Many like to use own calculations to project ahead company future windfall profit. You can grab much alike calculation in previous glove sector, steel sector and more recent palm sector and set very high target price based on its own projected eps.

These kind of projection now is happening in oil sector. You all can retropective look back what had happen now to these share performances.

Therefore, beware of various calculation formula to project future profit

Commodity price is very sensitive to global affair, gov policy, genpolitical tension etc.

However, these kind of man make crisis tend to be short term nature as politicians will under pressure and force them to change stand to ease off inflation rate.

If you have follow TA closely, you all should know hengyuan is on downtrend, investor should have cut last week alrdy instead of keep FA and promote its projected profit continuously. It will only end up entrap more and more follower thinking of to win big on hengyuan, resulting many of their follower suffer multiple time loss

Technically, hengyuam share is in downtrend mode. Short term, FA no applicable, need to follow TA as indicator already clearly indicate is downtrend chart is about to begin now.

To reverse trend, crude oil or crack spread are no good guideline now, Hengyuan need to post black and white, clear increasing EPS to meet market estimation and verify your projection on profit is correct.

Since all data available including past crack spread, historical crude oil etc, kindly use these restropective result to verfying your calculation formula for next prospective result, if you able to arrive same figure for past result, then your formula calculation is tested worth, otherwise, worthless

Many try to do prospective next Q profit for hengyuan. Can you use same formula calculation to arrive same figure as posted by hengyuan Q1 profit RM 47m to verifying?

Crack spread on correction mode, peak level already over, hengyuan technically weak, nope for rebound until next Q to proof it profit. Cut exposure now

Unlikely get excess as right share already fully underwrite by investment bank, it will be 100% fully subscribe.

What is use of long term contract signed between hengyuan and shell malaysia, which just renew last year for another 5 year until 2026?

Almost of hengyuan refine are to supply to shell malaysia. It is mean for steady supply contract in which hengyuan only need to focus hedge its raw crude cost in meet expected refine price payable by shell malaysia, which in turn shell malaysia need to hedge it input refine cost based on mogas singapore to meet its selling retail price to end users.

Hengyuan need some refine margin swap as it currently export unqualified non euro5 dissel to oversea to swap by import qualify euro5 from oversea, to supply to shell malaysia

Refinary swap margin ia for hengyuan to buy dissel euro5 form oversea presumbly from its parent china hengyuan, to supply to Msia shell.

Refinary margin swap is to based on singapore mogas in which shell malaysia payable to hengyuan against input cost source from china refinary.


Hengyuan is act as trader

Management alrdy indicate it euro5 will complete by Q2. So, juat wait for next Q update.

Anyhow, as so long there is no too widly volatility like what happen in fed, hengyuan hedging on crude oil will not oncur too big loss again like in Q1, crude oil volatile from Q42021 USD 70+ to Q1 2022 USD 110+

Forward looking is positive impact on crack spread which increase almost triple from USD 12 to USD 33

It is untrue to assume..... This bcos msia petrol price pricing mechanism formula already has a natural hedge for crude oil volatility mah....

One of the key variables factor in Malaysia automated price mechanism formula ia crack spread, calculated based in Sigapore mogas market, average based on weekly crack spread data.

Refinary margin swap is because hengyuan only produce some euro5 dissel to meet shell demand. Hengyuan source part of dissel end product from other refiner.

By end Q2, hengyuan dissel plant should have capacity to product all euro5 dissel to meet Malaysia policy

hengyuan only need hedging on its input crude oil derivative as it need few week shipment time from various crude source supply. Hengyuan only source 50% crude from local Petronas, another 50% are mainly source from Russian, Arab and Asia. Hengyuan need to protect its profit margin from erode due to volatility crude oil cost.

hengyuan didn't need to hedge its refine end product as it have long term supply taker from Msia Shell until 2026. Most if no all of its refine end product are solely supply to Shell Malaysia.

Therefore, hengyuan hedging loss/gain mainly due to volatility in crude oil. If refine end product price increase as indicate by crack spread, hengyuan will only profit higher in tandem with higher crack spread

Malaysia Shell is sole taker for hengyuan refine product. It is Shell Malaysia to hedge refine product volatility in Singapore mogas platts market.

Hengyuan hedging mainly focus on its input crude oil cost to protect its refine end product rathet than vice versa

Hope hengyuan can seek compensation from Shell in regard to its own policy to abandon Russian oil. Afterall, sanction is not endorse by world organization.

Shell on 3 Mar declare termination tie to use any Russian oil, but Hengyuan may already order Russian crude ahead. Since Hengyuan have 5 year supply contract with Shell, it need to write down these crude and source from other crude supplier to meet 17% shortfall. The 17% crude source from Russian can be already in store tank or on shipment, Hengyuan need to sell these crude oil outright later without refine it to process fuel/gasoline/diesel.

These is one off case, its will NO repeat in next Q.

Remark: from hengyuan last year annual report, it source about 17% crude from Russian

The inventory loss incur in Q1 result is due to hengyuan source 17% crude oil from Russian. Hengyuan have last year renew 5 year extension to supply refine product to local Shell station. Shell have opt to cut tie to use any crude or refine produce source from Russian, these have resulted hengyuan force to written down these 17% inventory, replace with spot crude oil from other source.

Hengyuan hedging position is limit to 25% of each month revenue. Therefore, if crack spread is leap up three time higher, its 25% hedging position will incur loss, but balance 75% revenue will reap handsome spot profit. Off course, the extend of 75% revenue gain will offset partly by 25% hedging loss, resulting hengyuan still able to reap at least 40% revenue enjoy current crack profit margin.

As the US nears its all-important summer driving season, refiners are gearing up to run as hard as they can — even as roadblocks from feedstock shortages to the upcoming hurricane season threaten to get in the way.

With hefty margins, strong demand and tight supply, the incentive is there to run close to full out this year. Tight supply is a main factor encouraging higher run rates

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/global-refiners-falter-efforts-keep-up-with-demand-2022-05-31/

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/us-crude-fuel-stockpiles-fall-tight-market-%E2%80%94-eia

The Company’s revenue grew by 22% for the quarter under review, driven by the drastic hike in the global
oil product price. Nevertheless, lower crack margin and decrease in stockholding gains as compared to 4Q
2021 affected the profitability.

Remark: Hengyuan already clearly indicate that its Q1 2022 result was lower than Q4 2021 due to dual factor, lower crack spread and lower stockholding gain.

Therefore, what will next Q2 result will be? with obviously hike more than 150% crack spread margin + additional bonus stockholding gain

Palm oil stock cannot perform not because of CPO price, but due to low crop production, windfall tax and high input fertiliser cost, low manpower.

He

For enquiries in regard to hengyuan business model including hedging, kindly email hengyuan or contact:
: +606 641 2000
: HRCPD-Corporate-Affairs@hrc.com.my

After Yinson-OR ease trading, Yinson price should recover next week onward to attract right subscription

Today share price weakness is last chance to accumulate as much as possible, to fully pack it in portfolio

Can fly

Time to buyback as kyy and otb have granted no to post new articles to promote hengyuan.

Time to buy now

Come back only after kyy pump and dump.

Almost ready to go......

Yes, i learnt bad experience with kyy in jaks. Therefore, i rectify position onward

kyy article is signal, even only target hengyuan, but somehow petroM will also get spill over adverse impact, when shark come, don fall become victim, stay away first, lets shark pump and dump, come back later.

kyy article is signal, when shark come, don fall become victim, lets shark pump and dump, come back later.

Repetition scenario happening, when kyy posted articles to promote, its right timing to exit first. Come back later

Repetition scenario happening, when kyy posted articles to promote, its right timing to exit first. Come back later

Continue to drag down by local, otherwise, just solely from Vietnam IPP, valuation will be higher. Next catayst is commission 50MW solar power next year and potential new renewal power project.

In additional, favourable legal outcome against star will be leap up for jaks

Steady profit from Vietnam Power plant.

Next Q will be higher as Vietnam power profit is USD denominated strengthen US, translating into higher RM profit

Hengyuan share price started to outperform in accord to crack spread widen begin 27 April. Please take note, Hengyuan performance is highly dependent to crack spread = profit margin rather than crude oil price or inventory gain.

The huge jump in profit margin = crack spread from USD 16 to USD 29, remain intact and will only reflect in next Q. Therefore, current elevated stock price will maintain ahead of next Q2 result. Crack spread is KEY profit determinant alike glove ASP. Take note, glove profit deriving force is ASP, not the feedstock holding

RON 97 retail price is RM 4.70

RON 95 retail price is RM 2.05 + Gov subsidy RM 2.45

ROM 97 retail price is RM 4.70

RON 95 retail price is RM 2.05 + Gov subsidy RM 2.45

Here is latest petrol price for Malaysia, it Clearly show even crude oil have stabilize around USD110, but, a significant hike in petrol price is happening now, wider the profit margin for refiner

https://ringgitplus.com/en/blog/petrol-credit-card/petrol-price-malaysia-live-updates-ron95-ron97-diesel.html

Here is latest petrol price for Malaysia, it Clearly show even crude oil have stabilize around USD110, but, a significant hike in petrol price is happening now, wider the profit margin for refiner

https://ringgitplus.com/en/blog/petrol-credit-card/petrol-price-malaysia-live-updates-ron95-ron97-diesel.html

Even as the price of crude oil continues to rise—raising the input costs for refiners—refined products prices have risen more, increasing the spread and beefing up the bottom line for refiners.

The crack spread is the difference between the price of crude oil and the price of refined products, which include gasoline, distillates, diesel, and jet fuel

Mr Sslee have quota example how gross refinery profit margin can be calaculated by taking one of the refiner product, gasoline as example as show below. Remark: Jet fuel profit margin is higher than gasoline
The retail price of RON97 petrol will be higher by 37 sen at RM4.70 per litre.
1 barrel equal to 159 liter.
Hence RON 97 is RM (4.70 x 159)= 747.30/ barrel
Usd to MYR 4.40
Hence 1 barrel of RON97 is USD(747.30/4.40) USD 169.8 / barrel.

Crude brent oil USD 112.5/ barrel.
Different RON 97 and Crude Brent oil is USD 57.3/ barrel.

These USD 57.3/barrel is gross profit margin, if take into operation cost, the profit margin will be USD 30/barrel = current crack spread

Even as the price of crude oil continues to rise—raising the input costs for refiners—refined products prices have risen more, increasing the spread and beefing up the bottom line for refiners.

The crack spread is the difference between the price of crude oil and the price of refined products, which include gasoline, distillates, diesel, and jet fuel

Mr Sslee have quota example how gross refinery profit margin can be calaculated by taking one of the refiner product, gasoline as example as show below. Remark: Jet fuel profit margin is higher than gasoline
The retail price of RON97 petrol will be higher by 37 sen at RM4.70 per litre.
1 barrel equal to 159 liter.
Hence RON 97 is RM (4.70 x 159)= 747.30/ barrel
Usd to MYR 4.40
Hence 1 barrel of RON97 is USD(747.30/4.40) USD 169.8 / barrel.

Crude brent oil USD 112.5/ barrel.
Different RON 97 and Crude Brent oil is USD 57.3/ barrel.

These USD 57.3/barrel is gross profit margin, if take into operation cost, the profit margin will be USD 30/barrel = current crack spread

Hengyuan and Petronm, both will record windfall profit due to expanding crack spread margin+ huge stockholding gain

Hengyuan and Petronm, both will record windfall profit due to expanding crack spread margin+ huge stockholding gain

PetronM is third largest retail petrol station, just short close to Shell. It have being most aggressive expansion as recent Malaysia increase petrol station are mostly monopoly by PetronM.

Petrol station offer PetronM steady income as retail selling petrol profit margin is highly protected by gov subsidy

Upcoming PetronM result will be both increase profit margin on refining and higher stockholding gain

PetronM increase crude storage capacity by ADDITIONAL 500,000 barrel in Q3 2021 is TIMELY, as its stockholding gain will be close and comparable to Hengyuan already