Singapore energy demand will continue surging due to aggressive gov policy to encourage EV charging station to meet vertical growing in EV vehicle volume.

YTL seraya is task to built 1700 EV charging station to meet growing number of EV in singapore. These new power demand for EV is new market to develop by YTL retailer at expense to petrol station.

Tomorrow will see flux of analyst report to call STRONG buy

Previously afraid of penalty if prolong time may now gone, Armanda speedy repair and recover production together and lump all together by bring early annual 2 week shutdown maintenance altogether. The net impact to yearly production volume is minimum now, only need pat extra repair cost which is well cover by gain in vessel sold

With such speedy repair and resume production, the impact on profit is minimum now and extra cost can well cover back by recent monetize disposal proceed from Claire

60% recovery in production volume is commendable

bought at 47.5sen

Its funny market response negative to Singapore to End 3,000% Power Price Spikes which is normal for gov to intervene market to cap extreme 3000% hike in profit as hike is not due to input cost gas, but due to imbalance during peak hour power demand. Without these recent 3000% hike, YTL already profit RM 800m, what will 3000% translate into profit ?

In short, Q1 YTL record RM800m is the lowest profit floor level based on its retail price 30senKWh and wholesale price at 27sen KWh. Q2 onward as long as wholesale price above 27senKWh, any surplus is top up to RM 800m floor level as YTL derive both dual profit from both retailer and wholesale

Remark: under normal circumstance, wholesale price should be lower than contract retail price which is main business model for independent retailer and generation company with high retail exposure than its own power capacity to capitalize on price gap different for profit. But, the situation now is reverse, wholesale price is far higher than retail price.

Don forget to court in jordan power plant contribution begin June 2023 onwards. Wessex water at least reverse back from loss making to profit, which is huge swing to YTL profit too. Other factos like sgd currency + 5% and pound +8%

dragon328
My estimation is based on YTL seraya retail price and wholesale price tag to arrive estimation. In Q1, YTL record RM 800m based on retail price 30sen kwh + wholesale 270Mwh (27sen kwh). Incoming Q2, retail price at 29senkwh + wholesale 450Mwh (45sen kwh). From july onward, gov intend to cap the extreme outlier frequency occasion 4500 Mwhr through circuit breaker to cooling off extreme daily rate to reduce UESP and average monthly wholesale rate, but as long as supply demand imbalance continue, the frequency trigger may cooling off, but wholesale rate should remain well above average 400MWh. Therefore, offering Q1 as YTL year to date lowest floor price RM 800m with upside exceed RM 1 billion if wholesale continue remain above its retail price

The factual to singapore energy market is demand exceed supply at peak hour. These condition will NO change only after few year later once new power plant start to supply more energy to market. In the meantime, Singapore energy demand will continue surging due to aggressive gov policy to encourage EV charging station to meet vertical growing in EV vehicle volume

Currency factor strengthen further in SGD will top up additional 5% net profit forward

The wholesale electricity price rose to S$503/MWh in May from S$325/MWh in April, and even higher by end of June later. These 3 month average wholesale rate in Q2 is almost 60% higher than Q1. Therefore, upcoming YTLP may report exceed RM 1 billion profit compared to Q1 RM 800m.

The following Q once CAP implement will only reduce fraction of wholesale power rate due to demand exceed supply, gov intervene is to to circuit break wholesale power rate from continue climbing up above 3500 MWhr through trigger multiple time cap level at 4500 MWhr (half hour oeak hour rate). Overall, wholesale power rate is well above 400 MWhr forward, above Q1 level, offerring YTL power at least RM 800m in next few quarter

dragon328

I view contrary, YTL seraya will record even higher profit forward. The latest cap by Singapore gov is specific target to extreme peak rate, 4500/MWh Capped at the ratio between the prevailing
TPC and Energy Price Cap of $4,500/MWh.

bought back ytlp at 1.20, resume dual exposure for both YTL and YTLP in portfolio

Currently, YTL seraya geneco selling only 28.9sen kwh for contract customer and selling 45sen kwh (450 MWh) in wholesale market rate.

Gov only cap TAC occasion for extreme outlier rate at 4500 MWh (only apply to half an hour for each occasion) to try to reduce 24 hour average wholesale market rate.

Currently, wholesale rate is 450 Mwh in may, already further spike up to 520 Mwh in month of May and likely in june as well

Singapore average wholesale electricity for 2023, wholesale price vs. retail contract selling price to customer by geneco)
January - 219.13 MWh (21.9 sen kwh, lower than retail contract selling price)
February - 222.53 MWh (22.2 sen kwh, lower than retail contract selling price)
March - 337.77 (33.7sen, higher than retail contract selling price)
April - 324.04 (32.4sen kwh, higher than retail contract selling price 28.9sen kwh)
May - est 450 (45sen kwh, higher than retail contract selling price 28.9sen kwh)
June - est 520 (52sen kwh, higher than retail contract selling price 28.9sen kwh

Remark: under Singapore free market, independent retailer or generation company with higher retailer demand than its own generation capacity are sourcing their energy suppy and shortfall power respectively, through wholesale market to profit the price difference between wholesale price and customer end user retail price. These business allow profit in time wholesale price is lower than retail price, and loss if verse versa.

Singapore average wholesale electricity for 2023, wholesale price vs. retail contract selling price to customer by geneco)
January - 219.13 MWh (21.9 sen kwh, lower than retail contract selling price)
February - 222.53 MWh (22.2 sen kwh, lower than retail contract selling price)
March - 337.77 (33.7sen, higher than retail contract selling price)
April - 324.04 (32.4sen kwh, higher than retail contract selling price 28.9sen kwh)
May - est 450 (45sen kwh, higher than retail contract selling price 28.9sen kwh)
June - est 520 (52sen kwh, higher than retail contract selling price 28.9sen kwh

Remark: under Singapore free market, independent retailer or generation company with higher retailer demand than its own generation capacity are sourcing their energy suppy and shortfall power respectively, through wholesale market to profit the price difference between wholesale price and customer end user retail price. These business allow profit in time wholesale price is lower than retail price, and loss if verse versa.

Boustead unlikely to sell boustead plantation stake. It will opt to sell boustead plantation landbank in several location like johor to YTL, sabah and sarawark land to wilmar or IOI , depending on price tag offer. Once sold, will declare special dividend to boustead to help repay its borrowing

Gotyou

Thanks for your detail figure particular on information related to power plant financial report and possible right call due to detail in restricted on retain earning which make jaks insufficient to subcribe 10% stake. I have tried many time to cut at 19sen, but ended cut all at 18.5sen to free up capital

Currently, YTL seraya geneco selling only 28.9sen kwh for contract customer and selling 45sen kwh (450 MWh) in wholesale market rate.

Gov only cap TAC occasion for extreme outlier rate at 4500 MWh (only apply to half an hour for each occasion) to try to reduce 24 hour average wholesale market rate.

Currently, wholesale rate is 450 Mwh in April, already further spike up to 520 Mwh in month of May and likely in june as well

Currently, YTL seraya geneco selling only 28.9sen kwh for contract customer and selling 45sen kwh (450 MWh) in wholesale market rate.

Gov only cap TAC occasion for extreme outlier rate at 4500 MWh (only apply to half an hour for each occasion) to try to reduce 24 hour average wholesale market rate.

Currently, wholesale rate is 450 Mwh in April, already further spike up to 520 Mwh in month of May and likely in june as well

Temporary Price Cap (TPC) mechanism is needed to act as a “circuit breaker”
to mitigate vicious cycle of sustained volatility and risk aversion in the SWEM and
restore the orderly functioning of the broader market. The TPC mechanism is intended to act as a short-term measure to stop the vicious cycle of volatility and risk aversion, and allow time to identify and address the
cause(s) of the extreme price volatility, by temporarily capping the USEP at a level
lower than the existing Energy Price Cap. When activated in times of extreme price
volatility, it will mitigate excessive risks to all SWEM participants including Gencos,
retailers and consumers buying from the SWEM, while still allowing the USEP to
fluctuate and reflect demand and supply conditions

a. All energy suppliers such as the Gencos will continue to submit energy
offer prices up to the Energy Price Cap of $4,500/MWh.
b. If the marginal energy offer price (i.e. the highest energy offer price
needed to meet system demand) is below the TPC, the USEP will
continue to be set based on the marginal energy offer price. If the
marginal energy offer price is at or above the TPC, the USEP will be
capped at the TPC

All in, YTL seraya and its retailer, Geneco, have very least affected as YTL locked retail selling price 28.9sen kwh ahead for 6 month - 2 year and any excess electricity sell to wholesale market for extra margin if wholesale market rate is higher than its locked its contract rate

TPC only affect in extreme cap level at 4500/MWh, a extreme PEAK hour, an outlier rate apply and cap at 4500/MWh or 4.5/KWh for only half an hour in each occasion, but these outlier, extreme high 4500/MWh now happening too many time in a day, have causing spike increase in final calculation for 24 hour average wholesale price.

The gov now trying is cap these extreme outlier time which fetch extreme high traffic rate at every half an hour occasion, limit these outlier in single day will decrease final 24 hour average wholesale price.

All in, YTL seraya and its retailer, Geneco, have very least affected as YTL locked retail selling price 28.9sen kwh ahead for 6 month - 2 year and any excess electricity sell to wholesale marketwith TPC only affect in extreme cap level at 4500/MWh, a extreme PEAK hour, an outlier rate apply and cap at 4500/MWh or 4.5/KWh for only half an hour in each occasion, but these outlier, extreme high 4500/MWh now happening too many time in a day, have causing spike increase in final calculation for 24 hour average wholesale price.

The gov now trying is cap these extreme outlier time which fetch extreme high traffic rate at every half an hour occasion, limit these outlier in single day will decrease final 24 hour average wholesale price.

Temporary Price Cap (TPC) mechanism is needed to act as a “circuit breaker”
to mitigate vicious cycle of sustained volatility and risk aversion in the SWEM and
restore the orderly functioning of the broader market. The TPC mechanism is intended to act as a short-term measure to stop the vicious cycle of volatility and risk aversion, and allow time to identify and address the
cause(s) of the extreme price volatility, by temporarily capping the USEP at a level
lower than the existing Energy Price Cap. When activated in times of extreme price
volatility, it will mitigate excessive risks to all SWEM participants including Gencos,
retailers and consumers buying from the SWEM, while still allowing the USEP to
fluctuate and reflect demand and supply conditions

a. All energy suppliers such as the Gencos will continue to submit energy
offer prices up to the Energy Price Cap of $4,500/MWh.
b. If the marginal energy offer price (i.e. the highest energy offer price
needed to meet system demand) is below the TPC, the USEP will
continue to be set based on the marginal energy offer price. If the
marginal energy offer price is at or above the TPC, the USEP will be
capped at the TPC

Dragon328

Not only independent sole retailer need to buy wholesale power to supply to its customer, some generations with retailer division also need to complete to get wholesale power as their own production cannot meet their retailer demand.

These is because despite almost all power generation have own retailer, but their power capacity mismatch their supplies comtract demand end user. These is their business model alike produce 1 MW but need to supply 2 MW by leverage up their retail market share through bidding in wholesale market. These generation company may only meet 50% capacity only to consumer by sources anothet 50% in wholesale market. It is good time in last few year when wholesale market is xheap due to oversupply, but, it get backfire now as wholesale market is tight and rate is higher than their contract with customer, offsetting their profit

YTL geneco retailer actually offer selling electricity rate at 28.9sen kwh is actually slightly lower than last year. But, geneco in actual fetch even higher margin than last year as fuel gas cost is much more lower, resulted margin expansion.

As more and more public to lock in contract rate, less and less excess power channel to pool wholesale market, supply become less and demand is increasing in peak hour have causing spike in wholesale spot power rate now

Currently, YTL seraya retailer unit, Geneco, offer retail electricity traffic rate is 28.9sen/kwh.

But, the wholesale electricity rate is 450/ Mwh or 45sen/kwh.

Therefore, those independent retailers or government agency SP retailer without own power generation need to buy expensive from wholesale market to supply electricity to its end user at hefty loss if didn't hedge their position significantly.

However, for power seraya with own genco market retailer, it locked in margin through own power generation to meet it contract end user.
The excess power power then only channel to wholesale market to fetch high but volatile spot wholesale price rate.

UBS holding increased YTL corp stake due to acquiring 5,867,100 shares in open market

Power seraya in short derive dual souce of income

1. Retail electricity tariffs through lock in contract 6 month to 2 year to end user. These part give assurance profit margin as long as LNG fuel price stay at current low level. If fuel gas cost tumbling further, the lock in contract with end user will give power seraya extra windfalll profit due to locked in contract

2. Aside selling electricity to ita own retailer, any excess electricity generated will channel to open pool market at average wholesale rate which fluctuate every half hour to get spot price

The skyrocket in wholesale power price only will affect those independent electricity retailers without own self power generation as a result of their inability to hedge against the price volatility on the spot market.

These retailers work by buying electricity on the wholesale market and selling it in "package deals" to households. The high volatile wholesale price will force those independent retailer in loss making position if insufficient hedge and possess none power generation.

Power seraya on the other hand is one stop from power generation, wholesale power to own retail seller to end user is hedging its profit naturally

Power seraya is one stop power producer from source fuel, fuel storage, power generation to electric retailer to sell contract electric to end consumer

Power seraya have own retail market its own generation to end consumer via retail contract range 6 month to 2 year. Therefore, its earning is locked ahead

Consumers can choose to buy electricity from the wholesale electricity market. In doing so, they will be paying for electricity at prices that vary every half-hour, depending on the demand and supply situation in the market. This is known as the Wholesale Electricity Price (WEP).

The WEP would typically rise due to reasons such as an increase in electricity demand and/or an outage of power generating units.

Consumers are advised to consider the WEP plan carefully given that the electricity rate that they pay is uncertain and volatile. In the recent months of 2023, wholesale electricity prices have remained elevated and volatile. Consumers who are buying electricity at wholesale prices could pay significantly more for their electricity, compared to those buying electricity via a retail contract with an electricity retailer or at the regulated tariff from SP Group (if applicable).

Currency factor is too good for YTLP as both Sgd strengthen by 4.5% in Q2 and pound strengthen by 8% in Q2 vs. Q1. The u.k business will revert back from loss to profit due to traffic hike by 9% + strengthen pound

According to the Singapore Energy Market Authority, the temporary price cap, the parameters of which will be in place until a review in the third quarter of 2025, will be tied to generation costs.

Under existing mechanisms, the energy price cap in place stood at S$4,500 (RM15,557) per megawatt-hour. The temporary price cap will see an average reduction in the Uniform Singapore Energy Price (USEP) by 3.6% to 8.1%, according to simulations published in the final determination on the mechanism that was released June 16.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/671809

The temporary price cap will see an average reduction in the Uniform Singapore Energy Price (USEP) by 3.6% to 8.1%.....These reduction will well cover back from just strengthening sgd currency by 4.5% Q1 RM 3.25 to Q2 RM 3.45

The temporary price cap will see an average reduction in the Uniform Singapore Energy Price (USEP) by 3.6% to 8.1%.....These reduction will well cover back from just strengthening sgd currency by 4.5% Q1 RM 3.25 to Q2 RM 3.45

YTLP only interest in Boustead plantation landbank in West Malaysia, particular balance estate locate in Johor or Pahang with aim to redevelop it into solar farm cum data center with advantage close proximate to Singapore target export energy market. Boustead majority land in actual locate in Sabah and Sarawak are actual interest by IOI which can complement its own estate for greater scale economic.

YTLP only interest in Boustead plantation landbank in West Malaysia, particular balance estate locate in Johor or Pahang with aim to redevelop it into solar farm cum data center with advantage close proximate to Singapore target export energy market. Boustead majority land in actual locate in Sabah and Sarawak are actual interest by IOI which can complement its own estate for greater scale economic.

Wait for MRT3 award!

bought back ecoworld at 79-79.5sen

sold back wce at 51sen

All YTLP solar farm and building Data center are awarded directly to YTL construction and source all building material from YTL cement and building material division

YTLP is assets owner with upfront acquire land cost and cover construction cost with banking borrowing. On the other hand, YTL construction and YTL cement and building material division under YTL corp are the builder and supplier to profit upfront in initial stage of construction and enjoy later once completed through subsidiary YTLP for recurring income.

YTLP is assets owner with upfront acquire land cost and cover construction cost with banking borrowing. On the other hand, YTL construction and YTL cement and building material division under YTL corp are the builder and supplier to profit upfront in initial stage of construction and enjoy later once completed through subsidiary YTLP for recurring income.

All YTLP solar farm and building Data center are awarded directly to YTL construction and source all building material from YTL cement and building material division

YTL growth driver is from its wholly own subsidiary YTL cement (low input coal cost + local cement selling price hike)+ YTL construction (multi billion orderbook from data center/solar farm/warehouse/UK prop development + upcoming award MRT3 and incoming HSR)

Market dislike uncertainty on Singapore energy to introduce new formula to calculate wholesale energy in July. but, for certainty profit margin will be reduce as it is based on fuel + cost formula. However, strength in Sgd dollar may mitigate the impact on margin

For YTLP, The important upcoming formula is based on natural gas and generation costs, eliminate non fuel margin (which highly subject to market manipulate that causing extreme energy volatility now). YTLP current extreme high margin of 20% now may reduce to reasonable 12-15% forward.

For YTLP, The important upcoming formula is based on natural gas and generation costs, eliminate non fuel margin (which highly subject to market manipulate that causing extreme energy volatility now). YTLP current extreme high margin of 20% now may reduce to reasonable 12-15% forward.

Upcoming MRT3 award and next HSR are the key catalyst for YTL

Market sentiment affected by Singapore Energy Market Authority will cap wholesale power prices from July 1 using a formula tied to natural gas and generation costs, may reduce YTLP profit margin forward.

Better focus on YTL for more diversified earning base with growing cement and Contruction, REITS as increasing earning driver forward while still retain exposure YTLP

Market sentiment affected by Singapore Energy Market Authority will cap wholesale power prices from July 1 using a formula tied to natural gas and generation costs, may reduce YTLP profit margin forward