The wholesale electricity price rose to S$503/MWh in May from S$325/MWh in April, and even higher by end of June later. These 3 month average wholesale rate in Q2 is almost 60% higher than Q1. Therefore, upcoming YTLP may report exceed RM 1 billion profit compared to Q1 RM 800m.

The following Q once CAP implement will only reduce fraction of wholesale power rate due to demand exceed supply, gov intervene is to to circuit break wholesale power rate from continue climbing up above 3500 MWhr through trigger multiple time cap level at 4500 MWhr (half hour oeak hour rate). Overall, wholesale power rate is well above 400 MWhr forward, above Q1 level, offerring YTL power at least RM 800m in next few quarter

dragon328

I view contrary, YTL seraya will record even higher profit forward. The latest cap by Singapore gov is specific target to extreme peak rate, 4500/MWh Capped at the ratio between the prevailing
TPC and Energy Price Cap of $4,500/MWh.

bought back ytlp at 1.20, resume dual exposure for both YTL and YTLP in portfolio

Currently, YTL seraya geneco selling only 28.9sen kwh for contract customer and selling 45sen kwh (450 MWh) in wholesale market rate.

Gov only cap TAC occasion for extreme outlier rate at 4500 MWh (only apply to half an hour for each occasion) to try to reduce 24 hour average wholesale market rate.

Currently, wholesale rate is 450 Mwh in may, already further spike up to 520 Mwh in month of May and likely in june as well

Singapore average wholesale electricity for 2023, wholesale price vs. retail contract selling price to customer by geneco)
January - 219.13 MWh (21.9 sen kwh, lower than retail contract selling price)
February - 222.53 MWh (22.2 sen kwh, lower than retail contract selling price)
March - 337.77 (33.7sen, higher than retail contract selling price)
April - 324.04 (32.4sen kwh, higher than retail contract selling price 28.9sen kwh)
May - est 450 (45sen kwh, higher than retail contract selling price 28.9sen kwh)
June - est 520 (52sen kwh, higher than retail contract selling price 28.9sen kwh

Remark: under Singapore free market, independent retailer or generation company with higher retailer demand than its own generation capacity are sourcing their energy suppy and shortfall power respectively, through wholesale market to profit the price difference between wholesale price and customer end user retail price. These business allow profit in time wholesale price is lower than retail price, and loss if verse versa.

Singapore average wholesale electricity for 2023, wholesale price vs. retail contract selling price to customer by geneco)
January - 219.13 MWh (21.9 sen kwh, lower than retail contract selling price)
February - 222.53 MWh (22.2 sen kwh, lower than retail contract selling price)
March - 337.77 (33.7sen, higher than retail contract selling price)
April - 324.04 (32.4sen kwh, higher than retail contract selling price 28.9sen kwh)
May - est 450 (45sen kwh, higher than retail contract selling price 28.9sen kwh)
June - est 520 (52sen kwh, higher than retail contract selling price 28.9sen kwh

Remark: under Singapore free market, independent retailer or generation company with higher retailer demand than its own generation capacity are sourcing their energy suppy and shortfall power respectively, through wholesale market to profit the price difference between wholesale price and customer end user retail price. These business allow profit in time wholesale price is lower than retail price, and loss if verse versa.

Boustead unlikely to sell boustead plantation stake. It will opt to sell boustead plantation landbank in several location like johor to YTL, sabah and sarawark land to wilmar or IOI , depending on price tag offer. Once sold, will declare special dividend to boustead to help repay its borrowing

Gotyou

Thanks for your detail figure particular on information related to power plant financial report and possible right call due to detail in restricted on retain earning which make jaks insufficient to subcribe 10% stake. I have tried many time to cut at 19sen, but ended cut all at 18.5sen to free up capital

Currently, YTL seraya geneco selling only 28.9sen kwh for contract customer and selling 45sen kwh (450 MWh) in wholesale market rate.

Gov only cap TAC occasion for extreme outlier rate at 4500 MWh (only apply to half an hour for each occasion) to try to reduce 24 hour average wholesale market rate.

Currently, wholesale rate is 450 Mwh in April, already further spike up to 520 Mwh in month of May and likely in june as well

Currently, YTL seraya geneco selling only 28.9sen kwh for contract customer and selling 45sen kwh (450 MWh) in wholesale market rate.

Gov only cap TAC occasion for extreme outlier rate at 4500 MWh (only apply to half an hour for each occasion) to try to reduce 24 hour average wholesale market rate.

Currently, wholesale rate is 450 Mwh in April, already further spike up to 520 Mwh in month of May and likely in june as well

Temporary Price Cap (TPC) mechanism is needed to act as a “circuit breaker”
to mitigate vicious cycle of sustained volatility and risk aversion in the SWEM and
restore the orderly functioning of the broader market. The TPC mechanism is intended to act as a short-term measure to stop the vicious cycle of volatility and risk aversion, and allow time to identify and address the
cause(s) of the extreme price volatility, by temporarily capping the USEP at a level
lower than the existing Energy Price Cap. When activated in times of extreme price
volatility, it will mitigate excessive risks to all SWEM participants including Gencos,
retailers and consumers buying from the SWEM, while still allowing the USEP to
fluctuate and reflect demand and supply conditions

a. All energy suppliers such as the Gencos will continue to submit energy
offer prices up to the Energy Price Cap of $4,500/MWh.
b. If the marginal energy offer price (i.e. the highest energy offer price
needed to meet system demand) is below the TPC, the USEP will
continue to be set based on the marginal energy offer price. If the
marginal energy offer price is at or above the TPC, the USEP will be
capped at the TPC

All in, YTL seraya and its retailer, Geneco, have very least affected as YTL locked retail selling price 28.9sen kwh ahead for 6 month - 2 year and any excess electricity sell to wholesale market for extra margin if wholesale market rate is higher than its locked its contract rate

TPC only affect in extreme cap level at 4500/MWh, a extreme PEAK hour, an outlier rate apply and cap at 4500/MWh or 4.5/KWh for only half an hour in each occasion, but these outlier, extreme high 4500/MWh now happening too many time in a day, have causing spike increase in final calculation for 24 hour average wholesale price.

The gov now trying is cap these extreme outlier time which fetch extreme high traffic rate at every half an hour occasion, limit these outlier in single day will decrease final 24 hour average wholesale price.

All in, YTL seraya and its retailer, Geneco, have very least affected as YTL locked retail selling price 28.9sen kwh ahead for 6 month - 2 year and any excess electricity sell to wholesale marketwith TPC only affect in extreme cap level at 4500/MWh, a extreme PEAK hour, an outlier rate apply and cap at 4500/MWh or 4.5/KWh for only half an hour in each occasion, but these outlier, extreme high 4500/MWh now happening too many time in a day, have causing spike increase in final calculation for 24 hour average wholesale price.

The gov now trying is cap these extreme outlier time which fetch extreme high traffic rate at every half an hour occasion, limit these outlier in single day will decrease final 24 hour average wholesale price.

Temporary Price Cap (TPC) mechanism is needed to act as a “circuit breaker”
to mitigate vicious cycle of sustained volatility and risk aversion in the SWEM and
restore the orderly functioning of the broader market. The TPC mechanism is intended to act as a short-term measure to stop the vicious cycle of volatility and risk aversion, and allow time to identify and address the
cause(s) of the extreme price volatility, by temporarily capping the USEP at a level
lower than the existing Energy Price Cap. When activated in times of extreme price
volatility, it will mitigate excessive risks to all SWEM participants including Gencos,
retailers and consumers buying from the SWEM, while still allowing the USEP to
fluctuate and reflect demand and supply conditions

a. All energy suppliers such as the Gencos will continue to submit energy
offer prices up to the Energy Price Cap of $4,500/MWh.
b. If the marginal energy offer price (i.e. the highest energy offer price
needed to meet system demand) is below the TPC, the USEP will
continue to be set based on the marginal energy offer price. If the
marginal energy offer price is at or above the TPC, the USEP will be
capped at the TPC

Dragon328

Not only independent sole retailer need to buy wholesale power to supply to its customer, some generations with retailer division also need to complete to get wholesale power as their own production cannot meet their retailer demand.

These is because despite almost all power generation have own retailer, but their power capacity mismatch their supplies comtract demand end user. These is their business model alike produce 1 MW but need to supply 2 MW by leverage up their retail market share through bidding in wholesale market. These generation company may only meet 50% capacity only to consumer by sources anothet 50% in wholesale market. It is good time in last few year when wholesale market is xheap due to oversupply, but, it get backfire now as wholesale market is tight and rate is higher than their contract with customer, offsetting their profit

YTL geneco retailer actually offer selling electricity rate at 28.9sen kwh is actually slightly lower than last year. But, geneco in actual fetch even higher margin than last year as fuel gas cost is much more lower, resulted margin expansion.

As more and more public to lock in contract rate, less and less excess power channel to pool wholesale market, supply become less and demand is increasing in peak hour have causing spike in wholesale spot power rate now

Currently, YTL seraya retailer unit, Geneco, offer retail electricity traffic rate is 28.9sen/kwh.

But, the wholesale electricity rate is 450/ Mwh or 45sen/kwh.

Therefore, those independent retailers or government agency SP retailer without own power generation need to buy expensive from wholesale market to supply electricity to its end user at hefty loss if didn't hedge their position significantly.

However, for power seraya with own genco market retailer, it locked in margin through own power generation to meet it contract end user.
The excess power power then only channel to wholesale market to fetch high but volatile spot wholesale price rate.

UBS holding increased YTL corp stake due to acquiring 5,867,100 shares in open market

Power seraya in short derive dual souce of income

1. Retail electricity tariffs through lock in contract 6 month to 2 year to end user. These part give assurance profit margin as long as LNG fuel price stay at current low level. If fuel gas cost tumbling further, the lock in contract with end user will give power seraya extra windfalll profit due to locked in contract

2. Aside selling electricity to ita own retailer, any excess electricity generated will channel to open pool market at average wholesale rate which fluctuate every half hour to get spot price

The skyrocket in wholesale power price only will affect those independent electricity retailers without own self power generation as a result of their inability to hedge against the price volatility on the spot market.

These retailers work by buying electricity on the wholesale market and selling it in "package deals" to households. The high volatile wholesale price will force those independent retailer in loss making position if insufficient hedge and possess none power generation.

Power seraya on the other hand is one stop from power generation, wholesale power to own retail seller to end user is hedging its profit naturally

Power seraya is one stop power producer from source fuel, fuel storage, power generation to electric retailer to sell contract electric to end consumer

Power seraya have own retail market its own generation to end consumer via retail contract range 6 month to 2 year. Therefore, its earning is locked ahead

Consumers can choose to buy electricity from the wholesale electricity market. In doing so, they will be paying for electricity at prices that vary every half-hour, depending on the demand and supply situation in the market. This is known as the Wholesale Electricity Price (WEP).

The WEP would typically rise due to reasons such as an increase in electricity demand and/or an outage of power generating units.

Consumers are advised to consider the WEP plan carefully given that the electricity rate that they pay is uncertain and volatile. In the recent months of 2023, wholesale electricity prices have remained elevated and volatile. Consumers who are buying electricity at wholesale prices could pay significantly more for their electricity, compared to those buying electricity via a retail contract with an electricity retailer or at the regulated tariff from SP Group (if applicable).

Currency factor is too good for YTLP as both Sgd strengthen by 4.5% in Q2 and pound strengthen by 8% in Q2 vs. Q1. The u.k business will revert back from loss to profit due to traffic hike by 9% + strengthen pound

According to the Singapore Energy Market Authority, the temporary price cap, the parameters of which will be in place until a review in the third quarter of 2025, will be tied to generation costs.

Under existing mechanisms, the energy price cap in place stood at S$4,500 (RM15,557) per megawatt-hour. The temporary price cap will see an average reduction in the Uniform Singapore Energy Price (USEP) by 3.6% to 8.1%, according to simulations published in the final determination on the mechanism that was released June 16.

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/671809

The temporary price cap will see an average reduction in the Uniform Singapore Energy Price (USEP) by 3.6% to 8.1%.....These reduction will well cover back from just strengthening sgd currency by 4.5% Q1 RM 3.25 to Q2 RM 3.45

The temporary price cap will see an average reduction in the Uniform Singapore Energy Price (USEP) by 3.6% to 8.1%.....These reduction will well cover back from just strengthening sgd currency by 4.5% Q1 RM 3.25 to Q2 RM 3.45

YTLP only interest in Boustead plantation landbank in West Malaysia, particular balance estate locate in Johor or Pahang with aim to redevelop it into solar farm cum data center with advantage close proximate to Singapore target export energy market. Boustead majority land in actual locate in Sabah and Sarawak are actual interest by IOI which can complement its own estate for greater scale economic.

YTLP only interest in Boustead plantation landbank in West Malaysia, particular balance estate locate in Johor or Pahang with aim to redevelop it into solar farm cum data center with advantage close proximate to Singapore target export energy market. Boustead majority land in actual locate in Sabah and Sarawak are actual interest by IOI which can complement its own estate for greater scale economic.

Wait for MRT3 award!

bought back ecoworld at 79-79.5sen

sold back wce at 51sen

All YTLP solar farm and building Data center are awarded directly to YTL construction and source all building material from YTL cement and building material division

YTLP is assets owner with upfront acquire land cost and cover construction cost with banking borrowing. On the other hand, YTL construction and YTL cement and building material division under YTL corp are the builder and supplier to profit upfront in initial stage of construction and enjoy later once completed through subsidiary YTLP for recurring income.

YTLP is assets owner with upfront acquire land cost and cover construction cost with banking borrowing. On the other hand, YTL construction and YTL cement and building material division under YTL corp are the builder and supplier to profit upfront in initial stage of construction and enjoy later once completed through subsidiary YTLP for recurring income.

All YTLP solar farm and building Data center are awarded directly to YTL construction and source all building material from YTL cement and building material division

YTL growth driver is from its wholly own subsidiary YTL cement (low input coal cost + local cement selling price hike)+ YTL construction (multi billion orderbook from data center/solar farm/warehouse/UK prop development + upcoming award MRT3 and incoming HSR)

Market dislike uncertainty on Singapore energy to introduce new formula to calculate wholesale energy in July. but, for certainty profit margin will be reduce as it is based on fuel + cost formula. However, strength in Sgd dollar may mitigate the impact on margin

For YTLP, The important upcoming formula is based on natural gas and generation costs, eliminate non fuel margin (which highly subject to market manipulate that causing extreme energy volatility now). YTLP current extreme high margin of 20% now may reduce to reasonable 12-15% forward.

For YTLP, The important upcoming formula is based on natural gas and generation costs, eliminate non fuel margin (which highly subject to market manipulate that causing extreme energy volatility now). YTLP current extreme high margin of 20% now may reduce to reasonable 12-15% forward.

Upcoming MRT3 award and next HSR are the key catalyst for YTL

Market sentiment affected by Singapore Energy Market Authority will cap wholesale power prices from July 1 using a formula tied to natural gas and generation costs, may reduce YTLP profit margin forward.

Better focus on YTL for more diversified earning base with growing cement and Contruction, REITS as increasing earning driver forward while still retain exposure YTLP

Market sentiment affected by Singapore Energy Market Authority will cap wholesale power prices from July 1 using a formula tied to natural gas and generation costs, may reduce YTLP profit margin forward

Lets breakout RM 1.00

Another alternative is wait if YTL corp in future decided to relist again, but chance are very slim as YTL more willing to consolidate rather than dilute its money making subsidiary

Lam LH
YTL privatise YTL land, YTL cement and YTL e solution, although trigger delist after hit threshold 90% acceptance, but still some didn't accept offer resulted YTL haven't 100% control till now, but reach 98-99% stake with minorities left over 1-2% continues holding unlisted share now.

As offer have lapse, minorities cannot do anything now unless call up management to do private arrangements.

However, minorities still able to enjoy YTL cement, YTL land or YTL e solution if these unlisted compang declare dividend to YTL corp

Ytl communication is 60% own by ytlp, the other 40% own by bumi partner.

Yes continues loss partly due to discontinue 1bestarnetnet by Muhyiddin, causing big impairment in asset value.

With 5g, equal level cost structure across all telecos now, at least allow yes implement fair marketing strategy to win some market share next year onward

dragon328
i think most of these property investment are park under SGX StarhillREITS and bursa YTLHosp to enjoy low tax rate. Other valuable are its prime landbank in Sentul (YTL land), Japan and UK (YTLP)

YTL own YTL cement and 78% Mcement will benefited most in current tumbling coal price. Although coal is USD imported, but price tumbling is far more than strength USD cost. Coal form about 25-30% in cement production, lower coal price and elevated cement selling price locally will give profit expansion in next Q following due to time lag factor in coal price adjustment in its feedstock inventory.

Beside, YTL cement in langkawi is hub to export cement to regional market, Mcement also export cement to Singapore, enjoying currency factor too.

I cannot figure any other stock can benefited most direct from strength in USD (45% Jordan power, 20% Jawa power, YTL cement export market), Pound (Wessex water, UK property development), SGD (Power seraya + geneco + YTL land)

We are still in month of June, and currency strength in USD, Pound and SGD continue breaking record high, it will translate into non-operation profit expansion by at least 5%more in next Q due to currency factor alone

Needless to worry at all. You are invested in re-rating stock, with EPS growth forward + dividend, NOT the speculative stock.

YTLP started to move up after Malaysia lifted energy to Singapore policy and momentum accelerated. after record massive EPS growth.

YTL started to move up strongly follow YTLP and leap up after Humeind report massive improvement in cement operation, spill over to its subsidiary Mcement and YTL go up in tandem. Momentum up again after HSR news and reaffirm after record EPS growth.

Therefore, as long as all above catalyst factor remain, share price will sustain elevated and awaiting for next Q result to reinstate its capability on earning growth, declare higher dividend for re-rating to continue upward forward.

Don need worry about selldown as coming Q will declare higher dividend and anytime soon for MRT3 official award

The US$2.1 billion project is financed via 25:75 debt to equity, where US$1.3 billion of credit is provided by a syndicate of Chinese banks for a tenure of 15 years. Such short tenure of financing 15 year vs. 30 year power purchase agreement + 10 year extension offer ample of opportunity for YTL to opt for refinancing, allowing more cash payout in future