30-40% price drop? Q1 Power seraya record RM 800m profit, what will coming Q2 Power seraya profit? Just look at the factual figure now on average Wholesale Electricity Prices ($/MWh), Q2 is estimate to record massive 75% increment if compared to Q1.

2023 Average Wholesale Electricity Prices ($/MWh)

1. January 219.13
2. February 222.53
3. March 337.77

4. April 324.04
5. May 488.71
6. June 539.39 ( latest 7 day average)

YTL already partner CRRC in MRT3 rail system. This systems turnkey package, which includes signalling,
electric train and depot equipment, power supply and communication systems, is expected to be worth RM7bn-10bn. These MRT3 system work is on top of YTL lowest bid in MRT3 CMC302 civil work package worth RM 10.8 billion

YTL to partner CRRC to bid upcoming HSR. CRRC is the world's largest supplier of rail transit equipment with the most complete product lines and leading technologies. Its main businesses cover the R&D, design, manufacture, repair, sale, lease and technical services for rolling stock, urban rail transit vehicles, engineering machinery, all types of electrical equipment, electronic equipment and parts, electric products and environmental protection equipment, as well as consulting services, industrial investment and management, asset management, and import and export.

https://www.msn.com/en-my/money/topstories/consortiums-jvs-to-undertake-kl-singapore-hsr-taking-shape/ar-AA1beNxl#:~:text=Berjaya%20Group%20is%20understood%20to%20have%20had%20high-level,comment%20had%20not%20been%20answered%20at%20press%20time.

MyHSR Corp appoints Fauzi Abdul Rahman as chairman

KUALA LUMPUR: MyHSR Corp Sdn Bhd (MyHSR Corp) has appointed Datuk Seri Fauzi Abdul Rahman as non-executive chairman effective June 22, 2023.

In a statement today, the company said Fauzi served on the board of Malaysia Rail Link Sdn Bhd (MRL) between 2018 and 2021 and is well-versed in the development and challenges within the industry.

MyHSR Corp chief executive officer Datuk Mohd Nur Ismal Mohamed Kamal said Fauzi’s expertise and experience will steer MyHSR Corp to realise the high-speed rail (HSR) project.

"As we embark on this new chapter for the project, his long history of astute leadership and unwavering commitment will strengthen our resolve in bringing the project to fruition for the benefit of the country and the people,” he said in the statement.

The statement said Fauzi held senior positions in various ministries and was Deputy Minister in the Prime Minister’s department between 1997 and 1999. He was Kuantan’s member of parliament (MP) between 1990 and 1999 and Indera Mahkota MP between 2013 and 2018.

In addition, Fauzi chairs the board of two private companies.

MyHSR Corp is a company incorporated in 2015 and is wholly owned by Minister of Finance (Incorporated). It is under the supervision of the Transport Ministry. The company is responsible for developing and implementing the HSR project. - Bernama
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/06/26/myhsr-corp-appoints-fauzi-abdul-rahman-as-chairman

YTL seraya (2006MW ) + acquire Hyflux's Tuaspring power (396MW) for $ 270m, after get discount price 22%

Tuaspring's combined cycle power station complements the group's existing power generation assets in Singapore, creating significant synergies across our portfolio of utility businesses.

YTL acquire Tuaspring plant last year is one of the most technologically advanced assets on Singapore's power generation grid.

Following the purchase, YTL PowerSeraya now own 2402MW, is second largest power generation companies by registered capacity after Senoko Energy's 2807MW.

The newer technology now is direct use solar-powered device that produces hydrogen fuel directly from moisture in the air. Solar generate power, and use these power electric to produce hydrogen from water or moisture in the air, so that power generate can directly store as hydrogen fuel in storage tank. These hydrogen fuel storage tank can use as generator electricity at night or when sunlight insufficient or use it as backup power to increase power at peak hour

While hydrogen, solar, and wind energy are all renewable sources, they differ in their applications and potential for future growth. As an energy carrier, hydrogen has the advantage of being easily stored and transported, which is beneficial for large-scale industrial applications and long-distance energy transportation. Green hydrogen production also has the potential to use excess electricity generated by solar and wind power, making it a complementary technology for these renewable sources.

On the other hand, solar and wind energy are direct electricity producers and are more suitable for decentralized and residential applications. Solar energy is especially attractive for regions with abundant sunlight, while wind energy is better suited for areas with consistent wind patterns.

EU is banning CPO due deforestation, even forest tree is just replace with planted palm oil tree.

On contrary, EU give carbon credit if land is use for solar farm and your manufacture industry if use green energy can score high ESG and enjoy carbon tax credit when goods export to EU.

Globally, most countries, EU, China, US, all recognized solar power is best green energy and is demanding higher carbon tax to impose on goods without use green in manufacturing, storage battery power, Data center etc. Already first impact now is trend booming Green data center, Green EV charging station to power up EV

YTLP is bid boustead plantation landbank will include large tract land in Sabah and Sarawak. If YTL turn it all to solar power farm, it could in line with Sarawak state gov intention to supply hydro power to Singapore via undersea cable. Both solar power and hydro power are green energy are great demand for Singapore to meet its zero carbon emission and avoid carbon tax

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/01/30/sarawak-set-to-export-hydropower-to-singapore

From YTLP report, kulai 500 MW solar power is aim to power up 500 MW green Data center, a high value added to derive high profit margin from supplying power and water to capital intensive Green data center for long term income.

dragon328
Such small impact if exit will be more than cover by strengthen sgd keep hitting record RM 3.47, q to q strength by 5% now

Indonesia trials first high-speed rail in boost to Jokowi legacy, It is now Anwar turn built HSR for his legacy, a successful launch will pave way for him to outperfrom previous PM, Mah, Muy, Ism

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/06/23/indonesia-trials-first-high-speed-rail-in-boost-to-jokowi-legacy

Today, USD RM 4.65, on track to break previous record high at RM 4.75, just 10 sen closer to record breaking

( USD base profit from 20% jawa power, 97% YTL cement Langkawi export hub and 45% Jordan power plant)

Today, pound breaking another record RM 5.94 !!!

Today, SGD breaking another record RM 3.47 !!!

Yup, HSR could spill over to revival of Bandar Malaysia

ERL - was awarded the concession on August 25 1997 to finance, design, construct, operate and maintain both rail services for 30 years.

ERL secure further extension 30 year in exchange for review the rail fare on three occasions under intial concession agreement

After MRT3, next will be HSR. As HSR is fully private funded, YTL again have strongest financial strength. YTL ERL express train concession business model is best model to applied on HSR. For information YTL ERL is commercial viable and profiting business model under 30 year concession and extend another later for another 30 year. For coming HSR, the initial concession may be longer, 50 year or 60 year and can be extended by another period later

i only can said odds is high base on face table, under table nobody known. But if gov really wish to cut cost, YTL is best and fulfil all criteria which give gov good credit and show to public to vote and win in upcoming state election,.

YTL able to bid for lowest is simply due to its strong in house cement production (command 60% Malaysia market share) and in house building material supply chain (operate Malaysia largest Quarry in Batu Tiga). YTL through control major construction building material cost have enable it to bid for lowest.

Gov wish to cut cost by RM 5 billion on MRT3 from RM 50 billion to RM 45 billion. For CMC302 package alone , YTL clearly meet gov wish to cut cost by RM 1 billion or 20% of targeted cut cost RM 5 billion from overall total cost

Despite IJM involvements in Mrt and mrt2, YTL have vast experienced in train infrastructure and is currently building Gemas double track train and previously built and operate EDL link KL airport and is earlier winner HSR.

Open tender should be based on lowest bidder as all jobs scope in tender are same applies to all bidder.

Of course, cannot rule out if Unity government face political interference later, chose other than lowest bidder as winner.

But, if fair and transparent apply to administration, it should pick lowest bidder as winner, gov with tight budget at least can save RM 1 billion cost to pick YTL RM 10.8 billlion vs. second lowest IjM RM 11. 8 billion

https://www.nst.com.my/business/2023/04/897175/mrt3-project-cost-review-ready-june

In summary, YTL seraya plan to be one stop energy solution, capitalize full cycle in both fuel and non fuel power generation to transform captured biogenic CO2 and green hydrogen produced from renewable electricity into green e-methanol and making this low carbon fuel commercially accessible for the maritime industry.

YTL PowerSeraya also actively conduct feasibility to set up first green e-methanol plant which converts captured biogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) into green e-methanol, a low carbon fuel, that could enable a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The pilot plant will be set up in Singapore with a minimum capacity of 50,000 tons per annum (TPA), and will be the first of its kind in Southeast Asia.

YTL PowerSeraya, Green data center brand - YTL Data Center Holdings, is actively conduct feasibility of using clean hydrogen to power the data centre ecosystem in Singapore. Hydrogen fuel is highly viable if compared to solar power which require large tract of land. Hydrogen fuel is highly suitable green energy to power up Singapore base green data center, reduce carbon tax,

YTL PowerSeraya EV charging brand – ChargEco, have won a tender from the Land Transport Authority (LTA) to build charging points at Housing & Development Board (HDB) carparks in the Central and East regions of Singapore. Chargo also expand to deliver charging services at private premises, such as condominiums, shopping malls, commercial buildings and industrial parks

YTL PowerSeraya retail brand – Geneco, is Singapore No. 1 residential electricity retailer under contract range 6 to 2year lock in electricity traffic to ensure steady profit margin

In June 2022, The government of Singapore proposed laws to regulate electric vehicle charging in Singapore. Under this proposal, all new buildings with carparks must install electric vehicle charging points in at least 1 percent of their total car and motorcycle parking space,

Singapore is leading the EV charging infrastructure with 1,800 public charging outlets accessible across the country and plans to add 60,000 charging sites by 2030.

Singapore government promotes vehicle manufacturers for vehicle electrification by announcing that new electric vehicles and taxis registered between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2023 would receive a 45% rebate off the additional registration fees (ARF) tax. Such incentive helps to enhance the sale of electric vehicles across the country during the forecast period.

YTL wholly own YTL cement (97% stake) is actually far bigger than Mcement. YTL through YTL cement control 78% in Mcement and hold additional unlisted Mcement RCPS which can be converted to Mcement anytime to boots up its stake to 85%, YTL cement operation is larger than Mcement and and record much higher profit than Mcement contribution alone

YTL cement aside through Mcement involve in cement manufacture, YTL cement also operate own upstream construction material like sand, limestone, gravel, concrete, precast and operate Malaysia largest Quarry in Batu Tiga, provide in house raw material for cement production and supply such building material for external construction and property development.

YTL also partner CRCC to bid MRT3 system work package worth RM 7 - RM 10 billion and also partner to bid HSR next tender for HSR

MRT3 tender result already release, YTL corp biding for CMC302 is the lowest RM 10.8 billion, IJM is second lowest at RM 11.8 billion. Gov manage to save at least RM 1 billion if award according to tender result.

be patient, just wait for MRT3 award soon, likely before state election to boost up feel good factors

cut at 60sen

sold back at 82.5sen

These year 2023, BYD surpass tesla as top seller EV car in Singapore. Each EV consume 40 kWh per charging, average 4 time a month, is equivalent to about 50-60% electric consumption for Singapore average monthly household.

Singapore energy demand will continue surging due to aggressive gov policy to encourage EV charging station to meet vertical growing in EV vehicle volume.

YTL seraya is task to built 1700 EV charging station to meet growing number of EV in singapore. These new power demand for EV is new market to develop by YTL retailer at expense to petrol station.

Tomorrow will see flux of analyst report to call STRONG buy

Previously afraid of penalty if prolong time may now gone, Armanda speedy repair and recover production together and lump all together by bring early annual 2 week shutdown maintenance altogether. The net impact to yearly production volume is minimum now, only need pat extra repair cost which is well cover by gain in vessel sold

With such speedy repair and resume production, the impact on profit is minimum now and extra cost can well cover back by recent monetize disposal proceed from Claire

60% recovery in production volume is commendable

bought at 47.5sen

Its funny market response negative to Singapore to End 3,000% Power Price Spikes which is normal for gov to intervene market to cap extreme 3000% hike in profit as hike is not due to input cost gas, but due to imbalance during peak hour power demand. Without these recent 3000% hike, YTL already profit RM 800m, what will 3000% translate into profit ?

In short, Q1 YTL record RM800m is the lowest profit floor level based on its retail price 30senKWh and wholesale price at 27sen KWh. Q2 onward as long as wholesale price above 27senKWh, any surplus is top up to RM 800m floor level as YTL derive both dual profit from both retailer and wholesale

Remark: under normal circumstance, wholesale price should be lower than contract retail price which is main business model for independent retailer and generation company with high retail exposure than its own power capacity to capitalize on price gap different for profit. But, the situation now is reverse, wholesale price is far higher than retail price.

Don forget to court in jordan power plant contribution begin June 2023 onwards. Wessex water at least reverse back from loss making to profit, which is huge swing to YTL profit too. Other factos like sgd currency + 5% and pound +8%

dragon328
My estimation is based on YTL seraya retail price and wholesale price tag to arrive estimation. In Q1, YTL record RM 800m based on retail price 30sen kwh + wholesale 270Mwh (27sen kwh). Incoming Q2, retail price at 29senkwh + wholesale 450Mwh (45sen kwh). From july onward, gov intend to cap the extreme outlier frequency occasion 4500 Mwhr through circuit breaker to cooling off extreme daily rate to reduce UESP and average monthly wholesale rate, but as long as supply demand imbalance continue, the frequency trigger may cooling off, but wholesale rate should remain well above average 400MWh. Therefore, offering Q1 as YTL year to date lowest floor price RM 800m with upside exceed RM 1 billion if wholesale continue remain above its retail price

The factual to singapore energy market is demand exceed supply at peak hour. These condition will NO change only after few year later once new power plant start to supply more energy to market. In the meantime, Singapore energy demand will continue surging due to aggressive gov policy to encourage EV charging station to meet vertical growing in EV vehicle volume

Currency factor strengthen further in SGD will top up additional 5% net profit forward