seeing the arguments had been weakened, he is now trying to cover his ass

newbie Flinstones really has a lot to learn


Posted by Flintstones > Jan 21, 2019 06:53 PM | Report Abuse

Stockraider, I like QL business. Not the stock at P/E 50. Big difference between liking a business and liking a stock

one of Mr. Long's main reasons for justifying QL's 50 times PER is that it managed to grow its revenue by 140% from RM1.5 bil in 2009 to RM3.6 bil in 2018, and that its net profit grew from RM100 mil in 2009 to RM205 mil in 2018 (increase 100%)

THAT, is attributed by Long to moat

take a look at Johotin lah

In 2009, its revenue was RM100 mil. In 2018, its revenue RM400 mil. A 300% increase !!!

In 2009, its net profit was RM5 mil. In 2018, its net profit was RM25 mil. A 400% increase !!!

Did the market give it 50 times PER ? Nope, 14 times PER (which I think is fair)

In 2009, Johotin has borrowings of RM30 mil. In 2018, it has net cash of RM50 mil (despite revenue growing by multiple folds).

by any measures, Johotin has done much much better than QL

if QL has moat, I think Johotin has a canal to protect it

if QL deserves 50 times PER, maybe Johotin deserves 500 times PER ?

moat ? come on lah

the way I look at it is that QL is mispriced

it doesn't deserve 50 times PER

jaga it closely, don't be complacent

ok, enough of QL for me. I am saturated

I have avoided visiting QL thread, but QL ended up coming to visit me

I want to run away also cannot

LOL

you are not being consistent loh (mimicking Raider). You say you like Buffett companies. Buffett companies got moat loh. Companies that have moat don't gear up like crazy loh.

and QL gear up like crazy.

how can it be good ?

it has no moat. Longkang it has


Posted by 3iii > Jan 21, 2019 06:42 PM | Report Abuse

QL is a good company.

It has grown its segmental businesses consistently over the years. That is a great achievement.

Its surimi business is god-send. Harvesting the products of the sea and making great profits with high ROA and ROE.

Its poultry business is better than the other related companies in the same industry. Capital intensive but growing profits.

Its palm oil business should be fine, though its ROC is probably the lower of the segments.

It has embarked on Family Mart. I have no deep knowledge of this. Will be keeping a good eye on this business, in particular its return on invested capital.

Its first 3 segments generate good profits (almost 300m) and good cash flows. Its capital expenditure is sizable (unlike Nestle, which I still like, though growth is slower than QL in the last decade). Its FCF is presently negative and its borrowings can be anticipated to grow due to its aggressive expansion of Family Mart and also its dividends provision.

Nevertheless, once the business is set up and in place, the higher earnings and profits generated will more than offset the loans incurred.

This company can still grow its business segments. Its penetration into the neighbouring countries over the next few years will be interesting and generate more growth. As was mentioned, it should be good as long as the return on capital is greater than its cost of capital.

Its valuation is high for now. Either the price has to correct or the price might stagnate awaiting the earnings to catch up.

you can trade chicken stock when raw mat is low

but you can't hold for long term

especially at 50 times PER

I know chicken business better than anybody else. It is a shit business. Totally no moat due to ow entry barrier.

You thought only QL can do it ah ? I can raise chicken at home you know ?

Quite the opposite. Selling chicken and eggs are the most compkicated business in the world. Bird flu, raw material fluctuation, lack of pricing power, risk of oversupply due to Low entry barrier, etc. It is the worst kind of business you can imagine


Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 21, 2019 05:58 PM | Report Abuse

And as for my 10 year investment in ql? Selling eggs and chickens is a very simple business to understand.

Very heated debate

X P

want to see moat ? go and check out Nestle

In dec 2008, it made RM400 mil net profit, net borrowings RM82 mil

In September 2018, it made RM800 mil net profit, net borrowings RM208 mil

THAT, my friend, is moat

maybe a small longkang it has

definitely no moat

QL is at best an ordinary company, no way it has moat

if QL is indeed such a good company, why would its net borrowings increased from RM376 mil in December 2008 to RM914 mil in 2018 ?

its ROE is about 10%, quite reasonable, I would say. But that was arrived at based on huge gearing

how much longer can it do that ? the company is growing itself into bankruptcy

is this the kind of company that Buffett will own ?

come on lah...

when corn price goes up, chicken bleed instead of lay eggs

chicken business is chicken business lah, when bird flu comes, the chicken die

period

Plus a lot of self congratulations

All cut and paste

QL a bit tough

But of course 3iii can accept

From the way he mimic Buffett you know he is not capable of independent thinking

Dutch Lady can accept

Nestle I can still accept 50 times PER

Sell chicken sell eggs 50 times PER ? Just look at what happens to Pos Malaysia

Everyday talks warren Buffett won't make you rich like warren Buffett

Tak ngam tak beli

And come very often

The ideas will come

Read until you find something

Banyak effort required

Read Everyday extensively

No wonder Flinstones comments all directly from textbook

He doesn't play stocks (his own confession)

No real battlefield experience

Now I know

Tapioca price came down a lot

http://www.thaitapiocastarch.org/en/information/statistics/weekly_tapioca_starch_price/2018

I don't even want to discuss Philips and his QL

It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma

When something is so complicated and unfathomable, I don't even want to go near it

You guys can gather around that thread to argue, endorse or condemn, I don't even want to know the details or have anything to do with it

That is how I feel about Philips and his QL

Don't go all over the place. Focus on managing reinvestment risk

How can you reduce it ?

You figure out this part, you have the key to unlimited riches

Icon has always been very good at doing one particular thing. Now icon has found the second missing parts. Only the two put together can generate sustainable return indefinitely

In 2016, icon is a good car, in 2019 he gets his petrol. So the car can finally move



qqq3
7389 posts
Posted by qqq3 > Jan 21, 2019 02:09 PM | Report Abuse

so does this mean Icon has evolved from the Icon I found in 2016?

Wrong !!! Obsession with moat spawns and breeds Monster and mutants belief as in QL case. Sell eggs sell chicken sell sandwiches is moat ? Deserves 50 times PER ? It is exactly the obsession of moat that give birth to such nonsenses !!!

Forget about moat !!! Or you will be blinded and wander around in lonely wilderness lost of direction

Give you a hint : be a contrarian . Learn to accomodate changing landscape. You have the basic already. Delve deeper

(I am so fond of my new found strategy I am guarding it jealously)


Posted by qqq3 > Jan 21, 2019 02:08 PM | Report Abuse

(99.99% do not have moat)

then find the 0.01% that do by le

Exactly !!! Reinvestment risk is the key word. I have found the way to substantially attenuate it. That is why it is a Eureka moment. The missing piece of the jigsaw puzzle has finally fallen in place for me.

That is why I joyfully and proudly announce the birth of my investment strategy !!!

qqq3, have you found your investment strategy ? You better find yours, otherwise you can’t go far.

I have found mine, I have found mine !!!

3iii, I found my investment strategy already

All the kinks had been ironed out

I now have a workable solution for generating sustainable portfolio return indefinitely

Because of that, I officially announce the demise and irrelevance of your investment strategy. It is too austere, inflexible and unsuitable for Malaysia stocks (99.99% do not have moat)

Warren Buffett will die in Malaysia. His stuffs don’t work here. You better follow mine.

3iii, I found my investment strategy already

All the kinks had been ironed out

I now have a workable solution for generating sustainable portfolio return indefinitely

Because of that, I officially announce the demise and irrelevance of your investment strategy. It is too austere, inflexible and unsuitable for Malaysia stocks (99.99% do not have moat)

Warren Buffett will die in Malaysia. His stuffs don’t work here. You better follow mine.

the worst is over for Ewint

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/20/mps-to-ambush-may-with-amendments-to-stop-no-deal-brexit

LOL

it is not easy to study him

evertime I read his thread, I got to go up and pee every 5 minutes, just to keep myself awake

up until now, I finished 1.5 pages only

what is happening between 3iii and me ?

First of all, this is nothing new. Since 2015, I have been closely examining almost all the prominent personalities in i3, to figure out their investment strategies, whether it makes sense, whether there is anything we can learn from them.

I have studied OTB.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/89029.jsp

I have studied Uncle Koon

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/89122.jsp

I have studied KC Chong

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/icon8888/99028.jsp

I am now studying 3iii.

Instead of imposing judgment on 3iii like what Flinstones does (based on an isolated case Hengyuan), I choose to be more scientific by doing proper research. That is why recently I am circling 3iii like an eagle circling a prey. I want to know him better.

From preliminary interactions, I have already identified certain weaknesses (dogmatism is one of his biggest sin). But his investment philosophy also carries a lot of useful concepts. I am learning a lot from them.

In short, there is no quarrel between me and 3iii. I am just conducting a study of him. And the findings of my study will be made available to everybody in i3 through my articles.

in that case, you are really like ks55, an outsider who does not dare to get involved

I have a different opinion from you when come to stocks. My past experience tells me that stock market offers amazing and abundant opportunities to create wealth. But the trick is how to get it to work. That is what I am doing all this while. To try to understand what others are doing. To figure out what has been preached is right, what is wrong. What are the areas that can be improved, etc.

Of course, you are different. By your own confession, you have no luck in the market. That is probably the reason behind the "personality clash" between me and you. I have a positive view on the market, while you and ks55 are cynical about it. We are like chicken and duck.

As for 3iii, I have ample respect for him. But there is apparent flaw in the way he look at investment. I am examining him carefully, before arriving at a final judgement.

That is different from you, who comes in and quote the Hengyuan case and give 3iii the stamp of approval.

That is why I say it is not good to be judgemental. You need to examine the nuances to find out more.

=================


Flintstones Icon8888, I am not a person who feeds on attention like you. I am very happy with myself. To me, i3 is an outlet to have fun. It would be madness to take things too seriously over here.

I am never a good investor. Just like you who only had one lucky winner in Airasia after contributing multiple articles. I can write beautiful articles too but I chose to spend more time with family.

Not to mention about your latest very successful investment in an IPP. I wouldnt like to touch on it as I might ruffle some feathers here.

Is this investment going to come good? Good luck and all the best.
21/01/2019 09:57

3iii, don't be so cocky and bully my bro probability, wait for my explanation of you

give me 15 minutes to half an hour to formulate my response

very similar to ks55

Flinstones went around the forum passing judgement on others

but never contribute investment ideas

in other word, a lot of empty talks

that is my impression

Just kidding lah

My pleasure you drop by

I also always went over to your thread (most of the time to abuse you )

3iii stop polluting my thread with your Buffett thingy

X P

Thumb up

I like the bashing. It will make him better

Ah mah kau jai




Posted by Connie555 > Jan 20, 2019 10:52 PM | Report Abuse

He cannot lar, he flip roti canai better...a while say he won't share out his 5k analysis on RCE then after that also post....know how to condemn people's analysis saying people collected only post their article, but while he is comdemning other people he is also owning Rce yet posting his 5k RCE analysis....what kind of people is this?

I think it is better for him to be a politician than become an investor because politician also always flip roti canai...period.

Need older photo

Otherwise lack credibility, How to push up your stock ?

Haha just kidding

photo too young