL seraya own 3000 MW gas power plant in singapore and currently enjoy attractive profit margin above 20%.
Since begins 1 July, Singapore wholesale market selling price have normalize, back to range 120-250 MWh compared to earlier selling price level more than 400 MWh and now also lower than contracted power traffic at 289 MWh. If Singapore continue import a lot more energy, it will eventually affect YTL seraya profit margin in future although if can offset partly through cross border trading fees.

https://www.nems.emcsg.com/nems-prices

added more today at 54-54.5sen

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2023/jul/09/jordan-rues-21b-project-with-china/

Under 30-year power purchase deal, Jordan's state-run electricity company will have to buy electricity from the now effectively Chinese-led Attarat at an exorbitant rate that means the Jordanian government would lose $280 million annually, the treasury estimated. To cover the payments, Jordan would have to raise electricity prices for consumers by 17%.
https://www.bing.com/search?q=jordan%2C+attarat&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&ghc=1&lq=0&pq=jordan%2C+attarat&sc=2-15&sk=&cvid=724364ABAA424F59A58E0AB7D9CB62AF&ghsh=0&ghacc=0&ghpl=

If Jordan gov only willing to pay 50% of the agree electricity traffic to YTL attarat power plant, the viability of power plant will be in doubt as cash flow will be unable to meet debt repayment schedule to bank in accord to financing agreement

Once power plant start commissioning, all interest cannot capitalize as cost and depreciation and amortization will incur in balance sheet.