The factual is 70% power generated is sold as contract 6 month-2 year, and 90% of contract is hedge.
The balance 30% power generated is sold to wholesale market and spot vesting contract.

The problem now is not because of sudden surge is gas price input cost, when already hedge, but is tumbling in wholesale energy and vesting sport energy price compare to contract price.

The actual impact on wholesale energy price will be more apparent in coming Q result, in which is wholesale price is skyrocket in April - 324 MWh, May - 492 MWH, June - 305 MWH, Power seraya is expect to reap billion of profit. But, what about following Q result when wholesale price half at 167 Mwh in July start to kick in and if persist for following month later? Profit margin will significantly decrease back to normalize level will prove in following Q result release in Nov 2023

Although YTLP currently have 70% contract rate range 6month - 2year and balance 30% on spot wholesale rate, But, as current wholesale rate 167Mwh is far below YTLP contract rate about 280-290Mwh, it will prompt many independent retail to offer much lower rate to win over retail market share. Many contract customer will gradually swap to much lower independent retail after theor expire contract.

These situation will continue persist as long as wholesale rate is significantly lower than contract rate, resulted lower profit margin forward. As, singapore intend to import more power from oversea, it will further press down on wholesale energy rate in future. Singapore will never tolerate current power generator to reap such extraordinary profit margin > 25% in future. The more reasonable profit margin for power generator should be about 10%, a acceptable profit margin for highly regulated power industries

deleum is cash rich oil and gas company, 60% of current market price is backed by net cash. Dividend payout is 50%, therefore, Deleum is good stock holding for stream of income with increasing trend based on increasing eps growth with increasing orderbook now at RM 560m

I also hold another stock Uzma, but with increasing borrowing/nil dividend due need to fund LSS4 and initial capex for all time high RM 2.9 billion orderbook, Uzma earning growth will be at higher rate forward.

Therefore, for oil and gas exposure, i had balance between high yield deleum and high growth Uzma.

Some may said YTLP or YTL is better, and quote MSC can be YTLP 2. but, YTLP Singapore hike electricity price is unsustainable as despite upcoming Q result, Singapore power will boots up further profit to YTLP due to hike in wholesale electricity price
April - 324 MWh
May - 492 MWH
June - 305 MWH

But, since begin July after Singapore introduce cap price, the wholesale electricity price had tumbling to half to only 167.5 Mwh, and these trend lower wholesale price is still remain in Aug 2023

https://www.ema.gov.sg/cmsmedia/Publications_and_Statistics/Statistics/35RSU.pdf

https://www.nems.emcsg.com/nems-prices

Therefore, comparing with unsustainable YTLP Singapore profit margin. MSC have high promising future and sustain elevated tin price from increasing demand EV/ solar/ semicon. 5g etc and future saving cost saving from decommissioning Butterworth plant and redevelopment Proft

Caution, depsite upcoming Q result, singapore power will boots up further profit to YTLP due to hike in wholesale electricity price
April - 324 MWh
May - 492 MWH
June - 305 MWH

But, since begin July after Singapore introduce cap price, the wholesale electricity price had tumbling to half to only 167.5 Mwh, and these trend lower wholesale price is still remain in Aug 2023

https://www.ema.gov.sg/cmsmedia/Publications_and_Statistics/Statistics/35RSU.pdf

https://www.nems.emcsg.com/nems-prices

Caution, depsite upcoming Q result, singapore power will boots up further profit to YTLP due to hike in wholesale electricity price
April - 324 MWh
May - 492 MWH
June - 305 MWH

But, since begin July after Singapore introduce cap price, the wholesale electricity price had tumbling to half to only 167.5 Mwh, and these trend lower wholesale price is still remain in Aug 2023

https://www.ema.gov.sg/cmsmedia/Publications_and_Statistics/Statistics/35RSU.pdf

https://www.nems.emcsg.com/nems-prices

https://www.thesundaily.my/business/straits-trading-malaysia-smelting-unveil-straits-city-in-butterworth-BB9210416

Unlocking value of Butterworth site. A redevelopment of the Butterworth
smelting plant site is already planned to unlock the land value once the
smelting operations is fully relocated to Pulau Indah. The smelting facility is
sitting on 13.9 acres of land while the parent company Straits Trading
Company (STC) owns the adjacent piece of land spanning 26.2 acres. The
combined land will be redeveloped into a mixed residential and commercial
property project and a master plan has been approved with STC which is in
property development to head the development. Meanwhile, development
works are being carried out on the 26.2 acre STC land currently while
MSC’s 13.9 acre land, which with book value of RM78.7m, will only see
work commencing next years later after the smelting operations cease

Next year, the old Butterworth plant will be decommissioning to pave way for property development. As much as 30% cost saving from smelting segment will boost up MSC profit margin higher

Now already enter month Aug, tin price remain sustainable above USD 27k, average tin price for Q3 should around USD 27.5-28k, exchange rate 4.58, about 10% higher than Q2.

Just wait for next Q3 result, MSC should deliver EPS > 11sen

MSC mining activities use its own 5MW hydropower + MSC smelting plant use solar power, both comply green energy metal

MSC should trade at least half if no in par with press metal valuation. MSC current valaution < 7x is too far low if compared to pmetal

If you wan to court trade payable in balance sheet, you must also include much larger trade receivable, trade prepayment and big chuck of inventories.

Current Q3 average selling price is 10% higher than Q1 and Q2. These increment 10% selling price will give 10% increase revenue, and these 10% revenue is pure profit, resulting gross profit margin expansion from 15% to 25%

Increase cash to RM 210m
Decrease borrowing to RM 305m

In less than 1 year forward, MSC will turn into NET CASH position

added more at 77.5-78sen

to breakout 80sen soon

bought back uzma at 75sen

bought back msc at 2.27-2.29

added more pohkong at 86-86.5sen

Locked quick contra profit at 76-76.5sen

bought uzma at 73-74.5sen

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fitch-cuts-us-governments-aaa-215239912.html

Fitch downgraded the United States to AA+ from AAA, citing fiscal deterioration over the next three years and repeated down-the-wire debt ceiling negotiations that threaten the government’s ability to pay its bills


Dollar index will tumbling, gold will shine soon

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fitch-cuts-us-governments-aaa-215239912.html

Fitch downgraded the United States to AA+ from AAA, citing fiscal deterioration over the next three years and repeated down-the-wire debt ceiling negotiations that threaten the government’s ability to pay its bills


Dollar index will tumbling, gold will shine soon

dollar index will tumbling, gold price will shine soon

Fitch downgraded the United States to AA+ from AAA, citing fiscal deterioration over the next three years and repeated down-the-wire debt ceiling negotiations that threaten the government’s ability to pay its bills

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/08/02/traders-brace-for-wave-of-treasury-bond-sales

A lot of new debt issuance coming from US to meet its deficit budget, dollar index will decresing, gold price will boost up soon,

bought deleum at 90sen

sold at 1.01

locked profit first at 2.38-2.41

The real impact will gradually reflect in global supplier sequence. Currently inventory still available to meet demand, but, storage level will gradually vacant

Gold price will surpass USD 20,000 soon as Fed and major central banks are at tail end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle amid easing inflationary pressures

Gold price will surpass USD 20,000 soon as Fed and major central banks are at tail end of the current monetary policy tightening cycle amid easing inflationary pressures

Much higher final dividend 4.38sen declared

many super rushing last min buyin

:D)

If oversea institutional fund look at MSc valaution if compared to other country tin stock, they will chase these embeded gem to trade in line with global tin stocks, afterall, market cannot ignore too long that MSC is world third largest tin exporter

Upcoming usage in tin is at explosion rate, but production is cap.

1. EV is to replace billion petrol vehicle.
2. Charging station is to replace million petrol station
3. Solar power plant is to replace thousand fuel power plant

Upcoming BRICS meeting will intensify de dollarization and tail end rate hike will give boost up to GOLD price

MSC should trade valuation in line with Pmetal. Many analyst give very high premium to Pmetal due to its source energy from cheap hydro power and tag high score for ESG for its green product

But, many unknown, MSC is actual even greener than Pmetal as MSC use its own hydropower generation 5MW for mining activities and use solar power at its smelting plant

Malaysia gov ambition to develop 4GW solar power, Singapore ambition to import 4GW, Western like EU, US all keen to develop solar power plant

Tin is a crucial part of solar power infrastructure. Solar panels are formed of many individual solar cells, connected by “solar ribbon”. This ribbon is a copper wire, coated in a thin layer of tin solder. The ribbon carries the charge to the edge of the panel, where it feeds into junction boxes. This electrical system also requires solder connections – as does the grid infrastructure. In line with solar module production, tin use in the industry has been rapid, growing more than six-fold in the past decade.

My portfolio already has enough MSC after yesterday added third batch at 2.20-2.22. It is now biggest stake in portfolio now, follow by series of gold stocks and REITS

Technically, MSC chart is call Flash formation breakout

MSC chart is bullish

bought back pohkong at 86sen

added more YXP at 27.5sen

Added more tomei at 1.09

added more YTLREITS at 97sen

bought at 28.5sen

added more MSC at 2.20-2.22