Hengyuan share price finally normalize back to pre-limit up level at RM 4.30. But, no hurry, still have 2 month time grace period to re enter back if cycle repeat that share price move up a week ahead before Q result release end of Nov.

In the meantime, just monitor closely crack spread for gasoline, gasoil and kerosene in next 2 month. The most important guide is whether gasoil and kerosene crack can sustain, or follow gasoline crack normalize back in next 2 month. Opt right timing to re-enter to avoid sudden reversal crack spread risk.

Banking is best stock selection in time of rising interest rate. Affin pending special dividend is major catayst to propell stock move above resistance level at RM 2.30

Banking is best stock selection in time of rising interest rate.

Interim dividend 15sen will be declared by end of month. RHB dividend yield 7%, is one of the highest among all stock listed in bursa.

bought RHB at 5.64

better focus on banking stock, every interest hike translate to higher net profit margin

Palm oil is commodity, pure commodity stock like TSH unable to fetch high valaution due to cyclical business nature

I know some of Indonesia planted land is actially co-share by their native people, profit is sharing under certain ratio and land is lease for only for 30 year.

Calvin

You mean TSH only sold just quarter of its kalimantan land only?

Calvin

TSH sold kalimantan land, wonder how many land areas still available near Indonesia new capital, can you highlight?

Preserve cash while awaiting right timing to re enter.

Time also needed to monitor sustainability crack spread for both gasoil and kerosene in next 2 month.

No hurry, still have 2 month time grace period to re enter back.

Confirmation petronM upcominv Q3 result can ascertain ahead via its holding company, petron corp which tend to announce beforehand.

Very soon, the payment date must before end of Dec 2022.. It left only 3 month for announcemnt

1. Annocement date special dividend: Sept/Oct
2. Ex-date for dividend: Nov
3. payment date: Dec

Once, BNM approve, Director can get more grant share, allow them to entitle special dividend

Director cleverly seek BNM approval to grant them incentive share before offcially declare special dividend.

bought litrak at 4.87-4.89

For trading purpose, TA first, second only FA. Follow chart and next 3 month crack spread before Q3 result, ample time to make decision before re-enter yea.

For trading purpose, TA first, second only FA. Follow chart and next 3 month crack spread before Q3 result, ample time to make decision before re-enter yea.

PetronM return back to below RM 5.00, likely hengyuan will follow too. Still have a lot time to decide whether re-enetr or gove up before Q3 result release.

In the interim, just monitor dayily crack spread for gasoline, dissel, jet fuel in next 3 month. If trend is reversal, time to re-enter back, but if trend continue downward, it time to give up. Stay sideline, enjoy all locked profit taken, await for oppurtunity to to return

PetronM return back to below RM 5.00, likely hengyuan will follow too. Still have a lot time to decide whether re-enetr or gove up before Q3 result release.

In the interim, just monitor dayily crack spread for gasoline, dissel, jet fuel in next 3 month. If trend is reversal, time to re-enter back, but if trend continue downward, it time to give up. Stay sideline, enjoy all locked profit taken, await for oppurtunity to to return

Will buyback on further weakness, to build back position later before Q3 result

Bad sentiment in oil market

Sold armanda at 40sen, locked profit.

Hengyuan, see you next Q3 to re-enter back

Locked profit, sold at 5.52-5.60

stockraider

Do you think Hengyuan is so nut to record pretax profit RM 900m and willing to paid RM 220m tax ??? Nonsense at all if hengyuan wan to manipulate account as it is legally and accounting right to no post unsettlement hedging loss in P&L, otherwise, hengyuan can save RM 220m tax paid. Unsettlement hedging contract can last till its expire date or opt early settlement once hedging position turn to gain due to decreasing crude oil

PetronM only paid RM 77m tax, in your view, petronM manipulate tax by temporary mark to market to avoid paid more tax loh!

Please comment based on fact, hengyuan tax paid to gov RM 220m is genius

Based on Q2 revenues and cost, hengyuan realize crack spread around USD 28, which in accord to average crack spread range from Mar to May crack for gasoline+ diesel + jet fuel. Hengyuan realize pretax profit RM 900m.

The next Q3 result comprises of crack spread june to Aug, average crack spread for gasoline + diesel + jet fuel is around USD38. Therefore, it can extimate than hengyuan upcoming Q3 pretax profit is RM 1.2 billion. EPS = RM 3

The hedging position will revert back from loss to gain as crude oil, feedstock cost, fallen from USD 135 in Q2 to USD 105 in Q3. Hengyuan NTA will booster significantly from RM 5.2 to + RM 3( from reversal hedging) + Q3 EPS RM 3 - - - - > total NTA for hengyuan RM 11

Hengyuan hedging contract will continue incur paper loss if crude oil trading in single upward direction.

It wil however, reverse hedging position into gain if crude oil reverse trend to downward.

Right timing to opt for early settlement in hedging position is normal part for pure refiner to mitigated fluctuations in feedstock crude oil

If you have hedging contract valid for 1 year, you need to account for fluctuations in hedging position loss/gain in your book value/nta.

It is only you opt for early settlement or end of 1 year contract settlement, record realize gain or loss in profit /loss account.

Hedging position have time period, hengyuan can make settlement earlier if hedging is in favour.

Therefore, Q2 hedging loss RM 1 billion is unfavourable to make settlement earlier as crude oil in Q2 trade as high as USD 135.

The hedging loss RM 1 billion is not classified in P&L as hedging is not reach settlement, just alike your stock portfolio now is in paper loss but you opt not to sell to realize loss, but in paper, your portfolio wealth have show decrease in NTA.

You can afford to wait just like hengyuan, until hedging position is in favor position like nect Q3, crude oil already decreade significantly from USD 135 to current USD 100, hedging position now become reverdal from loss RM 1 billion to gain, hengyuan can opt to settle hedging positon just alike you opt your cover short position in your stick portfolio. Once settlement reached, it will reflects in P&L

Based on revenue and cost, hengyuan only realize average crack spread USD 20 in Q2. The lower than expected spread is due to lagging effect of 1 month.

The next Q3 crack spread will take into accout highest crack spread happen in June >USD 35 and up till Aug which at current on average crack spread around USD29.

Next Q3 will also take into account lower crude oil, resulting reversal in hedging from loss to gain.

In short, the best result will only happen in Q3, EPS could double than current RM 2.2

NTA affected by outstanding hedging positon above 1 billion at loss hedging position for crude oil USD 151.

What will next Q3 result crude oil price now?

Current crude oil only at around USD 100, hengyuan stand to win very very big as heding loss position will becime hedging massive gain in next Q3 result

Agreed, next Q3 result will even better based on outstanding hedging position against current crack spread

NTA no a reflection as hedging position haven't closed yet.

Super happy Mederka day

Windfall profit

Hahaha

Coming Wednesday, RON 97 is expect to hike again

The federal government declared a regional emergency in the states of Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Wisconsin following a fire that broke out at a BP-owned refinery in Whiting, Indiana

What will likely crack spread for gasoline, diessel and jet fuel tomorrow!?

But, what confirm winner is - - - >hengyuan

the incident had affected the supply of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel across the four states, which prompted the emergency declaration. The four states get a quarter of their fuel supply from the Whiting refinery.

Winter sesaon is coming, Euope rush to souce more oil particluarly diessel as althernative to fire up power due to lack of gaas supply

In 2020, Malaysia exported $15.9B in Refined Petroleum, making it the 9th largest exporter of Refined Petroleum in the world. At the same year, Refined Petroleum was the 2nd most exported product in Malaysia. The main destination of Refined Petroleum exports from Malaysia are: Singapore ($5.63B), China ($1.61B), Indonesia ($1.28B), Hong Kong ($1.13B), and Australia ($1.12B).

The fastest growing export markets for Refined Petroleum of Malaysia between 2019 and 2020 were Hong Kong ($387M), China ($255M), and United States ($167M).

Q result will out today, grab back oppprtunity today on weeakness

I think Hengyuan result should much bettter than PetronM, concentrate capital bought back all hengyuan

bought back hengyuan at 5.30-5.40

No many stock can offer 10 year earning forward with CONFIRM increasing profit through decreasing interests expense, and after 3 year become net cash position.

These 10 year profits visibility only based on existing orderbook. Any new secure contact forward is additional plus profit and prolong earnings visibility longer than 10 year forward

Armanda Q result clearly show consistent earning without any effect y crude oil price up or down

Orderbook and extension total RM 22 billion, offer profit visibility 10x forward, allow armanda become NET CASH position after 3 year later.

Any new contract win is another catayst

Focus now is continue pare down debt every quarter, boosting EPS through decreasing interest expense.

By next year, debt level will trim down below 1x, paying dividend via payout ratio 25% become affordable or least 4.5sen.

Next Q result, armanda will record EPS > 4sen above, and EPS will on uptrending due to lower interest expense, trim debt ever quarter.